2009 - a new challenge

I've decided 2009 will be a consolidation year. Failing that, it will be my last year fully "professional".

Actually I won't be wholly full-time in 2009 either, which is why I can take this approach. I will be doing a little bit of work here and there to oil my creaking finances. My four years so far could be described as great, good, bad and mediocre. Realism dictates three strikes and I'm out.

The new fund (the 1% fund) is actually a reversion to the tried and trusted methodology I used when I was "semi-professional" a few years back. I'm hoping the more conservative staking, and reduced need for monthly income will do the trick for me, both in terms of capital growth, and in terms of my peace of mind.

I will post up clear bets in the morning as usual. However, I will then pursue bets during the day - for example in-running, and trades - that won't be announced beforehand. The following day I will list all bets made, with comments. Hopefully that will provide both some decent tips and an interesting narrative. No doubt I will prove occasionally brilliant, usually average and often imbecilic, with the odd tilt thrown in for good measure.

The bets won't change much. I'll still be doing tissue-based racing bets, and ratings-based football bets. I'll also be able to detail ante-post bets, and long-term books and similar.


I am continuing with the "barking bets" separately as these have been the one bright light of 2008 and should continue to grow and provide a small income in 2009. If I could get that fund up to around £10k I'd be able to remain full-time in 2010 regardless of the success of the 1% fund. Hope springs eternal!

Monday 29th December

Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current bank £2930)
Stake down to £300.
Mussleburgh 1:15 can dutch front two at a stingy price.
Newbury 2:45 if prepared to take on Junior – dutch front two at 1.2






Apologies for stop start nature of blog over festive period. I'll be starting a new fund for 2008 so bear with me.

Sunday 28th December

Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current bank £2930)
Winners but a loser – and a miserable looking fund – needs work in new year.


£500 Challenge Bet (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

A couple of football bets for Sunday.

Foolishly perhaps, I'm going after Man City again – Allardyce to improve Blackburn - split 45 win at 13/8+ and 55 draw no bet at 4/5.

And Colchester appeal at odds against at home to a poor Orient side. 100 +0.25 handicap at 1.7.


Apologies for stop start nature of blog over festive period. I'll be starting a new fund for 2008 so bear with me.

Friday 26th December

Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current bank £3080)
Sorry, haven't time to go into any details, but possible races today at Sedgefield, Towcester and Leopardstown.


£500 Challenge Bet (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

I'll stick with Briareus to sneak a place.

Man City look opposable this afternoon – they really are in a rotten state. Split bet 25 Hull win at 4s and 75 Hull +0.5 at 6/5



Snippet of the day
“And it all comes down to you
Maybe once, maybe twice.”

Wednesday 24th December

Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current bank £3080)
Nothing.



£500 Challenge Bet (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

Here's a KingGeorge tissue:

Kauto Star 6/4
Voy Per Ustedes 7/1
Air Force One 9/1
Imperial Commander 10/1
Our Vic 10/1
Tamarinbleu 20/1
Snoopy Loopy 25/1
Briareus 25/1
Albertas Run 25/1
Exotic Dancer 25/1

I have to say I can find more reasons not to back these horses than I can find favourable reasons. Kauto Star – well I can afford to let him win at 5/4 off the back of a few moderate runs; Voy Per Ustedes doesn't do it for me; nor do last year's novices; Twiston-Davies and Pipe are hardly firing; Imperial Commander looks a Cheltenham horse; Our Vic and Exotic Dancer have had their chances in this. The only horse I keep looking at is an old favourite – Briareus. OK, so he has a couple of stone to find, and hasn't exactly ever looked like a 3 miler. That seems in the price. On the other hand he loves the track, and remains open to a lot of improvement. It's a flyer for sure, but I'll go for an each way Xmas punt.

Football and Rochdale look too long against continuously overrated Shrewsbury. I don't appear to be alone in this as the odds are shortening. I'll split 1% 40 win at 5/4 and 60 draw no bet at 4/6.




Snippet of the day
“Got on a lucky one, came in at 10/1”

(Christy Moore sings “came in at 18/1” when he covers this song – I hope he asked for the fractions.)

Tuesday 23rd December

Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current bank £3080)
Damn – I hate losing the first bet of the week. And chances to get it back this week may be thin on the ground.



£500 Challenge Bet (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

Well done Everton. No bets today, I may put up some Boxing Day thoughts tomorrow, otherwise I'll be back Boxing Day itself. I have the full complement of in-laws around. Hope you all have more fun!



Snippet of the day
“You fought 'er off with a water pistol. I bloody love you.”

Monday 22nd December

Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current bank £3420)
Hereford 3:10- Front two playable with cautious eye on a couple of lurkers.


£500 Challenge Bet (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

It's easy to see why backers are all over Chelsea tonight. Everton without any forwards, and poor at home – whilst Chelsea have a perfect record away from home. They haven't played anyone half decent yet though. To be honest I think they should be closer to Evens for this, and granted it's with a little trepidation, but I'll oppose them. 1% bets allow us to play more underdogs than hitherto and I'm fairly confident the prices are sightly wrong here. Split the bet 20/80 - Everton 20 win at 5/1 and 80 +0.5 at over 5/4.





Snippet of the day
“Eat your heart out Emily Pankhurst. This isn't tying yourself to the iron railings. This is taking down the tungsten curtain.”

(Sid turning it up to 11 last night!)

Sunday 21st December

Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current bank £3420)
A good day.

You can tell how low my confidence has fallen over the last 18 months though. Strictly Come Dancing was in pretty much the same position last night as when Darren Gough won. Boy, did I get stuck in that night. One of my bets ever bets. Whereas last night, instead of topping up at what looked like Christmas-come-early prices, I watched the show through my hands.



£500 Challenge Bet (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

Good football; shame about Miss Mitch, who ran a cracker; and I'm still kicking the furniture at letting Niche Market go off unbacked.

Football prices look right today.




Snippet of the day
“It's not the cough that carries you off,
it's the coffin they carry you off in.”

Saturday 20th December

Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current bank £3240 – scd bet unaccounted)
Two possible races today.
1:50 Newcastle – dutch front three at around 1.2
2:00 Haydock – dutch front two at around 1.15
I may skip the latter – Doctor David is a mulish character and may play up on course, and Kalahari King is my only ante post Fetsival bet so far, so don't want to be doubly scuppered. Certainly bet late if at all.

Then pray Tom falls over the line in SCD.



£500 Challenge Bet (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

I forgot to add yesterday that Southend are gash. Still, wait till you see today's advice John.


Wolves are fairly priced to beat Doncaster – bookies still pricing the latter on their attractive play rather than their end product. I'm splitting my 1% bet 65 Draw No Bet and 35 win.

Bournemouth have the captain out injured, and a benchful suspended. Dumped out of the cup by non league opposition midweek they now play the up and coming side in the division. No wonder they're drifting. On the other hand Bury look to be in a completely false position – an easy fixture list helping. I can't help myself – forgive me. 1% split: 30 win and 70 draw no bet.

Ascot. The Graduation Chase looks a match. However, Gwanako has to recover from an Aintree horror, and doubts still linger about the stable. My Petra looks much more solid, though the distance may be an obstacle. Miss Mitch is the lurker. She looked to be about to have a great future over fences before injuring herself at a water jump and losing her way last season. This looks exactly the sort of race to get her back on track – I've gone ew at 14/1, (7 runners I know, but you can see one of the faves blowing out and the rest aren't up to anything), and had a small ew double her and Alsaada in the Ladbroke, for the sport. 1% in total.




Snippet of the day
“You go from second hand to almost new.”

Friday 19th December

Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current bank £3240 – scd bet unaccounted)
Looks like being our quietest ever week.



£500 Challenge Bet (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

Phil Taylor has been the brightest part of this fund over the last year – certainly my Sports Personality of the Year. He's now down to 4/7 for the biggest tournament of all – I think he may finally have found his price. I'll leave it to you whether to keep playing up your winnings or not. I'll play a modest 1% but that'll do me. There were signs last time out that he isn't nailing the doubles as he was mid-season. He still has that air of Tiger Woods invincibility about him though, that makes the rest of the players beat themselves.

Football – the ratings are useful at showing team's progress or otherwise. They tell me that Southend are the same side as they were at the start of the season, and so are Hartlepool. Southend's way record has been the problem and explain tonight's prices. I'll play 1% on Southend – split 20 win at 9/4; 35 draw no bet at 5/4; and 45 +0.5 on the Asians at 1.75. Overall that returns 2.2 for a win and 1.1 for a draw.

Ascot. Tricky looking card. Certainly no barking bets. I've been playing some of the chase handicaps “barking bet lite” style as an experiment this months – hopefully will launch as part of this fund in new year.



Snippet of the day
“The odds are good but the goods are odd.”

Thursday 18th November

Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current bank £3240 – scd bet unaccounted)
A frustrating week this week.



£500 Challenge Bet (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

I'm going to close this fund, and open another one, so that I can actually put some bets up here!

I have some work for over Xmas/early January. This will ease the worries of producing an income from an aggressively-staked fund on a losing streak. So, I think I'll scale back and return to the 1% staking approach that served me well for years and get some capital growth going. I'm tinkering currently and will launch the new fund January 1st.



Snippet of the day
“Your time is coming, don't be late”

Wednesday 17th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1375/Current bank £3240 – scd bet unaccounted)

After last night's setback – nothing doing today.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

No bet today.

“Snippet of the day”

“Women who wait and wait and wait and wait

And wait. Before they know it they're thirty-eight.

It's them not the cradle that's rocking

And time isn't ticking it's tocking”

Tuesday 16th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1375/Current bank £3540 – scd bet unaccounted)

1:20 Folkestone – dutch front two around 1.15
Greyhounds – Wimbledon 7:40 dutch traps 1 and 2

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

No bet today.

“Snippet of the day”
“She was interesting, smart and attractive and for about 5 minutes I had her convinced I was also”

Monday 15th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1375/Current bank £3540 – scd bet unaccounted)

Taken our kicking in the cricket – pretty poor and terrible way to start a series. India will feel invincible now.

No obvious bet today.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

No bet today.

“Snippet of the day”
“There's a lone soldier on the cross
Smoke pouring out of a box-car door.”

Sunday 14th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1375/Current bank £3840 – scd bet and cricket unaccounted)

Sehwag making the cricket bet look a bit dodgy right now! Get him out and we should be able to relax, otherwise we'll have the dubious consolation of having lost to one of the great test innings.

And as for Strictly Come Dancing. I actually complained to Ofcom last night (what on earth am I turning onto?), given that voting for Tom had been rendered a waste of money, once the judges had given the girls joint-top. This show has treated the voting public with enormous contempt this year. (There has been little or no comment on the fact the judges did exactly the same thing last year – and that it really does stink of collusion – but that's a digression for conspiracy theorists to get their teeth into).

Anyway, their response to what must have been a lot of complaints looks like it may create more problems for them, so god know how that bet will turn out now.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

Portsmouth complete the weekend football – which has been almost entirely focused on teams that are weak home team favoruites in matches where the draw is a big runner. I'd have them at Evens at worst to be honest, and will continue to split my bet, this time 40% home win and 60% draw no bet.

“Snippet of the day”
“Lily had already washed all of the dye out of her hair.”

Saturday 13th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1375/Current bank £3770 – scd bet unaccounted)
12:00 Doncaster possible and laying India in the cricket could have some merit if England can remain only 3 down at close of play.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

What a shame about Cheltenham – that looked a great card.

Leaves us with football.

The ratings did well last night with Lincoln. They throw up three possibles today, all similar.

Stoke should be shorter to beat Fulham, (I'm afraid), Plymouth to beat QPR, and Rotherham to beat Aldershot (despite recent form). The draw is a big player in each match though, which explains why the bookies want to take them on. I'll play 1% on each, split a third on the win at around 6/4 in each case, and two thirds on draw no bet at around 4/5 in each case.

“Snippet of the day”
"He felt the heat of the night
Hit him like a freight train”

Friday 12th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1375/Current bank £3770 – scd bet unaccounted)

Cheltenham not the place for these. A frustratingly quiet week so far, on the other hand a profitable one.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

Lincoln should be odds-on on my ratings to beat Accrington this evening. Not two teams I can pretend to know much about though. I'll continue my 1% approach and taking caution to extraordinary lengths this meditatory month split that 40% win at Evens and 60% draw no bet at 4/9.

Cheltenham – all manner of old favourites running today. It's meetings like this where I need to be disciplined and not relapse into the style of betting that got me here in the first place, but which is now unprofitable (for me). I'll do a get rich quick treble – otherwise no bet.

Apologies to those who look in on just these occasions (Saturday Gambler for one), but I'd only let you down.

“Snippet of the day”
“When you come from Des Moines you either accept the fact without question and settle down with a local girl named Bobbi and get a job at the Firestone factory and live there for ever and ever, or you spend your adolesence moaning at length about what a dump it is and how you can't wait to get out, and then you settle down with a local girl named Bobbi and get a job at the Firestone factory and live there for ever and ever.”

Thursday 11th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1375/Current bank £3770 – scd bet unaccounted)

Off to London again, just for the day this time. No bets today.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

No bet today.

“Snippet of the day”
“Champagne for my real friends. Real pain for my sham friends.”

(I went to a play last night at Wrekin College – by Lope De Vega 1603. Surprisingly good fun and reminded me of my lucky escape from being an English/Drama teacher. Wrekin's drama teacher getting carried away Summer Heights High style with this updated line methinks.)

Wednesday 10th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1375/Current bank £3715)

Due a kicking.

Leicester 12:50 – dutch front two as close to 1.2 – Henderson usually has a few winners in December that have been off for ages – weakness in market always a worry though.

Strictly Come Dancing. Tom wins this if he gets to the final as there's plenty of evidence that Rachel and Lisa just aren't as popular with the public, despite the judges' over the top gushing. I'll guess he'll be 1.2ish if he makes the final. However, he could end up in the dance-off this week and be scuppered Gethin-gate style. So 3^rd or 1^st. We can back him to win now at 1.7+ and to be eliminated this week at 4/1. Dutched around 1.25ish. Looks good. You could probably better this playing the forecast markets but it's too hard to get any reasaonable sum of money on.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

The ratings seem to have recovered from their horrendous run. Our Champions League group bets fell by the wayside last night though. No bet today.

“Snippet of the day”
“Needless to say,
I don't agree.
And let's bring the talk
Back to me, me, me.

Tuesday 9th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1375/Current bank £3590)

Sedgefield has a couple of potential races.
1:20 – but too short the front two to really be viable.
2:20 – front two and could possibly add a late springer.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

The John Durkan chase: People seem to be finding holes in the front three and sniffing around for “value” elsewhere. There's plenty of holes in the form of the outsiders though and it doesn't look very competitive to me. One of the big three at least should run their race. It's not a barking bet, given the depth in the field, but I'm prepared to risk 1% dutching the front three at best prices.

Football.
Three matches come out as bets on ratings. Wolves and Preston look fairly straightforward, but at unexciting prices. Sheffield United are more interesting away to Nottingham Forest. Around half stake on win and half on 'draw no bet' looks the way to go here.

“Snippet of the day”
“Believe we're gliding down life's highway
when in fact we're slip slidin' away”

Monday 8th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1375/Current bank £3550)
Rusedski had match point yesterday – always disliked him! I was able to hedge a little in-running and paid £100 dividend. New stake £360.

Musselburgh 1:50 potential today, front four, but a pretty horrible looking race.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£835- 2 bets inplay – accounted)

Good old Ronnie. No bet today.

“Snippet of the day”
“ Do memories plague their ears like flies.”

Sunday 7th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3512 – tennis bet accounted as loser)

Racing's been great this week. I have very little faith in Rusedski beating Pioline however – have already counted it as a loser. If he could pull it off we'll have a perfect 10 for the week, and a nice dividend. I'm off walking, so no bets today.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£814- 4 bets inplay – accounted)

Reality TV gave us a right kicking last night, which at least I was prepared for. Further proof, were any needed that these shows are best treated as long-term trading events.Something I gave up a couple of years back when I realised I was wasting my life perusing celebrity-obsessed forums; monitoring obscure on-line polls, and worst of all watching the damned programmes.

Ronnie made the final, Selby looks to be in the best form though – fingers crossed for this evening.

Stenson at least has a stroll in the park today for anyone who played that one.

Football today. (Yesterday's two matches gave my ratings a boost). My ratings suggest Everton should be 5/4. However, given their lack of strikers and hopeless home record, I'd have pushed them out to 6/4 as well.

Portsmouth look more likely at 7/4 and better. I would have put this up as a bet in more normal times, and have dabbled (1% of fund as opposed to the usual 4%) a quarter of stake on the win and three quarters on +0.25, which, taken overall, doubles your money for a win and gets your entire stake back for a draw. The reduced stake may be the new way forward with this fund. (A reversion to an old approach in reality). I think I'm going to sit tight, and continue experimenting and meditating through to the Xmas and decide what to do come the new year.

“Snippet of the day”
“ A fairytale finish down at Dean Court”
I agree with John. Darren Anderton always seemed like a decent bloke, and always looked completely at home in an England shirt.

Saturday 6th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3647 – tennis bet unaccounted)

Tip-toeing along this week. Could do without blowing it.

12:25 Chepstow playable, dutching front two at close to 1.2
1:00 Chepstow possible if you're happy to oppose Pancake (probably)
2:00 Sandown – another one of those possibly trappy novice chases but front two playable if happy they are a cut above (probably)

Pioline/Sampras play-off to see who plays Rusedski in final. Pioline has never beaten Sampras. I'll let it ride.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£814- 6 bets inplay – accounted)

Let's imagine I was betting in this fund.

The football ratings throw up two teams (one of which will make at least one person laugh!).

Birmingham to beat Watford on ratings should be as short as 1.5 The problem is Birmingham just keep conceding goals, and it's easy to see why they're priced longer – particuarly if you suspect Watford are probably underrated. Not for me.

Bournemouth (!) should be odds-on to beat Chester on my ratings. I'm guessing this must just be because my ratings can't catch up with their freefall – maybe today's the day they steady the ship. Frankly, if they can't....Good luck, but I'll skip.

Racing. I foresee the following headline: Thomas rides four timer at Chepstow as McCoy falls at Sandown! Though, to be honest the four-timer actually looks more likely. Master Minded and Tidal Bay look the right prices to me. It's notable that Corals are firmly in Tidal Bay's camp though. The horse that seems to have been slightly overlooked is Twist Magic who likes this course – in stark contrast to undulating tracks – I'd put him in at 9/1.

On-going bets – Ronnie O'Sullivan gets to the business end of the Permier League. Let's hope he plays better than he has thus far; Stenson now only 3 shots clear; Diana vulnerable in X Factor and not looking a favourite; and we need a good night from Austin Healey – Tom beginning to worry me.

“Snippet of the day”
Dog-school:
“Ok, hands up anyone who hasn't eaten their homework”

Friday 5th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3562 – tennis bet unaccounted)

Small win yesterday. A decent card at Sandown today. The 2:00 looks playable – we can get the front three in the book if we get the right prices. The 1:00 Exeter would also look like a qualifier but it's a handicap and I've excluded them from consideration for the most part.

Pioline is looking threatening in the old crocks tennis. We may need to take a little insurance tomorrow when he has his showdown with Sampras.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£814- 6 bets inplay – accounted)

No bet today. Stenson is 1.75 to win in Sun City and that looks very fair to me. You know me and golf though.

“Snippet of the day”
Kastoori, Shree Krishna; Jaffna House; Mirch Marsala; Lahore Karahi. I miss you guys.

Thursday 4th December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3522 – tennis bet unaccounted)

I played the Catterick hurdle in the end – winner apart, were they ever poor horses!

Abandonment of Market Rasen limits chances today. Perhaps the Novice Chase at Wincanton to squeeze a limited win out of front two.

Tennis bet lobbing along – Rusedski should reach final now and hard to imagine Sampras won't join him.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£814- 6 bets inplay – accounted)

No bet today.

“Snippet of the day”
“An only life can take so long to climb
Clear of its wrong beginnings.”

Wednesday 3rd December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3432 – tennis bet unaccounted)

A good start to the week. I played the two Hereford races – and suffered a scary second circuit in the Novice Chase once the favourite had been pulled up. Even better, the gut instinct that made me avoid the Greyhound final proved perspicacious.

Catterick has two possibles, We're not likely to get a playable price on the front three in the 1:50. We could play the front four in the 2:20, but they are far from solid, as befits the course. Sit and ponder.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£814- 6 bets inplay – accounted)

No bet today.

“Snippet of the day”
“standing
alone with nothing to say for myself except my name.”

Tuesday 2nd December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3247)

The Tennis Masters is interesting. The problem is gauging just how much of a sporting event it actually is. Once all the prat-falls are done with though, it's hard to see how Sampras (and possibly Rusedski) can't be way ahead of a bunch of people my age or older! You can dutch them both at 1.3ish.

The greyhound final tonight looked a play, but there does look a possibility of an inside dog getting a free run and I'll skip.

Hereford 1:10 and 3:10 are possibles, but I'll wait and watch for now. The faves in the 1:10 aren't exactly bombproof, and there's some lurkers in the 3:10.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£814- 6 bets inplay – accounted)

No bet today.

“Snippet of the day”
“I wouldn't worry about it none. Them old dreams are only in your head.”

Monday 1st December

“Barking Bets” (Banked £1275/Current bank £3247)

Doesn't look to be anything today. A day off.

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£814- 6 bets inplay – accounted)

No bet today. Shutting up shop for a while, unless a damned fine bet wanders by.

The overall returns on this fund are still 104%. But the fund is down from a high of £1235 and I need to take stock. I'll be concentrating on the barking bets for the time being. I'll still put up thoughts on here each day though.

“Snippet of the day”
“What's the name of the river running through Bristol?”

(oops)