Football - Saturday 1st April

Bolton 5pts beat Man Utd at 100/30

Plymouth 5pts beat Wolves at 7/4

Southampton 5pts beat Cardiff at 6/4

Chesterfield 5pts beat Nottingham Forest at 15/8

Mansfield 5pts beat Oxford at 11/10

Golf - Bell South and Portugal

This week's golf bets:


Bell South
1pt ew JB Holmes at 60/1
1pt ew Stenson at 25/1 (not a good price but he owes us nothing)
1pt ew Oberholser at 40/1



Portugal
1pt ew Brian Davis at 25/1 (I like players from US Tour 'dropping in class' to European tour)
1pt ew Oliver Wilson at 80/1 (last chance!)

Running Totals - 28 March

I was just updating my spreadsheets and tallied my overall breakdown against my breakdown for separate types of bets, and noticed they didn't match. I had overlooked Chantelle's Big Brother victory, and as such have been under-selling myself!

I also thought it would be useful to keep running totals on here based on separate types of sports, so you can see what to take notice of and what to avoid!

Don't forget the racing bets are mainly over on www.escorialracing.co.uk, and are showing 115% returns for this jumps season with only a fortnight or so remaining.

I'll do a posting like this at the end of each month as opposed to continually updating.



Football
Points Out: 443
Returns: 495.12
% Returns: 114%


Golf
Points Out: 122
Returns: 104.68
% Returns: 86%


Racing
Points Out: 22
Returns: 12
% returns: 55%


Others
Points Out: 24
Returns: 63
% Returns: 262%


OVERALL
Points Out: 611
Returns: 674.8
% Returns: 110%


Summary
The overall returns are exactly on target.

Football bets rely on stealing the pick of the prices. I can't stress enough to anyone thinking of following these bets the importance of getting at least the price I have obtained. The margins in match betting are incredibly tight and you have no chance of profiting from this advice unless you do get the best prices.

The golf bets rely on a few big winners for their profitability. I do bet quite a lot in-running, and I was going to include those bets on here, but it's too much of a pain to keep updated when the action is coming thick and fast. So, I'm not worried by the position, just looking for that 100/1 winner that smashes me into profit!

Mid-week Football 28th March

Forget Europe, here's another couple of lower league matches to get involved in.


MK Dons 5pts beat Brentford at 9/4 (shade higher betfair). No apologies for going after Brentford again, and a friend who is a Southend season ticket holder was very impressed with MK Dons when they beat Southend the other week. The bet was initially ratings-inspired though

Rochdale 5pts beat Barnet at 11/10

Weekend Football - March 25th

Here we go again: I'm happy that I've picked off decent prices and that's the main thing.


Derby 5pts beat Crystal Palace at 2/1

Ipswich 5pts beat Hull at 5/6

Preston 5pts beat Plymouth at 5/6

Gillingham (again!) 5pts beat Swansea at 2/1

Swindon 5pts beat Chesterfield at 6/4

Grand National - ante post

I seem to have a pretty full portfolio here already. However, I looked at the race afresh after yesterday's declaration stage, and found it relatively easy to whittle the field down. Here's the tissue I idly came up with - going a very conservative 50%ish on my shortlist.


Clan Royal 12/1
Sir Rembrandt 14/1
Garvivonian 14/1
Numbersixvalverde 14/1
Jack High 14/1
Hedgehunter 20/1
Cornish rebel 20/1
Innox 20/1
Lord of Illusion 25/1


The Irish trio nestling at the bottom of the handicap really stand out. I'd take them all whilst the prices survive.


Garvivonian 4pts win at 33/1
Jack High 4pts win at 25/1
Numbersixvalverde 4pts win at 16/1

Golf - Madeira and TPC

Darren Clarke kept us alive last week.


Madeira Open:
Ferrie 1pt ew at 40/1
O. Wilson half point ew at 66/1
Derksen half point ew at 28/1


TPC
Singh 1pt win at 16/1
Donald 1pt ew at 22/1
Zach Johnson half point ew at 80/1
Stenson half point ew at 100/1
Verplank 1pt place at 8/1

Midweek Football - 21 March

With my confidence in the ratings at a season low, I hesitate to put these up. However, two of them I can see as 'hedges' given my positions on Bretford and Grimsby in the outright markets.


Gillingham 5pts beat Brentford at 3/1

Walsall 5pts beat Yeovil at 11/10

Rochdale 5pts beat Grimsby at 11/5





Running totals for blog:
Total points out: 551
Points returned: 532.3
% Return 97% (boy could we do with some winners)
Points in long-term play 40

Champions League and UEFA Cup

I already have positions on both these tournaments. Not very good ones to be honest. Schalke are all that remain of the tatters of my UEFA cup portfolio. The Champions League still provide a big big win on Lyon, plus Villareal.

I have a system that grinds out profits year after year based on picking of pirces at quarter final stages of virtually any sporting event. I applied them to these tournaments, and may as well add the selections on here, even if the earlier bets were placed before the life of the blog.


Champions League
Barcelona 8pts win 2/1
Arsenal 2pts win at 11/1


UEFA Cup
Middlesborough 6pts win at 9/2
Zenit St Petersburg 4pts win at 10s

Football - Weekend March 18th

As usual:


Birmingham 5pts beat Spurs at 5/2

Darlington 5pts beat Carlisle at 9/5 (even if Carlisle have scored 16 goals in last 5 games)

Newcastle 5pts beat Liverpool at 2/1

TCL and Bay Hill golf

Just time out from a truly astonishing day at Cheltenham with antepost vouchers flying in all over the place to post up the golf bets for the week. Football may be a bit later as I can't find time for it just now, and may have a hangover tomorrow!



(Bets placed Monday night so prices may have changed - sorry)

TCL
McGinley 1pt win 12/1
Casey 1pt win 12/1
Dougherty 1pt win 14/1
Srirot half point ew 80/1


Bay Hill
Els 1pt ew at 16/1
Zach Johnson half point ew at 50/1
Adam Scott half point ew at 25/1
Darren Clarke half point ew at 66/1
Montgomerie - top European 1pt at 18/1

Cheltenham

Just a reminder that you can find my thoughts on Cheltenham daily (for free) at:


www.escorialracing.co.uk



Let's hope we do better there than we have been with the football of late!




Running totals for blog:
Points out: 518
Points returned: 523.55
% Returns: 101% (clinging on!)
Points in play 40

Football - Friday March 10th etc

I'll keep plugging away, waiting for the tide to turn.

Friday
Hartlepool 5pts beat Huddersfield at 2/1

MK Dons 5pts beat Bristol City at 7/4


Sunday
Middlesborough (away) 5pts beat Charlton at 5/2

Golf - Honda and Singapore

A bit galling that Villegas places the only time this year I haven't tipped him!!


Singapore
Srirot 1pt ew at 66/1
Kapur 1pt ew at 28/1
Plaphol 1pt ew at 100/1


Honda Classic
Petterson 1pt ew at 50/1
Bubba Watson 1pt ew at 80/1
Charles Howell 1pt ew at 66/1

Football - Tuesday March 7th

Right, let's see if all that regression work on the ratings has helped.


Swindon 5pts beat Tranmere at 6/4








Running totals for blog:
Points out: 486
Points returned: 508.55
% Returns: 105%
Points in play: 45

Football - Saturday March 4th

As per usual, following the ratings. Taking on some of the supposed bigger teams in the lower divisions, remaining convinced that the differences between the teams are much smaller than the oddsmakers suggest.


Fulham 5pts beat Arsenal at 9/4 (the notion of my Fulham being a mere 9/4 to beat Arsenal is frankly unthinkable, and now I've gone and called it value!)

Barnsley 5pts beat Swansea at 5/4

Boston 5pts beat Northampton at 9/5

Lincoln (away) 5pts beat Carlisle at 100/30

Stockport (away) 5pts beat Peterborough at 4/1