I thought it was time to update this page. My new trading career is going OK, not exactly going to get rich with the feeble fund/stakes I'm currently using, but long-term think it's a goer. The main problem I have is I keep on being dragged back to thinking like a gambler, especially on the horses, but I'm getting there.
Obviously it makes it hard to provide much meaningful thoughts on here. However, I am involved in a number of longer-term markets which is something to talk about, and I do still do weekend get rich quick bets. So I'll look to update this Saturdays at least..
Thoughts for today.
Good-looking cards at Ascot and Haydock.
I'll do get rich trebles around two horses who'd be in my cyber stable if I still had one.
Mr Strachan and Ellerslie George.
The three horses I'll perm them with are all cheeky goes at much more fancied horses.
Fix The Rib, Knockara Beau and Cape Tribulation.
Longer-term markets
FA Cup
My approach to this, for the first time in years, has been to go against the big 4, and look at the next most likely (Spurs/Villa/Man City and Fulham). So far, so good, with Man Utd and Liverpool already gone. I traded all bets to leave me with no liability after round three, and have re-invested a few quid on Fulham and Villa on the basis they could trade lower if there are upsets elsewhere, but will look to go back to no liability prior to 5th round draw. (Protecting the bank at all costs is the key mantra these days!).
Premiership
I surfed Man City downwards, but now they're back where they started I'm wondering whether I should do it again, but it's probably pointless. I think Arsenal are flattered to be where they are and are now trading at what could be their lowest point. They are already my biggest red but I'll increase liability to my (modest) maximum ahead of their big games coming up.
African Nations Cup
This has worked well for me so far, and I'm all green bar Ivory Coast. Will fiddle around from now on, and hope Drogba and co fall by the wayside soon.
US Open Tennis
Have a small trade on Safina – that side opening up, will hope a tired Henin falls away, but will look to turn in to a free bet at first sign of danger.
Del Potro was my trading choice on the other side, which isn't looking so healthy!
Celebrity Big Brother
Without watching a second of the show I still look in good shape, no nasty-looking red, and hopefully Nicola or Stephanie can get a late charge in past a fading Vinnie Jones.
Cheltenham
Not much in way of ante post action, as you'd expect, but haven't been able to resist double figures on :
Weird Al in the RSA (hoping Diamond Harry doesn't dot up today!)
Pistolet Noir in the Triumph
Kalahari King in the Queen Mum
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Saturday 14th November
My new life as a trader is pootling along OK. I'm probably over-protecting my bank but when it is as small as mine collapsed to I guess that's no bad thing...
Old-fashioned bets that seem playable today are a mixed bunch.
According to Pete was going to be my advice but I see Pricewise has scuppered that price. I have 30s antepost so wish me well. Isn't Our Vic over-priced as well at 33/1?
Football – The Greece and Ireland games look good draw bets, and I've thrown a tenner at them all being draws as I always do with first-leg play-off scenarios.
Rugby – Argentina can surely keep it tight for a long time. I'll trade this game, but Wilkinson to score all England's points at 4/1 is tempting (we missed no try scorer at 33/1, now 20s).
Specials – Strictly Come Dancing – how about Ali and Laila both in the bottom two at 33/1?!
Old-fashioned bets that seem playable today are a mixed bunch.
According to Pete was going to be my advice but I see Pricewise has scuppered that price. I have 30s antepost so wish me well. Isn't Our Vic over-priced as well at 33/1?
Football – The Greece and Ireland games look good draw bets, and I've thrown a tenner at them all being draws as I always do with first-leg play-off scenarios.
Rugby – Argentina can surely keep it tight for a long time. I'll trade this game, but Wilkinson to score all England's points at 4/1 is tempting (we missed no try scorer at 33/1, now 20s).
Specials – Strictly Come Dancing – how about Ali and Laila both in the bottom two at 33/1?!
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Saturday 31st October
Been keeping on an even keel, which doesn't exactly pay the bills, but is an improvement!!
Suggested football draws today:
Preston/Crystal Palace
Carlisle/Charlton
Cheltenham/Crewe
As for the racing – there's a lot of pace in the Charlie Hall – despite the weight problem you don't suppose Snoopy Loopy could pick them off late do you?
Always Waining deserved better at Cheltenham, bit worrying he's so weak this morning considering how well he was backed then. Classic Swain has been pitched in for his chance of nice prize before the winter horses are ready. Psychomodo and Alaghiraar are also eyecatchers.
I'll get rich around combos of those 5, otherwise it's back to the in-play markets for me, and hopefully Cabrera to trade odds-on soon!!
Suggested football draws today:
Preston/Crystal Palace
Carlisle/Charlton
Cheltenham/Crewe
As for the racing – there's a lot of pace in the Charlie Hall – despite the weight problem you don't suppose Snoopy Loopy could pick them off late do you?
Always Waining deserved better at Cheltenham, bit worrying he's so weak this morning considering how well he was backed then. Classic Swain has been pitched in for his chance of nice prize before the winter horses are ready. Psychomodo and Alaghiraar are also eyecatchers.
I'll get rich around combos of those 5, otherwise it's back to the in-play markets for me, and hopefully Cabrera to trade odds-on soon!!
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Saturday 24th October
My new approach to gambling (in-running and trading) requires amazing reservoirs of discipline and patience – somewhat of a learning curve for me, and yesterday I lost the week's profits in one whirl of recklessness. Twat. Football is going better then racing, but jumps racing is much more suitable to my approach than flat racing so I remain obstinately optimistic.
Looking at normal betting today, here's my three draws:
Birmingham/Sunderland
Millwall/Leeds
Gillingham/Charlton
Portsmouth are probably backable at 2/1 as well. (Liverpool are also creeeping towards backable, if everyone continues writing them off).
Racing – for tissue fans here's the Roan chase (fitness worries make it a rather sketchy tissue).
Tidal Bay 4/1
Tartak 4/1
Kicks For Free 9/2
Monet's Garden 9/1
Knowhere 9/1
Don't Push It 9/1
Finger on the Pulse 9/1
which leaves little room for manoeuvres.
For the get rich quick treble how about
Invincible Lad (Pricewise blown the value)
Elusive Pimpernel (not too much rain)
High Heeled (rain, rain, rain!).
I've done a sixfold on the horses and the draws for £80000. That's a fair day's work!
Looking at normal betting today, here's my three draws:
Birmingham/Sunderland
Millwall/Leeds
Gillingham/Charlton
Portsmouth are probably backable at 2/1 as well. (Liverpool are also creeeping towards backable, if everyone continues writing them off).
Racing – for tissue fans here's the Roan chase (fitness worries make it a rather sketchy tissue).
Tidal Bay 4/1
Tartak 4/1
Kicks For Free 9/2
Monet's Garden 9/1
Knowhere 9/1
Don't Push It 9/1
Finger on the Pulse 9/1
which leaves little room for manoeuvres.
For the get rich quick treble how about
Invincible Lad (Pricewise blown the value)
Elusive Pimpernel (not too much rain)
High Heeled (rain, rain, rain!).
I've done a sixfold on the horses and the draws for £80000. That's a fair day's work!
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Saturday 17th October
I haven't had a chance to update my football ratings since my break, so no football thoughts today.
I'll be playing Cheltenham in-running, but I have looked at the Newmarket card as historically it's been a good one for me.
Cuis Ghaire looks playable in the first. We backed him in the Guineas where he ran a cracker and is fresh here. In the Champion I like both Mawatheeq (improving and still fresh) and fear Never on a Sunday (who we backed big time at Ascot). And in the Cesarewitch how about a couple of big ones to land the treble! Dirar has a terrible draw but a more than eye-catching jockey, whilst Truckers Delight has the plum draw. Both have interesting profiles for Irish raiders and are 50/1 plus on betfair..
I'll be playing Cheltenham in-running, but I have looked at the Newmarket card as historically it's been a good one for me.
Cuis Ghaire looks playable in the first. We backed him in the Guineas where he ran a cracker and is fresh here. In the Champion I like both Mawatheeq (improving and still fresh) and fear Never on a Sunday (who we backed big time at Ascot). And in the Cesarewitch how about a couple of big ones to land the treble! Dirar has a terrible draw but a more than eye-catching jockey, whilst Truckers Delight has the plum draw. Both have interesting profiles for Irish raiders and are 50/1 plus on betfair..
Saturday, October 03, 2009
Saturday 3rd October
After a couple of terrible trading days Monday and Tuesday, I've steadied the ship and am still feeling pretty confident that this is the way forward for me.
Looking at today with old fashioned eyes my football draws would be:
Watford/Cardiff
Wycombe/Orient
Darlington/Macclesfield
(I'll do the treble just in case!)
Cheltenham look a big price against Notts Co (who have hardly set the world alight away from home so far), and some shrewd judges are talking up the chances of Portsmouth against Wolves at 11/4 if you can get it.
Horse racing – Pricewise has probably screwed the price but Border Patrol looked value against Goldikova; and in the past it wouldn't have taken much to presuade me to take on Ghanaati with Strawberrydaquiri.
As for the Cambridgeshire my three darts would be Salute Him, Brief Encounter, and, if you wanted to hit one out of the ballpark, how about Bencoolen, who I'm sure has a race in him in between all his tailed-off efforts. Trebles to win 10k...
I'm off to Chamonix for a break next week, so probably won't post Saturday.
Looking at today with old fashioned eyes my football draws would be:
Watford/Cardiff
Wycombe/Orient
Darlington/Macclesfield
(I'll do the treble just in case!)
Cheltenham look a big price against Notts Co (who have hardly set the world alight away from home so far), and some shrewd judges are talking up the chances of Portsmouth against Wolves at 11/4 if you can get it.
Horse racing – Pricewise has probably screwed the price but Border Patrol looked value against Goldikova; and in the past it wouldn't have taken much to presuade me to take on Ghanaati with Strawberrydaquiri.
As for the Cambridgeshire my three darts would be Salute Him, Brief Encounter, and, if you wanted to hit one out of the ballpark, how about Bencoolen, who I'm sure has a race in him in between all his tailed-off efforts. Trebles to win 10k...
I'm off to Chamonix for a break next week, so probably won't post Saturday.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Monday 28th September
For the last two weeks I've been playing in-running on the racing, and although it's early days I've been encouraged by what I've been seeing.
However, the profits I've made have been swallowed up by the normal bets (0-12 for the season on football draws!).
So I'm going to concentrate on in-running exclusively for the next however long and see what happens. I see this as my last (last) chance at staying full-time.
So I guess this blog has run it's natural course. Thanks to those who hung around and who enjoyed the good times and, more importantly, gave their support when times were bad. It was much appreciated in what can be a very lonely way to make a living.
I'll post an update every Saturday or so, until it's obvious no-one is looking in any more!
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However, the profits I've made have been swallowed up by the normal bets (0-12 for the season on football draws!).
So I'm going to concentrate on in-running exclusively for the next however long and see what happens. I see this as my last (last) chance at staying full-time.
So I guess this blog has run it's natural course. Thanks to those who hung around and who enjoyed the good times and, more importantly, gave their support when times were bad. It was much appreciated in what can be a very lonely way to make a living.
I'll post an update every Saturday or so, until it's obvious no-one is looking in any more!
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Saturday, September 26, 2009
Saturday 26th September
“Part-Time Fund” (£9380 – plus £250 in-play)
Just a get rich quick treble for me today, plus the football already put up, and a £2 Scoop 6 line!
The rest of the time I'll stick to in-running.
Alsace Lorraine
Redford
Aqlaam
£30 to win £45000ish!
Just a get rich quick treble for me today, plus the football already put up, and a £2 Scoop 6 line!
The rest of the time I'll stick to in-running.
Alsace Lorraine
Redford
Aqlaam
£30 to win £45000ish!
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Thursday 24th September
“Part-Time Fund” (£9500)
Still pootling along (helped by Pigeon Island's failure yesterday).
However, I will do a weekend football threeeplay, on three tight league one games.
Hartlepool/Walsall
Mk Dons/Leeds
Yeovil/Brentford
3 x £60 draws and £20 treble
Still pootling along (helped by Pigeon Island's failure yesterday).
However, I will do a weekend football threeeplay, on three tight league one games.
Hartlepool/Walsall
Mk Dons/Leeds
Yeovil/Brentford
3 x £60 draws and £20 treble
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Weds Sept 23rd
“Part-Time Fund” (£9490)
Continuing to make a few pennies in-running and stopping myself from doing normal bets in the meantime.
Couldn't resist a small season finale farewell bet on Kevin Na though at 100/1, covered by Tiger!
Continuing to make a few pennies in-running and stopping myself from doing normal bets in the meantime.
Couldn't resist a small season finale farewell bet on Kevin Na though at 100/1, covered by Tiger!
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Saturday 19th September
“Part-Time Fund” (£9480)
A bit lucky, but another winning day playing in-running. Be interesting to see if the Saturday markets are any different (easier I'm hoping!).
Not inclined to waste the profits on normal bets – so I've just done a couple of mad doubles and the Scoop 6 for a few quid (like that'll be won today!).
A bit lucky, but another winning day playing in-running. Be interesting to see if the Saturday markets are any different (easier I'm hoping!).
Not inclined to waste the profits on normal bets – so I've just done a couple of mad doubles and the Scoop 6 for a few quid (like that'll be won today!).
Friday, September 18, 2009
Friday 18th September
“Part-Time Fund” (£9320)
Another winning day. I don't feel like doing any old fashioned bets whilst I'm clawing some money back.
I was going to do threeplay draws on:
Bolton/Stoke
Burnley/Sunderland
Hull/Birmingham
but will stick with a treble just in case and throw in Redford for the four fold.
Another winning day. I don't feel like doing any old fashioned bets whilst I'm clawing some money back.
I was going to do threeplay draws on:
Bolton/Stoke
Burnley/Sunderland
Hull/Birmingham
but will stick with a treble just in case and throw in Redford for the four fold.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Thursday 18th September
“Part-Time Fund” (£9170)
I had a good betting day yesterday – all in-running bets. Laid several horses in-running, and then laid Standard Liege at half-time. Maybe this is the way forward for me. Maybe it's another false dawn!
Either way, it doesn't lend itself to blogging advice much!
I was also reassured about my dreadful start to the season backing draws – when I saw there have only been three draws in the Premierhsip so far...
I had a good betting day yesterday – all in-running bets. Laid several horses in-running, and then laid Standard Liege at half-time. Maybe this is the way forward for me. Maybe it's another false dawn!
Either way, it doesn't lend itself to blogging advice much!
I was also reassured about my dreadful start to the season backing draws – when I saw there have only been three draws in the Premierhsip so far...
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Tuesday 15th September
“Part-Time Fund” (£9120)
I was counting on the Serena money – more fool me.
The Championship is looking interesting based on my ratings. Normally this division is hopelessly competitive with every team moderate and not much of a spread. However, the early signs this year is that a group of teams look like pulling away from the rest. There may be a small edge in this for a while.
I'll start with:
Preston to beat Scunthorpe £40 win at 13/8 and £60 drawn no bet at 10/11 (or +0.25 asians)
and £20 win 6 fold
Preston
Sheff Utd
Leicester
Middlesbrough
WBA
Newcastle
at around 75/1
I was counting on the Serena money – more fool me.
The Championship is looking interesting based on my ratings. Normally this division is hopelessly competitive with every team moderate and not much of a spread. However, the early signs this year is that a group of teams look like pulling away from the rest. There may be a small edge in this for a while.
I'll start with:
Preston to beat Scunthorpe £40 win at 13/8 and £60 drawn no bet at 10/11 (or +0.25 asians)
and £20 win 6 fold
Preston
Sheff Utd
Leicester
Middlesbrough
WBA
Newcastle
at around 75/1
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Thursday 10th September
“Part-Time Fund” (£9260 – plus £380 in -play)
Decent start to weekend's football.
Let's add a draw threeplay:
Man City/Arsenal
Wigan/West Ham
Shrewsbury/Crewe
3 x £60 draws
1 x £20 treble
Away tomorrow – back Saturday but probably not in time to post.
Changingoftheguard looks a big price (though weak) at 6/1 for the St Leger, and Schiaperelli looks backable at 4/1 for the Irish version.
Decent start to weekend's football.
Let's add a draw threeplay:
Man City/Arsenal
Wigan/West Ham
Shrewsbury/Crewe
3 x £60 draws
1 x £20 treble
Away tomorrow – back Saturday but probably not in time to post.
Changingoftheguard looks a big price (though weak) at 6/1 for the St Leger, and Schiaperelli looks backable at 4/1 for the Irish version.
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
Wednesday 9th September
“Part-Time Fund” (£9240)
I can see Croatia scoring tonight – no obvious value play though.
Let's do a threeplay instead, with one international and the two outstanding weekend bets on ratings.
Paraguay beat Argentina (latter in disarray – probably fix the match though!) 5/2
Northampton beat Notts Co (latter over-hyped – and the price a bit silly) 5/1
Sheff Utd beat Derby (keeping faith with the former) 13/8
3 x £60 singles and £20 treble.
I'm away Friday (and probably Saturday) – I'll put up a threeplay draw tomorrow.
Mid-week golf madness – I'll keep going until the end of the season!
Na/Jeev Singh £10ew double and tenners on both to win.
I can see Croatia scoring tonight – no obvious value play though.
Let's do a threeplay instead, with one international and the two outstanding weekend bets on ratings.
Paraguay beat Argentina (latter in disarray – probably fix the match though!) 5/2
Northampton beat Notts Co (latter over-hyped – and the price a bit silly) 5/1
Sheff Utd beat Derby (keeping faith with the former) 13/8
3 x £60 singles and £20 treble.
I'm away Friday (and probably Saturday) – I'll put up a threeplay draw tomorrow.
Mid-week golf madness – I'll keep going until the end of the season!
Na/Jeev Singh £10ew double and tenners on both to win.
Monday, September 07, 2009
Monday 7th September
“Part-Time Fund” (£9280 – 220 inplay)
An in-running bet of unders in the England women's game at 1.8 after about twenty minutes, collected, having touched 1.2 and 2.6 in between times!
Kevin Na is in the mix. A place would land the Bradley Dredge double (£1200) and a win would land the cheeky tenner I put on him at 300/1. That would cheer the fund up. Of course, I fully expect him to have blown it by the about the 4th!
No bet today.
An in-running bet of unders in the England women's game at 1.8 after about twenty minutes, collected, having touched 1.2 and 2.6 in between times!
Kevin Na is in the mix. A place would land the Bradley Dredge double (£1200) and a win would land the cheeky tenner I put on him at 300/1. That would cheer the fund up. Of course, I fully expect him to have blown it by the about the 4th!
No bet today.
Saturday, September 05, 2009
Saturday 5th September
“Part-Time Fund” (£9360 – 500 inplay)
Weekend football not exactly started with a bang...
Today I'll add Pullein's bet – Walsall £100 at Evens (+0.75 Asians)
and actually have a flat bet (as said I will be continuing with group racing) – about the only decent win I've had on the flat this season came from this horse, so I can't say I've studied the form and priced the race up.
Finjaan £100 at 11/2
and a treble Finjaan/Kirkless/Rock N Roll Kid, and chuck a couple of quid at the scoop 6.
Weekend football not exactly started with a bang...
Today I'll add Pullein's bet – Walsall £100 at Evens (+0.75 Asians)
and actually have a flat bet (as said I will be continuing with group racing) – about the only decent win I've had on the flat this season came from this horse, so I can't say I've studied the form and priced the race up.
Finjaan £100 at 11/2
and a treble Finjaan/Kirkless/Rock N Roll Kid, and chuck a couple of quid at the scoop 6.
Friday, September 04, 2009
Friday 4th September
“Part-Time Fund” (£9780 – 250 inplay)
A small in-running win on England's women yesterday.
Weekend football bets.
I'm doing two “three-plays” - the first on the lower leagues and the second on the internationals.
Southend/Orient
Northampton/Barnet
MK Dons/Huddersfield
3 x £60 draws and £20 treble
Cyprus/Rep of Ireland
Peru/Uruguay
Argentian/Brazil
3 x £60 draws and £20 treble
And throw a tenner at the six-fold and if you want a 7fold mad one, chuck in the Rotherham game as well!
Every chance I won't have a bet tomorrow – we'll see.
A small in-running win on England's women yesterday.
Weekend football bets.
I'm doing two “three-plays” - the first on the lower leagues and the second on the internationals.
Southend/Orient
Northampton/Barnet
MK Dons/Huddersfield
3 x £60 draws and £20 treble
Cyprus/Rep of Ireland
Peru/Uruguay
Argentian/Brazil
3 x £60 draws and £20 treble
And throw a tenner at the six-fold and if you want a 7fold mad one, chuck in the Rotherham game as well!
Every chance I won't have a bet tomorrow – we'll see.
Thursday, September 03, 2009
Thursday 3rd September
“Part-Time Fund” (£9750 – 250 inplay)
I spent yesterday thinking about what the key difference between being part-time and full-time was as Anne hadn't noticed any difference! Well, obviously I should actually be spending some of my time making an income outside betting. But apart from that the key difference will be turnover.
As a full-time gambler I worked to a target-profit, based on an assumed ROI, typically requiring me to turn my bank over ten times a season at 10% profit. I actually failed to get close to my turnover targets the last two years, but it will be a relief all the same not to worry about turnover any more.
(I wish I'd properly thought that through before letting that Guccione bet run!)
Obviously that will mean fewer bets as well. So instead of a bet today here's a poem!
Be Careful Who You Sit Down With
Here's a gambling tip for free:
If Betfair is the biggest price,
And it seems too good to be true,
Before you wade in, you'd better think twice
Because someone knows more than you.
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