Thursday 31st January

Damn, chose the wrong match for the challenge yesteday. Still, I hope some of you took on Liverpool again and the small loss on Everton is OK.

Some interesting choices today. A couple of races at Wincanton worth looking at:

3:10 Wincanton

Fleet Street 9/4

Predateur 9/4

Pur De Sivola 4/1

Gentle John 8/1

The pace of this race looks critical. There are three potential front runners and on rain-softened ground that could play into Predateur's hands. If not Pur de Sivola looks a nice price – he ran out of gas over 2m5f here, and whilst 2m may not be far enough, rain and pace could make it just about perfect to make most of the weight he gets from the favourites. The 6/1 has been snaffled up. 11/2 and even 5/1 perfectly fair. You may want to manage this bet in-running though, and not be afraid to sell it should they go off like idiots (think Mahogany Blaze).

4:10 Wincanton

Pedros Brief 7/2

Fundamentalist 4/1

Kelrev 7/1

Cossack Dancer 9/1

Supreme Prince 9/1

Tango Royal 9/1

What a terrific idea for a race. Shame there actually looks like there's a progressive horse in there! Fundamentalist looks short to me, particularly if the rains have come. Winning one of those graduation chases doesn't mean his jumping is suddenly cured. Cossack Dancer will need a soft lead and Kelrev has previously struggled when rated 133. Supreme Prince has no form to shout about but is on his lowest ever rating. Tango Royal is back on his last winning rating, runs well fresh, and usually pops up when least expected by everyone bar the stable. Both are 16/1 and, given this is a race framed to be forgiving to these sort of horses, both are worth backing, whilst keeping Pedros Bob onside.

In the African Nations cup we have another of those conspiracy matches. (Angola v Tunisia). You'd have thought this would be another no-brainer challenge bet. However, I really can see this why this one could be a carve up. Two evenly matched teams who can guarantee going through if they help each other, but who are vulnerable if they don't. At the prices I'll have to lay the draw, and will look to get out if a goal is scored. Given that tactic, I'll swerve it as far as the challenge is concerned.

So what are we left with for the challenge? Tiger Woods has just shot 65 in Dubai. Ridiculous form. Stenson can still lay down a challenge this morning with his back 9 to come. Beforehand I thought it could well come down to a simple match between the two golfers who did so well for us last week, and that already seems the case. Frankly 1.5 Tiger is perfectly fair, and if Stenson does get close today you may even get better than that.

£500 Challenge

Tiger £20 win Dubai Classic at 1.5 or better.

Wednesday 30th January

I don't much like the novice chase at Exeter today – Manhattan Boy and Malakiya are ones to oppose but the possibles are all first timers.

Looks like it'll have to be Premiership football instead. As usual Liverpool's price looks too short. West Ham look a decent bet to get something out of the game at Evens, considering my tissue has Liverpool at only 11/8 to win! (For those who like long term bets, you could do a lot worse than lay Liverpool for the top 4 at around 1.5. Of course, if I get both of tonight's results wrong that could look a hollow tip!).

However, for a change let's go elsewhere for the bet of the day. Everton remain underrated and, whilst comfortable with the notion that Ramos is getting Spurs back to something like last year's level, the fact remains that Spurs have only won one away game this year and Goodison isn't an obvious place to improve on that record. No Cahill is a worry. We can back Everton at +0.25 on the Asians at 11/10, and so get half our stake back in the event of a draw at the same price as I actually have them to win.

£500 Challenge

Everton £20 at 11/10 on the Asian handicap at -0.25

Tuesday 29th January

It was interesting (if expensive) watching Palace/Leicester last night. Two players from Fulham's early surge on show. Matt Lawrence was a young full-back who had a great game the night we went to White Hart Lane and were dumped out the cup 4-1, strangely the first vestiges of a team going somewhere. Harry Bayles (as he was known) was of the type that not only did the crowd not have a clue as to what he may do next, but neither did he. Judging by his winner last night that remains the case!

Good to see them thriving at their level. There was an amazing turnover of players over the 6 years or so we went from bottom of the league to premiership. So many of those from the early days seem to have drifted out of the game altogether.

Mind you at one stage we had Van Der Saar, Maik Taylor and Hannehman as our goalkeeping roster. Considering they are now all first choices at other Premiership clubs that was some stockpiling!

Anyway, on with the show.

The novice chases today are decidedly iffy. Robin De Sherwood looked one to take on but with only an Emma Lavelle runner needing one more run for a handicap looking credible opposition, I'll sit that one out. At Folkestone Iconoclast could improve but is up against a Henderson mare off a long break and he's been bending me over with those too often of late.

Tonight's domestic football isn't straightforward either. I have four teams backable on ratings, but can see exactly why the bookies have them at the tempting prices they do. Not least they all have trouble scoring at home. I think I'll cover them in a 'just in case' accumulator and forget them – for what it's worth the teams are Sheff Utd, Crewe, Bradford and Grimsby, and you can get over 30/1 on betfair.

So we're left with the African Nations cup. Ivory Coast would normally be something like 4/6 to beat Mali, but it's conspiracy time again and fears of a fixed draw have once again skewed the market. “Drogba's wife is Malinese”; “Economic partnerships and close neighbours” etc. Given your average African nation makes Italy look corruption-free you would be mad not to worry. On the other hand the £500 Challenge has profited handsomely from ignoring such conspiracy theories this year. I'll wade in and shrug stoically when the pass the ball amongst themselves for the last 80 minutes! It's perfectly possible to get 0-0 on your side but I'll be greedy.

£500 Challenge

Ivory Coast £20 win at 6/4+

Monday 28th January

A good weekend and the challenge fund tiptoes over £900. Which didn't look very likely last summer!

A readjustment is imminent no doubt, and as we only recently upped stakes I'm inclined to stick with current staking for now.

French Saulaie would be a bet today around Evens but for now I'll stick with tonight's football.

Crystal Palace are on fire and can stretch their unbeaten run at the expense of a revamped Leicester side. We can back Palace on the asians not far off where I have them priced outright. Of course my prices are wrong but getting half our money back in the event of a draw seems perfectly reasonable.

£500 Challenge

Crystal Palace £20 at 5/4 at -0.25 Asian handicap.

Sunday 27th January

Irish Champion hurdle today – I'll skip the FA Cup.

As you know my ante post bets for the Champion Hurdle are tied to Osana's wings. I have back- ups in Ebazaiyan and Sizing Europe who both run here. I took long odds about Ebazaiyan partly because the going and Cheltenham suit him so well, but mainly because I backed him at 500/1 odd for the Supreme last year. Sizing Europe had to be a bet if believing Osana's form lines, and of the Dylanesque persuasion that the old order is rapidly fading.

Not hard to expect Sizing Europe to win today then. I wouldn't say 3/1 was value, but it is fair, and may drift even more.

£500 Challenge

Sizing Europe £20 at 3/1

Saturday 26th January

Kruguyrova continues to be my new Persian Punch. That was actually the sort of race to divide value bettors and growth bettors the world over. I'd say 6/4 and better about Kruguyrova was a damned fine bet even though it lost, whilst others would say the fave was better value since it actually won! I'll stick with my canoe.

A few tissues today:

Cheltenham 2:10

Nacarat 4/1

Private Be 6/1

Patman Du Charmil 6/1

Maljimar 6/1

New Little Bric 6/1

Time TO Sell 20/1

My front three have all done me well this year. Private Be on the other hand hasn't. Dickie (my least fave top flight jumps jockey – a Richard Hughes of the sticks) gave him a woeful ride in the Mackeson as was. Hopefully he'll be ridden with a bit more sense this time. If so, he looks a long price this morning. I'll try to keep my other faves on-side.

Cheltenham 2:40

Simon 4/1

Our Vic 4/1

Neptune Collonge 4/1

Madison Du Berlais 9/2

State of Play 7/1

Our Vic doesn't seem to get up the hill over this trip and Neptune Collonges probably needs softer and may be a bit short first time out. Madison Du Berlais has been running well and there may be more to come over this trip. Simon remains in very good heart. Both of them were thought to prefer flatter tracks but have run respctably enough at Cheltenham this year. I'd rather be with them than the front two.

Cheltenham 3:50

Inglis Drever 6/4

Blaxing Bailey 9/4

Millennium Royal 9/1

Sonnyandjoe 12/1

No-one can turn me off my favourite Inglis Drever. I remain of the mind that the horse doesn't receive the respect he's due, probably not helped by his admittedly strange way of running. However, if there's a horse that likes the downhill stretch on this track better than him I've not seen him. He's weak this morning – on the back of rumours of being held up in work, and on Blazing Bailey's defeat of him in this race last year. I'm not overly worried about either of these, (more worried about dear old Dickie being on top), and would happily back him on the drift.

Doncaster 3:00

An Accordion 8/1

Opera Mundi 9/1

Yardbird 11/1

Bagan 11/1

Juveigneur 12/1

Rambling Minster 12/1

Ungaro 12/1

Brooklyn Brownie 25/1

Thistlecraft 25/1

Ligo de Louge 25/1

Probably not my finest tissue. It's the sort of race I've turned against over the last couple of seasons. At the prices there are three who you'd give chances to as long as you were forgiving. Juveigneur has threatened to win a big one and likes races like the Hennessey where he can travel at pace over a trip. The going should allow that to happen today. The Reveley pair Rambling Minster and Ungaro unfortunately both prefer righthanded tracks but probably need to come late in big fields. Doncaster is one of the best tracks to do that and if we can get a few nutters loose up front (in truth there are no obvious pace horses but big fields on faster going than expected usually hare off), one of them could come through late. Tentative for sure, but all three have a touch of class and I don't think this will be the war of attrition it usually is..

£500 Challenge

Inglis Drever £20 at 7/4 guaranteed.

Woods and Stenson doing just fine, so far.

Friday 25th January

My entry into Shifnal society is almost entirely complete. Tonight I have tickets to the hottest show in town – a 'flicks in the sticks' showing of Atonement in the village hall, £3.50 plus tea and cakes.

I believe we'll be singing Jerusalem afterwards.

So let's see if I can find the cash to pay for this society highlight.

Regulars should look away now as we are back with Kruguyrova. Big Buck's hasn't impressed me much, not least his errant apostrophe! I priced them up at 5/4 each of two, so 6/4 this morning is a no-brainer and 11/8 also fine.

£500 Challenge

£20 win Kruguyrova at 6/4

Thursday 24th January

Three interesting novice chases today. All tricky enough though, so I think I'll continue what looks a theme of the week and build a portfolio for the challenge bet.

Warwick 2:40

Sobers won for us last time, but to be frank was lucky to do so. He'll need to jump much better over these fences. Pauillac has been no great shakes as well. They both look vulnerable. Stolen Moments and Good Company have nothing to recommend them other than their stables but they wouldn't have to be up to much to cause an upset here.

Fontwell 1:50

Interesting shape to this race as well. The Henderson horse could be anything but looks short for her debut. Oscar Dangron is now 0-15. You need to excuse the next two, but Russian Around could well have 'bounced' last time, and Victorias Groom benefitted from a quiet confidence booster last time that will have done her the world of good. At the prices they are very backable.

Fontwell 2:50

O'Maley is going to have his supporters on strength of two course and distance wins. He jumped slow and to the right throughout last time though, and only his engine got him home against some poor horses. Air Force One remains potentially high class. The going is a worry but he was OK last time, and who knows he may even drift to a tasty price.

I think I'll aim for the trebles as well.

£500 Challenge

Air Force One £12 win at 4/5+

Russian Around £2 win at 8/1

Victorias Groom £2 at 15/2

Good Company £2 at 11/2

Stolen Moments £2 at 13/2

Weds 23rd January

I am interested in the chases at Huntingdon today.

The novices chase includes a few I'd have doubts about. Flying Falcon hasn't looked to be getting home; Antonius Ceasar beat nothing last time after looking a bit of a dog before that; and La Briar Soul is probably worth taking on under a penalty. Stoway may improve for the step up in trip but will need to. All in all a trappy race. Sherwoods Folly keeps catching the eye, despite having run down the field behind a couple of these. He was much better last time, and Daly targets this race. I remember Jaunty Times coming into this in similar vein. In particular I'm taken by the fact he has a decent handicap mark to exploit but has chosen to re-oppose some of these here. I priced at 9/2. 7/1 has gone. 6/1 still looks fair.

The handicap chase is full of horses to discard. Georges Boy at the bottom looks the only one with any obvious potential. I'll wait on prices, espcially with the dead eight.

For the challenge though, and with some trepidation, we are going to tiptoe over to golf for the first time in ages. Like the Racing Post tipsters I feel the favourites this weekend look slight value, given their respective course records and the lack of contenders with obvious similar course form.

£500 Challenge

Woods £10 win Buick at 5/4

Henson £4.50ew Qatar 11/1

£1 win double at around 25/1

Tuesday 22nd January

Well done Villa – a nice push for my top 6 bet on them as well.

I've spent the last hour thinking about how to play tonight for the challenge. There's three matches where I quite like the prices and will play in the football fund, but none of them quite enough to want to plunge.

Arsenal look like they may play a few first teamers tonight and I'd give them something like a 65% chance of getting something from the game if that were true.

Luton are being written off by odds compilers understandably, yet Martin Ling today talked of how well they played despite being beaten by his team Orient. Bradford look on the rise against a team who have lost the plot. 7/4 on both is much longer than my ratings would have them.

I think I'll mix it up and spread the daily bet around a bit.

£500 Challenge

Arsenal £10 +0.5 at 1.7+

Luton £4 win at 7/4

Bradford £4 win at 7/4

Away win treble £2 at 20/1+

Monday 21 January

Challenge fund up to £815, about time this particular wave crashed!

Maybe tonight with my habitual betting against Liverpool. I usually only do this when they play away, and their home record should make anyone pause for thought. However I'd be happy getting 4/5 on Villa getting something from the match and we can get that with them getting a goal start, which is decent insurance.

£500 Challenge

Villa £20 at 4/5 or better, getting 1 goal start.

Sunday 20 January

Mahogany Blaze was a bit of a choker yesterday – although some people seemed to know that the front two would cut each others throats. Even I traded out some of my bet in-running and transferred it to Wee Robbie (this was some roadtest in dial-up speeds, and I hardly got value!). However it remains a luxury the challenge fund lacks.

I'll be interested in the size of the placepot at Wolverhampton today – being the only surviving meeting.

Other than that I think I'll escape the Shropshire rain and sit supine in front of bad sport wishing I had something a bit more amenable to in-running betting than dial-up internet!

Everton will carry the weight of the challenge money today. I think they are just about still under-rated and the market looks to be slightly overplaying the loss of their African players, and a supposed improvement in Wigan under Bruce. It could be a bit like the Bolton game last night though, especially in bad weather so we'll keep the bore draw onside.

£500 challenge

Everton £17.50 at 11/8

0-0 £2.50 at 9/1

Saturday 19th January

As expected BT Broadband have cocked up yet again, so no broadband until next week. So I'll be short this morning and just give you the challenge bets.

Ascot 2:20 looks a straightforward match to me and I wouldn't like to call it. That makes Mahogany Blaze a no-brainer bet at the prices this morning.

In football, I like Darlington to beat Mansfield at 5/4 but that price has gone this morning, so instead we'll go for a piece of the Newcastle madness.

As a Fulham fan it's obvious I've a soft spot for Keegan. But the market this morning is ridiculous. I can't get Bolton's price close to the bookies no matter how I try.

£500 Challenge

£20 win Mahogany Blaze 9/4

£20 Bolton at 5/4 getting half a goal start.

Monday 14th January

This is the week I try to move Sky and Broadband from the flat to the house. Given that's taken three weeks the last two times I tried it, this should be as frustrating as ever. My postings on here are likely to be accordingly sporadic.

A coupe of decent novice chases at Fekenham this afternoon. Helen Wood looks to have some fair competition so I'll stick to the first of them, and chance Cathedral Rock improving for the step up in trip. He looked as though he had a quiet introduction last time, and this opposition isn't strong. Harringay is now 0-7 in novice chases for example. He's being backed this morning but 7/4 or better is fine.

The £500 Challenge

Cathedral Rock £20 win at 7/4+

Saturday 12th January

I won't be able to play during the day today, so have had to play early.

Warwick 1:25

Verasi 6/4

Old Benny 6/4

Interesting prices in this match, or rather re-match. Regulars will know I'm a Verasi fan and having been unlucky for us at Exeter he atoned at Lingfield. The ground is perfect. The money is all for Old Benny though and it is easy to see why. He has the weight turnaround for his debut chase, his trainer is unafraid to reoppose, and is 70% with novice chasers at the track. All of that doesn't mean to me Verasi should be a 2/1 shot and I think the market's over-reacting. I'm on.

Warwick 2:30

Trust Fund 11/2

Arnold Layne 11/2

High Chies 11/2

Not Left Yet 7/1

Kilbeggan Blade 9/1

Blue Splash 9/1

Sixo 11/1

Naunton Brook 20/1

Trust Fund amazingly weak this morning. He was very well backed at Newbury so that's interesting. Arnold Layne priced on McCoy as much as anything and there does look to be a lot of pace in the race, which has to be a worry for some of these in this ground. High Chimes looks the obvious one, as an unexposed stayer – and this plod through the mud should be ideal. Of the rest Kilbeggan Blade looked better than just a plodder at Sandown, has paid the price for that, this will suit but topweight a worry. Blue Splash's jumping went to pot at Cheletnham and maybe the class rise did for him – the fences here come thick and fast. Nauton Brook could get into a rhythm but remains badly weighted and won't be gifted a lead. Not Left Yet and Sixo are typical Pipe grit in the vaseline jar. All in all a tricky race.

Warwick 3:00

Souffleur Evens

Nenuphar Collonges 9/4

A match similar to the Verasi race. Nenuphar Collonges has already beaten Souffleur. However the latter won in good style last weekend and the trainer has called the Cheltenham race an aberration. That race was run on terrible ground, which suited Nenuphar Collonges much more. However, the same looks to be true today. This time we have Alan King on-side and he's being backed this morning.

What's the betting the wrong King horses win! Still, I'll play the treble and for the challenge:

£500 Challenge

Verasi £20 win at 2/1

Nenuphar Collonges £20 win at 3/1

Friday 11th January

Removals van coming early. My 4th move within 8 months. Heartily sick of it. No bets.

Thursday 10th January

Hereford the place for the novice chase today.

Missis Potts should go well off bottom-weight; Overstrand showed a glimmer of life last time and should be better suited to going back right handed here; Robin de Sherwood is weak this morning but Nicholls has his usual top record at the track. All of which leaves Battlecry with a lot to do. He's giving weight all round and each drop of rain diminishes his chances. He was the only horse to give Hobbs Hill a race last time, and regulars know how highly I regard that one. Even so, I can't have him at better than 4/1 on my tissue. Rather than back Missis Potts first time out, I'll take the more cautious option of laying Battlecry. Greed is nudging me towards a place lay but for challenge purposes let's tread softly.

£500 Challenge

Lay Battlecry to lose £20 at 3/1

I've been looking at the evening placepots and am convinced there's a real opportunity here. The single evening AW meeting Weds, Thurs and Friday are attracting pools over 100K. As the tracks are deserted this must be betting shop punters – doing small interest perms or 64 line x 10p type perms. I understand the mentality of these punters and don't find it hard to see how we can overcome the 27% deductions in winning when they lose. Even the meetings with no runners (like Wolverhampton yesterday and tonight) are potentially playable given the tendency of betting shop placepotters to load the first and second faves in 5,6,7 runner races. I intend to play for the duration of the all weather season as my new research project.

Old mucker Slipperytoad also has an idea about the chaotic nature of some of these races, and we may be able to get some synergy going from our two approaches. I'll let you know how we get on, and draw up some rules based on research, but in the meantime it's definitely worth checking out..

Wednesday 9th January

Was interested in Modicum today. 2/1 on probably fair for a horse that's come second in arguably the best two novice chases run in the north this season. And I envisage the Rose Davison knockers being happy to oppose at such a short price – wouldn't be surprised to see 4/6 if there's any money at all for one of the debutants.

However, the weather at Musselburgh gives pause for thought. Water on the bends and still blowing a gale. Quite apart from likely non runners Modicum wouldn't want it to be a slog. So a watching brief for now.

That left me with the football, but my ratings don't help me get an accurate enough picture on the strength of Arsenal's kids, and I tend to avoid the big derbies generally.

I had a rather bad last minute to the Chelsea game last night. (I was going to back Chelsea to win, changed my mind late on and went for Under 2.5 goals, and was just about to close that bet when Chelsea scored the 3^rd!). Just the sort of 'bad beat' that I'd rather avoid over the next few weeks.

So, not hard for me to leave the daily challenge alone today.

Tuesday 8th January

Moving house (yet again) is going to mess up my rhythm (yet again). It should take a couple of weeks to sort out the move properly so there may be intermittent postings until then, and if I feel I have lost my way then the only sensible thing is to cease trading until I'm more settled in the new house.

The signs may be there in this rushed decision.

Jack The Giant looks too short for the big race at Leicester. Nothing against the horse, and the oppostion are horses I usually oppose. However, there's no guarantee that this trip will suit Jack – especially at Leicester. And he won't be helped by any rain, nor if Iron Man decides to take him on from the start. Add that to the trend that he's best on his first two starts and you have sufficient doubts to build a case against an odds-on shot.

£500 Challenge

Lay Jack The Giant to lose £20 at 1.75 or shorter.

Monday 7th january

A lovely walk in little Switzerland today. I realise I'm biased being a reluctant but self-imposed exile here, but Shropshire really is England's hidden secret. That said those hills have put me off a walking holiday in "big" Switzerland.

Missed out on Kruguyrova and so she'll remain a troublesome horse! She's definititely decent though. Well done Stoke.

I have to baby-sit the carpet fitters at our new house Monday - so no bets.

Sunday 6th January

I was all prepared to back Stoke today for the challenge, but since I did the ratings on Thursday I've been increasingly uneasy about the bet. It is based on my ratings but I'm not sure how well they correlate across divisions (which is why I usually give cup games the swerve).

I would have wimped out and gone for Kruguyrova instead. However, I fear she is going to be one of those horses I always get wrong. We backed against her first time up when she won and were with her when she lost. I don't think I want to continue that in a match bet too.

Instead I'll go for a walk on a beautiful day – up what my wife calls “little Switzerland”. These Salopians are so cosmoplitan!

So Stoke it is – but let's keep the draw on side.

£500 Challenge

Stoke £20 Asians +0.5 at 1.75

Saturday January 5th

An uninspiring day. I need to be careful, especially if the rains come.

Sandown 2:05

Howle Hill 5/2

Master Minded 9/2

All Star 11/2

Jericho 111 10/1

I was tempted to put up Howle Hill as the challenge bet, but worries that the ground may turn heavy puts me off. A watching brief. Jericho 111 has no headgear, but could get own way in front – and is a big price on a course that favours horses that can get into a rhythm. Potentially a back to lay.

Tolworth Hurdle – Musing on possibly opposing the front three in the market and hoping for an upset. Probably just watch.

Sandown 3:45

Principe Azzurro 5/1

Erics Charm 6/1

Limited Edition 6/1

Crystal Dainay 7/1

Aztec Warrior 10/1

Patricksnineteenth 10/1

Principe is a horse in and out of my imaginary stable. After the last race when he was given a ridiculously quiet ride I thought he may be aimed for a big festival handicap. I can't see how winning here will help. Caution. Crystal Dainay looks a big price in comparison to Erics Charm, who could have company for the lead from Florida Dream.

Chepstow 12:50

Sobers 7/4

french Saluaie 2/1

Oscar Dangron 7/2

OD now 0-14 over fences, and this is French Saluaie's first try. Sobers was running a good race at a course that wouldn't really suit (wincanton), and these conditions should be ideal. He's the one for today's challenge bet.

£500 Challenge

Sobers £20 win at 2/1

Friday January 4th

Duc de Regniere looks to gain some experience today. We can easily afford to miss this, and my racing fund will sit it out unless he drifts. However, I've found I've quite liked the discipline of turning the challenge into a 'daily bet'.

£500 Challenge

Duc De Regniere £20 win at 1/3+ (2/5 available if betfred allows you a bet!)

Thursday 3rd January

Fontwell 2:20.

Mighty Matters is in my imaginary stable – he was feeling pretty lonely with just Hobbs Hill for comapany, but Celestial Halo and Khyber Kim joined him over the weekend!

Topweight against a couple of improvers is a worry, as is the prospect of snow getting into the ground. On the other hand I priced him up at 7/4, (Souwester could well bounce).

£500 Challenge

Mighty Matters £20 at 5/2

Wednesday 2nd January

Let's review the challenge so far.

Current Standing £697

Football – 27 bets/15 wins 146%

Racing - 85 bets/36 wins 112%

Total - 121 bets/55 wins 111%

As with my other funds, for the first time the football bets are outperforming all other bets. Whilst this is pleasing I rather need to get the racing bets back on track. On reflection, now that the fund has been running for a while I see that I am understaking. This takes into consideration the higher strike-rate/shorter odds and the fact that I'm only playing level stakes. Also, whereas (see frame opposite) I was going to bet on three levels I have only bet on the minimum level since turning the challenge into a daily nap bet.

I think the bet level should probably be £25 currently. However, the past has taught me big jumps like that are nearly always a disaster so I'll split the difference and pray it doesn't coincide with a losing streak. We're a bit behind target towards April, but after the travails of the summer I can live with that.

So, let's kick off the new year.

The racing looks tricky with Jean Le Poisson and Air Force One both odds on and yet with doubts about them. So, let's go with Bolton. The price is probably only just fair but the way they dispatched Wigan and Birmingham should be enough to see off Derby, who it is true have started scoring but were gutless against Blackburn on Saturday.

£500 Challenge
Bolton £18.50 win at 8/15
0-0 £1.50 at 12/1