Mideweek football (and golf)

I must be going mad doing this but the ratings compel me!

Rotherham 5pts beat Swansea at 2/1


This week's Johnnie Walker golf:

Dyson 1pt ew at 40/1

Racing 24th Feb

I see Escorial has a new tissue man, and very good he is too, judging by the trailer. Far better than I've been since I left that's for sure!! I wish him well.


Kempton 2:35
Natal 7/2
Good Spirit 4/1
Ursis 4/1
Classified 7/1
Dunsfold Duke 7/1
Il Duce 11/1
Yes Sir 16/1

Tricky little affair, especially with the ground conditions. Natal does look vulnerable, Good Spirit gets a handy allowance, and Ursis jumped really well last week. However, I'll play the small stable outsider who looks a promising sort - and I imagine his price would be entirely different if trained by Nicholls.

Dunsfold Duke 3pts win at 10/1


Kempton 3:10
Lucifer Bleu 9/4
Celtic Son 5/1
Limerick Boy 5/1
Lacdoudal 12/1
Reveillez 12/1
Simon 12/1
Cornish Sett 25/1
Puntal 25/1
Without a Doubt 25/1

A very disappointing field. We've been on Lucifer Bleu the last two times at the bigger prices, and this looks a decent time to abandon him! Simon is also in our stable but would see him plugging on one-paced. I took Lacdoudal for old times sake in the week but the ground has done for him. You need a leap of faith to back Celtic Son, he's got a timeform squiggle for god's sake. Yet....today has the feeling of being the day, and I sense the stable see him as more likely than Lucifer. Probably wrong.

Celtic Son 5pts win at 8/1



Kempton 4:15
Fast Forward 2/1
Limited Edition 5/2
Made in Montot 7/1
Fork Lightning 11/1

I'll bet that the market has the front two the wrong way round.

Fast Forward 4pts at 9/4


Newcastle 3:30
Teeming Rain 5/1
Silver Knight 10/1
Lordofourown 11/1
Nil Desperandum 11/1
Datito 20/1
Chabrimal Minster 20/1
What a Native 25/1

The fave doesn't exactly scream at me, and the two good horses are going to have to lug a load of weight in unraceable ground. I have to look towards the bottom for anything with any sign of lie in them. Chabrimal may have a smidgeon of improvement left andf Datito loves heavy ground racing fresh.

Datito 3pts win at 33/1+
Chabrimal Minster 2pts win at 25/1
half pt rev fc




Newcastle 4:35

Blue Splash 4pts win at 11/8

Weekend Football 24/25 feb

Three Premiership matches, which is very unusual, and not usually profitable!

Charlton 5pts beat West Ham at 13/10

Orient 5pts beat Tranmere at 7/4

Blackburn 5pts beat Portsmouth at 13/10

Newcastle (away) 5pts beat Wigan at 9/5

Mid-week Football

We'll avoid the Champions League.

Shrewsbury 5pts beat Notts Co at 5/4

Everton 5pts beat Spurs at 13/10

Racing - Saturday 17th Feb

Ascot 1:10
French Saluaie 7/1
The Real Deal 7/1
Flying Falcon 8/1
Pevensey 8/1
My Immortal 12/1
Overstrand 16/1
Slew Charm 16/1
nation State 16/1
Turtle Soup 20/1
Mahogany Blaze 25/1
Magic Sky 25/1

I'm with Pricewise here - Flying Falcon is lurking menacingly.

Flying Falcon 3pts win at 12/1


Ascot 1:45
Gungadu 4/6
Over The Creek 4/1
According to John 9/1

I think right handed will prove to be the key to Gungadu who has a hell of an engine on him. If money comes for Over the Creek I may be persuaded to back a drifting Gungadu, otherwise no bet.


Ascot 2:20
Monets Garden 6/4
Thisthatandtother 3/1
Cerium 9/1

Monets garden solid if the real horse turns up. However if Thisthatandtother gets any longer 3pts will be going his way.


Ascot 4:10
Misty Dancer 7/2
Marcel 7/2
Gentleman Jimmy 5/1
My World 10/1
Palua 20/1

A lesse of evils race really but I snaffled the early prices about Morrison's horse.

Gentleman Jimmy 3pts win at 8/1


Haydock 1:25
Labelthou 7/4
Material World 7/4
Afrad 7/1
St Matthew 11/1

A match really and I think the market is in danger of under-estimating the one-eyed mare. I'll wait but am prepared to back Material World at anything over 2s.


Haydock 2:00
Cloudy Lane 7/1
Kilbeggan Blade 8/1
GVA Ireland 8/1
Bewleys Berry 9/1
Kelami 12/1
The Outlier 12/1
Mon Mome 16/1
Kandjar Dallier 16/1
Naunton Brook 16/1
Leading Man 20/1
Heltornic 20/1
L'Aventure 25/1

No end of horses with chances. However, I was keen on Cloudy Lane mid-week and took him at 9s overnight almost certain Pricewise was going to pick him. Of today's prices GVA Ireland and Bewleys Berry both appeal, but I'll wait for now.


Haydock 4:55
Bohemian Spirit 5/2
Regal Heights 4/1
Flake 9/2
Madison Du Berlais 9/2
Calatagan 6/1

I really think Bohemian Spirit should be favourite here, not least because the rest of them look likely to cut each other's throats and that's exactly what Spirit likes. The ground is a worry though.

Bohemian Spirit 3pts win at 3/1


Wincanton 1:20
Opera Mundi 4/6
Desert Air 11/2
Ursis 11/2
All Star 9/1

My prices match the market but I can't say I'm happy with them. I certainly wouldn't want to back Opera Mundi at that price over this trip but can't get excited about the others either.


Wincanton 2:30
Lucifer Bleu 7/2
Englishtown 7/2
Black Hills 6/1
Alphabetical 11/1

Not much depth here. I had a stray point on Lucifer Bleu at 50s when he popped up on his reappearance. Whilst I fear the "bounce" (whether it exists or not!), I have to stick with him.

Lucifer Bleu 3pts win at 7/2


Wincanton 3:00
No prices but Kipsigis is in my "stable", and I'm prepared to forgive him his last run. My stable came up with a massive treble on this very day last year, and whilst I don't have a chance of repeating the feat I certainly believe it's a useful approach to have in your bag.

Kipsigis 3pts win at 8/1


Wincanton 3:30
Afsoun 11/10
Straw Bear 11/10

Match - and personally I'd lean towards Afsoun, so if he drifts...


Wincanton 4:00
Little Brick 6/4
My Will 9/4
Preacher Boy 11/2
Napolitain 9/1

All the money for Little Brick , the Grand National talking horse. I was certainly going to make him fave for this getting the weight, but the market may over-react and My Will is a rock solid performer, worth 3pts should he get too much longer.


I have priced up a couple of races at both Uttoxeter and Lingfield but not much doing early doors.

Weekend Football - 17th/18th Feb

Leicester 5pts beat Coventry 11/10

Southmapton 5pts beat Barnsley 1/2

Doncaster 5pts beat Swansea at 5/4

Preston 5pts beat Man City at 17/10

The last two would rate as 3 star bets.

Racing - Friday 16th Feb

Sandown 2:25
Irish raptor 3/1
Schuh Shine 7/2
Mokum 9/1
Tanterari 10/1

Irish Raptor looks the solid one. Not least in that I'm taken that he's in this easier race whilst those he ran against last time are entered up in the bigger races Saturday. Plenty of doubts about the others, despite Schuh Shine's hurdling sequence.

Irish Raptor 3pts win at 7/2



Sandown 3:00
Back Nine 4/5
Whitenzo 6/4

I used to go to this meeting and the other military one that follows it most years. Not for the army obviously, simply because it's a mid-week day out at my local track. I believe I must have seen dear old Alers-Hankey fall at pretty much every fence at the course in that time, and another year on here he is again locking pistols with his arch nemesis Captain Snowden, (Major Ellwood must be off doing something imperial). Whitenzo won this two years ago without even thinking. Not hard to think he can defy the penalties against Back Nine.

Whitenzo 3pts win at 2/1

Indonesian Open - golf

A couple of golfers in a desperate event, and then I'll take a break - back for Sandown Friday.

Simon Dyson 2pts ew at 9/1
Igancio Garrido 1pt ew at 50/1

Racing - Saturday 10th Feb

Newbury 1:35
Denman 4/6
Mr Pointment 7/2
Standin Obligation 7/1

I'm enough of a fool to oppose Mr Pointment here. Probably at least as good as Don't Push It who gave Denman a real race.

Mr Pointment 4pts win at 9/2



Newbury 2:05
Isle De Maurice 6/1
Beare Necessities 6/1
Minella Tipperary 7/1
Maharbal 9/1
Double Dizzy 9/1
Liberthine 20/1
Itsmyboy 20/1
Junkanoo 20/1
Special rate 20/1

One of my top two is very weak, the other very strong. I'll probably back them both late on, but it's a dodgy looking race.


Newbury 3:15
Tarlac 10/1
Acambo 11/1
Papini 11/1
Moores Law 11/1
New Field 11/1
Quatre Heures 11/1
Pedrobob 11/1
Private Be 16/1
Overstrand 25/1
My Immortal 25/1
Rio De Janeiro 25/1
Mister Hight 33/1
Caracciola 33/1
Orcadian 33/1

My ante post portfolio is made up of Tarlac, Pedrobob, Private Be and Rio De Janeiro, and I can't find much else to add this morning. Maybe play around with exactas etc closer to the off.


Newbury 3:50
Ashley Brook 3/1
Well Chief 3/1
Voy Per Ustedes 4/1
Foreman 4/1
Sporazene 16/1

Tricky race this. The ket to me is the weight Ashley and Chief are receiving. Granted one may bounce and the other may be looked after and need the race, but they are the better horses. I think Foreman should be priced the same as VPU, and may add him in late, but for now I'll go with the best horse.

Well Chief 5pts win at 4/1

Racing - Friday 9th Feb

Kempton 3:40
Milan Deux Mille Evens
Laskari 5/1
Mambo Des Mottes 6/1
Mr Boo 13/2
Pardishar 33/1

The favourite's rock solid, the only fear being too many races; Laskari decent but there must be a worry about the trainer's form still; Mambo Des Mottes probably well treated but jumping a worry and the trip. Mr Boo down in class, doesn't have to give away too much weight, but a worry about his absence having dropped out quickly on his last run. His price looks the most tempting. Later on, should 8 stand their ground there are ew options on Mr Boo as well.

Mr Boo 3pts win at 12/1+
Milan Deux Mille 3pts win at 11/10

Football - weekend 10 Feb

Six matches Saturday:

Newcastle 5pts beat Liverpool at 3/1

Reading 5pts beat Villa at 6/5

Coventry 5pts beat Cardiff 8/5

Brighton (away) 5pts beat Brentford at 2/1

Millwall 5pts beat Chesterfield at Evens

Hartlepool 5pts beat Walsall at 13/10

Three of these could be termed as three star bets - Reading, Coventry and Hartlepool.

Racing Saturday 3rd Feb

Sandown 1:35
Chilling Place 7/1
Bohemian Spirit 7/1
Oneway 10/1
Dempsey 10/1
Madison Du Berlais 10/1
Andreas 10/1
Kalca Mome 10/1
Hasty Prince 10/1
Jericho 111 10/1

Not sure what Bohemian Spirit's got to do to be taken seriously - I imagine it's prejudice against Rose Davidson - but she won well enough on him on the course last time. jericho 111 is long this morning for an improving horse at the bottom of the handicap. Of the others I respect Chilling Place, Kalca Mome is an old friend but needs it bottomless, Dempsey is an old friend but I'm sick of him falling and I can't envisage the day I'd back either Andreas or Hasty Prince (there's your forecast!)

Bohemian Spirit 4pts win at 12/1
Jericho 111 2pts win at 20/1
half pt rev fc


Sandown 2:10
Detroit City all the way - especially with Gifford's stable in such poor form.


Sandown 2:40
New Little Bric 6/4
All Star 3/1
Aztec Warrior 7/2
Pretty Star 7/1

The first of two novice chases that look much more open than the prices suggest. This one looks easier to find a bet, as I can oppose the fave on price grounds alone, and have yet to be entirely convinced by Aztec's jumping.

All Star 5pts win at 9/2


Sandown 3:15
Taranis 5/1
Royals Darling 6/1
Accordello 6/1
Oscar Park 8/1
Verasi 11/1
Kasbah Bliss 12/1
Refinement 16/1
Lord Sam 16/1
Lyes Green 16/1

The first of two very tricky handicaps. Reveley has sent a couple of interesting sorts down for them and I'll keep those on-side. This was the first morning in a long time where I've opened the Racing Post and sworn at Pricewise for having tipped horses I was interested in!

Oscar Park 4pts win at 14/1
Accordello 3pts win at 8/1


Sandown 3:50
Flintoff 7/1
Rambling Minster 9/1
Iron Man 16/1
Lord Killeshanra 16/1
Latimers Place 16/1
Yardbird 16/1
Pass me By 16/1

Hard to find a bet. I'll do a double on the two Reveley raiders and also probably keep two previous friends on-side in Flintoff and Latimers Place.


Wetherby 1:50
Allistathebarrista 6/4
Julius Ceasar 13/2
Laertes 12/1

Looks a fairly easy assignment for the favourite.

Allistathebarrista 5pts win at 13/8



Wetherby 2:25
Coat of Honour 7/4
St Matthew 3/1
Wain Mountain 11/2

I can see St Matthew being all the rage against the fave here. That could make Coat of Honour well backable. I'll wait and see.


Wetherby 3:30
Hoh Viss 11/4
Royal Rosa 5/1
Blue Splash 11/2
Heez a dreamer 11/2
Miko De Beauchene 11/2
Omni Cosmo Touch 13/2

I have this much more condensed than the bookies. I keep scratching my head about the longer ones, but guess I'll just have to dive in regardless.

Miko De Beauchene 3pts win at 10/1
Omni Cosmo Touch 3pts win at 14/1
half pt rev fc

Weekend Football

One from each division.

Aston Villa 5pts beat West Ham at 10/11

Leicester 5pts beat Luton at 10/11

Doncaster 5pts beat Carlisle at 5/6

MK Dons (away) 5pts beat Bury at 8/5



For the rugby I came over all patriotic Monday and so at least scooped up some nice prices on England before the Wilkinson inspired rush. The bet that really does catch the eye though is Italy at 10/1 to score most drop-goals. They won this last year, and actually were the only country that really attempted any worth counting. The price just seems plain wrong.
Getting much on probably tricky - say 2pts.

Racing Friday 2 Feb

Chepstow 2:35
Midas Way 13/8
Pass Me A Dime 4/1
Brads House 7/1

Not a very competitive field. I think Midas Way should appreciate the step up in trip, and if he drifts much that's where my last minute money will go.

Racing - Thurs 1st Feb

Wincanton 2:40
Warningcamp 9/2
Kings Signal 9/2
Basic fact 5/1
Earth Man 6/1
Ostrogoth 9/1
Anemix 11/1

My book fairly different to the market. On another day I could be persuaded to get my boots on. I have a feeling I'll wait until late and would be interested in betting either or both my front two against the Jonjo horse (step down in trip dead against) and the Nicholls first-time out this season (trainer not exactly firing in the mid-week winners). I like both my front two - I never need much encouragement to back a Lady Herries runner and Kings Signal was given far too much to do in a much harder race last time out).


Wincanton 3:10
Flying Enterprise 6/4
Trouble at Bay 3/1
Nippy des Mottes 4/1
Priors Dale 11/2

I thought Flying Enterprise should have been fave when winning for us on saturday and think he should be shorter here. Granted this is back to 2m on a quick track with little rest. On the other hand Venetia Williams has been performing wonders with horses under penalties (Maletton, Flintoff etc). Plus the horse is still top of my ratings and yet gets useful weight from Trouble at Bay here. Plus I haven't been overly impressed with with that horse or with Nippy Des Mottes. I see Trading Post have put him up as a lay, but I'll play early and if he drifts (as Flintoff did), I'll top-up late.

Flying Enterprise 6pts win at 2/1

Monthly Summary - Jan

That was a tough month. Next year I've determined I will stay in England for Boxing Day and New Year to keep on top of all the racing and football. Instead I'll go away in January where the racing is just terrible.

It was a very bad time to have a new year resolution about setting up an aggressive fund as well, though at least I realised that early on and tempered things.

It certainly makes the stats look impoverished and if you'll forgive me I won't drag myself through further purgatory by reproducing them in loving detail here.

Suffice to say the overall stats since blog inception now stand at overall returns of 102%. That's somewhat awry of the 110% target and would probably lead you to rightly wonder what the point is! So do I at the moment. However, and this matches Pareto's rule for those interested in such things, in my two years full-time, 80% of my profits can be accounted for by:

a) Two very large winning trebles (both at Wincanton strangely). The winning horses were all tipped here (or rather on escorial at the time) but not the trebles. I nearly always throw a point accumulator at my best selections and would recommend it for those with the bank to stand the long losing runs. Believe me, the wins more than make up for it. I also had a football five-timer, another once a season event worth shooting for.

b) An amazing Cheltenham Festival last year, mainly abetted by some outrageous ante post winners, which of course were also unaccounted on here.

c) Sergeant Cecil on his handicap spree, and backed like an old friend throughout.

On the very big down-side this is the first year I've struggled with reality TV. This used to be a cash cow, but something's changed (the power of the edit has corrupted the producers' heads I think).

Other stats:

Football for the 2007 season continues in good heart (a nice treble completed last night). 114% returns.

The jumps racing season has a lot of work to do (that treble aside). 88% returns.



2007 stats for the blog:
Out 259
In 161
62%
(told you it was a bad month!).