Tuesday 31st football

A couple of Championship matches to get stuck into.


Luton 5pts beat Burnley at 6/4

Preston 5pts beat Leeds at 5/6
(looks a big overreaction to Denis Wise to me).

Strictly Come Dancing

This is turning into a very interesting betting event (seriously!).

It looks like being the first time the professional dancers become significant vote catchers in their own right. Two in particular: Anton who partners the pretty hopeless Jan, and Brendan who has set up a pantomime duo with Claire (disguising the fact they are actually pretty good).

I can see these two pairs causing mayhem in the eviction voting for a while yet. I'll be laying Jan at odds on for eviction this week. The front three in the betting are all Ok and I'm onside with Emma and Mark, but they are nowhere near as good as the favourites of previous years, and all are vulnerable if the public voting is as skewed as I think. So I reckon there's a decent chance, if they maintain their current persona as the naughty/dirty couple, that Claire/Brendan could sneak the final. I've bought them at 3 on the spreads in case.

Tuesday 31st October

Tissue for Exeter 2:40

Racing Demon 4/1
Chilling Place 4/1
Dempsey 9/2
Impek 7/1
Hoo La Baloo 9/1
Jacks Craic 12/1

Was expecting 8s on Chilling Place, until the world jumped on board. Have to settle for a reduced bet at 6s. Ladbrokes going 7/1 about Jacks Craic was a headscratcher and an eye opener.


Chilling Place 6pts win at 6/1
Jacks Craic 2pts win at 16/1

Racing - Saturday 28th October

Plenty of bets - could be poor by tonight!

Newmarket 3:10
Bahia Breeze 3pts ew at 12/1
(nice ew shape to race with very short fave and plenty not sorted by race conditions.)


Ascot 1:10
Demi Beau 6pts win at 6/1
(As long as doesn't get caught in speed duel, looks good price against very short fave - priced at 4/1 personally).


Ascot 2:10
Ballycassidy 3pts win at 10/1
Zabenz 3pts win at 10/1
(will only bet if Ollie Magern runs as he makes the book for me)


Ascot 3:20
Enhancer 9pts win at 5/2
(as long as all four run).


Wetherby 2:20
Kinburn 4pts win at 10/3
(I have him in as fave at 11/4 over Roman Ark)


Wetherby 3;25
Iris Gift 3pts win at 8/1 (yes, I know, must be mad)
Royal Emperor 5pts win at 10/1
(hope he's primed for this, looks nicely weighted on a track that suits)


Wetherby 5:10
According to Pete 6pts win at 11/4
(looks a solid fave)

Football weekend 28th October

Seven matches this week.


Fulham 5pts beat Wigan at 11/10

Birmingham 5pts beat West Brom at 6/4

Hull 5pts beat Sunderland at 7/4

Leeds 5pts beat Southend at Evens

Gillingham 5pts beat Carlisle at 5/4

Bournemouth (away) 5pts beat Tranmere at 4/1

Hartlepool 5pts beat Darlington at 6/5

Lingfield 26th October

Lingfield 3:50
Antique 3pts win at 12/1 guaranteed
Khalua Kiss 3pts win at 14/1 guaranteed
(this looks a wide open event to me - I originally went 7/1 each of seven! - so am playing the prices)



Lingfield 4:20
Lake Toya 6pts win at 11/4
(looks the first legitimate fave of the year, just needs to be fit and well).

Cheltenham Weds 25th October

A nice winner yesterday - let's hope for more of the same.

Cheltenham 3:55
Darby Wall 8pts win at 9/2
(Irish raider, had as favourite on my tissue at 3/1 - glad to see Corals agree even if nobody else does!)


Cheltenham
Warpath 4pts win at 16/1
(Obviously not fancied by connections, expecting something more favourably weighted to improve, but I'm not keen on those expected to do so).


Cheltenham
Openide 4pts win at 4/1 (or as close as)
(Penalty and jumps low, but in what looks close to a match, 4/1 too big against a first timer, no matter how highly regarded)

Volvo Masters Golf

Last tournament of the season for Europe - thanks God.


Casey 1pt ew at 16/1
Stenson 1pt ew at 22/1
Dyson 1pt ew at 80/1

Cheltenham - Tuesday

I'm going to start putting my main horse racing bets up here, as well as escorialracing, where you can also get my tissue. It's my start of the jumps season today.

Cheltenham 2:45
Backstage 6pts win at 15/2
(that looks a mighty weight allowance, and priced at 9/2 against the two big stables)

Cheltenham 4:30
Sento 6pts win at 16/1
(will wait to check doesn't get upset in prelims, and obviously priced up wrong at 7/1, but looks too long)

Cheltenham 5:05
Magical Legend 4pts at 6/1
(being backed, the front two look far too short, and this drop back to 2m could be the key - priced at 9/2).

And with the quarter odds concession in play, I'm throwing a get rich quick 1pt ew treble at my three 'value' horses as well.

Break

It's the end of my flat season (and not a very good one at that!), and I'm taking a break for a bit to re-group for the jumps.

Back in a week.

Steve McLaren

Interesting markets around our qualification for Euro 2008.

Ladbrokes go a stand-out 1/2 that we still qualify. That seems about right.

Corals go 8/1 McLaren to leave his post in 2007.

Putting the two together is interesting. We play all our remaining qualifiers in 2007. It's all but unthinkable that McLaren would survive us not qualifying. Which makes that 8/1 look mighty big. Seems to me you can back them both and enjoy a free(ish) bet on McLaren leaving his post, or arb to suit yourself.

Of course, if we don't qualify and for some reason he kept his post we're in trouble. On the other hand, if we just qualify, or are struggling to qualify it's entirely possible he could be sacked or resign, and both parts of the bet could be landed. I see the latter as far more likely than the former.


MacLaren to leave his post in 2008 4pts at 8/1
England to qualify for 2008 8pts at 1/2

Strictly Come Dancing

A decent little earner last year, and slightly more enjoyable than the pantomime that is X Factor.

We've only seen the blokes and to be honest they were a sorry looking bunch. Unless the girls prove even worse they should have the upperhand. I know Darren Gough won last year but the supporting role of the bloke is much less inspiring than a female twirling around, and I'd have thought the women would win something like 2 out of every 3 showings of this.

A portfolio (aka backing half the field!):

Emma Bunton 2.5pts win at 4/1
Carole Smillie 2pts win at 16/1
Mark Ramprakash 2.5pts win at 6/1
Jan Ravens 1pt win at 75/1
Claire King 1pt win at 30/1
Matt Dawson 1pt win at 20/1



And Mica Paris looks vulnerable, not least to the reality TV curse, and could be on her way Saturday.

Mica Paris 3pts elimination at 100/30

Weekend Football - 14 and 16 Oct

The Preston price looks way out. Keane mania still rampant presumably.


Preston 5pts beat Sunderland at 11/8

Doncaster (away) 5pts beat Cheltenham at 12/5

Torquay 5pts beat Accrington at 6/5

Monday
Fulham 5pts beat Charlton at 11/10 (not that you should ever tip your own team)!

Mid-week Euro 2008

I just have to oppose England here. I'd have Croatia much shorter, but will save on 0-0.


Croatia 4pts at 9/4
No goalscorer 1pt at 13/2

Weekend football - Friday 6th/ Saturday 7th Oct

Hope you're not expecting any international bets!


Doncaster 5pts beat Oldham at 11/8

Mansfield 5pts beat Notts Co at 6/4



Not sure about the latter, as I've just backed Notts Co at 16/1 to win the league (along with Yeovil at 28/1 to win league one). Both look to be improving rapidly. These leagues are hopeless and last year proved how easy it is to get promoted on modest improvement.

Dunhill Golf

Not exactly original:


Howell 1pt ew at 20/1
Stenson 1pt ew at 20/1

Summary of profit/loss - October 2006

Here's the usual breakdown of progress since start of blog.


Football
Out: 1068pts
In: 1130pts
% returns: 105%


Football matches - this season
Out: 266pts
In: 324pts
% returns: 122%


Golf
Out: 326 pts
In: 237pts
%returns: 72%


Racing
Out: 56pts
In: 76pts
%returns 135%


Others:
Out: 66pts
In: 156 pts
% returns: 237%


Overall
Out: 1518pts
In: 1600pts
% returns: 105%


(Remember racing tips can be found at www.escorialracing.co.uk. It's been a tough season, but returns still running at 103%.)