If betting tonight, and you haven't had your accounts closed, there's two good deals - Bet365 will match your pre-match bet up to £50 with a free in-running bet, and Paddy Power will refund correct score etc bets if Barcelona win in 90 minutes.
No obvious value, typically. However, I've always thought penalties in finals are wrongly-priced, though I don't have the raw data to prove it. Saturday Gamblers don't need proof of course, just a dubious statistic and 3 of the last 8 champions league finals have gone to penalties - that'll do for me.
The sprint at Haydock has a clear favourite, who has legitimate credentials. I prefer to take the wider view that sprinters (with the possible exception of Delegator) aren't group 1 animals at all, and so have very little by way of class edge over each other. So we have to go against the fave here. The Cheka, who never wins, especially when I'm backing, and High Standing (already been thrashed twice by the fave) are the illogical looking choices, but prices dictated. If the fave is a non runner we're in trouble...you may want to keep powder dry for a bit yet, unless like me you're going out for the day.
So £50 on Champions Leageue to go to penalties at 11/2ish
and £50 dutched The Cheka and High Standing at 7/2ish
I'll leave you to make up your own get rich quick treble.
Be lucky...
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Saturday, May 14, 2011
FA Cup and Lockinge
Blogger wasn't working for me end of this week - you didn't miss much!
I'm not the only one who thinks Man City are too short to win the cup this afternoon, judging by the market this morning. Plenty of people dabbling on Stoke. To be honest I'd want the draw on my side as well, but certainly don't think City should be odds-on.
Lockinge - Canford Cliffs needs to be fit to beat Dick Turpin, and the prices don't look right on that basis. I like Twice Over's price too, but do think he's a 10f specialist.
Earlier in the day Akmal might get a canny front-running ride from Hills here, and if so 11/2 is huge.
At Newmarket Chiberta King could be tailed off last, but won this race last year and races off a lower mark, 16/1 worth a win only bet.
And how about a few quid of Azerbaijan to win Eurovision at 9/1, and the Racing Post put up Slovenia at 100/1 - seems rude not to.
So something like:
Lay Man City for £50 at under evens.
Dick Turpin £30 at 7/2
Aqmal £20 at 11/2
Chiberta King £20 at 16/1
£10 treble the horses
Azerbaijan £15 at 9/1
Slovenia £5 at 100/1
Be lucky...
I'm not the only one who thinks Man City are too short to win the cup this afternoon, judging by the market this morning. Plenty of people dabbling on Stoke. To be honest I'd want the draw on my side as well, but certainly don't think City should be odds-on.
Lockinge - Canford Cliffs needs to be fit to beat Dick Turpin, and the prices don't look right on that basis. I like Twice Over's price too, but do think he's a 10f specialist.
Earlier in the day Akmal might get a canny front-running ride from Hills here, and if so 11/2 is huge.
At Newmarket Chiberta King could be tailed off last, but won this race last year and races off a lower mark, 16/1 worth a win only bet.
And how about a few quid of Azerbaijan to win Eurovision at 9/1, and the Racing Post put up Slovenia at 100/1 - seems rude not to.
So something like:
Lay Man City for £50 at under evens.
Dick Turpin £30 at 7/2
Aqmal £20 at 11/2
Chiberta King £20 at 16/1
£10 treble the horses
Azerbaijan £15 at 9/1
Slovenia £5 at 100/1
Be lucky...
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
York - Musidora Tuesday
I'm around for York, so will play half stakes.
The 1:30 handicap is all about Taqleed and the two unexposed horses, and the prices reflect that. I can't find an edge I'm happy with at that end of the market, so I'll take speculation to its limits and go for a Fahey horse that probably isn't even trying today judging by the jockey booking. Still , it is 50/1 - Ingleby Spirit.
And having got a taste for 50/1 shots I'll wonder to myself what Peter Chapple-Hyam's apparent no-hoper's doing in a weak looking Musidora, and there goes a few more quid on Whey Sauce.
The sprint has a proper group horse in it - Godolphin may have ruined him, but he looks the one to land the life-changing treble - Delegator.
£5ew Ingleby Spirit 50/1
£5ew Whey Sauce 50/1
£5ew double
£2.50ew treble with Delegator for the £50,000
and if need be £10 Delegator.
Be lucky...(you'll need to be!)
The 1:30 handicap is all about Taqleed and the two unexposed horses, and the prices reflect that. I can't find an edge I'm happy with at that end of the market, so I'll take speculation to its limits and go for a Fahey horse that probably isn't even trying today judging by the jockey booking. Still , it is 50/1 - Ingleby Spirit.
And having got a taste for 50/1 shots I'll wonder to myself what Peter Chapple-Hyam's apparent no-hoper's doing in a weak looking Musidora, and there goes a few more quid on Whey Sauce.
The sprint has a proper group horse in it - Godolphin may have ruined him, but he looks the one to land the life-changing treble - Delegator.
£5ew Ingleby Spirit 50/1
£5ew Whey Sauce 50/1
£5ew double
£2.50ew treble with Delegator for the £50,000
and if need be £10 Delegator.
Be lucky...(you'll need to be!)
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Victoria Cup and Lingfield Derby Trial
I was away last week and so missed the dodgems at Chester, so am no doubt richer now than I would have been!
Victoria Cup: God knows what the ground will end up like, so caution multiplied on a track where I'm already suspicious about the straight course. Of course take that attitude to flat racing and a pro just wouldn't bet at all these days - but us Saturday gamblers want the action, and that leads me to two darts. Excellent Guest looks to have solid credentials and I'd have him vying for favouritism with the front two to be honest. Shamandar gets a tentative nod also, Haggas running him in this after such along break, suggesting he's got high hopes.
The Lingfield Derby Trial has been a good race for me in the past and the complete outsider has to be of interest on price terms, even though I know nothing about him, but as the only Derby entrant and given a positive mention from Gerald Delamere this morning, I'm happy to look a fool at 11/1ish and make him the bet of the day.
I'm not sure the usual £100 weekly bet is sensible on such a wet day, but something like:
Marhaba Malyoon £40 at 11/1
Excellent Guest £25 at 16/1
Shamandar £10 at 25/1
£2.50 comb exacta the above two
Drill Sergeant £10 Swinton Hurdle 25/1 (for the hell of it)
£10 treble Marhaba/Excellent Guest/Drill Sergeant returns £50000ish...
Be lucky...
Victoria Cup: God knows what the ground will end up like, so caution multiplied on a track where I'm already suspicious about the straight course. Of course take that attitude to flat racing and a pro just wouldn't bet at all these days - but us Saturday gamblers want the action, and that leads me to two darts. Excellent Guest looks to have solid credentials and I'd have him vying for favouritism with the front two to be honest. Shamandar gets a tentative nod also, Haggas running him in this after such along break, suggesting he's got high hopes.
The Lingfield Derby Trial has been a good race for me in the past and the complete outsider has to be of interest on price terms, even though I know nothing about him, but as the only Derby entrant and given a positive mention from Gerald Delamere this morning, I'm happy to look a fool at 11/1ish and make him the bet of the day.
I'm not sure the usual £100 weekly bet is sensible on such a wet day, but something like:
Marhaba Malyoon £40 at 11/1
Excellent Guest £25 at 16/1
Shamandar £10 at 25/1
£2.50 comb exacta the above two
Drill Sergeant £10 Swinton Hurdle 25/1 (for the hell of it)
£10 treble Marhaba/Excellent Guest/Drill Sergeant returns £50000ish...
Be lucky...
Sunday, May 01, 2011
1000 Guineas
I don't suppose we'll see a performance like Frankel's yesterday, but perhaps we'll get closer to backing a winner!
My problem this morning is that on my tissue Misty For Me comes out as value. The problem is I never get O'Brien's horses right and the clue is usually in the market - when their mob is backing their horses I don't see them as value and they win, and when they don't they drift to big looking prices and they lose. You've been warned.
Of the rest, Moonlight Cloud looks fairly priced and may drift to a big looking price if locals avoid her, but I won't be around to take advantage. Make a Dance is the ridiculous one I like to find at a sexy price, but the price isn't at all what I'd hoped.
All in all, a bit confusing. Still, having had a good day yesterday, I'll play again, something like:
Misty For Me £25 at 11/1
Make a Dance £20 at 16/1
£2.50rev fc
Be lucky...
My problem this morning is that on my tissue Misty For Me comes out as value. The problem is I never get O'Brien's horses right and the clue is usually in the market - when their mob is backing their horses I don't see them as value and they win, and when they don't they drift to big looking prices and they lose. You've been warned.
Of the rest, Moonlight Cloud looks fairly priced and may drift to a big looking price if locals avoid her, but I won't be around to take advantage. Make a Dance is the ridiculous one I like to find at a sexy price, but the price isn't at all what I'd hoped.
All in all, a bit confusing. Still, having had a good day yesterday, I'll play again, something like:
Misty For Me £25 at 11/1
Make a Dance £20 at 16/1
£2.50rev fc
Be lucky...
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