Racing - Weds Jan 31st

Leicester 3:10
Im Spartacus 3/1
You Do The Math 4/1
Sole Agent 9/1
Burntoakboy 9/1
John Forbes 9/1

Evan Williams horses are really not firing and that makes Im Spartacus opposable here. Not that it's easy deciding how - plus this remains my least favourite track. Burntoakboy is out very quickly, off topweight with 1 win from 26 starts. John Forbes remains a probably one-paced maiden. Sole Agent - supposedly badly handicapped says the trainer - looks big at 12/1 plus and he will form part of my strategy nearer the time. For here, no bet.

Mid-week Football

To complete a busy morning's work, here's some mid-week football for you.


Barnsley 5pts beat QPR at 5/4

Derby 5pts beat Burnley at 5/6 (an alarming drift occurring)

Newcastle 5pts beat Aston Villa at 6/5

Dubai Desert Classic Golf

I went for Ernie Els at 6/1 yesterday with a view to laying off the win portion on betfair and riding the 6/4 place element. Happy with that but can't recommend it as a bet here now the price has gone.

My golf syndicate partner insists we give Stenson another chance.

Other than that no bet. Howell looks long for best GB and Ireland player, but until I found out how fit and raring to go he is, it's a no bet.

So, no recommended points this week.

Racing - Tues 30th Jan

Taunton 4:10
Bills Echo 3/1
Stan 4/1

Stan is a tentative bet here. He's always caught the eye as a likely type and his comeback run was the same. Of course you have to forgive his last run and I don't usually go for horses in first-time blinkers, plus he's very weak this morning. Even so, he hasn't exactly got much to beat. Although not short-listed Kosmos Bleu is the sort to pop up when least expected. As the outsider of the field I may take a big price late on. Nicholls/Walsh every chance of banging a few in today.

Stan 3pts win at 5/1

Racing - Saturday 27th

Don't forget I save 3pts for all races closer to the off (including those I've already played in early on), and play a mixture of my prices (late drifters), pressing up, legitimate faves and exotics. This is proving more successful this season than the early price bets, so don't rush in! I've given an idea of what may be on my mind for later.


Cheltenham 1:00
Wichita Lineman 6/4
Tidal Bay 5/2
Zilcash 13/2
Osana 20/1
Massinis Maguire 25/1
Michael Muck 25/1
Carlitos 25/1

There's a possibility Wichita Lineman is better on a flat track. If I was looking for a way into the race (and I'm not sure I am) I reckon it would be Zilcash ew getting all the weight. For now, no bet.


Cheltenham 1:35
Flying Enterprise 3/1
An Accordion 5/1
Character Building 6/1
Ofarel D'Airey 6/1
Yes Sir 12/1
Good Citizen 12/1
Nouveau Maire 16/1
Herecomesstanley 20/1

Flying enterprise has got 4 identical ratings from me as a novice chaser, which I only give to classier animals, and none of the others have got one. Should be favourite for me and although I usually avoid novice handicaps I'll bet here.

Flying Enterprise 4pts win at 10/3



Cheltenham 2:10
Black Jack Ketchum 8/11
Inglis Drever 7/2
Flight Leader 12/1
Blazing Bailey 20/1
Irish Wolf 33/1

I wouldn't ask anyone to oppose BJK. However, Inglis Drever gave me one of my best moments in racing when winning World Hurdle and I'm sentimental enough to give him one last hurrah at 5s, without recommending him here.


Cheltenham 2:45
Our Vic 3/1
Halcon Generladais 4/1
Exotic Dancer 9/2
Neptune Collonges 9/2
Caillain Alainn 6/1

Either of the front two could win this and throw down a legitimate Gold Cup challenge. At the prices though I prefer the next two. Exotic Dancer has done little wrong and a friend has been banging on about his King George performance for weeks. This could well be Neptune Collonges race of the year, and he has conditions to suit.

Exotic Dancer 4pts win at 6/1 guaranteed
Neptune Collonges 4pts win at 7/1


Cheltenham 3:20
Katchit 7/2
Goodbye Simon 11/2
Pauillac 11/2
Predateur 11/2
Mountain 11/2
Pancake 7/1

Cracking race. Here's my notes on Katchit: "Jumps, travels, stays, loves Cheltenham"! That said, there's a pack of chasers here. I could also see myself throwing a couple of points at Pancake.

Cheltenham 3:55
Roman Ark 6/1
Vodka Bleu 6/1
New Alco 6/1
Idole First 6/1
Knowhere 8/1
Le Volfini 8/1
Bold Bishop 8/1
Cousin Nicky 20/1

I think Pricewise got this one right when he said you could back 3 or 4 and still not come close. I took Roman Ark in the week, and will also take a potshot at Bold Bishop - who won here last year and was running on in the Sun Alliance. It's a chancy throw but the price allows it.

Bold Bishop 4pts at 18/1+


Southwell 1:15
Tidal Fury 5/4
Echo Point 6/4
Archie babe 9/1

Think the front two are closer in ability than their run against each other showed, and will take on the favourite here.

Echo Point 6pts win at 15/8


Southwell 1:50
Mr Prickle 3/1
Launde 4/1
Madison Du Berlais 4/1
Ease the Way 9/1
Ela Re 16/1

I'll be keeping Evan Williams' runners on-side here. Mr Prickle is also a legitimate favourite. That siad I'll back a different one early on.

Launde 4pts win at 5/1


Southwell 2:25
Rosses Point 3/1
Mon Mome 11/2
Ever Present 11/2
Sharp Belline 6/1
Simon 11/1
Ardaghey 14/1
nadover 14/1
Umbrella Man 16/1

Rosses Point worthy favourite (though longest with Corals). Ever Present made an impression on me at kelso and I'm on, though weak this morning. Simon is an old favourite I should have given up on by now!

Ever Present 5pts at 10/1+

Football 27th Jan

Only two bets this weekend, avoiding the FA Cup.

And both away teams which is unusual.

Leicester 5pts to beat Cardiff at 7/2

MK Dons 5pts to beat Rochdale at 13/10

Racing Thursday Jan 25th

Fontwell 2:50
Classified Evens
Heez A Dreamer 11/8

I've probably actually got them a little closer to each other in my head than in my prices.

Heez a Dreamer 5pts win at 6/4


Warwick 2:10
Alfasonic 5/2
Dark Corner 9/2
Ile De Paris 6/1
The Last Cast 9/1
Desert Tommy 14/1

Looks uncompetitive race and the front two look solid. Not much juice in backing either or both but I'll probably dabble. For here, no bet.

Racing - Wednesday 24th Jan

Huntingdon 2:00
Royal Shakespeare 7/4
Another Promise 9/4
Rasharrow 9/4

I can't really have Royal Shakespeare as a chaser at all. That said he's already beaten Rasharrow (gets weight now) and Another Promise doesn't look overly tempting back at 2m. All in all disappointing. No bet.



Huntingdon 3:00
Moncadou 11/8
Dream Alliance 2/1
Only Vintage 11/2
Jaunty Times 10/1

I backed Dream Alliance the last twice. He did the job well first time but stopped very quickly in terrible ground last time. Moncadou getting 6lbs off of him should be enough but I wasn't as impressed with his Newbury run as others were. Only Vintage has started off softly softly and on the basis that the step up in trip will actually favour him, the price looks a shade long, though no doubt I'm chasing cars.

Only Vintage 4pts win at 8/1



Catterick 2:10
Thunder Rock 5/2
Welcome to Unos 11/2
The Dukes Speech 9/1
Lucky Duck 9/1
Through the Rye 12/1
Karathaena 14/1

The race revolves around Thunder Rock. Nothing excites me. Lucky Duck is lurking though and I may have a tickle late on.

Golf - Qatar Masters

Fiddling about a bit this week - early season caution - and the prices look right anyway.

Fasth half pt ew at 50/1
Jeev Singh half pt ew at 66/1
Jiminez half pt ew at 40/1

Racing - Tuesday 23rd Jan - Southwell

Southwell 3:40
California Laws 9/4
Wessex 11/2
Waterside 11/2
Prince Tum Tum 7/1
Byron Bay 10/1
Jimmy the Guesser 14/1
Pawan 25/1

California Laws wouldn't have to be that good to beat these, but it's still a step up. The price that stands out is Wessex, presumably because Callan has chosen Waterside. Given his record for placing at Southwell and the shape of the race, an ew bet seems in order. I missed the 8s but 15/2 will do.


Wessex 3pts ew at 15/2

Racing - Saturday 20th Jan

Haydock 12:50
Carthalawn 2/1
Silver Sedge 5/2
Salinas 9/2
Shares 7/1

A bit surprised to see Salinas being backed this morning. A theme today is whether to firgive a horse a bad run last time out. If you do so with Silver Sedge he has probably a favourite's chance here.

Silver Sedge 4pts win at 3/1



Haydock 1:25
Afsoun 6/4
Mounthenry 11/2
Mister McGoldrick 11/2
Arcalis 12/1
Torkinking 12/1
Overstrand 16/1

The pace seems everything in this race with four front runners. In an 8 runner race ideally I'd like to find a horse to come from off the pace to place at a big price. Both Arcalis and Overstrand are possible fits, but with plenty of doubts about them as well. I'll wait for now. No bet.



Haydock 1:55
Turpin Green 6/1
Leading Man 6/1
The Outlier 6/1
Model Son 6/1
Snakebite 6/1
Irish Raptor 6/1
Wild cane Ridge 8/1

That tissue makes it fairly clear how open I reckon this is! Will perhaps know more about the going closer to the race and may fiddle around depending on late prices. For now, no bet.



Wincanton 2:15
Principe Azzurro 5/2
Kaldouas 4/1
Go for One 9/2
No Guarantees 9/2
Mandingo Chief 5/1

Principe Azzurro cost us the other week but I thought he ran really well. He tops my novice chase ratings out of this lot, and I'm hoping he'll get into a rhythm, jump well and expose the techniques of the others, none of whom have looked particuarly fluent.

Principe Azzurro 6pts win at 10/3

Plus a three star bet (I've been fiddling around with staking on this - so just treat it as bet of the day for now).



Wincanton 3:50
Maletton 9/2
Nykel 5/1
Youllbesolucky 7/1
Almost Broke 9/1
Le Jaguar 11/1
Puntal 11/1
Iron Man 16/1
All in the Stars 16/1
out The Black 16/1

Another tricky looking race. Obviously my price for Youllbesolucky is wrong, but I have to punt him having put him in so short. All in the Stars, as you all must know by now is one of my faves having been the last leg of a large treble last year - at Wincanton. I should have deserted him by now but can't stop myself.

Youllbesolucky 4pts win at 14/1+
All in the Stars 2pts win at any price you like - say 50s.


Lingfield 3:10
Fajr 3/1
Marajaa 4/1
Happy as Larry 4/1
Vortex 12/1
Red Spell 11/1

Between the front three I think. fajr solid enough. Marajaa may just be flattered on the run behind Areyoutalkingtome, especially as his trainer was on fire at the time. Happy as Larry ran OK in a tough race last week and back in trip in slightly easier race could get back into winning ways.

Happy as Larry 4pts win at 5/1



Lingfield 3:40
Bonus 3/1
Qadar 11/2
Maltese Falcon 11/2
Saviours Spirit 10/1
Secret Night 10/1
Royal Engineer 20/1?

Qadar looks to have a bot to do in first time blinkers trapped wide though he should get the pace he needs. Maltese Falcon may get taken on for lead to do for him. Bonus looks solid. I'll hope he drifts. For now no bet.



Other three star bet.
Instead of pressing up on Orient to win, I've taken them in the Asian Handicap with draw no bet.

Weekend Football 20 Jan

Ipswich 5pts beat Colchester at 5/4

Wolves 5pts beat Cardiff at Evens

Doncaster 5pts beat Scunthorpe at 11/8

Orient 5pts beat Blackpool at 2/1

Grimsby 5pts beat Darlington at 11/8

Thinking about Orient potentially being three star material.

Racing Weds 17th Jan

Newbury 1:30
opera Mundi 6/4
Don't Push It 7/4
Private Be 9/1
Stowaway 9/1
Only Vintage 20/1

Weather will play a big part. Or a bog part. The weight allowances could be key (and make Stowaway an interesting lurker). Tissue looks right. No bet right now, but one to watch.


Newbury 2:35
Flintoff 7/2
Ice Melted 7/2
Kilty Storm 13/2
Sharp jack 13/2
Tanterrari 11/1
King of Gothland 11/1

Interesting little race. Tissue looks solid, as do front two. Kilty Storm with a lot of weight, and I'd worry about Sharp Jack after a desperate race at Wetherby that seemed to pull the guts out of Jungle Jinks for one next time out. Mind you I thought the same about the Welsh National lot last week. Flintoff available at a touch longer than should be - I'll take an early position.

Flintoff 3pts win at 4/1 guaranteed.

Golf and Victor Chandler Chase

I forgot to put up my golf bets - usually place them late Monday/early Tuesday and not only have the prices gone but Jeremy Chapman has copied me in the Racing Post!

Stenson 2pts win at 14/1 (now 12s)
Jeev Singh (of course) 1pt ew at 50/1 (now 40s)
Jeev Singh - top Rest of World - 1pt win at 10/1


Also, it's been raining all night and morning here - proper rain, flooding through the corrugated roof on my sideway. I'm like Kalca Mome in the Victor Chandler Chase, given poor conditions and the race may well cut up even more badly. I'll throw the dice early.

Kalca Mome 3pts ew at 9/1

Football - mid-week Jan 16th

A match to get stuck into tonight.

Scunthorpe (away) 5pts beat Cheltenham at 6/4


An interesting (to me anyway) aspect to this match is that I want to oppose Scunthorpe based on ratings at the weekend against Doncaster. It will be interesting how (if at all) the outcome of thsi match affects both my odds and those available.

Update

Well, I'm having a terrible January!

Last night our sneaky 40/1 pokes for the Superbowl (Baltimore) lost the last game they needed to win for us to collect ew.

Racing yesterday was horrid, and my fault because I could have predicted that before the off. The only races I liked were the all weather ones and they proved profitable. The racing in January and February is so bad mid-week that I seem to make the mistakes of (a) getting suckered into really bad races during the week because I feel I should be doing something and (b) over-compensating for the lack of turnover by attacking Saturday's card with too much verve for the quality on show or given the conditions. If there was one time of the year when I wouldn't mind a few weeks steady work this is probably it.

My Christmas break also seems to be a factor. Until then I was on top of all the racing - in particular the novice chases. However, I seem to have dropped off the pace over the break and have overlooked some basic form-book stuff. Christmas is such a busy time for racing (and football) I'm not sure I can afford to jet off to sunnier climes as usual if I'm taking this full-time gambling lark at all seriously. Not entirely sure how to broach this with Anne!

Finally, during the week, I just momentarily went on tilt and missed a last minute winner (Nippy Des Mottes - who drifted badly). This was caused by my new 5star fund. I was so wrapped up in one of those bets, and so wound up by the result that I let the last result affect my next bet. This was my biggest problem years ago, but I have mangaged to put in place strategies to train myself out of it, and for the last couple of years it has not been an issue. I was alarmed to find myself back there. I need to make sure the 5star fund (which is after all only an experiment) doesn't become a toad squatting over my proper activities.

Onwards...(and apologies to anyone falling over the cliff with me!)

Racing - Saturday 13th Jan

Warwick 3:30
D'Argent 5/1
Tana River 6/1
Mon Mome 6/1
Touch Closer 11/1
Naunton Brook 12/1
Kinburn 16/1
Ladalko 16/1
L'Aventure 16/1
Heltornic 20/1

D'Argent, bounce a worry; would also worry about the Welsh National horses; plus laventure and kinburn wouldn't look to be suited by track; Ladalko can't jump. Tana River looks a bog price this morning - Corals go shortest 13/2 and that looks much more like it than the 10/1 plus available. Of course it's Lavelle so you take your chances. Touch Closer raced very lazily at Plumpton Sunday but looked like he may get involved when falling. As I backed him then I think I'll stick with him just in case.

Tana River 5pts win at 10/1+
Touch Closer 3pts win at 20/1
half pt rev fc


Kempton 1:05
Trouble at Bay 7/4
Royal Shakespeare 3/1
Swing Bill 4/1
Ofarel D'airy 4/1

I wouldn't be bullish about either of the front two. Trouble at Bay has a penalty for beating pretty useless horses, and Royal Shakespeare just hasn't looked the part so far over fences. Swing Bill did Ok in a hot race at Plumpton and hopefully the ground will be better here. Ofarel D'airy could be underrated with the age allowance. I think the latter two should be much closer in the betting.

Swing Bill 5pts win at 6/1
Ofarel D'Airy 5pts win at 6/1
1pt rev fc



Lingfield 3:05
Areyoutalkingtome 6/4
Qadar 4/1
Hurricane Spirit 4/1

Touch ask for Hurricane. Forgive Areyoutalkingtome his run over too far last time and this is his for the taking.

Areyoutalkingtome 5pts win at 15/8



Lingfield 3:35
Happy as Larry 9/4
Orchard Supreme 4/1
Red SPell 7/1
Bahar Shumaal 7/1
Very Wise 10/1

The Pitt improver is the fly in the ointment, but I remain impressed with Orchard Supreme, this distance should be Ok. The jockey may be an issue but at the price I'll play.

Orchard Supreme 5pts win at 6/1



Fusili 12/1

Australian Open Tennis

To be honest tennis has not been great to me for a while. I usually take an early position in the majors and then play again at the quarter final stage (as with major football tournaments).

Vaidisova 2pts win at 20/1
Jankovic 2pts win at 14/1

Andy Murray 1pt ew at 40/1



Five Star Bet - Federer 10% of fund at 2/5.

Weekend Football 13th Jan

Just the four this weekend.

Blackburn 5pts beat Arsenal at 7/2

Rotherham 5pts beat Chesterfield 5/4

Barnet 5pts beat Macclesfield 13/10

Chester 5pts beat Wycombe 8/5



Three Star Bet: Blackburn to beat Arsenal 5% at 7/2

Racing - Wincanton 10th Jan

Wincanton 2:40
Opera De Coeur 11/8
Mister Quasimodo 9/4
Aztec Warrior 7/2

Tricky really, even with the two non runners. Everything says to me Opera De Coeur should win this given the allowance against two horses under penalty. Aztec is also one of Henrietta's and that stable's off-limits right now. But most of the shrewd judges I take seriously are totally opposed to Opera, and all on Quasimodo. Think this is going to cost me to go against them but here goes nothing.

Opera De Coeur 6pts win at 7/4

and more alarmingly.

Three Star bet 5% at 7/4

Racing - Ludlow - 8th Jan

Ludlow 2:30
Harringay 3/1
Dearson 4/1
Principe Azzurro 4/1
From Dawn to Dusk 9/1
New Entic 9/1
Wiscalitus 9/1
Waterloo Son 16/1

I really like the shape of this race. Harringay is a much hyped horse with only half-decent form to show for it, and Henrietta Knight's yard is very quiet. Dearson wouldn't be one of Evan Williams's stars (and stable also quiet) and Corals are longest priced about him. From Dawn to Dusk looks to be regressing, and New Entic is one to avoid. Wiscalitus is so so and Waterloo Son looks a Daly fiddler. Principe Azzurro stands out as solid. Slow though, and 2m4f will help, and if the rains come, so will they.

I'm going to play in both the horse fund and in the five star fund. I've been guilty of sitting on the 5 star fund. I seem to have a betting-button version of Eric Bristow's inability to let go of the dart! That said, the 5 star fund is really about short-priced events and it's the place element I'm really after there.


Principe Azzurro 8pts win at 7/1

Principe Azzurro 2.5% place at around 6/4 and 2.5% win at 7/1

7th Jan - Sussex National

2:10 Plumpton
Geevem 7/2
Touch Closer 5/1
Deferlant 7/1
Zimbabwe 7/1
Iris Bleu 12/1
Dunbrody Millar 12/1
Pass me By 12/1
Charbrimal Minster 12/1

My front two are way too short - not sure how I ended up there. Instead of worrying about it though, I'll back them both.

Geevem 4pts win at 9/2
Touch Closer 5pts win at 8/1+
half pt rev fc

Racing - Saturday 6th Jan

I have a stinking cold and with that and people viewing my house and desperate ground I think I'll keep it fairly simple today.


Sandown 1:35
Refinement 3/1
United 3/1
Chamoss Royale 3/1
Inch Pride 9/1
Chickapeakrey 9/1

Three in the shake-up and the prices decide it.

Chamoss Royale 5pts win at 4/1



Sandown 2;05
Bongo Fury 3/1
Bohemian Spirit 3/1
Lorient Express 4/1

No bet.


Sandown 3:10
Kings Signal 5/1
Pilca 5/1
Tous Chez 6/1
papini 8/1
Orcadian 8/1
Nyborg Madrik 16/1
Ma Yahab 16/1

Pretty open. I'll wait until nearer the off. No bet.


Sandown 3:45
Latimers Place 4/1
Preacher Boy 5/1
Kerstino Two 9/1
Nadover 11/1
Turthen 11/1
Mort De Rire 11/1
Avitta 11/1
harris Bay 12/1
Bubble Boy 12/1

Latimers Place may have gone up too much but these aren't a bunch of improvers. Bubble Boy lurks ominously if he can handle the class. One to keep an eye on for later, but for now.

Latimers Place 5pts win at 6/1


Haydock 3:25
Roman Ark 9/4
Ilathou 9/2
Nice Try 5/1
Wain Mountain 13/2

If Ilathou gets out front in a nice rhythm he could run really well here. I may try to lay off in -running though based on his latest at Chepstow.

Ilathou 5pts win at 6/1

and why not throw in a modest trixie as well!

Racing 5th Jan

Nice winner yesterday to get the year going.

Newcastle 1:30
Cloudy Lane Evens
Numero Un De Solzen 5/1
Euro American 6/1

The fave only has to repeat what he did last time out and the price seems fair.

Cloudy Lane 5pts win at Evens



Wolves 2:20
Two Step Kid 3/1
Qadar 4/1
Night Prospector 7/1

Obviously I have the price worng on Night Prospector, and clearly the consensus is he's done with winning for a while. However, considering I've knocked out some of those at the front of the market and it's an 8 runner race, I think I'd best get involved.

Night Prospector 3pts ew at 16+ (win and place on betfair longer).

FA Cup - Outright

As usual I'm dutching the big guns - it's worked for the last few years and is as close to buying money as I've ever come (hope the gambling gods aren't listening).

You can dutch Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool at 4/5. I usually do Arsenal, but as I can see Liverpool dumping them out this round I'll chance my arm at those odds.

20pts to 16

Weekend Football - FA Cup

I've used my ratings for the FA Cup ties, which could be an issue as I wouldn't be sure how well they translate across divisions. Luckily only three ties become bets.

Birmingham 5pts beat Newcastle at 7/4

Plymouth (away) 5pts beat Peterborough at 6/5

Preston 5pts beat Sunderland at 6/5

The latter may become our first "three star" bet, but I'll wait on team news and wonder why Ladbrokes are so out on a limb.

Two other matches nearly made it - Liverpool and Southend both to win - but I decided against it on balance.

Racing - Thursday 4th Jan

Fontwell 1:40
Hes the Gaffer 6/4
Sha Bihan 4/1
Jolly Boy 9/1
Walcot Lad 12/1

Not a very inspiring race. The fave is Ok but not exaclty solid, and I'm happy to take a chance that the King stable have a decent enoygh prospect. Walcot Lad does all his winning in the Spring but Corals 11/1 catches the eye, and I may have a tickle later on.

Sha Bihan 4pts win at 5/1+



Lingfield 3:30
Kipsigis 7/2
Bring me Sunshine 7/1
Theatre 7/1
Chamacco 7/1
English Jim 8/1
Alfasonic 11/1
High Hope 12/1
Methodical 16/1

I was on Kipsigis last time and am not keen on deserting him, but this looks pretty open and the price not very tempting. Instead I'm going to forgive Bring Me Sunshine his last run, and also side with the bottomweight in heavy ground. Being up in class and outof the handicap in such conditions has never bothered me, and the small stable seems to have led to a bit of value.

Bring Me Sunshine 4pts win at 14/1
English Jim 4pts win at 16/1
half pt rev fc

Racing - Jan 3rd - Wetherby

Wetherby 1:25
Smoothly Does It 6/4
Ellway Prospect 11/2
The Hairy Lemon 11/2
John Forbes 11/2
Circassian 14/1

Lightweights dominated at Ayr yesterday and will probably do so again here. I'm pretty much already committed though because Ellway Prospect is in my virtual stable after winning a thumping amount at Taunton. The 2m trip is a real worry and it will need to be a thorough stamina test to give her a chance. Also not happy that Dickie is riding instead of Jamie Moore as he looked to give up at Sandown as soon as the shoving started.

Still, she owes me nothing, and this isn't much of a race.

Ellway Prospect 4pts win at 8/1



Wetherby 3:05
Jungle Jinks 5/2
Kerrys Lad 3/1
Sharp jack 3/1
Devils Run 9/2

One of these will have a going day. No idea which one. No bet.

New Fund for 2007 - the Five star fund

For this year, I will start measuring blog performance for 2007 as well as overall since inception.

Also, I am launching a new fund. I was quite taken by Harry Findlay's articles in the Guardian and Telegraph last month and they chimed with various thoughts I had already been having. My approach over the years has been very conservative. I have been grinding away, building up each fund slowly but surely, with as little risk as possible of going bankrupt at any stage. This has served me well and I have no desire to change my overall approach.

However, I have felt for some time that I am missing out on opportunities. In particular I am not exploiting areas where I feel I should be getting my betting boots on, rather than just turning over my money. I also feel I am not exploting a current leaning (betfair driven) towards value being at the front end of the market, especially longer odds-on shots.

I also can see the sense (as a 4% betfair commission punter) in Harry's assertion that you can't make a living on 4%. Of course I'm basing that on his definition of making a living which is presumably far richer than the one I appear to making quite successfully on 4%! I have two ways of moving up a gear.

1. To continue what I do, and to continue to plough some of the year on year growth back into the funds to increase staking. My staking has after all increased about 10 fold on my horse racing stakes of only 5 years ago.

2. To set up a new fund which is highly aggressive in scope. The objective will be for capital growth as quickly as is sensible and with a willingness, at least in the early days to bust the bank. The fund is moderately-sized (a fifth of the size of my current racing fund) to allow for me to bust it without too many tears(!)but hopefully large enough to start having an effect. To be honest it is also set at a level where initially I am still betting within my comfort zone.


The fund will be primarily betfair based. Firstly, because this should hopefully help me get to higher discount levels, which will help all my funds. And secondly, because I'm finding it hard enough to get bets on with bookmaker accounts as it is and I don't want to scare any more off by suddenly upping stakes.

All well and good, but where are these new bets coming from?

I'll be concentrating on two areas.

A) Pressing up on those bets from other funds that strike me as exceptional value (naps if you like), but the constraints of the particular fund don't allow me to bet as much as perhaps I'd like.
For example I may see a football match which to my mind offers exceptional value (eg Bolton to beat Arsenal), but can only put 5pts on the bet within my football fund. Now I will be able to use my new fund as well.

B) Being prepared to have a thump at long odds on chances that whilst remaining value in my book, I've always shied away from in the past. I did start this towards the end of last year. Australia to win the ashes at 1/4 would be a good example.

The staking will be on three levels based on a mixture of confidence, price and exposure in other funds. It will also be done as a percentage of the current bank, instead of my usual percentage of starting-bank reassessed at start of every season. Hopefully, assuming an upward curve, this will speed progress.

The levels will be:
Three star bet - 5% of existing fund
Four star bet - 7.5% of existing fund
Five star bet - 10% of exisiting fund.

I will post all bets up on here. This should be of interest to the casual observer as I know some of you like to pick and choose from my recommendations. Now you'll have my own pointer as to the strongest bets.

I'll include progress as part of my monthly summaries. However, I will NOT measure this as part of my overall figures as it would distort them, and would also be a pain to keep track of on the new staking basis.

Fingers crossed!