Friday, January 02, 2009

Friday 2nd January

Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current bank £3015)
This week's stake - £300.

I had a small bet on Phil Taylor from last year's fund. I've added to it and moved it to here, so I have a bet on Taylor at 1.3 with a get out of jail free card on Barneveld

Today, we'll do a long-term bet – not really something I like in this fund – but I do it every year and this is the obvious place to put it. The big 4 win the FA Cup – 12 of last 13 I think. Last year was a hiccup naturally but there's little reason to think normality won't be restored. I'm especially looking at the likelihood of two or more coming a cropper in the next round of the Champions League. Also pretty much every other team in the Premiership this year is either balls out for Europe, or fighting relegation. I can see plenty of them playing reserves in this.

We can beat betfair prices and dutch them at 1.75 – last year they were 1.5 and I think that's closer to reality.





2009 Challenge Fund (£9912)


It's always good to get off to a flyer. Instead I made £2 on my first bet! I played the front three in the novice chase at Cheltenham yesterday – having put the chances of the outsiders at around 7%. I beat that easily but through incompetence/greed I ended up with a lop-sided dutch and Calgary Bay was the one of my three to be under-staked.

My second bet was worse. I convinced myself the ultra competitive handicap chase could be boiled down to 5 and bet my tissue accordingly. A mistake I'm determined to eradicate. I did steal a tenner back in-running. But a silly start to the year.

Today we can play the quarter final darts. Nicholson is the new kid on the block, and Wade the “class” act. The old quote about form and class may hold sway, but current tournament form has Nicholson averaging mid 90s, and Wade nowhere near. It's the sort of situation very hard to price right, a potentially good betting scenario, and I'll play that 11/8 Nicholson is too long. £100.

1 comment:

  1. gobsmackingly terrible darts - Nicholson beaten by someone averaging 80.

    Can't complain about the bet based on Wade's performance.

    ReplyDelete