Three postponed games yesterday. Wigan won at 12/5 to give up a miniscule profit on the evening. I'm away tomorrow so will put the New Year's Eve games up early.
Aston Villa to beat Arsenal 5pts at 5/1 (I've been opposing Arsenal away most of the season and have no intention of stopping now)
Spurs to beat Newcastle 5pts at Evens (similarly I've been opposing Newcastle away most of the season and have no intention of stopping now)
Peterborough (away) to beat Northampton 5pts at 7/2
Ipswich to beat Luton 5pts at 11/8
I also follow the notion that teams who have only had one full day's rest between games have it all to do. This picks out Wycombe and Orient on Saturday. I will lay both teams and have a double on their opponents. Recording the lay bets on here is too complicated, so I'll stick to the win bet:
2pts win double Notts Co and Bristol Rovers.
Running totals for blog:
total bets: 13
total wins: 7
points out: 70
points returned: 67.5
% return: 96%
points in play: 33
Thursday, December 29, 2005
Wednesday, December 28, 2005
Lexus Chase - Leopardstown
Wednesday 28th December:
Lexus Chase - 2:35 leopardstown:
Beef or Salmon 5/4
War of Attrition 3/1
Hedgehunter 6/1
Some horses seem to win every time you oppose them and lose every time you back them. The first time this happened to me it was with Red Rum as a child. I backed Churchtown Boy and Crisp to be second and backed Red Rum the times he placed instead of won. In fact, with due respect, I hated the horse!
In later years Persian Punch was the same.
However, there are other horses who have the blessing to win when the money's down and lose when it's not.
Sergeant Cecil, Atavus, and Bradbury Star my own perfect examples.
Beef or Salmon is one of my good guys. That is, I've never actually backed the horse, but so far he's always lost when I've wanted him to. Today, though, is the biggest test. This is his race. I wouldn't usually oppose him in it. However, Hedgehunter has been nibbled at in the Gold Cup ante post markets for weeks now. If there's any substance then today he has to show it. Plus, there's every chance he could get a soft lead and jump them silly.
Hedgehunter 10pts win at 9/1 (guaranteed).
Lexus Chase - 2:35 leopardstown:
Beef or Salmon 5/4
War of Attrition 3/1
Hedgehunter 6/1
Some horses seem to win every time you oppose them and lose every time you back them. The first time this happened to me it was with Red Rum as a child. I backed Churchtown Boy and Crisp to be second and backed Red Rum the times he placed instead of won. In fact, with due respect, I hated the horse!
In later years Persian Punch was the same.
However, there are other horses who have the blessing to win when the money's down and lose when it's not.
Sergeant Cecil, Atavus, and Bradbury Star my own perfect examples.
Beef or Salmon is one of my good guys. That is, I've never actually backed the horse, but so far he's always lost when I've wanted him to. Today, though, is the biggest test. This is his race. I wouldn't usually oppose him in it. However, Hedgehunter has been nibbled at in the Gold Cup ante post markets for weeks now. If there's any substance then today he has to show it. Plus, there's every chance he could get a soft lead and jump them silly.
Hedgehunter 10pts win at 9/1 (guaranteed).
Tuesday, December 27, 2005
Football matches - Wednesday 28th Dec
Three wins from the 6 matches on Boxing Day - modest return. Here's another 6 for Wednesday:
Wigan (away) to beat West Ham 5 points at 12/5
Everton to beat Liverpool (!) 3pts at 9/2
Everton/Liverpool - no goalscorer 2pts at 9/1
Plymouth to beat Preston 5 pts at 7/4
Southampton to beat Sheff Utd 5pts at 7/4
Mk Dons to beat Nottingham Forest 5pts at 7/4
Boston to beat Carlisle 5pts at 11/8
Settled bets for blog:
Total bets: 6
Total wins: 3
Points out: 30
Points returned: 35.5
% return: 118%
Points in play: 41
Wigan (away) to beat West Ham 5 points at 12/5
Everton to beat Liverpool (!) 3pts at 9/2
Everton/Liverpool - no goalscorer 2pts at 9/1
Plymouth to beat Preston 5 pts at 7/4
Southampton to beat Sheff Utd 5pts at 7/4
Mk Dons to beat Nottingham Forest 5pts at 7/4
Boston to beat Carlisle 5pts at 11/8
Settled bets for blog:
Total bets: 6
Total wins: 3
Points out: 30
Points returned: 35.5
% return: 118%
Points in play: 41
Saturday, December 24, 2005
Two long-term bets - Preston and Hayley Turner
Preston:
Bet365 have a market on the Championship, betting without Reading and Sheff Utd. My ratings have Preston as the third best team in the division, and I'm not alone in that. The excellent Alex Deacon's ratings in Racing and Football Outlook also have Preston third-best rated. Their current placing down in the chasing pack can be put down to too many draws at home. Should they start converting these into wins then they're bound to be competitive.
12/1 (quarter odds 1,2,3) looks a decent price. 3pts each way.
Hayley Turner:
Hayley is great for racing. Let's get behind her for 2006.
Sporting Odds offer 7/4 that she rides 25 winners or more over the year. Plainly they expect her to disappear now she's lost her claim. Let's bet that doesn't happen. She got loads of rides in December and rode a few winners to boot. The top 70 jockeys or so ride 25 winners in a year and she certainly should be in the top 70. I'm not sure if she is off to Dubai as she was last year. Hopefully not, and she'll kick home a few winners over the rest of the all weather season and have sorted this bet out by mid-summer!!
5pts at 7/4
Running Totals for blog:
Total bets: 0
Total wins: 0
Points out: 0
Points returned: 0
%Return: 0
Points in play: 41
Bet365 have a market on the Championship, betting without Reading and Sheff Utd. My ratings have Preston as the third best team in the division, and I'm not alone in that. The excellent Alex Deacon's ratings in Racing and Football Outlook also have Preston third-best rated. Their current placing down in the chasing pack can be put down to too many draws at home. Should they start converting these into wins then they're bound to be competitive.
12/1 (quarter odds 1,2,3) looks a decent price. 3pts each way.
Hayley Turner:
Hayley is great for racing. Let's get behind her for 2006.
Sporting Odds offer 7/4 that she rides 25 winners or more over the year. Plainly they expect her to disappear now she's lost her claim. Let's bet that doesn't happen. She got loads of rides in December and rode a few winners to boot. The top 70 jockeys or so ride 25 winners in a year and she certainly should be in the top 70. I'm not sure if she is off to Dubai as she was last year. Hopefully not, and she'll kick home a few winners over the rest of the all weather season and have sorted this bet out by mid-summer!!
5pts at 7/4
Running Totals for blog:
Total bets: 0
Total wins: 0
Points out: 0
Points returned: 0
%Return: 0
Points in play: 41
Friday, December 23, 2005
Betting Bank
I record all bets here as 'points'.
Actual sums of money are somewhat immaterial. I started with £250 in a horse racing fund some ten years ago. I grew this to £2oooo. Some friends joined me in my fun and we started going for both capital growth and income. I have had 3 losing seasons in the horse racing fund over the last 16 seasons.
In general terms my season's strategy is to turnover each fund 10 times, earn 110% returns on turnover, and so essentially double the fund size. I then take most of this in income in the form of dividends and re-invest the rest to increase stakes for the following year.
A few years ago I set up a sports fund with some other friends, and latterly a 'trading' fund for certain Betfair markets. Next year I'm starting a specific golf fund with one of the sports friends. My friends are minor investors (no fees!). It's useful for me:
1) Because this is a lonely job and it's nice to share the highs and lows with others.
2) Because it keeps me honest. I have to announce all bets prior to events.
3) Because having to do the above makes me think twice before being completely idiotic (well sometimes).
I run them all the same way - essentially as a Unit Trust - with a fund price.
When I bet, I bet a proportion of my fund per event. This is decided at the start of each season for the fund - eg start of flat/jumps racing season for the horse racing fund, or start of football season for sports fund.
10 points is equivalent to 1.5% of my horse racing fund.
Actual sums of money are somewhat immaterial. I started with £250 in a horse racing fund some ten years ago. I grew this to £2oooo. Some friends joined me in my fun and we started going for both capital growth and income. I have had 3 losing seasons in the horse racing fund over the last 16 seasons.
In general terms my season's strategy is to turnover each fund 10 times, earn 110% returns on turnover, and so essentially double the fund size. I then take most of this in income in the form of dividends and re-invest the rest to increase stakes for the following year.
A few years ago I set up a sports fund with some other friends, and latterly a 'trading' fund for certain Betfair markets. Next year I'm starting a specific golf fund with one of the sports friends. My friends are minor investors (no fees!). It's useful for me:
1) Because this is a lonely job and it's nice to share the highs and lows with others.
2) Because it keeps me honest. I have to announce all bets prior to events.
3) Because having to do the above makes me think twice before being completely idiotic (well sometimes).
I run them all the same way - essentially as a Unit Trust - with a fund price.
When I bet, I bet a proportion of my fund per event. This is decided at the start of each season for the fund - eg start of flat/jumps racing season for the horse racing fund, or start of football season for sports fund.
10 points is equivalent to 1.5% of my horse racing fund.
Boxing Day - Football
I use my a combination of my own ratings and someone else's to arrive at what I believe to be 'value' prices for football matches. Over the last couple of seasons these bets have achieved 115% returns on turnover. To be honest the most important thing by far is getting the best price (usually a stand-out best price).
Boxing Day Matches:
Brighton to beat QPR 5pts at 6/4
Ipswich to beat Crystal Palace 5pts at 7/4
Watford to beat Southampton 5pts at 7/5
Nottingham Forest to beat Doncaster 5pts at 6/5
Chester (away) to beat Cheltenham 5pts at 11/5
Notts Co (away) to beat Oxford 5pts at 2/1
Running Totals for blog:
Total bets: 0
Total wins: 0
Points out: 0
Points returned: 0
%Return: 0
Points in play: 30
Boxing Day Matches:
Brighton to beat QPR 5pts at 6/4
Ipswich to beat Crystal Palace 5pts at 7/4
Watford to beat Southampton 5pts at 7/5
Nottingham Forest to beat Doncaster 5pts at 6/5
Chester (away) to beat Cheltenham 5pts at 11/5
Notts Co (away) to beat Oxford 5pts at 2/1
Running Totals for blog:
Total bets: 0
Total wins: 0
Points out: 0
Points returned: 0
%Return: 0
Points in play: 30
Thursday, December 22, 2005
King George - Sandown - Boxing Day
Tissue:
Kicking King 5/2
Kingscliff 7/2
Ollie Magern 8/1
Impek 8/1
L'Ami 12/1
Royal Auclair 14/1
Cornish Rebel 20/1
Monkerhostin 20/1
Overview:
Race revolves around Kicking King of course. If the real thing turns up my price looks pretty silly. However there's enough doubts to be cautious with the pricing. After all I don't actually have to lay any 5/2.
There doesn't actually appear to be a bet to be had at current prices. I have Royal Auclair and Monkerhostin in the bag each way at 20s and 33s and guess that will do me.
No bet.
Kicking King 5/2
Kingscliff 7/2
Ollie Magern 8/1
Impek 8/1
L'Ami 12/1
Royal Auclair 14/1
Cornish Rebel 20/1
Monkerhostin 20/1
Overview:
Race revolves around Kicking King of course. If the real thing turns up my price looks pretty silly. However there's enough doubts to be cautious with the pricing. After all I don't actually have to lay any 5/2.
There doesn't actually appear to be a bet to be had at current prices. I have Royal Auclair and Monkerhostin in the bag each way at 20s and 33s and guess that will do me.
No bet.
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