Weds 30th April

“Daily Challenge Bet”

Lucky I hedged last night on 0-0. Small loss. Bigger on here.

Nothng doing today. I keep looking at Ken's price for London Mayor. I can't believe London are really going to vote Boris in as mayor. Surely common sense will prevail when they are stood in the polling booth. Or has the cult of celebrity finally won the day?

“Barking Bets”

A good day yesterday with them all winning bar one void match.

1. Barcelona tennis Blake beat Gremalmayr £100 at 1.44

2. Barcelona tennis Warwrinka beat Schukin £100 at 1.19

3. Barcelona tennis Canas beat Gabashvilli £100 at 1.19

4. Munich tennis Mathieu beat Naso £100 at 1.09

5. Munich tennis Gonzalez beat Vligeau £100 at 1.33

6. Prague tennis Karepi beat Pliskova £100 at 1.18

7. Worcester 2:00 Bormo £100 at 1.5ish

8. Worcester 4:15 Dutch Adroit Aprroach and Mambo Des Mottes at 1.2ish

Tuesday 29th April

“Daily Challenge Bet”

Forget the Champions League. Stockport are 11/5 to beat Chester. Chester as you know are my bottom rated team in the league and have lost 9 of their last 10 home games. Stockport have won 9 of their last 11 away games. They should be odds on according to my ratings. Chester need the points. Stockport don't. That can't justify the prices. I'll probably hedge on 0-0 and 1-1 but for here -

Stockport £20 win at 11/5 (or 2/1)

“Barking Bets”

A void game yesterday, one bet not matched, and one not announced. A fistful of winners, one loser and the fund £2 down! Looks like it will be difficult to monitor this on here. I'll leave you to decide whether you trust my own figures.

1. Munich tennis Kohlschreber beat Bachinger £100 at 1.07

2. Munich tennis Gonzalez beat Sela £100 at 1.2

3. Barcelona tennis Almagro beat Troicki £100 at 1.14

4. Barcelona tennis Martin beat Marai £100 at 1.25

5. Prague tennis Srebrotnik beat Meusberger £100 at 1.13

6. Southwell 2:30 Yakimov £100 at 1.45

Monday 28th April

“Daily Challenge Bet”

No bet today. I did consider Arsenal, and have done them below in the less serious fund, but their away record against the lower sides hasn't been entirely convincing and 1.3 looks only fair on that basis. Also my stats suggested overs in the West Brom game was fairly priced at 4/5, but given the importance of the game I couldn't bring myself to play.

“Barking Bets”

I'll be monitoring this against my own actual bets. I may not be matched on some bets – for example the racing selections today I have put up the price I'm prepared to lay and will not change that, and as of now have no idea if I will be matched.

1. Barcelona tennis Minar bt Lopez £100 at 1.40

2. Barcelona tennis Verdasco bt Lapenttiat £100 at 1.36

3. Arsenal bt Derby £100 at 1.3

4. Lingfield 2:20 – lay Looks The Business £100 at 1.07 (not yet matched)
   

5. Southwell 6:25 – lay Frontline in Focus £100 at 1.10 (not yet matched)
   

Harry Findlay's Barking Bets

Here's my new “research project”.

Harry's always telling us that we shouldn't be afraid to take the short ones. And indeed the changing betting environment has been attracting me to odds on chances, and dutched books. As regulars know they are the mainstay of the successful daily challenge.

Harry means the really short ones though. Let's see. We'll keep staking safe as always, but for a change I am perfectly prepared to bust this bank. We will try to bank some profits and put in place progressive staking, but that also means we will almost certainly hit the buffers somewhere down the line. I'll do it to my real stakes, (as opposed to the daily challenge which I do for considerably more).

As soon as we bust the bank I'll pack the blog up.

Rules:

Starting bank £1000 (multiply by at least 100 to get the Findlay vibe going!)

Stake £100 per bet for first week.

At end of each week Bank half of any profits and re-base stake to 10% of remaining bank.

If bank falls below £1000 bet sticks at £100

All bets must be a maximum price of 1.66

Betting exchanges to be used for all bets (Harry can't get on anywhere else remember).

I'm not claiming any insight into Harry's own bets. I haven't his skill, cojones, experts or contacts.

Today I can't find much and against my better judgement will start with horses.

Today's “barking bet”.

Navan 4:30

Dutch Yeats and Red Moloney £100 at 1.2

Sunday 27th April

It's exactly a year since I started the challenge on here. I appear to have failed to double the fund, as we are stuck on £850. We came within spitting distance of £1000 not long ago so have had a wee slump since then.

On the whole I don't think that's so bad, coinciding as it has with my worst year's gambling in ten years. (It's also a year since I moved to Shropshire, not sure how much that has contributed). All in all it's more evidence that well considered bets staked consistently will be profitable. And also probably why I found it easier as a self-disciplined semi-pro topping up his earnings, than I have as a full-time gambler looking to drastically increase turnover.

The 'challenge' helped me enormously in my attempt to navigate my way out of the crisis, and has become a key part of my process going forward. I'm not sure I would have moved in this direction without the blog, nor without reading “Fooled By Randomness”. So that's made it worthwhile.

I am somewhat bored with the blog though, so I think I'll set up a new challenge for the coming year. I have an idea that could be fun, or could fail quickly. Will set up soon. I'm not sure if I'll persevere with the challenge – I may just record my equivalent fund bets up here without explanation, for anyone following – I know some people are keen on the football bets.

So, today's, possibly last, Challenge bet. By my ratings Everton should be shorter today. As we know the Cahill effect challenges those ratings, but I can't help feel the betting is going too far in Villa's favour today – overreacting to their last few games. I have Villa to come 5^th so an element of hedge won't harm. I think Everton will be looking to keep it as tight as possible, and Villa may not be able to play the counter attacking style that suits them. If Everton do win, I'd have thought they'd only score one. We can dutch that with the Villa score most likely to upset the unders bet.

£500 Challenge

£20 Under 2.5 goals at 1.75+

£3 Everton win 1-0 at 15/2

£2 Villa win 2-1 at 11.5/1

Saturday 26th April

Sandown, and an old fashioned feel to the blog today!

Sandown 2:40

Andreas 4/1

Monets Garden 5/1

Howle Hill 11/2

Fiepes Shuffle 11/1

Pablo Du Charmil 20/1

This looks a right old tear up and most of these have reasons to avoid. Including Howle Hill who can jump stickily, plus King is 0-21 with chasers here. I still think he's a good price though based on very solid form earlier in a light season. Monet's Garden over shorter down south is opposable, and Andreas just doesn't win very often. Fiepes Shuffle and Pablo will have to cope with there being so many front runners but do have chances at bigger prices.

Sandown 3:20

Royal County Star 11/2

Iris De Balme 11/2

My Immortal 9/1

Lothian Falcon 9/1

Bewleys Berry 10/1

Ungaro 14/1

Knowhere 20/1

Hoo La Baloo 20/1

RCS is weak this morning, as the money comes for Iris. On my prices My Immortal looks the one – though this is based on his run over the course, since when he has disappointed. Lothian Falcon is another to consider at the prices and Knowhere would be my pick of the topweights.

Sandown 3:55

Medicine Path 5/4

Major Cadeaux 4/1

Rob Roy 4/1

I missed the silly prices on Medicine Path, but 7/4 is perfectly fine in a race where all the rest have clear doubts.

£500 Challenge

£12.50 win Medicine Path 7/4

£5 win Howle Hill 8/1

£5 win My Immortal 25/1

3 x 50p win doubles

Friday 25th April

The racing hasn't thrown up anything again today.

So, football, and one of those weekends where the bookies mark up some very strange prices – based on teams having to win playing teams who don't.

The most glaring one I've settled on is Oldham v Cheltenham. Oldham should be clear odds-on on my ratings.

We can go for glory and throw in a few others as well. All these do have doubts about them – Liverpool will be a reserve team, Preston are missing half their defence, and Shrewsbury and Darlington are struggling almost as much as the teams they play. The prices on all are silly though really.

£500 Challenge

Oldham £22.50 at 11/8 (7/5 available if you can get it)

£2.50 fivefold at (say) 80/1

Liverpool, Preston, Oldham, Darlington and Shrewsbury

Thursday 24th April

I've looked and looked but can't find a challenge bet today.

Jy Vole and Cooldine both played on my mind for a while but I can skip. I'll probably doi an ew double on them myself as part of racing fund.

There's some interesting end of season football prices raising their heads for the weekend though. I'd rather wait for those.

Wednesday 23rd April

I'll skip Man Utd/Barcelona.

And mainly concentrate on the jackpot at Nottingham, although that looks like it will be won easily by the big hitters.

Which leaves us with Mossbank for today's bet. Neptune Collonges probably wins this assuming he's over the Gold Cup. Mossbank remains the most, if not only, credible danger though. We lost at Cheltenham under a very uninspiring ride. Maybe he just lacks gears in grade 1 company, but 3/1 looks fair, and he looks much better value for a place based on that. I wouldn't put you off a 20/80 and/or throw in a straight forecast underneath the favourite. He may drift if the Kicking King money comes.

£500 challenge

Mossbank £20 place at 1.6

Tuesday 22nd April

I was fairly sure what I was going to do this morning. Then I got the RP and it was plastered all over the back pages. I don't like it when this happens – it usually signals the end of the road.

Still, it's hard to get away from unders in toight's match. On all known form it's going to be tight game. 2/1 on is a fair price and some 8/15 available.

Puchestown is a punter's graveyard (for me anyway).

£500 Challenge

Unders – Liverpool/Chelsea £20 at 8/15

Monday 21st April

Well played Villa yesterday. I wouldn't mind them coming 5^th.

In a rush this morning – need to reinforce my fencing after successful escape attempt of puppy yesterday. The little mister has driven a coach and horses through our simple, quiet lifestyle. We remain cat people at heart!

We've called him Bobby, by the way. After my hero Bobby Box. Remember him? Ray Brooks at his finest. Very reminiscent of my dad in truth.

Let's have a crack at the snooker. Unadventurous I know. Actually I haven't seen a really good bet since Cheltenham. Probably missed loads though...

£500 Challenge

£10 Williams beat Davis at 1.4

£10 Selby beat King at 1.2

Saturday 20th April

Enough of the golf! That said, sports betting is now accounting for two thirds of my betting compared to 80% horse racing just a couple of years ago. I'm trialling a couple of approaches on football and tennis that I'm hopeful of and they may become incorporated into the challenge bets in time, although I'll probably keep the football one under wraps as it relies on a lack of liquidity and could only ever be a small but regular earner.

It looks an interesting year ahead. My third year full-time was very difficult. If this one isn't more like the first two years I may well be looking for a new career.

Today's bet is Aston Villa. Derby fever etc is holding their price up artificially as far as my ratings are concerned.

£500 Challenge

Aston Villa £20 win at 4/5+

Saturday 19th April

Howell still playing like a raccoon in handcuffs – he needs a 67 or something tomorrow to gatecrash the top 10. Unlikely.

I was looking at the Snooker champs yesterday, trying to find a way in. I read an interesting article (blog) asserting that the top 4 players were starting to draw away from the field. I was interested in the price for the top 4 but the price has gone sadly. During my research I couldn't help but notice that Murphy looked to have the best actual stats (50s, 100s etc), and he seems to have been ignored a bit in the betting. Could stoutism be at work?! Anyway I'll build a modest portfolio around him, primarily to make the final.

My football ratings throw up two possible bets today, neither of which I like enough to put up as the challenge bet, but are Sheff Utd to beat Hull at 5/4 and Rotherham to beat Degenham at 11/10.

Which leaves the racing, and therefore the Scottish National. My ante post book includes a non runner, and Opera Mundi in anticipation of soft ground. It is beefed up a bit by Noir et Vert at 11/1.

That being so I only need to add a couple this morning to complete the list. The challenge bet may as well be made up of those. Miko De Beauchene is drifting to a very backable price. He's the rock solid, genuine, tough horse in the field, who I'd have as clear favourite and yet in the face of support for others looks like he'll go off at 8/1. The place part of that is particularly attractive and I wouldn't put anyone off a place only bet or a 20/80. I think if I'd come to the race fresh this morning that may have been my play.

Of the rest, the ground looks to have gone for Halcon Generlardais and Opera Mundi; Old Benny may well have left his race at Cheltenham (the stats suggest so); Patsy Hall didn't look a stayer at the festival and most of the rest are too far out of the handicap to threaten. (Noir et Vert now looks the right price). One who could show is Kilbeggan Blade who has decent form and may be being overlooked for running in the x-country race last time (didn't stop Silver Birch winning a National).

£500 Challenge

£7.50 ew Miko De Beauchene as close to 8/1 as possible

£2.50 ew Kilbeggan Blade at 20/1

Friday 18th April

Taylor drips a bit more fat on the bread for us, but Howell is fannying around in China.

Yet another full but decidedly difficult race programme. Twiston-Davies' horses have been keeping their form remarkably well all season (not least the admirable Pigeon Island). He has another tough one in Ballyfitz. His race at Cheltenham doesn't look overly competitive and as long as he does run his race he should place. As long as 8 runners line up it's a bet.

£500 Challenge

Ballyfitz £20 place at 1.5 or better

Thursday 17th April

We've missed the wedding of course but Gosden does have his string in the rudest of health, and I'll play doubles on his five runners today. I was going to suggest a 20/80 on Pipedreamer as the daily bet but I think a watching brief – I'm a bit worried by the lack of pace in the race.

Instead I'll return to Phil Taylor who is at the absolute top of his game.

£500 Challenge

Phil Taylor beat Part £20 at 1.25

Weds 16th April

Ho hum – guess I should start reading the local papers!

A lot of racing today and no proper bet to be found. I was going to suggest laying Joe Lively, but at around 5/4 – he's approaching backable at the available 7/4!

So, I apologise in advance, but I'm heading back to the golf. David Howell at is best is a whole different class to all his rivals in the Chinese Open. And there were clear signs he's finally shaken off his injuries the other week. I'm surprised he's not favourite to be honest, and therefore I'm attracted to all the prices on him.

£500 Challenge

Howell – Chinese Open

£5 win at 25/1 (20/1 ok)

£5 place at 5/1

£10 top 10 at 9/4

Tuesday 15th April

A late play on Unders in the Chelsea game got my week off to a welcome start. We've been running to stand still for the last month or so, could do with a jump forward.

Today the Wolves/West Brom match is the one to play. You'd think I'd know all about these two teams, being my new local sides (plus Shrewsbury). Obviously I've scanned the Shropshire Star and the Express and Star for all the news – they're rather keen on local papers up here – maybe I should have skipped college and taken that job at the Surrey Mirror all those years ago.

Despite the cup run and their slightly higher position in the table I don't see WBA as being much better, if at all, than Wolves in a desperately mediocre division. And my ratings agree. Which makes 6/4 Wolves look a shade big. I'd want to keep the draw on-side, so the asians are the way to go.

£500 Challenge

Wolves +0.25 £20 at 1.75

Saturday 12th April

Masters Watch: Not looking great. Woods needs some weather. Our “subs” are struggling. I discovered a note I'd made about Justin Rose. ('One to back in the majors for leader after the first round'). Shame I hadn't remembered that!

A very difficult day today. It's one of the poorest Saturday racing days of the year, and ground conditions must be open to change as well. The novice chases both have long odds on favourites I wouldn't want to back at the prices, nor oppose. Kempton's races do have each way possibilities and overall I think I'll play Once Upon A Grace and Blythe Knight (Doncaster) in an each way double. The faves look too short in both races.

Football also tricky. Everton look big at 6/4 but I've stopped backing them with Cahill out. Portsmouth are backable, but with a Cup final on their minds and a resurgent Newcastle, it's not hard to see why bookies are laying them. Oldham and Swansea also make it as value on my ratings but I'm happy to overlook.

Which leaves Crystal Palace as the rather unadventurous Saturday pick. They've been in the challenge before, winning and losing, so we know what we're getting. They should be 1.5 at best in my book but I think I'll keep 0-0 onside.

£500 Challenge

Crystal Palace £20 at 1.6

0-0 Draw £2 at 12/1

Friday 11th April

Masters Watch: Woods nicely poised. Rose out front. Watching brief.

I essentially gave up on yesterday's hare-brained scheme. In Tooting days I could have just walked round Tooting and used 10 or more bookies. Shifnal's Corals doesn't offer quite the same anonymity. It wouldn't have made any difference anyway, what little I did get on lost!

In the end I just lumped on Phil Taylor in the darts, which was much easier! I would have posted it yesterday afternoon but am aware most watchers look in lunchtime.

Tricky today – don't want to get sucked into end of season racing on changing ground. I'll hang onto a possible Crystal Palace bet in case I want to use it tomorrow when similar caution will apply to the racing.

So we are left with USA to beat France in Davis Cup. The market's gone really since Tsonga pulled out and Gasquet was injured, hey ho.

£500 Challenge

USA at 1.25 or better

Thursday 10th April

I am aiming to play a couple of decidedly dodgy each way races today as my main bet, but have to wait until the last minute and have no idea if I'll be able to get anything on or not.

Nothing else appeals. I could put up a football bet but think we'll just say no bet today. There is the golf to keep us occupied after all.

Weds 9th April

Here's a story for the collection.

You know that big football double I have going? MK Dons and Swansea. I've been hedging against it for the last few weeks and last night it crept closer to fulfilment. I'd say it's around a 2/1 on chance now.

It's part of a portfolio three of us set up every year at the start of the season. We usually do hundreds of small bets – trebles mainly, with some bigger doubles on the selections we all fancy. It provides a lot of interest over the season. “This year Anne, I'm mostly supporting MK Dons”. This year we only did 97 bets.

I know this because we have them all on a spreadsheet and I just checked. Last night I did some checking as well. I went and actually checked on the bet on the online account where the spreadsheet tells me I placed around half the bets. I'm not sure why I checked; it was an online version of when I used to get the ante post vouchers out of their wallet close to Cheltenham, in anticipation. And with a similar outcome.

The double I've been hedging against, and dreaming of, doesn't exist. It should of course. Except I seem to have placed a double on Southampton/MK Dons twice instead.

My friends have taken this news better than me. This is entirely my own fault. But I feel sick that the one idiotic mistake I make in placing 97 bets is on the winning ticket (potentially).

I am currently Carlisle's biggest fan.

And very possibly about to go on tilt. So I probably shouldn't do a challenge bet, but of course, being so close to tilt – will!

Stockport should have no problems tonight – they've scored in every home game this season and not conceded in their last five matches. On my ratings they are 1/3 to win tonight – 2/1 on is probably the right price.

£500 Challenge

Stockport £20 win at 4/7

Tuesday 8th April

At least my racing fund had Or De Grugy to win yesterday!

I did toy with the idea of a couple of bets today, but again will keep them in their respective funds only. Carlisle play Swansea and I need Swansea to buck up, so I'll continue hedging here with a win bet on Carlisle. 11/8 is only fair odds though.

Racing I can see an each way (near thieving) double on the sand, but need to wait until nearer to make sure both races continue to be the dead eight. Lancaster Lad (2:10 Lingfield) and Solicitude (4:00 Southwell) in a slightly more competitive heat.

Which leaves us with? Yep the golf.

Had Tiger Woods won Doral what price would he be now? Odds on and a few brave souls nudging evens, would be my guess. In fact he finished right on the heels of the leaders despite putting all week like a wombat with chopsticks. I'd have him a shade of odds on to be honest. The bookies have to get him in the book though, the liabilities on a whole host of golfers at big prices would scare the pants off them otherwise. The price is attractive enough to take a few golfers to win in the without Woods market (Ogilvy and a few who you can't see winning but could see being an honourable second, or just your favourites), and still end up with the equivalent of a perfectly acceptable evens winner on Woods, plus a nice hedge and/or possible bonus.

£500 Challenge

Woods £20 win at 5/4 or better

Ogilvy w/out Woods £1 win at 16/1

Choi w/out Woods £1 win at 25/1

Rose w/out Woods £1 win at 25/1

Donald w/out Woods £1 win at 35/1

Stenson w/out Woods £1 win at 45/1

Monday 7th April

Keep it simple today.

The Kelso novice chase. The Whisperer looks a decent northern novice, though he only beat a bouncing favourite last time, has a shorter distance to cope with, and Rose, and is a short-priced Richards fave. Of the rest ShrewdInvestor is getting backed this morning but is as likely to be pulled up. The solid one is Or De Grugy. Bradburne's horses try. Even if Mark is useless.

£500 Challenge

Or De Grugy £20 place at 1.4 or better.

Sunday 6th April

I'm glad to see the back of Aintree. With each year that passes with this as a job rather than a hobby the more I hanker for quieter days, and uncompetitive events. Cheltenham is different because it's so tied up in ante post activity. I'm thinking perhaps I ought to treat Aintree differently next year – as an annual holiday. It's always close to my birthday (on which I can't remember ever waking up to inches of snow before), and the National itself is very much wound up in my childhood.

Anyway, a complete change today and we enter the world of club rugby, something I can't pretend to know anything about. I have been given a heads up on this though – the Ospreys (or as I'm told - effectively the Welsh international side), against Saracens. The betting (I'm told) is based on a comprehensive thrashing last time and a full set of players. Most bookies are ducking this. 4/9 in places and 1.5 betfair. The 8/13 is gone but 4/7 looks worth taking.

The football has a tricky feel to it. I could have taken 1.25 Everton, but for them looking legless and lost without Cahill. I could even have taken Derby not to lose by two or more, but can't bring myself to. Man Utd are up against a team who outperform against the big sides, and the cup semi-final is fairly priced..

Besides, a change seemed as good as a rest.

£500 Challenge

Ospreys £20 win at 4/7

Saturday 5th April

Today I'm stopping myself from backing old favourites Kruguyrova, Osana and Dream Alliance, though I have covered the treble just in case!

The National is what I'm left with. I have a big ante post book and I'd be happy with it if I had taken the 25/1 Cloudy Lane, but that looks an omission at the moment. Looking for anything that appeals this morning hasn't been easy, but here's the tissue and then my rather more obscure choices.

National

Cloudy Lane 9/1

Comply or Die 11/1

Simon 12/1

Hedgehunter 20/1

Mr Pointment 20/1

Slim Pickings 20/1

Chelsea Harbour 20/1

Snowy Morning 20/1

Bewleys Berry 20/1

Point Barrow 20/1

KingJohns Castle 25/1

Mon Mome 25/1

Turko 33/1

Madison Du Berlais 33/1

Butlers Cabin 33/1

McKelvey 33/1

Dargent 33/1

Dun Doire 33/1

Knowhere 50/1

Backbeat 50/1

Idle Talk 50/1

Black Appalachi 50/1

Overall, I'm inclined to think the topweights are increasingly favoured and the market is possibly working to old trends. I said the same last year and was hopelessly wrong. Still, this morning I'm inclined to start there and add some place type bets to my portfolio.

Corals are doing a foreign race, and a British race market and, despite the overrounds (!), I like both of these. Hedgehunter is 15/2 in their foreign market and that looks too long. In the British market I keep looking at Madison Du Berlais who is at the same price as I have him in the overall market. Then, in the place market Knowhere looks too long, as does Mon Mome.

£500 Challenge

Hedgehunter – Irish race £5ew at 15/2

Madison Du Berlais – home race - £2.50ew at 33/1

Hedgehunter place £2 at 4/1

Mon Mome place £2 at 15/2 (7 ok)

Knowhere place £1 at 18/1 (16 ok)

Friday 4th April

Onwards. Thanks to the anonymous poster for the kind words yesterday.

2:00

I'd assumed I'd find a bet in this, seeing as I specialise in novice chases, but nope. Albertas Run is opposable, Aintree didn't look his track when he ran here before, but it isn't easy finding anything to beat him. If I thought Cedrus Libani would stay I'd like him for a place.

2:35

Was keen on Tazbar before everyone and his dog started barking his name and he got put in at 15/8. I priced at 9/4, so will sit this one out. Nenuphar Collonges should really place, but he was scrubbed along early at Cheltenham and this track wouldn't suit based on that.

3:10

Master Minded 1/3 actually looks fair, but who cares!

3:45

I thought Nacarat would be suited to this after Wincanton. The race is full of exposed horses and if he avoids typical Aintree trouble he should be there at the end. I put him in at what looks a silly 7/1, so he has to be backable at 12s!

4:20

I wouldn't be surprised if Khyber Kim bounced back here unbacked! Blue Bajan is one I think can get closer to the favourite on a track that will ideally suit, getting the weight, and with the stable in form. 10/1 looks a very workable price. I'd have him priced with Greenbridge (impressive last time) and Pierrot Lunaire.

4:55

As with Khyber Kim, expect Mr Strachan to romp home now he's not burdened with my cash. Kings Euro looks like he may get a soft lead here, and if he does he can get them all at it. Probably more a back to lay he still looks very backable at 7/1.

£500 Challenge

£3 win Blue Bajan at 10/1

£10 place Blue Bajan at 2/1 (7/4 ok)

£2.50 ew Nacarat at 12/1

£2.50 ew Kings Euro at 7/1

3 x 30p ew doubles

1x10pew treble

Howl

God I bet badly today. As bad as since I can hardly remember. (Though funnily enough last year's Aintree I was definitely on tilt and only a very large priced ante post bet on Silver Birch let me off a hiding).

The challenge bets were fine – so they lost – big deal – that's racing. I don't have a problem with them. The fund can cope with that. At that time of day I was in neutral – humming along on a settled period of gambling – not rich but paying my way, as is.

A few hours later I was gone. I have a puppy. Four months and a handful, now beautifully asleep! He walks pretty well on the lead, but when he sees a car it's as though the collie part of him kicks in and he loses it completely. His head is gone, he strains, he barks, he whines, his forelegs are off the ground as he attempts to launch himself at the passing car. Afterwards, I try to get him to sit, to calm down. But he's not there. His head is gone, somewhere else, wrestling 4x4s to the ground. In essence that's how I bet today.

And my racing fund bore the brunt, and paid the price. After Cheltenham I realigned the fund, changed its objectives, recognised that the market (betfair driven) was leaving me behind, and put in place betting and staking strategies to move me forward. Then today, faced with the first proper meeting since the change I just reverted to my old ways. Bet management, money management, emotion management, all went to hell in a handcart. In short, I played like a fuckwit. And by the end of the day I was definitely on tilt. Ok, so not on tilt like those years ago when I bust my bank at Cheltenham, but on tilt in a methadone kind of way.

I hate that Gillette advert with Woods, Federer and Henry (why him?). But hopefully I can take their lead and brush the bloodstains of today off my shirt and attempt not to lose it tomorrow. Anne may not understand much about what I do, but she is attuned to my emotions. She returned to to say "it's a very strange thing you do".

Amen.

Thursday 3rd April

Just as well I sat on my thumbs yesterday for the challenge.

Aintree today.

2:00

Inglis Drever would be something like 4/6 if this was at Cheltenham. The fears about the track not suiting are valid but being overdone in the market. All in all, and assuming all is well, he should be Evens. As with other years I have no problems giving some back here if he fails. He has much less on his plate with regards opponents than Kauto Star and Celestial Halo.

4:20

Leslingtaylor has a lot in his favour here. The majority of these are fully exposed. He loves a flat track, has course form, and beat (luckily admittedly, but gamely) Tidal Bay at Doncaster. Of his main challengers Lennon prefers bossing a small field, and Andreas and Desert Quest are both better at placing than winning. I have him in at 6/1. Pricewise has whazzocked the price this morning but 15/2ish is still worth taking.

5:30

I don't have a real read of this race but I do keep looking at Palomar. Unbelievably he looked like a non trier in the Tote Trophy. Probably just mecurial, but Richards isn't one to take at face value, and his horses run well at this meeting. I'm going to dabble.

Taunton slips by unnoticed, and Leading Attraction is back out again, this time in another match he should have little trouble winning. We'll get him on-side again.

£500 Challenge

Inglis Drever £10 win at 11/8 or better

Leading Attraction £10 win at 4/6

Leslingtaylor £5 win at 8/1 (7/1 ok).

Wednesday 2nd April

I can't find a bet for today. 'Unders' Fenerbache was tempting, but as with yesterday the price looks right.

Racing – I was going to take the 11/8 Sonny Red that lasted a few minutes this morning. But VC have stopped laying me any decent bets. Besides the horse is inconsistent and I've vowed not to have any big bets on Richard Hughes this season. Hernandos Boy to place at Catterick also drew me in, but that looks a competitive little race and he was pulled up last time out.

With Aintree looming I'll price up the weekend football today and may put up a bet for that later if I find anything.

Tuesday 1st April

I looked at the Champions League matches – particularly 'unders', but no dice. I looked at Ryan Moore's one ride at Folkestone but best steer clear.

I thought about putting up a National portfolio but will stick with my ante post bets for now (which for interest are: Simon, Snowy Morning, Mon Mome, Chelsea Harbour, King Johns Castle, and more non runners than are healthy).

Luckily lower league football has come to the rescue, and once I'd updated my ratings from the weekend we were left with an obvious bet.

Carlisle go from strength to strength. They've won all bar two home games, and those ages ago. They have scored every home game and only conceded 10 all season. They are top of my ratings and still threaten to kill my Swansea/MK Dons double. Nottingham Forest on the other hand continue to be average – in fact they are on exactly the same rating as they started the year. It's true they aren't easy to beat away from home, and that and their name look to be propping the price up here. Carlisle should at least be Evens and arguably odds on. We could have kept the draw half on-side and I was going to settle for that when 11/10 looked the best price, but having just got 6/5 we'll stick to the straight win – particularly as it continues to be a hedge for me.

£500 Challenge

£25 win at 6/5 (11/10 ok)

Monthly Review of challenge

Review of £500 challenge since inception.

Current standing £952.02

Football

61 bets

37 wins

128% returns

Racing

127 bets

59 wins

112% returns

All bets

204 bets

104 wins

113% returns

The aim was to double the money April to April. We look to have fallen just short. Mustn't grumble though! A decent profit had you been betting with a good sized bank. This challenge, and reading the two books mentioned elsewhere “Fooled By Randomness” and “Black Swan” has actually realigned my approach over the last few months, and my daily betting actually more closely reflects the blog than it did a year ago. So I'm more than happy to continue with it.