“£500 Challenge Bet” (£939 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
No bet today – ratings lean towards Middlesborough but Man City are scoring too freely to play that one.
Off for a few days now – back Saturday.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3202)
“Snippet of the day”
“It's not the despair I can't stand; it's the hope.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£939 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
At the risk of playing just the one tune I'm again siding with Wycombe tonight. Their lack of goals make them an attractive team for bookies to go after, especially if they can attract multiples. We can cover 0-0 and still get value according to my ratings.
Wycombe £28 win at 8/13
0-0 £2 at 14/1ish
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3357)
Small win yesterday on Young Mick's race. Three maidens early on today – 1:30; 1:40 and 1:50 could provide for an interesting half an hour. Later on Bubbly Totti looks worth a go at 1/3ish for the Greyhound St Leger.
“Snippet of the day”
Continuing the theme of favourite rhymes, a gem of a poem (TS Eliot eat your heart out).
“A bit of talcum
Is always walcum”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£939 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
No bet today.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3302)
At least this fund is standing still! Probably have a day off today.
“Snippet of the day”
Another Bacharach, or rather David, classic for Slipperytoad – one of my favourite ever rhymes:
“What do you get when you kiss a guy
You get enough germs to catch pneumonia.
After you do, he'll never phone you”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£969 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
I was in a foul mood last night. When Anne went to bed after a bizarre Phil Spector documentary I fired up my laptop to look at the Breeders Cup results, only to see the Europeans had won everything – Conduit even. I was on tilt, no question, and drunkenly fired off a salvo in the big race, and then fifteen minutes later woke the house up as I roared Ravens Pass home. Who says chasing doesn't pay!
Somewhat more sober this morning...and if I'd lost I'd probably still have the bedcovers over my head...
Football. I was all set to back Portsmouth this morning, but then see Harry has jumped what is probably a sinking-in-debt ship. That certainly tempers enthusiasm. On the other hand Fulham remain one of the few teams likely to be unable to take advantage (only 5 away wins in over two seasons), and I could imagine a real closed-ranks atmosphere at the ground today. Plus they've now drifted to a very big price. I'll halve my bet but still play.
Portsmouth £13 win at Evens (or as close as you can get)
0-0 £2 at 10/1
Aintree 3:15 £15 dutched Oslot/Monets Garden/Voy Per Ustedes at 4/6+
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3212)
Did two races yesterday, but not the ones I mentioned here. This fund really is a wait and see one. Maybe something at Aintree today, and/or the Wincanton novice hurdles sponsored by Nicholls, and maybe football in-running. I think I'd rather take Murray at 1.1 to win the tennis than Garcia at 1.2 to win the golf, but both could be considered.
“Snippet of the day”
“How can they justify banning me for four years? I rode only 8 of the horses, yet I'm banned from all racecourses, training yards and all sales worldwide. I can't make a living, yet Paul Blockley, who trained all 11 of the horses, got only two and a half years, and he can still live in the yard.”
(The power of rationalisation underpinning just how institutionally diseased this sport is. And the crowd cheered him into the winning enclosure...turkeys truly will vote for Christmas).
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1029 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
I could have the afternoon off and get back for early evening, judging by today's bets!
No surprise this one as he's the only horse to have really delivered for us this year, and bet of the day is Sixties Icon at the Breeders Cup. He's the class horse in the race and has been winning races this year with one burst of acceleration off slowish fractions. Looks an ideal way to finish off. I've no idea how the prices are going to go – so up to you whether to take 2/1 or wait, I'll do something like half and half.
As for football, the ratings threw up Southend (but they let in too many goals away); Wycombe (but I've had enough of the draws!); and Brentford (but Shrewsbury have been hurting me). And Reading, where I can't see the downside. It seems to me that QPR are still being overrated by the compilers. We'll focus on them alone, though I have done a sixfold chucking in Portsmouth and Villa as well.
Sixties Icon £30 at 2/1ish
Reading £30 at 8/11
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3032)
Seem to be stuck at the moment – there are a few possible races today – 1:35 and 3:15 Aintree, 2:20 and 4:35 Chepstow – but far from definites. Maybe football in-running.
“Snippet of the day”
“LA is a great big freeway
Put a hundred down and buy a car,
In a week, maybe two, they'll make you a star.
Weeks turn into years, how quick they pass;
And all the stars, that never were
Are parking cars, and pumping gas.”
(Bacharach is getting all the plaudits on his visit – let's not forget the brilliance of Hal David the lyricist)
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1034 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
Tampa get it back level. Could be a long one!
Scratching around a bit for a Friday, but let's go for:
Fakehnham 3:50 Scots Dragoon was Ok last time and should defy a penalty against a couple of interesting newcomers. First Feerie gets all the allowances though.
Breeders Cup Fillies – Halfway To Heaven has all the form, it's a question of whether O'Brien's horses have anything left, and her race tonight may help point the way to his runners tomorrow. We can build a portfolio around her and the US favourite, adding a couple of outsider fancies at around Evens.
Scots Dragoon and First Ferrie £15 dutched at around 1.5
Halfway To Heaven/Wait a While /Visit/Sealy Hill £15 dutched at around Evens
“Barking Bets”
(Banked £1175/Current bank £3032)
No bets yesterday and no obvious bet today.
“Snippet of the day”
“It is just like the Mugabe regime in Zimbabwe”
(You couldn't make it up).
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1034 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
World Series started badly and 10 of last 11 winners of game 1 have won series apparently.
Our Champions League treble looks much better.
Carlisle's novice chases interest me today. Exact state of ground, possible non runners (Palomar in particular) and drifters all make it more of a watching brief for now though.
I liked Astarador's debut and as the best hurdler he should put his experience to good use and could well defy the penalty. He had a very soft lead last time though and there's some nice horses here. Tot O'Whiskey wasn't so impressive and is up in trip here, but has an easier task, depending on the view you take about Nine De Sivola, who I'm keen to oppose first time back.
Astarador £15 (possibly dutch with Crocodiles Rock)
Tot O Whiskey £15 (possibly dutch with Mr Barbacle).
Sorry not to be more definite. I'll post my final decisions below, closer to races.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3032)
A good decision for once – to avoid Bath.
I'm also liking football matches that are 0-0 half-time, with the much better home team not yet winning. Chelsea last night – could back them and 0-0 at decent dutched odds.
“Snippet of the day”
“Your time is coming, don't be late”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1064 - 4 bets inplay – accounted)
The Wycombe saver came into its own last night.
I looked at the Chelsea game half the morning before deciding it represented a barking bet maybe, but definitely not a win bet at the price, despite the current form of both sides.
Which left me scratching around until I remembered the World Series starts tonight. So, for a change, I'm pitching in with the Rays.
Despite last week's golf fiasco I'll persevere at a reduced stake this week, on even bigger no hopers!
Tampa Bay win World Series £26 win at 1.7+
Steve Webster/Anders Romero
Ryan Moore/Brian Davis 4 x 50pew doubles
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £2832)
My troubles are coming in pairs recently – and Exeter really is a terrible track for me. I need to avoid it in future in this fund.
Today probably Ok to lay Roma at 1.1, and possibly back Inter Milan at 1.2
Racing, I'm tentative but Bath 2:00 and 3:00 and Southwell 4:20 are possibles.
“Snippet of the day”
“When sorrows come they come not single spies, but in battalions”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1057 - 4 bets inplay – accounted)
Should have dared yesterday!
Today there's some decent racing at Exeter.
It's hard to get my head around just how many decent chasers Nicholls has and his crop of novices look like adding to it. TheTotherOne may not live up to his brother's antics but I'm looking forward to seeing him anyway. Gone To Lunch jumped very poorly here last time and looks worth taking on, although you could go the barking bets route here instead. (I may yet swap this bet over with Reading below – I need time to mediatate on that one – but may as well put them up here as is.)
Ruby has a couple of decent rides prior to this one, I'll try and get the money without having the bet.
As for football I'm going to stick with Wycombe, who Corals look to be after based on their stumbles the last couple of games. It's true they are struggling to score, but I priced them nearer to Evens.3:40 Exeter TheTotherOne £12.50 win at 4/6+
Ruby Walsh first three rides £2.50 treble
Wycombe £12.50 beat Barnet at 7/5
Wycombe 1-1 £2.50 at 6/1
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3346)
As well as the novice chase above, the 2:10 and the 3:10 also look playable at Exeter.
Also Reading should be shorter if possible against Doncaster. Sort of football banker that goes tits up of course and maybe should be in the above fund.
Reading £330 at 1.44
“Snippet of the day”
“When the world falls apart some things stay in place
She takes off the Four Tops tape and puts it back in its case”
RIP
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1057 - 4 bets inplay – accounted)
I looked closely at the Man City game, especially as my ratings give the edge to Newcastle at current prices. But in the end common sense kicked in! No bet.
“Snippet of the day”
“And indeed there will be time
To wonder “Do I dare?” and “Do I dare?”...
In a minute there is time
For decisions and revisions that a minute will reverse”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1060 - 4 bets inplay – accounted)
Off walking this morning and will probably miss some of an informative looking card at Kempton. So stuck with football. Just as well after yesterday!
Firstly I'm going to follow a tipster myself. Kevin Pullein is a terrific writer on football. Who hardly ever bets. And when he does find a price he considers out of line the bookies usually adjust it immediately anyway. However today not only does he think he's found a price that is very wrong, but also the bookies are standing it (there is a reason for the difference of opinion). I don't have any view on the matter at hand myself, but have followed him in. It's usually worth it.
Secondly, I'm going to oppose Spurs this morning, although I can see the money coming for them. My ratings price them up at 11/8 for this, so I'm hardly screaming value. However, Stoke are very solid at home, and Spurs have still only won two away league matches in 2008 – against Reading and Derby. Of course Stoke belong comfortably in that bracket and Spurs must improve sometime. On the other hand they are hopelessly short of ideas up front, and look just the sort of side to collapse under the long throw-in.
£15 Barcelona/Bilba under 11 corners at Evens
£15 Stoke +0.5 at 1.8
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3032)
Horses good yesterday. I'm finding in-running football bets fit this fund well. So far! Man Utd and Chelsea in play yesterday after slow starts. Recovered the tennis losses anyway. Been a few weeks since a dividend though.
“Snippet of the day”
“The winner takes it all
The loser standing small”
Our newsagent has Abba on a constant loop, as do I now this morning!
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1032 - 6 bets inplay – accounted)
Felt like Fragrancy should have won yesterday. I did manage to include Dee Ee Williams in my other play, but as he went unmentioned I won't count that as a winner here.
Today.
3:10 Newmarket
Trends demand that we go after New Approach – it really does seem hard to hold form that long, and he did look to have had enough in the Irish champion stakes. If I was a bookie I'd be going after him and ducking Russian Cross, and, unsurprisingly, that's exactly what Corals are doing. Earlier in the week I took Traffic Guard (at worse prices than available now) and can see him running a big race.
Russian Cross £10 at 4/1+
Unsung Heroine £15 at 9/4+
Russian Cross/Mamlook/Unsung Heroine £2.50 treble
Russian Cross/Missoula/Unsung Heroine £1.75 treble
Russian Cross/Talenti/Unsung Heroine 75p treble
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £2756)
Back chasing. Novice chasing in fact!
Chelt 2:50 Not sure of exact perm yet
Chelt 5:10 dutch front two
Kelso 3:15 dutch front two
“Snippet of the day”
“When are we gonna learn the lesson,
When are we gonna stop all of these victory processions.”
(Ok – so it's about war really, but still...)
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1032 - 6 bets inplay – accounted)
Newmarket 3:45 has a nice shape. Spacious is opposable, over the trip and with the stable still in the doldrums. Barshiba throws in the odd great race in group races and then regresses in easier grade and plenty of the others look erratic or done for the season. The one horse who not only looks solid, but looks to be improved over the trip is Fragrancy. She may well find one too good on the day but looks decent place material.
Cheltenham 5:50 is full of likely sorts. However there is an angle into the race – called Alfie Flits – who is increasingly looking a dog, and not one to charge up the hill with verve and gusto. Also, David Pipe is 0 placed from his last 30 runners (a bad omen for my bet of Mamlook for tomorrow!), so his earlier runners have to be watched carefully. Sagredo and Unfurled are both interesting, watch the market on the former, and Balding's hurdlers always worth noting. Hobbs farms this race so the keystone of any bet is going to be Cockney Trucker. Am not sure what I'll do at the moment but for here say we'll dutch the first few without Alfie and Big Eared Fran at somewhere between 6/4 and Evens.
Newm 3:45 Fragrancy £3 win at 8/1 and £12 place at 6/4ish
Cheltenham 5:50 – something like Dutch Cockney Trucker with Sagredo/Unfurled/Show Winner £12.50 at 5/4ish
£2.50 treble Dreamcoat/Fragrancy/Cockney Trucker
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3066)
At around 9pm last night I was swearing about cheating Russian tennis players (conveniently overlooking my own poor judgement in backing someone who had played 6 weeks in a row and who had just qualified for the masters). At 9:30pm I suddenly had a thought. Hadn't I placed the bet on Betdaq rather than Betfair? In whch case it would be void. And so it came to pass that I went to bed in an altogther better frame of mind. Remarkably lucky too, as I had backed the Azarenka match with Betfair. I've never liked Betfair's one set rule – it seems to me one of many instances of them being quite happy for sharks to shear us sheep as long as they get their cut. I'll press up on that luck today and continue to use Betdaq whenever I can, as long as someone matches me!
1. Azarenka beat Garringues £310 at 1.28
“Snippet of the day”
“And the words of the prophets are written
On the subway walls, and tenement halls”
(For my step-niece-in-law – or whatever – who has just been caught tagging Tewkesbury. To avoid being caught in future she should probably learn not to write her own name!)
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1062 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
Fantastic miss by Stevie Gerrard – good man! Had to be happy with the outcome, despite the luck, given that my original thought was to back Belarus getting 1.5 goals.
No obvious bet today. With Cheltenham and Newmarket dominating the weekend I may as well put up the weekend's ratings-based football bets (which are struggling this season so far).
Crystal Palace started slowly but the wily old goat looks to have them back on an even keel and I have them much shorter to brush aside a woeful Barnsley. Scunthorpe look an underrated side and although Cheltenham score freely which is a worry, the price has tempted me in.
Crystal Palace beat Barnsley £16 at 4/5
Scunthorpe beat Cheltenham £12 at 5/4
£2 six fold Crystal Palace/Scunthorpe/Wolves/Huddersfield/Walsall/Wycombe
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £2867)
Played two of the three races yesterday, although all three won.
Tennis – Zvonareva beat Garrigues £310 at 1.17
Tennis – Azarenka beat Nicolescu £310 at 1.2
Greyhounds Sunderland 8:00 £310 Dutch Traps 3 and 5
Greyhounds Sunderland 9:10 – possible dutch 1 and 3 but worried on T2
“Snippet of the day”
“Footfalls echo in the memory
Down the passage which we did not take
Towards the door we did not open..”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1047 - 4 bets inplay – accounted)
I'll have another go at England. Belarus's results are somewhat strange – friendly draws against Argentina and Germany, they beat an understrength Holland and yet lost at home to Luxembourg. I think England should win by one, which is a lower supremacy than they are – no surprise there after a few wins. We could seek out Belarus at +1.5 on an asian somewhere, but that would include some results I wouldn't be keen on, so I'll dutch some correct scores.
I also fancy four ew doubles on the golf – I may make this a new feature as a mid-week 'get rich quick' scheme. This is pinsticker stuff mind.
Dutch Belarus v England scores £25 1-1; 0-1; 0-2; 1-2; 1-3
Westwood/Mahan 75pew
Westwood/Johnson 75pew
D Howell/Mahan 50pew
D Howell/Johnson 50pew
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £2725)
Hope I was the only one who played the horses yesterday.
Three possible races today:
Lingfield 4:00 – dutch front two
Wetherby 4:20 – dutch front three
Wetherby 4:50 – dutch front two
but don't be surprised if I skip!
“Snippet of the day”
“What might have been is an abstraction
Remaining a perpetual possibility
Only in a world of speculation”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1047 - 4 bets inplay – accounted)
Average Tuesday – no bet.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3161)
A stab at the snooker and some possible races today.
2:10 Leicester – probably able to dutch front three
2:20 Newcastle – just possible – but will probably leave be.
Snooker Ronnie £310 beat Liang Wenbo at 1.28
“Snippet of the day”
“Found this parka on a dead man
Jamie got a couple of knives
Countryside crawling with maniacs
You gotta survive.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1047 - 4 bets inplay – accounted)
Phil Taylor yet again – easily our most profitable tactic this year!
Can't see a bet today.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3161)
Nothing obvious on a typically quiet Monday. Did well to avoid the NFL yesterday – lesson learnt!
“Snippet of the day”
This weekend's favourite commentary naturally came in the darts. TS Eliot can sleep soundly.
“Call for pizza, call for pop,
Cause this excitement
aint gonna stop.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£992 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
I spent a lot of last year opposing Nicholls' horses on what turned out to be dubious 'value' grounds. Not a mistake I intend to make this year. Today he starts his assault on the Irish championship with two likely second season sorts. I'd expect at least one of them to win what look pretty uncompetitive contests.
Dear Villez £10 at 15/8+
Marodima £20 at 8/11+
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3161)
Good day yesterday for this fund at least – back to our high-tide mark. Nothing obvious today though. I looked at the Washington Redskins but all I know about NFL I learnt from three months working in a sports bar in Seattle 25 years ago!
“Snippet of the day”
(I'll continue the song)
“We come on the ship they call the Mayflower
We come on the ship that sailed the moon
We come in the age's most uncertain hours
and sing an American tune
Oh, and it's alright, it's all right, it's all right
You can't be forever blessed
Still, tomorrow's going to be another working day
And I'm trying to get some rest
That's all I'm trying to get some rest.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1022 - 6 bets inplay – accounted)
I'll skip the racing today. Crack Away Jack did the business for us at Cheltenham but still think this is a watching brief bar a get rich quick treble with other stable horses – Ice Tea and Crow Wood!
Which leaves football. I was going to just play the England game. However, it seems as though Kazhakstan are blooding their under 21s and that does make the game more unpredictable than I was expecting. At the same time one of my ratings-based matches has become more compelling with the news that Peterborough are severely injury hit in defence. I'll play both. (Reasons for the England bet should be pretty obvious for anyone regular).
England Under 3.5 goals £13.75 at 11/10
England win 4-0 £3.75 at 13/2
Walsall £12.50 win at 13/10 (11/8 available for those with the right accounts)
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £2941)
Wales (usually get the job done eventually!) £280 at 1.18 to win
2:35 Chep - £280 dutch the front two
3:25 Bangor also a possible.
“Snippet of the day”
“And I don't know a soul who's not been battered
I don't have a friend who feels at ease
I don't know a dream that's not been shattered
or driven to its knees
but it's all right, it's all right
for we lived so well so long
Still, when I think of the
road we're traveling on
I wonder what's gone wrong
I can't help it, I wonder what's gone wrong”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1052 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
I remember why I always used to go on holiday the week after the Arc now! Still no bet.
I'm off to London this afternoon for a jolly with some old city friends – assuming they are still in jobs by then. So, no posting tomorrow, so I guess I may as well put the weekend league football up now.
Wycombe are flying right now and I have them prices as odds on against a woeful Grimsby. The latter could be too short simply on the halo affect a change of manager is supposed to have. Wycombe's games have been tight affairs and Newell's first objective will be to keep a clean sheet.
The other ratings' picks can easily be discarded on closer investigation, but we'll stick with our so far failing objective of nailing a multiple!
Wycombe £25 win at 11/10
0-0 £2.50 at 11/1ish
£1.50 fourfold Northampton/Rochdale/Colchester/Walsall at 40/1ish
£1 fivefold Northampton/Rochdale/Colchester/Walsall/Wycombe at 80/1ish
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £2877)
Things must be bad – I've been pulled into a tennis bet.
Zvonareva bt Hantuchova £280 at 1.23
“Snippet of the day”
This was mentioned on TV last night and brought back some memories.
X Ray Spex
Patrik Fitzgerald
The Clash
Steel Pulse
Tom Robinson Band
The line-up for the 1977 Rock Against Racism rally in Victoria Park which I attended, aged 15, against the express wishes of my elders, and which remains a big moment in my life. Patrik Fitzgerald was bottled off stage by a crowd of expectant punks and departed with the anguished squeal:
“If you hate the fuckin nazis as much as you fuckin hate me, god 'elp 'em.”
Safety-pin stuck in his heart indeed
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1057 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
Can't find anything that appeals today.
I'll drip feed some more into the Strictly Come Dancing Xmas fund though! I still see top woman as a two horse race. We can dutch them at 6/4 still.
£5 dutch Christine Bleakley and Cherie Lunghi top woman at 6/4
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £2877)
There are a few maidens at Nottingham – but not one of them looks playable currently. An interesting novice chase at Exeter also. Frustrating lack of opportunities so far this week though.
“Snippet of the day”
“Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world.”
(Or, to put it another way, what's happening to my Halifax shares?!)
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1042 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
Belle Vue's big dog race is the bet for me today. The two Bohernas are the best dogs. Trap 1 gets a flyer and he should win. If it's a race, Trap 4's class could kick in. The others need mishaps or their best race ever.
9:45 Belle Vue Dutch Traps 1 and 4 £30 at 1.5
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £2877)
Looks like another empty day.
“Snippet of the day”
“She finally finds Jimmy down the Italian cafe
When he's drunk it's hard to understand what Jimmy says.
Then he mumbles in his coffee and he finally roars,
It's a rat trap Julie, and we've been caught.”
(In honour of the ratcatcher who is hopefully going to sort out our infestation!)
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1072 - 4 bets inplay – accounted)
Liverpool cheered me up a bit shortly after yesterday's sulk!
Phil Taylor is an obvious start to the week. He has won 7 of the last 10 here and is in the best form of his life. On the other hand the format makes the first round a lottery and the three times he's lost has been in the first round. Ladbrokes are already 8/11. You can wait for the second round and hope for 4/5, you can dive in now and hedge on Baxter (equivalent to 4/5), or trust to luck.
£25 win Taylor at 6/5
£5 Baxter beat Taylor at 9/2
It's also time to cut the losses on the Arsenal trade – they should be about 3 points clear by now! This may be the worst price they are for a while but I'm all for cutting and running instead of sitting and hoping. We can get out with around a £12.50 loss, less if you go all against Arsenal.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £2877)
Better day yesterday. Still in catch up mode. No obvious bet today.
“Snippet of the day”
“Watch what you say or they'll be calling you radical,
Liberal, fanatical, criminal.
Won't you sign up your name, we'd like to feel you're
Acceptable, respectable. presentable, a vegetable.
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1065 - 6 bets inplay – accounted)
The Arc is looking a bit of a mess at the moment. Apprently there are doubts about Zarkava running, plus Duke of Marmalade, plus we need to wait on the going. So, all I can say is I'll be opposing the front three and one horse I'll definitely back is Getaway. So, let's put him down here and then wait and see.
Football is easier.
I can't quite believe I'm doing this, having opposed them away for years, but Liverpool look too big against Man City. The latter are an even more extreme example than QPR of prices being skewed by money rather than substance. That bet is a ratings based one. But I'm going to add a hunch bet – Villa to draw at Chelsea. 3/1 is the right price on paper, but Chelsea are struggling with injuries down the spine of their side and a rampant Villa is a tough test – the draw price should probably be shorter to account for that – as a layer I'd definitely have gone shorter.
Getaway £3.75 ew at 12/1
Liverpool £15 at 13/10
Villa/Chelsea £7.50 draw at 3/1
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £2727)
Bugger. Not a good week for racing bets. Maybe that's a warning shot across the bows to tell me that the season is sliding to a muddy messy end.
“Snippet of the day”
“I would walk 500 miles...”
(My wife not back yet and no word since late last night. I was awake listening to the rain most the night!)
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1067 - 7 bets inplay – accounted)
Ochoa and Campbell still in the mix.
Here's my Cambridgeshire tissue:
Ask the Butler 9/1
Swop 9/1
Yaddree 10/1
Premio Loco 11/1
Prince Kalamoun 11/1
Fifteen Love 20/1
Ada River 20/1
Master of the Arts 20/1
Virtual 20/1
Military Power 20/1
Mias Boy 25/1
Caravel 25/1
Obviously I need to up the ante post bet on Ask The Butler. The draw is a worry – all the pace looks high. Similar applies to Swop and I think he could drift late on. I'll add Ada River to the portfolio from a cracking stable and my mother in law mentioned an old TV character the other day in passing. She knows nothing about racing and whilst I don't believe in synchronicity I've kept looking at the name ever since so superstition bids me play!
In the other big race I had thought to back Darjina but the price has gone now. Festoso could have significant improvement in her and I'll play a sneaky 20/80 on a fresh horse.
Ask The Butler £5 at 14/1+
Swop £5 at 10/1+
Ada River £2.50 at 20/1+
Charlie Farnsbarns £2.50 at 50/1+
Festoso £1ew at 50/1 and £3 place at 8/1+
Football:
How good are QPR? I think their league position flatters them and that they are still being priced up on money rather than results. The win at Villa may also be flattering to deceive. Birmingham on the other hand look proper promotion contenders. They have lacked goals so we'll cover as usual.
Birmingham £25 win at 10/11
£2.50 0-0 at 10/1
£2.50 fourfold Birmingham/Brighton/Colchester/Rochdale
I forgot to mention the latest SCD bet. Austin Healey only needs to stand up to get highest score this week as his main competitor is looking pants in practice. There is an injury worry over Healey and the best prices have gone, so I'll leave you to decide if 4/6 suits.
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3037)
Played all three races yesterday – and the main one let me down, so no dividend this week..
1. Longchamp2:55 Dutch Yeats and Kasbah Bliss £310 at 1.2ish
“Snippet of the day”
“I would walk 500 miles...”
(For my wife who has just left to do the Longmynd 50 mile walk – a 24 hour slog over Shropshire's highest hills. 100mm of rain forecast overnight. Bless!)
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1069 - 7 bets inplay – accounted)
At least the golfers are in contention.
I'm going to have an old fashioned racing day at Newmarket – and centre it around Elsworth (who loves getting a big priced winner here) and Cumani (who looks to have targeted a few here), focusing on some horses who have won for us, and some who have frustrated us. All of these are weak in the market so this is a day for caution whilst I indulge myself.
1:30 Snoqualmie Girl £3.75 at 9/2+
2:05 Dutch Bankable/Eagle Mountain/Stubbs Art £12.50 at 5/4+
4:20 Speed Gifted £5 win at 11/2+
£1.25 double Snoqualmie Girl and Stubbs Art
£2.50 double Bankable and Speed Gifted
10 x 50p doubles Elsworth's 5 runners
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3117)
Unfortunately I played the 2:00 at Newmarket yesterday and so wasted the week's hard won profits.
Hexham 4:30 Dutch front three £310 at 1.2ish
Other possibles Lingfield 2:30 and Hexham 3:25
“Snippet of the day”
“We work our jobs,
Collect our pay,
Believe we're gliding down life's highway
When in fact we're slip sliding away.”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1099 - 6 bets inplay – accounted)
UEFA cup football doesn't interest me at all. So instead here's a couple of bets which I couldn't describe as value but are competitively priced.
Racing: Wingwalker looks like he could be pretty useful. The price looks fair but there are a couple of useful looking opponents so I'll cut the bet again with....golf!
Lauren Ochoa looks back in the groove and 2/1 in this select field also looks fair.
Wingwalker £20 win at 4/6 guaranteed
Ochoa £10 win at 2/1
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3377)
(Seems to have been a very quiet week. There's a few UEFA cup games that look obvious, but after big away wins the sides may well be putting out their reserves so I'll skip.)
1. Newmarket 3:10 £310 dutch front three at 1.2
“Snippet of the day”
“A world lost,
A world unsuspected
Beckons to new places,
And no whiteness (lost)
Is so white as the memory
Of whiteness”
“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1120 - 5 bets inplay – accounted)
That late equaliser of Derby's scuppered a nice treble and they need to be avoided for now, but a decent night's work all the same.
Today we'll dabble in the Champion's League. But first we need to do what has become a weekly event and back Michael Campbell, this time for the Dunhill Links Championship. The boy's done well so far, just needs to get the win now.
Football: The prices on Chelsea and Liverpool look nothing special (as with Man Utd and Arsenal last night!). They are both solid defensively though and for a change I think I'll bet on them keeping clean sheets against teams who'd be happy with a draw. Lastly, our ante post treble of Inter Milan, Barcelona and Chelsea to win their groups could do with beefing up. Football trebles were invented to kill gamblers and no wonder Victor Chandler are offering “enhanced” odds. I'll be a mug for the day.
Michael Campbell £5ew at 22/1
Liverpool keep clean sheet £7.50 at 1.8+
Chelsea keep clean sheet £7.50 at 1.9+
Treble Chelsea/Inter Milan/Barcelona £5 at 10/3
It's also a good time to review our Strictly Come Dancing portfolio, where what I've seen just confirms my early bets. So let's top-up – drip feeding is the only option on this market anyway.
Healey £2 win at 7/2
Bleakely £1.50 top woman at 4/1
Lunghi £1.50 top woman at 5/1
“Barking Bets” (Banked £1175/Current bank £3377)
Just played the one race yesterday. The Warwick one was a non starter – just as well!
There's loads of maidens today but none that appeal. Besides I need to go and pick my dog up from the vets after he attacked a car yesterday and came off quite a lot worse.
“Snippet of the day”
“I'm a New York City boy born and raised.
But nowadays I'm lost between two shores.
LA's fine but it aint home,
New York's home but it aint mine no more.”
(On the other hand not many Tooting gardens can boast their own sparrowhawk!)
