Football 1st Sept and £500 Challenge

Here's three for the weekend.


Plymouth to beat Leicester at 6/4.
Not a difficult one. Plymouth very strong at home and Leicester in disarray despite last weekend's results. The coupon price was put up prior to the turmoil, and the exchanges already trading at shorter.


Stoke to beat Wolves (at 4/5 at 0 on Asian)
Pulis has Stoke very well organised and they look under-rated generally. They lost fewest games in the Championship last year, so the Asians look the way to go.


Blackburn to beat Man City at 5/4
Man City are being over-rated currently. They are better organised this year, and the Blackburn price looks based on a couple of bookies taking a chance they struggle to break down the Dunne/Richards partnership. I'm confident Blackburn are under-rated generally and 5/4 looks a really big price to me - I'd be closer to odds-on.


£500 Challenge
Blackburn £15 to beat Man City at 5/4

Running Total
£530.74

Sunday 26th August

Get out enjoy the sun – you can still get back in time for the football and this race!

Goodwood 4:30.
King of Argos 11/2
Minority Report 11/2
Vitznau 11/2
White Deer 6/1
Binanti 9/1
Escape Route 9/1

Competitive looking race. White Deer could represent some value, his form with Vitznau gives him every chance here, and he may be priced more on his disappointing run in bad gorund at York last time. I look to have overcooked the books a bit but 12s are available against 7s with Paddy Power.

Saturday Aug 25th

A couple of interesting betting heats this week, considering the piece I wrote early on about prices.

The England/India 2^nd one day international had an interesting pattern. To start with there was an over-reaction to India's (decidedly dodgy) capitulation in the first match. This was then exacerbated by a good old fashioned rumour of flu. Eventually the Indians were trading at 6/4, which considering they were 4/6 for the first match is a remarkable turnaround. I'm pleased to say (aftertiming aside) that I was able to profit from this.

Not as good for me was Wannabe Posh's victory. Here was a race where the thoroughly game Posh only had to meet her mark to beat all but a possible improver. When I priced them up initially I had them at joint favourites. Sadly I then read something from someone I respect and amended my tissue accordingly. He was very keen on Winter Sunrise and as a Stoute filly it wasn't hard to think of her as winning this easily on her way to group races. Even so, she was priced on potential rather than form and Wannabe Posh allowed to go off at a very good price as a result.

Anyway onwards.

Goodwood 2:05
Ivy Creek 5/2
Samuel 7/2
Rayhani 7/1
Tungsten Strike 11/1

Could possibly go 3/1 each of the front two. I'm a bit fed up of following Rayhani over the cliff. The formbook is sure he doesn't stay, which begs the question what Tregoning thinks he's doing running him in a race he likes to win. Against my better judgement I'm going to edge off the cliff one last time, I can't muster much enthusiasm for the rest.

Goodwood 3:10
Cesare 6/4
Dunelight 6/1
Echelon 7/1
Blue Ksar 7/1
Blythe Knight 7/1
Selinka 20/1

Everyone and his dog knows that this is a pace race with the likelihood on paper of Dunelight getting an easy lead and Frank Spencer getting it wrong in the last furlong. The problem is when the information like this is so prominent (a) a form of group-think forces the prices to unwarranted extremes and (b) because everyone knows about it the scenario rarely pans out in practice anyway! There's every chance Echelon will be asked to race prominently here for example.

Because of this I'll keep a close eye on Cesare's price in case a form of madness takes hold. Besides that I have to say Blythe Knight looks under-rated still. He looks a much improved horse this year, 7/1 looks fair and although it's worrying to see him at any price on betfair this morning, I'm still bound to dive in at 14/1 plus.

Newmarket 3:25
Baltahzaars Gift 6/4
Shmookh 9/2
Firenze 9/1
Rising Shadow 10/1
Fonthill Road 10/1
Presto Shinko 10/1

A striking thing about this race on paper is a lack of pace. It may not work out that way but there is every chance of Shmookh taking the race by the scruff of the neck.

Not sure any of these deserve £500 challenge status though

York Thursday 23rd August

York 2:35
Docofthebay 6/1
The Illies 8/1
Benanddonner 9/1
We'll Come 9/1
Fremen 10/1
Humungous 12/1
Smart Enough 12/1
Annemassee 12/1

I think Docofthebay may be slightly undervalued – probably given his running style. Benanddonner could be a fair price in the place market.

York 3:10
Dandy man 7/2
Magnus 5/1
Moorhouse lad 7/1
Amadeus Wolf 12/1
Red Clubs 12/1
Reverence 12/1
Hoh Mike 12/1
Beauty is Truth 12/1

Doubts about all the 12/1 shots. Tracey Collins form also a worry and Dandy Man's tendency not to win. I missed the Pricewise but Magnus still looks fairly priced at 7s and worth joining in. Moorhouse lad's performance may well have been underrated – it did appear a bit freakish, but Ryan Moore was impressed enough to stick with him. I'll do the same.

York 3:50
Racer Forever 3/1
Welsh Emperor 7/1
Mine 20/1
New Seeker 20/1
Duff 20/1

Welsh Emperor could be over-rated after Saturday where conditions fell his way. He's going to have a battle for the lead here on much quicker ground. The pace angle does suggest the race will fall into Racer Forever's lap if he's in good heart and 3/1 looks fair if you can get it.

York 4:25
Winter Sunrise 2/1
Wannabee Posh 3/1
Brisk Breeze 10/1
Dance of Light 10/1

There may be an overreaction to the unexposed Winter Sunrise and a drift on the solid Wannabe Posh. Could be a bit of value on the latter if so.

Weds 22 Aug - York and KLM golf

York 1:30
Heaven Knows 4/1
Smokey Oakey 9/1
River Tiber 9/1
Players Please 11/1
Font 11/1
Great Hawk 16/1
Ofaraby 16/1
Peruvian Prince 16/1
Greek Well 16/1

The plunge on Heaven Knows may just about provide enough of an over-reaction to force a couple of those behind him in the market out to backable prices. I'll sit and wait.

York 2:35
Purple Moon 5/1
Scriptwriter 12/1
Group captain 12/1
Hitchcock 12/1
Honolulu 12/1
Tranquil Tiger 12/1
Minkowski 16/1
Peppertree Lane 20/1
Lake Poet 20/1
Pevensey 20/1
Strategic Mount 20/1
All The Good 20/1
Wing Collar 20/1
Mudawin 20/1

Hard to find anything here. The bottom three all have place prospects probably ahead of their ew odds, and All the Good is probably backable each way.

Cumani's record is hard to get away from and I've done the double just in case the obvious happens.

York 3:10
Peeping Fawn 8/13
Silkwood 5/2

Hard to price up. If the ground looks to have dried up I'd take a chance on Silkwood at 3s.

Trick or Treat could enjoy a very soft lead (or Allegretto could ruin that angle). Obviously not good enough but I still think I'll throw a tenner at him at 350/1 odd!

Golf – KLM

I was toying with the idea of backing McGrane in the best GB player market but I think there's a better bet to be had backing him at Evens in a match with Maarten Lafeber. Considering Lafeber's form of late and in this last year he must be being priced up too short simply on the grounds he's playing 'at home'.

York Tues 21 Aug - and £500 Challenge

The handicaps are horrors so let's stick to the group races.

York 2:00
Septimus 13/8
Sergeant Cecil 7/2
Distinction 9/2
Balkan Knight 16/1
Percussionist 16/1
Anna Pavlova 16/1

O'Brien really good at stepping these horses up in trip so whatever happens I'll be saving on the favourite. Not sure what Sergeant Cecil has done to be such a big price though – 13/2ish. The penalty is a problem, but the two Ascot races are forgiveable. Both factors are in my prices as far as I'm concerned. The weakness this morning warns of something amiss – Evens in the place market – which given his course record looks huge.

York 2:35
Yellowstone 3/1
Lucarno 3/1
Mahler 9/2
Boscobel 11/1
Macarthur 12/1
Acapulco 16/1

O'Brien could play all manner of games here so not one to be dogmatic about. Not sure what Mahler has done to be so short though. Lucarno stands out on price like a sore thumb at 5/1, again worryingly weak to someone like me on a long losing run and confidence in tatters! Again odds against in the place market looks generous!

York 3:10
Dylan Thomas 5/2
Notnowcato 5/2
Authorised 5/2
Asiatic Boy 8/1
Duke of Marmalade 20/1

I was impressed by Asiatic Boy's last run and will keep an eye on the ground here – notable that Corals are longest though. For the life of me I don't know what Notnowcato's got to do to be taken seriously. He's already beaten these and has the course form. I have to play at 7/2 ish. And I know it's only 7 runners but again odds against in the place market is very eye catching.

£500 Challenge
This could be the day we throw all the profits away!

Sergeant Cecil £3 win at 13/2+, and £9 place at evens+

Lucarno £3 win at 5/1 and £9 place at evens+

Notnowcato £3 win at 7/2 and £9 place at evens+

£1.50 win treble.

Running Total

£532.25

Monday August 20th

Reasons why the price could be wrong.

On the whole I trust my prices and believe they are competitive with those of professional odds compilers. I wouldn't be in my third year as a full-time gambler if not.

However, given this year has been horrid so far, I thought a little navel-gazing was in order. Take stock, count the wounded and bury the dead. Regroup, reload and ready ourselves for the second half of the season.

Someone wise once said he thought it was a very good practice to ask yourself the following question prior to a bet.

“In one simple sentence what it your compelling reason as to why the price is wrong?”

Here's some ideas. They overlap; some are general and some specific so inevitably some are subsets of others.Over time I will rationalise them but it's a decent starting point.

1. Prices are derived from a different market, but should probably be derived individually. Obvious examples:

   a)The place terms from each way markets.

   b) Correct score markets (which are derived from the win odds market).

2. The markets are difficult for odds compilers to price up well due to lack of knowledge or similar.

   a) The Big Brother markets in the early days – no-one had a clue – on the first night you could arb all evening on different prices. Three years in and the prices were 'accurate' within 20 minutes of the end of the first show.

   b) The place market is very complicated to get a handle on. There will be some people with very accurate prices but the suspicion remains that the win market prices continue to have too much influence on the place prices.

   c) The odds compiler is running a market they are not expert in – minor sports or leagues do not have the same dedictaed expertise as mainstream sports.

3. Changing circumstances

   a) change of going prior to a meeting or race

   b) anticipating the eventual make-up of a race ante post and its effect on prices (eg changing each way terms, likely non runners)

   c) form within meetings – eg trainer/jockey form; draw and pace bias.

4. Balancing Books

   a) the initial prices are broadly right, but a late steamer causes other prices to lengthen.

   b) balancing in-running books – eg a league title book – where bookies may make a short-term conscious decision to get a team in the satchel simply to do a bit of internal accounting.

5. Momentum Trading

   a) The fluctuations in betfair late are often to do with people reacting to the movement of a price – positive and negative – and so accentuating the situation. The initial fluctuation may well have had merit but the momentum is probably an overreaction

6. Overreaction to one negative or positive

   a) A horse is carrying a penalty and it will be difficult to win with it. Plenty of commentators have mentioned this and the vibes are bad. No-one wants to back it, and plenty of part-timers want to lay it. It drifts to a big price. But the initial price had already at least partly discounted its chances on the basis of that factor.

   b) team news in football.

   c) jockey changes

7. Rumours creating bullish or bearish market reactions

   a) manager markets!

8. Bias

   a) Patriotism

   b) big team bias and big trainer bias, and overlooking small teams and small stables

   b) lady jockeys

   c) Richard Hills

   d) Popular horses/golfers etc who haven't really got their conditions in this event but people want to 'support' anyway, (and odds compilers are aware of this).

9. Hedging – many traders believe in taking a profit without due regard to the price at which they are trading out. This can provide opportunities for value bets that help them to trade out.

   a) Golfers – a popular golfer is well backed pre-tournament and is two shots clear with a round to play. People want to take out some insurance.

   b) Any similar long-term event.

10. Chaos – usually caused by volatility in-running when odds compilers struggle to keep up with the changes and ascertain true prices.

    a) all in-running sports

11. Greed – betting against the people desperate to win at any odds
    
    a) in-running the general rule is an over anticipation of success and a tendency to chase prices down too far.
    
    b) illiquid markets offer opportunities to encourage impatient people to take poor prices.
    
    c) there are opportunities to tempt people with prices – particuarly drunks overnight, in slow moving longer-term illiquid markets.

2. Over-reaction/Under-reaction to either the facts or the potential.

   a) overrated – what a horse may achieve; under-rated what it has already achieved

   b) Overrated - a horse that wins a big race as well-backed favourite.

   c) recency effect - underrated - a horse that fails when a short price for a big race – now scorned by punters talking through their pockets - “always forgive a horse one failure”.

   d) overrated – the last couple of performances of a football team

I intend to include this question as a final qualifier to my decision-making. I'll also add the factors as new measures of performance to my spreadsheets. At the least it's a small new addition that should refresh my weary bones.

Saturday 18th August

This year continues...


Newbury 2:45
Classic Punch 13/8
Papal Bull 13/8
Shahin 4/1

Classic Punch has the eyeball to eyeball tendencies of his brother. That and a soft lead will surely put pressure on a free running Shahin and a dodgepot Papal Bull. Unfortunately the market already has priced it entirely that way – every chance it's Papal Bull that drifts to a backable price – too late for me though!

Newbury 3:20
Stronghold 5/1
Red Evie 11/2
Silver Touch 11/2
Wake Up Maggie 11/2
Caradak 6/1
Per Incanto 11/1
Welsh Emperor 16/1
Dubai Touch 16/1

Stronghold has to prove fit enough and does have Richard Hughes to contend with – still think he should be closer to favouritism though, given the shadows over all the others. Red Evie won the Lockinge for crissakes, but her last two runs could hardly have been more worrying; Silver Touch probably better fresh and just can't back Channon horses in races like these; Wake Up Maggie flattered by beating up fillies and mares last time even if defied a penalty; Caradak have it all to do fto with a penalty; Per Incanto could be under-rated (Pricewise thinks so) but even Falbrav took time to acclimatise and it may well be that he's a sprinter anyway; Welsh Emperor had his conidtions last year, and Dubai Touch has to step up though he did do me a favour last week. I may keep him on-side in the place market. Of all the doubts, and at the prices I'm drawn towards Stronghold at 15/2.

Newbury 3:55
Lovelace 7/2
Jamieson Gold 5/1
Partners in Jazz 5/1
Burning Incense 5/1
Formax 20/1

Jamieson Gold remains on a tempting mark, having won this last year, and may well have been prepped to peak this week. 15/2 fair again. Formax caught my eye last week. Place possibilities.

Ripon 3:45
Zomerlust 12/1
Dhaluar Dhar 12/1
Philharmonic 12/1
Fullandby 12/1
Orpsie Boy 12/1
Indian Trail 12/1
Ice Planet 12/1
Wyatt Earp 12/1
Malcheek 12/1

Pick the bones out of that! I've priced with the draw favouring high – it should do, and the pace of the race points that way. Only problem is the horses I actually like are drawn low. Looks one to avoid!

Friday 17th August - racing and £500 Challenge

Doncaster 3:05
Ektihaar 5/1
Webbow 5/1
Zaahid 9/1
Mesbah 12/1
Granston 12/1
Oceana Gold 14/1
Fortunate Isle 20/1
Hartshead 20/1
Vicious Warrior 33/1

There's a lot of pace here, and even on firmish ground it's a long way home at Doncaster. Ektihaar the one on Britannia form but I've got an improving Webbow much closer to him on prices than the bookies and that looks to be the bet. Expect Granston to stay on late for a place.

Doncaster 3:40
Sunrise Safari 7/1
Geojimali 7/1
Gift Horse 11/1
Caribbean Coral 11/1
Dig Dep 11/1
Golden Dixie 11/1
Loch Verdi 11/1
Gallery Girl 12/1
Jack Rackham 20/1
Peter Island 20/1

The pace and better horses look high, where the bias usually is anyway. The front two look fairly priced but hardly one for a big thump.

Doncaster 4:45
Enjoy The Moment 9/2
Som Tala 9/2
Golden Quest 6/1
Whipsering Secret 11/1
Downing Street 12/1
Thewhirlingdervish 16/1
Falpaise 20/1

Very trappy. Given a true test Golden Quest looks a shade over-priced, and has a huge weight turnaround with Enjoy The Moment.

Doncaster 5:15
Bollin Felix 5/2
Raffass 5/2
Phreeze 9/1

The ground may have gone against Bollin Fleix. Even if it hasn't at the prices I'd want to side with the useful Raffass – 4/1 looked very big this morning and anything over 3s is OK.

Newbury 2:10
Silver Suitor 3/1
Nojoom 5/1
Shore Thing 7/1
Candle 10/1
Madarek 10/1
Magicalmysterytour 16/1

Quite a few of these are unexposed over the trip so care required. I wouldn't put anyone off a sneaky Tregoning double with Nojoom and Raffass above.

Newmarket 7:30
Familiar Territiory 1to2
Before You Go 4/1
Camrose 6/1

Looks a penalty kick. Any sign of a drift and I'll play.

£500 Challenge

Doncaster 5:15 Raffass £12.50 at 4/1 (or 7/2)

Newmarket 7:30 Familiar Territory £12.50 at ½ or better

Running Total
£557.24

Thursday 16th August

My football ratings have posed me a real problem this weekend. Usually they throw up around 4 bets. This week they supply 12. This is almost certainly caused by a new season, new slate situation and I could be digging myself a deep hole following them blindly.

I need to think about it.

I like the Championship matches though. For what it's worth here are the teams - no £500 challenge bets sadly.

Blackpool
Colchester
Crystal Palace
Plymouth
QPR
Scunthorpe
Gillingham
Hartlepool
Barnet
Grimsby (a)
Rochdale
Sheff Weds (sun)

Weds Aug 15th

Salisbury 4:00
Barshiba probably fairly priced as the solid horse against some disappointing types. I know one very good judge is set against her and I could envisage her drifting to a playable price. For now, no bet.


Football.
Both Man Utd and Chelsea look short enough for tricky away ties tonight. Playing against them on the Asians looks the way to go. I'd be a little surprised if either home team lost by two goals or more so playing them at +1.0 could be the way to go.

Tues 14th August - football and golf

Both golf and football were blow outs for me last week. Hope for better.

Golf
Dyson had a great last round in the USPGA and I'm happy to think he could surf that good feeling through to Scandanavia. 25/1 in places allows us to grab a 6/1+ place bet.

Football
Tonight's match doesn't look great for betting -Spurs weak at the back but Everton not goalscorers whilst Spurs score loads but Everton are defensively sound. The ratings look right anyway.

Instead, I'll take Middlesborough to beat Wigan at 2/1+ - with admittedly a good deal of trepidation.

Mon 13th August - Big Brother - £500 Challenge

A welcome break, and time to have done my usual research with people who actually still watch this show.

I only watched the first night this year, but it was enough for me to take a small position on the twins. Even though I'm nicely green on them already I now think it's time to get stuck in. Making them one entity was just the momentum they needed at exactly the righ time. They are sweet, natural, good-natured people with a little bit of difference to them, so tick all the boxes.

At Evens against a fading Brian and Big Brother shenanigans it's worth letting the £500 challenge have a lick of the spoon.


£500 Challenge
The Twins win big brother at Evens (dutch the two on betfair).

Running Total
£557.24 (which isn't too healthy!)

Weds 8th August

I'm off for a few days relaxation. The Shergar Cup is the biggest load of dogs do ever dumped on racing, so not hard to miss.

Back next week.


This week's USPGA doesn't throw up an obvious placer - too competitive - but I will play the two who look in the best form "placewise" - Rose at 8/1 and Choi as close to 10/1 as you can get.

The Australian market also worth playing with the front runners in dubious nick - Baddeley ew.

Weekend Football - and £500 Challenge

Three matches for me this weekend.

Bolton to beat Newcastle at 6/4

Preston to beat Norwich at 6/5

Both of the above are bets based on my ratings. I can see why the compilers have decided to significantly downgrade both Bolton and Preston over the summer. Indeed I've backed Bolton for relegation myself! Still, all that is supposition and the ratings are based on performance. This sort of discrepancy will continue until the 6 match form kicks in for the
compilers.


Aston Villa to beat Liverpool at 3/1+

This is ratings based too, but also fits with my own estimation of changing fortunes. I think Villa will continue to grow this season and are my idea of the best team without the big 4 (along with Blackburn). Liverpool remain over-rated for me, and unless Torres is the striker they've been missing all these years, they'll continue to underperform.

I like this price so much I'll also play in the £500 challenge.

£500 Challenge
Aston Villa £5 win at 3/1+
Aston Villa £10 win at Evens and better +0.5 on the Asians.

Tues August 7th - £500 challenge

It's not the intention of the £500 challenge to tie money up for long periods. However, I'll add this one to the portfolio.

Is anyone really thinking Arsenal or Liverpool will mount a serious title challenge this season? They both look short to me, Liverpool especially so. My ratings have the front two well clear and it would take a big improvement just to bridge the gap. I'd have thought Man Utd and Chelsea's combined odds would be more like a 1/9 shot than the 1/3 it is. I'll play.


£500 Challenge
Man Utd/Chelsea to win the Premiership - £50 dutched at 1/3

Running Total
£572.24

Mon Aug 6

I don't suppose anyone is stupid enough to follow my golf tips but they leave me feeling pretty chipper this morning; that and a good Saturday at Goodwood recovering the week's losses. The football season starting soon as well. Life settling back into routine. Shame I'm off for a break later this week!

Ripon 3:20
Celtic Sultan 4/1
Whitbarrow 4/1
Desert Commander 7/1
Steel Blue 7/1
Inter Vision 16/1
Caribbean Coral 20/1

The pace up the stands rail should decide this. The prices look right at the moment. Watching brief.

Sunday 5th August

The listed races at Chester and Newbury look too tricky for advice - the ones I like at Chester all have dodgy draws and Newbury looks set to be a tactical race. I'm off to climb Brown Clee in the sun instead. Just as soon as I've sorted out the jackpot at Market Rasen that is!

Anyone who backed Robert-Jan Derksen earlier in the week may want to take a little insurance out at long odds-on in the place market. We'll stick with Tiger in the £500 challenge.

Sat 4th Aug - Goodwood

Last chance at Goodwood (or Moodwood as my wife has christened it this week!)

Goodwood 3:20
Mandesha 7/2
Peeping Fawn 7/2
Light Shift 7/2
Nannina 9/2
Yaqeen 9/1

Mandesha supposedly not as good as last year but has the best form; Peeping Fawn should beaet Light Shift but for the course not looking perfect, and both of those have had tough races and plenty of them; Nannina great run in this last year but 10f not optimum. No-one can agree on the four – close your eyes and take your pick. I'll stick with Nannina out of loyalty if nothing else. I seem alone in thinking there are enough doubts about the big 4 to think Yaqeen has a squeak.

Goodwood 3:55
Zidane 7/1
Knot In Wood 8/1
Balthazars Gift 9/1
Borderlescott 10/1
Viking Spirit 11/1
Intepid Jack 16/1
Grantley Adams 16/1
Machinist 16/1
Fantasy believer 16/1

Another race where value hardly leaps off the page, and where loyalty kicks in – Zidane. This of course means I have to share my selections with Pricewise which led to a rather undignified scramble this morning. Been a long time since that happened – perhaps we're both on course to regain form together. Or possibly we're both on tilt together. Of the rest I really like Borderlescott's chances back in a big handicap and Grantley Adams joins him in having compelling course form. I think both are too big in the place market.

Goodwood 5:40
Peruvian Prince 3/1

Not often I only end up with one horse in a supposedly competitive race. Having backed him in the week ew at 33/1 it seems strange to be backing him at 3/1 fave, but that was a good run and this is way easier.

Frankie seems to be on the fave every race at Newmarket. I know people think this is mug punting and the prices certainly agree, but my records show that doing the obvious in such situations pays dividends – win doubles for me.

Friday Aug 3rd

Looks the most difficult day so far...

Goodwood 2:15
Perfect Performance 4/1
Munsef 9/2
Dragon Dancer 6/1
Imperial Star 7/1
Stotsfold 8/1

It seems a long time since I backed Dragon Dancer for the Derby at 540/1, and he still hasn't won! That must give the race some sort of betting shape. Stotsfold is interesting if you're in a forgiving mood. I'm inclined to wait until in-running though as he can pull very hard. (I wish I'd kept an eye on Allegretto yesterday!).

Goodwood 2:50
Costume 4/1
Selinka 7/1
Majestic Roi 9/1
Scarlet Runner 9/1
Redstone Dancer 16/1
Rainbow Promises 16/1
Tarteel 16/1
Wake up Maggie 20/1
Gloved Hand 20/1
Sander Camillo 20/1

Hopelessly open, and I've just seen that the king of fillies and mares races gives Vital Statistics a decent chance and I haven't even short listed her! Strictly on my tissue though I'm inclined to back Selinka again at 10/1 or better.

Goodwood 3:30
Third Set 7/2
King of Argos 7/1
Montepellier 9/1
Drumfire 9/1
Pinpoint 12/1
Supaseus 12/1
Humungous 33/1
My Paris 33/1
Killena Boy 33/1
Pintle 33/1

We were on Third Set at the weekend and he could hardly have been more impressive. Have to keep him on-side. However, I think I'll combine him with King of Argos and Drumfire.

Goodwood 5:10
Indian Trail 8/1
Roman Maze 8/1
Idle Power 8/1
Border Music 8/1
My Gacho 20/1
Forest Dane 20/1
Longquan 33/1
Fire up the Band 33/1

The draw is supposedly against those ow but I wouldn't be too dogmatic about that. Idle Power loves it here and I'm inclined to take him ew – 16/1 may just about be achievable.

2nd August - £500 challenge

Goodwood 3:25
See previous thread for tissue and bet. However, thinking about this some more it seems to me the right bet on Geordieland is actually to place. All we're worrying about is if he finds anything off the bridle. Looked at like that, if you can get 1/2 you're doing well. Suits the challenge well.

£500 Challenge
Geordieland £15 to place at 1/2

Running total
£575.24

Thursday 2nd August - Goodwood

Two days in and the ship is reeling. Never a good position to be in during a festival, although I do remember one of my very best Cheltenham Thursdays was after a blank two days. We all need something to cling to!

Goodwood 2:15
Wannabee Posh 3/1
Hi calypso 3/1
Trick or Treat 6/1
Pentatonic 8/1
High Heal Sneekers 11/1
Alambic 14/1
Brisk Breeze 16/1
Oh Glory Be 20/1

Trick or Treat is an interesting runner here. She needs a soft lead to be effective and there must be a chance that will happen here. 8/1 and better looks fair in the circumstances. It may be best to wait until in-running though. Wannabee Posh needs a gallop and that should be assured if Trick or Treat does get taken. Hi Calypso looks very fairly priced and I'll add her to the portfolio.

Goodwood 2:50
Enticing 3/1
Wi Dud 9/2
Prime defender 9/1
Tax Free 10/1
Desert Lord 11/1
Celtic Mill 20/1

Be difficult for the top two to carry penalties here, particularly Desert Lord. Wi Dud drawn 16 somewhat uninspiring, Enticing better drawn though Spencer weaving late always hairy. Thought she could be special earlier in the season, and if even I was only half right she should take this. 7/2 perfectly acceptable.

Goodwood 3:25
Geordieland 5/2
Distinction 7/1
Veracity 7/1
Allegretto 10/1
Balkan Knight 10/1
Rayhani 10/1

Interesting race. Geordieland should win and on form should really be 6/4 or something and we should be getting our betting boots on. However, there has to be a real fear he's a bridle horse and that's where my prices took me. I've been on the wrong side of the obvious decisions to make in the big races this week though, so am hadly belligerent about this.

Of the others Distinction may or may not need the run; Balkan Knight looks a bit flattered for his two latest listed wins; Allegretto has been getting worked up and pulling too hard (watch in-running), and Rayhani hasn't really shown he's suited by the distance (Gerald delamere picks which I respect). That leaves Veracity, who will have to defy the trends as a 3 yr old. Not many have tried though and definitely looks an improver suited by step up in trip. 12/1 begging to be taken. We'll have to see where the market goes with Geordieland. I can see myself hedging him if enough people want to take him on.

£500 Challenge - Monthly Summary

£500 Challenge – summary

I thought (now I've worked out how to stop the blog going slow when I'm drafting!) I'd summarise progress so far with the £500 challenge.

We were doing really well up to the flood, but seem to have lost our way since. There's no doubt I lost my way for a month or so with all the upsetment, upheaval and lack of broadband and satellite.

However, despite a fairly bad run on the horses right now, I'm feeling back in the game and expect normal service to be resumed, preferably sooner rather than later!

The challenge has also been compromised by the golf bets and this week's bet may be the last in that arena. Football will be back soon anyway.

Football 6 bets – 3 wins 124% returns
Racing 22 bets – 10 wins 150% returns
Golf 4 bets – 0 wins 0% returns
Overall 33 bets – 14 wins 115%

I am aiming for around a 50% strike rate on these bets, given the usual short odds and selectivity of them. 15% profit on turnoveris better than the 10% I aim for on my normal funds, but I would really expect 20% on this fund.

Early days yet. After all this is my long term capital growth retirement fund!

Weds 1 Aug - and £500 challenge

Typical Goodwood day yesterday. You just have to grin and bear if you want to play!

Goodwood 2:15
Full House 6/1
Som tala 6/1
Esprit De Corps 7/1
Commemoration Day 9/1
Afrad 16/1
Secret Ploy 16/1
Bauhaus 20/1
Great As Gold 25/1

The front two are pretty solid and I also have a liking for two of the lightweights for a tickle in Commemoration Day and Bauhaus. Minimum play for me though.

Goodwood 3:30
Excellent Art 2/1
Jeremy 7/2
Asiatic Boy 4/1
Ramonti 4/1

I'm pretty fed up with O'Brien. Today I think he's going to use team tactics again – this time going for a blistering pace. Ramonti and Asiatic Boy like to lead or be prominent, and I reckon Archipenko and Trinity College are going to put it to them early. This should set it up for Excellent Art. Or possibly Jeremy. I'd be keener on the latter if he hadn't have hung right here last year, as he did at Ascot. I plan to back both of them. But I'll wait until late as Jeremy sweated up in the paddock at Newbury. If I do bet him I'll be hoping for a late rails surge from Ryan similar to Court Masterpiece last year.

Goodwood 4:05
One to watch rather than bet. I have “improver” notes for 6 of these and it will surely be a race to follow. Malt or Mash if pushed.

Goodwood 5:40
Mutanaseb 4/1
Minority Report 5/1
Binanti 11/1
Diamond Diva 11/1
Race to the Music 25/1
Laa Rayb 25/1

Hope I'm not on tilt by here! Minority Report looks the most likely bet at current prices.

£500 Challenge

The four losing golf bets so far are responsible for robbing us of most our profits – yet here I am again. Tiger Woods is supposedly struggling/lost focus/whatever. I've always found this the best time to back him. His WGC record is remarkable and in stroke play events he's only once been out of the frame. You can just about get 4/5 on a top 5 finish and that's well in tune with the challenge's objectives.

Woods place Bridgestone £15 at 4/5

Running Total £575.24