“£500 Challenge Bet” (£807– 2 bets running)
Let's give Great Leighs a chance today. In the big race Pinpoint looks like he'll struggle in a race not run to suit, and Secret World should be having a gentle comeback, and could be buzzy. Many Volumes carries a penalty. Muttajarred could get a soft lead here and I'd have him around the 5/2 mark personally. I haven't fully decided how to play the race. I could dutch both the front two should Many Volumes drift, or I may just back Muttajarred, hope he gets loose on the lead, and be prepared to trade in-running. As usual I'll keep it easy on here.
Muttajarred £20 win at 7/2
“Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank too many bets running to work it out!)
(A horse race that was hopeless and Germany made me look and feel a mug yesterday. We've already done 16 bets this week. Clearly I've fallen into the trap of looking on all shorties as opportunities and not thinking critically enough. I need to add some rules to my approach. No bets today – we still have a load of tennis matches pending – whilst I firm up my approach.
Here's three obvious rules.
Set a limit on daily bets – I'd say 5. Whilst we need to be flexible I clearly need to calm myself down and stop myself chasing every possibility.
Look to have good reasons for backing AND good reasons for laying – eg the tennis player backed should be a solid winner AND the opponent should have negatives.
Avoid all situations where there can be “tanking” - eg international friendlies(!), and various tennis matches.
I would be interested in your thoughts on this subject. Baseball bets go live on Monday and during my experimental phase averaging 3 or 4 bets in the Under’s/Over’s and the same number in the Win market so need to prune this down a bit.
ReplyDeleteSounds like a similar poser to mine with the barking bets toad. Do you bet systematically against whatever benchmarks you've set, or do you set a daily limit on bets and if so, how?
ReplyDeleteYour staking plan may help you set the paramaeters. Say you were betting 5% of your starting bank per bet (not unlikely on Even money shots) - how much of your bank would you be willing to wipe out in one disastrous day (or week)?
Or trust your algorithms and bet like a robot.
Or tighten up the prices you're willing to bet at to exclude some games that are coming out as games at the moment.
Or start off doing them all, and then build in new qualifying rules in the light of experience.
That's closest to what I've been doing on barking bets, but I've been winging it to be honest. I have settled on a five per day maximum simply to calm myself down.
Knowing your enthusiasm...!
At the moment I am trusting my algorithms which include pricing each match and betting like a robot when there is perceived value.
ReplyDeleteKick off is on Monday and of course betting real money will alter my P/L so planning a stake of 2% of fund..
See you on the other side ... ...