I was going to back Barcelona last night. Cold feet, caused by losing run, and further proof as to how much better a robot would be at this than me! They were lucky mind.
Trusting to my ratings as usual, although I had 9 possible matches in mind for this weekend, but have been picky and got it down to four. I'll let you know how the 5 discarded games fared!
I'm happy to go after Arsenal again. Unlike in mid-week Blackburn are just the sort of team they hate playing.
Blackburn 5pts beat Arsenal at 9/4
Aston Villa (away) 5pts beat Charlton at 9/4
Rotherham 5pts beat Chesterfield at 6/4
Barnet 5pts beat Carlisle at 2/1
A couple of bets in the Rendlesham hurdle this afternoon at Hadock can be found on my page at:
www.escorialracing.co.uk
Running totals for blog:
Total points bet: 410
Total returned: 482.3
% returns: 118%
Points in play including above 79
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Well at least Arsenal's loss stopped the rot. Still down on the day. January may have been terrific but February's been real tough.
ReplyDeleteHi jaydee,
ReplyDeleteI'd love to think that I treated all bets the same win or lose, and was immune to the highs and lows. Alas, that's not one of my strengths.
One way I have found that helps me is I have four different betting funds - each treated like a unit trust, with set objectives, unit price, dividends etc.
When one is winning big (eg the racing fund in February), I can be fairly sure another is failing badly (sports fund). This helps to keep me on more of an even keel. In this instance I haven't got carried away by the racing success, because the football has brought me back down to earth. And I haven't got too down about the football, because the racing fund has paid a nice dividend so I can eat well in March!
Overall though, much as I try not to, I would say I do become over-confident when I'm winning and leak money on bad bets, and overly cautious when I'm losing and miss winners.
That phrase, "you're neither as good nor as bad as you think you are" is very apt.
You?
Hi,
ReplyDeleteI decide my bet size at the start of each cycle for that particular fund (eg start of flat racing season, or start of football season). It's based on anticipated "edge", size of fund and estimated turnover required to provide x profit. It's very conservatively estimated.
Like you the end result is that I tend to risk between 1 and 2% of fund per event.
As for Kelly, I used it very successfully on the horses for a few years. Well I say I used it, I used "part" Kelly - ie I reduced it to manageable proportions, but kept the flavour of it.
I still use it when I'm backing more than one horse in a race to decide on my proportional stake between the horses.
I also have a sub-fund, which I use for the occasional 5-star, premium, super-duper, hit you in the face "value" bets that come along once every few months. I use full Kelly for this fund, and that constitutes my only "get your boots on and bet like a man" type bets.
The rest is grinding really. Pick off the best prices, turnover the money, and in the long-run make your 10%, preferably without risking your sanity to do so!