Racing - June 30th

The last day of my own particular Junus Horribilis. Let's hope for a drier and more profitable July!

Still no tissues - sorry, but thoughts as follows on what looks a very difficult day.

Newc 2:10
Not sure exactly why Rising Shadow is such a strong favourite. It's between the three but I'll take him on with the other two - Sierra Vista (to make all) or Hoh Mike (if he gets through).

Newc 2:45
Fullandby solid but short - I'll oppose with Zomerlust and Turnkey (both of whom look well suited by conditions)

Newc 3:20
Juniper Girl does look well suited to this but again can afford to miss at t he price. Macorville would be a tentative selection in a tricky race.


Newmarket 3:00
Munsef very short but I'll keep him on-side given that I don't like the main challengers either. If there is one to spoil the party it could be Under The Rainbow.

To put this all in context not one race came remotely close to being considered for the £500 challenge, and I will be braving the continiung rain to enjoy Shifnal carnival instead of watching the racing in my hotel room without access to internet. The floats should be perfectly named this year at least.

Racing - 29 June

Still only sporadic access to internet I'm afraid and the £500 challenge having to take a back seat.

Newcastle 7:15
I'll take two against the field and hardly original as they are currently the two faves. Carribean Coral at 11/2 or better and Prince Namid at 8/1 or better.


Newmarket 8:10
Ratings may not suggest so but I put Medley in as fave here - his placed form behind Hoh Mike is creditable as is his beating of Cartimandua. 9/2 looks very good against my 3/1. If there were 8 runners the £500 challenge would have played as well.

Racing Salisbury - June 27

Flooded again Monday.

Salisbury 4:10
Ordnance Row 9/4
Apex 3/1
Apply Dapply 11/2
Gaelic Princess 10/1

Ordnance Row could get a soft lead I suppose. I'm still inclined at the prices to get on board Apex. 9/2 is long gone, grab the last of the 4s.

Ascot Saturday June 23

Not able to put tissues up etc, but an indication of what I'll be betting:

3:05
Mighty - such a genuine horse - as long as 8 stand their ground 16/1 is great, especially 1/3 odds Ladbrokes. The place element is so tempting that in normal times this would be my £500 challenge bet.

3:45
Borderlescott - those who follow this blog will understand this one.

4:25
How about an each way (loaded on the place element) Ashdown Express.

5:00
Futun - I try to spot Cumani plot horses. Not able to check the market but I've had him down as one for a while.

Update

Altogether now:

"Oh, didn't we have a loverly time the time we moved to Shropshire."

You may have wondered where I have been this Ascot. Tuesday night we were flooded out of our rented house in sunny Shifnal. The first time the place had flooded in living memory and a mere 7 weeks after we've moved in!

The house is uninhabitable and I type this from a hotel in Telford - dreaded memories of a businessman's life.

I should be back on-line now - but bear with me.

June 19th Royal Ascot and £500 Challenge

Ascot 3:05
Miss Andretti 4/1
Takeover Target 11/2
Benbaun 16/1
Bentleys Biscuit 16/1
Dandy Man 16/1
Desert Lord 16/1
Magnus 16/1
Moss Vale 16/1
Pivotal Point 16/1
Tax Free 16/1
Beauty is Truth 16/1
Enticing 16/1

Unconvincing tissue, but let's face it our lot are all much of a muchness. Whichever one gets conditions and pace to suit can outperform. The Aussies have this at their mercy. Takeover Target already has the T-shirt but by all accounts can't live with Miss Andretti. We'll see. This looks too short for Bentley's Biscuit with no obvious blitzkrieg pace to bring the pacesetters back. For a tickle how about Pivotal Point to repeat last year's placing at around 12/1 or better.


Ascot 3:45
Cockney Rebel 5/4
Dutch Art 7/2
Excellent Art 7/1
Astronomer Royal 12/1
Creachadoir 16/1

Cockney Rebel owes me nothing. All the talk of Dutch Art being unlucky in the Guineas may just provide a decent price on the actual winner, and that'll do for me.


Ascot 4:20
George Washington 6/4
Cesare 4/1
Red Evie 9/2
Ramonti 7/1
Jeremy 20/1

I've been following Cesare a while now and have had this in mind as the big step-up. George Washington is one I'm prepared to take on. I'd just play Cesare each way at great odds in a dead eight field, but Red Evie muddies the waters, not least Jamie Spencer's loyalty. I'll play both in my racing fund but do Cesare each way in the challenge.


£500 Challenge
Cesare £7.50 ew at 5/1

Running Total
£615.74

Sunday 17th June

Salisbury 3:30
Prime Defender 7/4
Sakhees Secret 9/4
Ashdown Express 9/1
Presto Shinko 9/1

After yesterday, Prime Defender's defeat of Ho Mike is looking pretty good. The ground suits at the moment as well, but surely some rain will come today - good to firm looks remarkable. At the prices I'm inclined to back the other improving 3 year old - Sakhees Secret at 11/4 or better.


Folkestone 3:20
Cape 5/4
Keyaki 6/1
Maltese Falcon 11/1
Idle Power 11/1

Doubts about most of these. And the two solid ones niggle. Cape let us down the other week, and with Urbina up is short enough for a hold-up horse drawn 1. Keyaki will do well to make all in a higher grade from a wide draw. I'll play my other two for an unlikely upset. Maltese Falcon and Idle Power at weak 20+ prices on Betfair.

Racing Sat 16th June and £500 challenge

Sandown 2:25
Partners in Jazz 7/2
Jamieson Gold 12/1
MacNairobi 12/1
Wavertree Warrior 8/1

I can't get excited about this, but on prices Wavertree Warrior has to be worth chancing to repeat last year's success. I can see Partners in Jazz drifting and is probably solid enough to suggest a saver+.


Sandown 3:35
Contest 6/4
Hoh Mike 9/4
City of Tribes 9/1
Sirens Gift 9/1

A chance City of Tribes could make all off a soft pace but he seems to have been ridden with restraint of late. The angle into the race is Hoh Mike's tendency to dwell at the stalls. Expecting him to be left behind over the 5f makes Contest a real good bet.



£500 Challenge

Contest £15 win at 13/8

Running Total (golf outstanding)
£630.74

Racing 14th June and £500 challenge

Newbury 3:50
Treat 4/6

Whatever way I read this race I'm left with Treat. 4/5 looks very fair. Granted these are 3 year old fillies and the hard rains a-falling. Still I'll play. Who knows she may even drift as everyone looks for an each way poke. Let's throw her in the £500 challenge as well.


GOLF
I'm taken with the winning score market. The golfers are doing their normal US Open "it's a monster" quotes. But I think the powers that be will be looking for atonement for last year's criticisms and suggest they would like to see Level par or a shade under. As pin positions and rain will decide it I think I'll avoid all the hype and play the prices.


£500 Challenge

Treat £15 win at 4/5

Winning score 280 or lower £5 at 4/1
Winning score 281-284 £10 at 9/4

Running Total
£660.74

US Open - Golf

For interest, the portfolio is as follows:

Jeev Singh (!) each way top rest of the world (w/out South Africans) 100/1
Stenson top European 10/1
Zach Johnson top US w/out Woods 14/1
Immelman top rest of world 20/1

Racing - Tues 12th June

Redcar 4:30
Soccerjackpot 2/1
Nanton 6/1
Will He Wish 7/1
Shy Glance 9/1

Not one to get heavily involved in, but a no brainer on tissue alone. I'll try and get the fave beaten by the other three.


Chester 7:45
H Harrison 4/1
Giganticus 11/2
Presumptive 9/1
Phluke 9/1
Roman Maze 9/1
Gallantry 9/1
Malcheek 20/1
Hiccups 20/1

One of those sketch tissues that does itself and needs no tweaking as the race is plainly a typical Chester 7f hit and hope not worthy of close attention. Besides, the tissue already closely matches the market. Gallantry is the only horse that stands out as a rick (mine no doubt). I've taken the little the Tote have allowed me each way at 20s and will probably top that up but with little hope. I expect I'll put him and the two favourites in the jackpot which is worth chasing but will probably be rolled over again.

Racing 11th June

That was a tough weekend. I was due a bad one. However, the racing fund remains in profit for the season so I need to take it on the chin and keep it in context so as to remain on an even keel ahead of Ascot this week.

Pontefract 8:15
Expensive 6/4
Mont Etoile 6/4
Home Sweet Home 8/1

Intriguing match up between an exposed listed class performer carrying a penalty and an apparently far better filly running first time out over a trip much shorter than looks ideal. Potential for market over-reactions here and I'll keep a watching brief.

Racing Saturday 10th June and £500 Challenge

Haydock 2:35
No tissue - River Alhaarth actually the only horse I short-listed, plus half-eyed looks at Kashtari and Winged D'argent. I'll back River Alhaarth at 2s and probably "save" on those two at 25/1 plus.


Haydock 3:10
Again no tissue - but can't really see beyond Paradise Isle here and 15/8 is perfectly fair.


Haydock 4:10
Genari 7/2
Prince Evelith 7/2
Lazy Darren 7/2
Harare 9/1

Tight little handicap. Genari's return to form may be overstated, Prince Evelith is first time out Lazy Darren a three year old, and Harare possibly ungenuine. And those are the ones on the shortlist! I'll play the prices early with Lazy Darren backable at 9/2.


Goodwood 2:20
Cape 4/1
Utmost Respect 13/2
Bentong 10/1
Greenslades 10/1
Viking Spirit 10/1

The two unexposed, first time out, horses head the market and make it no-bet sort of race.


Goodwood 2:50
Munsef Evens
Summers Eve 4/1
Akarem 5/1
High Heel Sneakers 6/1

Corals very short on Munsef but I can't help but want to oppose him at odds-on - not least in first time blinkers. He's probably a straight lay but my eye keeps getting drawn to the lowest rated, Summers Eve so she'll carry the money.


Goodwood 3:25
Army of Angels 9/4
Supersonic Dave 3/1
Nayyir 6/1
Dunelight 6/1
Vanderlin 6/1

Worried about ground for Army. That was a good performance from Supersonic Dave behind Lucarno but you have to worry about the trainerform, and there are three others who could spoil the party. Usually a race I'd like to get stuck into, I'm left watching so far.


Musslburgh 3:15
Alfie Flits Evens
Balkan Knight 7/4
Golden Quest 9/1

Strange race - both the front two are going to be very vulnerable if there is no pace as looks likely. Hard to make a case for any of the others to benefit though. No bet.


Musselburgh 3:45
The Tatling 8/1
Bond City 12/1
Celtic Mill 12/1
River Falcon 12/1
Magic Glade 12/1
handsome Cross 12/1
Bluebok 12/1
Aegean dancer 12/1

You can see from my tissue how open this is. I'll probably play some of the 12/1 shots at 20/1+ and hope. Plus a play on a Bradley 1,2.


Windsor 4:05
Gulf Express 5/4
Cool Box 9/2
Humungous 11/1
Wavertree Warrior 11/1

Looks a match. I couldn't help but notice Cool Box was fave last time they met. I don't think he should be frightened to re-oppose and given the prices I feel compelled to back Cool Box. If I could get a decent bet on each way at 6s I would.


£500 Challenge
It's a strange day. Poorish racing and I have a few I can back but not ones I'd want to thump out the ground. The challenge has had a very quiet week so my idea is to "press up" on the five horses I've backed this morning in doubles and accumulator for the equivalent of one bet. There's every chance of a blank day though.

Hay 2:35 River Alhaarth
Gdwd 2:50 Summers Eve
Hay 3:10 Paradise Isle
Wind 4:05 Cool Box
Hay 4:10 Lazy Darren
10 x £1.40 win doubles
1x£1 accumulator


Running total
£675.74

Thurs June 7th - Racing

Haydock 4:25
Soldiers Tale Evens
Early March 7/1
New Seeker 7/1
Jedburgh 11/1
Quito 20/1
Suggestive 20/1

Looks like Soldiers Tale only problem will be the going. Early March could have been credible but is weak to dead this morning, so I guess needs the run. New Seeker needs to grab the rail and get a soft lead, both of which look highly unlikely and the rest need to find form from somewhere. I think I'll take an early saver on Early March and then hope for a ground-based drift on Soldiers Tale late on.


Sandown 7:55
Hassaad 2/1
Full Victory 6/1
Killena Boy 9/1
The Snatcher 20/1
General Knowledge 20/1

Looks pretty easy for Hassaad to atone for Zetland screw-up on his way to the Hunt Cup. He's no price though in a 15 runner handicap, no matter how uncompetitive I have it. I'm a bigger fan of Richard Hills than most but even I can see him getting into trouble again here. If it does all go wrong the two recent course winners could be the ones to take advantage. A watching brief for me.


£500 Challenge
Federer and Nadal are through to the semis and long 0dds-on each to reach the final. If you wanted to protect your winnings you could take out a little insurance by backing their opponents in the semis. £2 Davydenko at 6/1 and £1.50 Djokovic at 9/1 would change your 6/5 bet into (broadly) a freeish bet at Evens. I've done this personally - but for challenge purposes will count the bet as it is.

6th June - Racing and Football

Nottingham 4:10
Hinterland 9/4
Shumookh 9/4
Charlie Cool 6/1

Looks a match between the front two - the Godolphin horse has been in the doldrums, and Shumookh could get a soft lead. So considerably keener on the latter than the former. Will watch the market for now however.


Kempton 7:40
Intrepid jack 3/1
Rowe Park 6/1
Barons Pit 6/1
Border Music 7/1
Empress Jain 7/1
Playful 20/1
Elhamri 20/1

Those drawn on the rail could cut each other's throats here and allow something to come wide and late. Rowe Park did us proud last time so I will stick with him for at least a point or two even though well up in class and poorly drawn here.




Euro 2008
A couple of matches for my nascent international ratings. I backed Russia to win our group some time ago so the Croatia bet can be seen as a part hedge.

Croatia beat Russia at Evens or better
Kazakhstan beat Azerbaijan at 13/10 or better




None of these close to qualifying for £500 challenge.

Racing 5th June, and other stuff, and £500 challenge

Ripon 3:30
My Gacho 4/1
Charles Darwin 5/1
Steel Blue 6/1
Trojan Flight 9/1
Lake Chini 9/1
Desert Commander 10/1
Yorkshire Blue 16/1

Some disappointing types here. The one that I do like at the prices is Charles Darwin. He likes small fields and looks to be coming to hand based on his latest run. He should be able to race prominently here and hopefully plenty of these will fail to get competitive. With only nine runners the place odds look decent, so an each way bet for me.


Golf: Austrian Open
I seem to have stopped putting hopeless golfers up on here, so you can guess I had another losing run. Still, that came to an end with Sterne on Sunday and my golf partner had Dredge as well, and we were back with a vengeance! So I may as well throw down our four against the field - all each way.

Kaymer 25/1 (the up and coming kid has put together 6 good tournaments in a row now and this is suitably week for him to make a further breakthrough)

Vibe-hastrup 66/1 (placed his last twice and must be over-priced, based on few people having heard of him and fewer still able to spell his name!)

My colleague adds Soren Hansen 50/1 (we like to have a Scandinavian on our team and this one's as close to a course specialist as there is)

and Matthew Zions 125/1 (on the basis it would be good to have a good local lad, until I pointed out AUT meant Australian, not Austrian!) I think he takes the intuitive approach to extremes sometimes (though he's still out-pointing me and my pseudo scientific ratings-based approach).



Tennis:
I'm going to back Chakvetadze today to beat Sharapova at 15/8 or better. The latter is hopelessly one dimensional and she gets really found out on clay. That said, she's also rock solid when it comes to fighting (or cheating) her way to a win, a great asset when so many of the women are so flakey. So, I'll be looking to trade out at some point.


£500 Challenge
I topped up on Borderlescott last night within my own three star fund, something the £500 challenge fund did well to avoid. Today I think the challenge can go for Charles Darwin. I think my own three star fund may concentrate primarily on the place odds, but as I know some of you following this are not betfair players I'll stick to each way for on here.

Charles Darwin £7.50 ew at 15/2 (7/1 OK)

Running Total
£657.74
(Federer/Nadal final still running)

Racing - Monday 4th June

Windsor 8:00
Borderlescott 13/8
Baltic King 9/2
Bygone Days 7/1
Assertive 7/1
Balthazars Gift 10/1
Fayr Jag 16/1

It's not exactly original but Borderlescott looks rock solid here. All being well he could get a soft lead, judged perfectly by Seb Sanders and have too much late on for horses with doubts about them. Bygone Days has to carry a penalty on ground quick enough for him; Assertive probably better at 7f or a stiffer 6f; Baltic King likes the course and has won this race but needs a fast pace and that looks unlikely; and Balthazar's Gift would need to show some form though I can see him spoiling the party. I'm hoping for 7/4. (That's actually available now with Betfred but he doesn't let me play!)

Very close to a £500 challenge bet, but as the price isn't available we'll have to skip.

Racing - Saturday 2nd June

The Derby - Epsom 4:20
Authorised 6/4
Archipenko 7/1
Aqaaleem 11/1
Lucarno 11/1
Eagle Mountain 11/1
Admiralofthefleet 33/1
Mahler 33/1
Regime 33/1
Salford Mill 33/1
Soldier of Fortune 33/1
Strategic Prince 33/1
Yellowstone 33/1

Authorised is solid but, let's face it, he's a rotten price. The bookies may be all talk about losing millions if Frankie wins but the truth is they're delighted to be able to lay this at odds on. There must be some juice against him this morning.

My ante post book includes Aqaleem at 100/1, Archipenko at 30+, Lucarno at 33s, Eagle Mountain at 20s and Yellowstone at 160s, so I don't feel the need to go diving in again. As I've talked up both Aqaleem and Archipenko on here and recommended them before their trials I hope some of you are similarly positioned. Not that it will matter much once Frankie wins and we have to endure the BBC's sentimental guff!

If you're coming fresh to the race this morning I'd go for Archipenko at 9s or better. Lucarno stands out on my tissue though so add him as a saver each way.


Epsom 3:00
Blue Ksar Evens
Blythe Knight 9/2
Welsh Emperor 9/2
King Jock 9/1

Another Frankie odds-on shot probably worth opposing. Blythe Knight may just be an improved horse this year but prior to now has always needed a strong pace to show his best.

Welsh Emperor could have his ideal conditions if granted a soft lead. With one rather massive caveat - whether he will get the mile. "Never bet on a horse to do something it's never done before" is a very sensible racing adage. You sometimes get a price that compensates for the doubts though and I think that's the case here. If he doesn't get a soft lead, or gets his fractions wrong, or just doesn't stay, we're sunk, but at the 9s available this morning I'm happy to take a chance. If he does get to the furlong pole in the lead I'm all for laying off the stake at least in-running.



The rest of the card is almost impossible, so I won't bother with tissues. And no £500 Challenge bet today I'm afraid.

Racing June 1st - and £500 Challenge

Epsom 1:40
Echelon 3/1
Nannina 3/1
Bahia Breeze 4/1
Puggy 9/1
Harvest Dream 11/1
Apply Dapply 12/1
Edaara 20/1

Not exactly in love with my tissue here. The going will decide Nannina's price and some of the others look distinctly dodgy. Still it has drawn me into a bet on a 75 rated filly - probably because I rather like the name (there was a golfer by the name of Brandell Chamblee who cost me a fortune over the years but I did enjoy saying his name out loud over and over whilst searching for his name amongst those who had missed the cut again). Apply Dapply ew at 50/1


Epsom 2:10
Ordnance Row 5/1
Rio Riva 7/1
Unshakable 7/1
Plum Pudding 11/1
Prince of Thebes 16/1
Wavertree Warrior 16/1
Montepellier 16/1
Futures Dream 16/1
Rain Stops Play 16/1

I've backed Rio Riva the last twice so I guess today's going to be the day. Looks tricky to me and just the sort of race I'm avoiding with some success so far this season.


Epsom 2:45
Stotsfold 9/2
Forroger 9/2
Tabadul 6/1
Lake Poet 7/1
John Terry 11/1

Not much strength in depth here. Stotsfold will need to settle better than at Chester and Forroger is well up in class. There's doubts about both Tabadul and Lake Poet but they both ran really well over course last time. Here Lake Poet could steal a race with no obvious pace and Tabadul has a better draw this time. I think I'll take them both against the faves and throw in a hopeful forecast as well.


Epsom 3:25
Sixties Icon 6/4
Septimus 4/1
Sir Percy 4/1
Scorpion 10/1
Maraahel 10/1

I think Sixties Icon is solid here and am happy to back him at 13/8. At 7/4 he would have made it into the £500 Challenge. I'm not at all keen on Sir Percy or Scorpion and have Septimus as the most likely spoiler.


Epsom 4:05
Passage of Time 9/4
Four Sins 5/1
Dalvina 9/1
Light Shift 9/1
All My Loving 11/1
Measured Tempo 12/1
Kayah 20/1
Dance of Light 25/1

Passage of Time does have one drawback - Dickie Hughes. That apart, Four Sins has been building up in my hopes for a while now. I'm on at 25s (which is better than my Dalvina ante post punt at umm 7s!), and have gone in again at 8s, as well as in each way doubles with Archipenko. So it's probably a one-eyed tissue, but as long as the ground is no worse than good to soft, I'm prety hopeful. She's the obvious one for the £500 Challenge, and each way would suit that fund's objectives nicely.


£500 Challenge
Four Sins £7.50 ew at 8/1

Running Total
£672.74