My new golf strategy hardly started in a blaze of glory. I'll keep drowning though. This week's brick is in the Russian Open (I'll consider Woods tomorrow). A hopeless event. Jan Derksen is the one who interests me. He has won in the past - which is more than most of these, and has been finishing in the ruck more often than not this year in much better events. I'll be backing ew at 33/1, and dumping the win element.
Goodwood 2:15
The favourites are from strong. A race to throw some darts - no idea on what though - Tregoning's French import? Fahey's at the bottom? Dansili dancer likes the course?
Goodwood 2:50
Sometimes you do a tissue and exactly matches the morning line. You feel good about it, then realise it leaves you without a bet, at least at early odds.
Goodwood 3:25
I've got Royal Oath at 4/1. A mistake but worth pursuing. Asset may well be feeling his races. Also there looks to be a fierce pace here, and closers should prevail, as long as they get a run. He's the £500 challenge horse for today. I'll major on the places to cover the bad luck that dogs closers on the track.
Goodwood 4:35
Samurai Way looks a solid fave here. Cumani loves the race and he looks the only improver.
3/1 is perfectly fair.
£500 Challenge
Royal Oath £9 place at 6/4 or better
Royal Oath £4 win at 6/1 or better
Running Total
£588.24
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Monday, July 30, 2007
Monday 30 July
Football season multiples finally decided on. This is an annual event with myself and two mates.
We each choose a couple of teams in each division and then bet according to overlaps. Always value for money, plenty of time to trade to cover changing events, and the usual big number dreams on the outsiders to keep you interested all winter.
This season we have all gone for MK Dons!
They make up one of our core teams where there is overlap - along with:
Coventry/Southampton
Swansea
We'll cover those in doubles and trebles.
Then we'll make them bankers in trebles with our single choices:
Wolves/WBA/Cardiff
Millwall/Brighton/yeovil/Oldham
Grimsby/Wycombe/Stockport/Lincoln/Rochdale
It takes a whole day to get the bets on (75 of them this year) but makes Soccer Saturday a must watch all season.
We each choose a couple of teams in each division and then bet according to overlaps. Always value for money, plenty of time to trade to cover changing events, and the usual big number dreams on the outsiders to keep you interested all winter.
This season we have all gone for MK Dons!
They make up one of our core teams where there is overlap - along with:
Coventry/Southampton
Swansea
We'll cover those in doubles and trebles.
Then we'll make them bankers in trebles with our single choices:
Wolves/WBA/Cardiff
Millwall/Brighton/yeovil/Oldham
Grimsby/Wycombe/Stockport/Lincoln/Rochdale
It takes a whole day to get the bets on (75 of them this year) but makes Soccer Saturday a must watch all season.
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Racing - Sunday 29th
Let's see if I format it differently...
Pontefract 3:50
Blue Ksar 6/4; Tam Linn 6/4; Flying Clarets 7/1; Contentious 11/1. To be honest I've gone off trying to guess which is the best Godolphin horse. I'd side with Blue Ksar but they're both a bit dodgy. One to miss.
Pontefract 4:25
Genki 9/4; Damika 8/1; Stonecrabstomorrow 8/1; Geojimali 8/1; Bid For Gold 8/1; Bel Cantor 8/1. Genki looks solid here, and I'm surprised he's so weak. It's worrying and suggests either people are dismissing the last race he won as rubbish (which it was) or that this is a prep (more likely). Either way I'll have to play at 3/1 - could wait for longer but I want to go out and make the most of the sliver of sunshine!
Ascot 2:50
Forget the tissue. Throwing darts - why not Hoh Hoh Hoh and The Jobber at around 25s and Green Manalishi looks forgotten at 33/1.
Pontefract 3:50
Blue Ksar 6/4; Tam Linn 6/4; Flying Clarets 7/1; Contentious 11/1. To be honest I've gone off trying to guess which is the best Godolphin horse. I'd side with Blue Ksar but they're both a bit dodgy. One to miss.
Pontefract 4:25
Genki 9/4; Damika 8/1; Stonecrabstomorrow 8/1; Geojimali 8/1; Bid For Gold 8/1; Bel Cantor 8/1. Genki looks solid here, and I'm surprised he's so weak. It's worrying and suggests either people are dismissing the last race he won as rubbish (which it was) or that this is a prep (more likely). Either way I'll have to play at 3/1 - could wait for longer but I want to go out and make the most of the sliver of sunshine!
Ascot 2:50
Forget the tissue. Throwing darts - why not Hoh Hoh Hoh and The Jobber at around 25s and Green Manalishi looks forgotten at 33/1.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Racing - Saturday 28th July
Three good bets here today, but on reflection none of them good enough for the £500 challenge.
Ascot 2:35
One Hour performed badly last time out, but still looks the one at 11/4 against very disappointing older horses.
Ascot 3:10
Al Khaleej 4/1
Ea 5/1
Mesbah 7/1
Gongidas 7/1
Annemassee 12/1
Mr Aviator 12/1
Not a race to get stuck into. Notable that Corals are also shortest about Mesbah, and with 17 runners I'l take the ew 10/1 but not a headline bet.
Ascot 3:45
Been doing well this year not getting dragged into these races. On my tissue King of Argos and Third Set are backable - I'll wait.
Ascot 4:20
Dylan Thomas 6/4
Scorpion 9/2
Maraahel 7/1
Prince Flori 10/1
Youmzain 11/1
Laverock 12/1
Sergeant Cecil 20/1 (for love!)
Prince Flori was the ew bet with three places ap. On good ground I can't see why Dylan Thomas is so long.
York 3:15
Site running slow so no tissue -
Winged Cupid looks a good bet to beat Eagle Mountain here.
York 3:50
El Bosque - only 7/2 with me - no pace in this - should make all.
Ascot 2:35
One Hour performed badly last time out, but still looks the one at 11/4 against very disappointing older horses.
Ascot 3:10
Al Khaleej 4/1
Ea 5/1
Mesbah 7/1
Gongidas 7/1
Annemassee 12/1
Mr Aviator 12/1
Not a race to get stuck into. Notable that Corals are also shortest about Mesbah, and with 17 runners I'l take the ew 10/1 but not a headline bet.
Ascot 3:45
Been doing well this year not getting dragged into these races. On my tissue King of Argos and Third Set are backable - I'll wait.
Ascot 4:20
Dylan Thomas 6/4
Scorpion 9/2
Maraahel 7/1
Prince Flori 10/1
Youmzain 11/1
Laverock 12/1
Sergeant Cecil 20/1 (for love!)
Prince Flori was the ew bet with three places ap. On good ground I can't see why Dylan Thomas is so long.
York 3:15
Site running slow so no tissue -
Winged Cupid looks a good bet to beat Eagle Mountain here.
York 3:50
El Bosque - only 7/2 with me - no pace in this - should make all.
Friday, July 27, 2007
Racing - Friday 27th July
Feel like I've got a handle on some of these races, which makes a change of late. Doesn't mean that will equate to profit of course!
Ascot 1:35
Reverence 7/2
Drayton 11/2
Sonny Red 7/1
Assertive 16/1
Reverence solid, but that's a big penalty against a couple of decent youngsters, and a feeling this is as much of a prep for the Nunthorpe for him. Worth taking on with Drayton at 7/1 or better, and Sonny Red at 10s or better if you can beat Pricewise.
Ascot 3:20
Kaseema 9/2
Treat 9/2
Sudoor 9/2
Harvest Queen 9/1
Wagtail 8/1
Kaseema looks to be popular with little evidence, and as Hills choice. I was thinking of backing her when I briefly looked through the race last night, expecting her to be an outlier on prices.
It may be worth opposing her with Treat and/or Sudoor, depending on their prices late on.
Ascot 3:55
Enjoy The Moment 9/4
Ogee 5/1
Tilt 7/1
Mudawin 9/1
Thewhirlingdervish 9/1
Odiham 11/1
Looks a fight between a solid Enjoy The Moment and Ogee should Ryan get a tune out of him. Prices look right at the moment.
Ascot 4:30
Familiar Territory 3/1
Tears of Clown 3/1
Galactic Star3/1
Speedy Sam 16/1
Have to wait to see what way the prices of the front three move.
Newmarket 8:15
Classic Punch 9/4
Hard Top 9/4
The Geezer 9/4
Hard Top should reverse form with Classic Punch with the weight pull. Can't help feel the latter is the only of these improving though, and 11/4 looks worth taking.
Ascot 1:35
Reverence 7/2
Drayton 11/2
Sonny Red 7/1
Assertive 16/1
Reverence solid, but that's a big penalty against a couple of decent youngsters, and a feeling this is as much of a prep for the Nunthorpe for him. Worth taking on with Drayton at 7/1 or better, and Sonny Red at 10s or better if you can beat Pricewise.
Ascot 3:20
Kaseema 9/2
Treat 9/2
Sudoor 9/2
Harvest Queen 9/1
Wagtail 8/1
Kaseema looks to be popular with little evidence, and as Hills choice. I was thinking of backing her when I briefly looked through the race last night, expecting her to be an outlier on prices.
It may be worth opposing her with Treat and/or Sudoor, depending on their prices late on.
Ascot 3:55
Enjoy The Moment 9/4
Ogee 5/1
Tilt 7/1
Mudawin 9/1
Thewhirlingdervish 9/1
Odiham 11/1
Looks a fight between a solid Enjoy The Moment and Ogee should Ryan get a tune out of him. Prices look right at the moment.
Ascot 4:30
Familiar Territory 3/1
Tears of Clown 3/1
Galactic Star3/1
Speedy Sam 16/1
Have to wait to see what way the prices of the front three move.
Newmarket 8:15
Classic Punch 9/4
Hard Top 9/4
The Geezer 9/4
Hard Top should reverse form with Classic Punch with the weight pull. Can't help feel the latter is the only of these improving though, and 11/4 looks worth taking.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Thursday 26 July - £500 challenge
You have to laugh at the Tour de Farce. I'm looking at a big hole should Leipheimer blow past the front two. Otherwise I'll escape unharmed and determined to never bet on the sport again!
Sandown an interesting card today, which in olden Tooting days I'd almost certainly have attended. Probably would have stuck to the placepot and Richard Hills (who rides Sandown best). Apart from this race.
4:30 Sandown
Seabow 9/2
Tears of a Clown 9/2
Night Cru 5/1
Cedar Mountain 6/1
Manbar 6/1
Cabinet 12/1
I've got this much more compressed than the morning lines. Which leaves me with a no brainer bet. Cedar Mountain and Manbar are both available at 10/1 and possibly better. Back them both and throw in the forecast.
I'm not entirely sure this should be £500 challenge material. It's a competitive little race after all. And the challenge has suffered with three poor golf bets in a row. Still, the prices do kind of demand it. As we've dipped below £600 I'll reduce back to original stakes as well, which would suit this bet anyway.
£500 Challenge
Cedar Mountain £6 win at 10/1 guaranteed
Manbar £6 win at 10/1 guaranteed
25p reverse fc.
Running total
£594.74
Sandown an interesting card today, which in olden Tooting days I'd almost certainly have attended. Probably would have stuck to the placepot and Richard Hills (who rides Sandown best). Apart from this race.
4:30 Sandown
Seabow 9/2
Tears of a Clown 9/2
Night Cru 5/1
Cedar Mountain 6/1
Manbar 6/1
Cabinet 12/1
I've got this much more compressed than the morning lines. Which leaves me with a no brainer bet. Cedar Mountain and Manbar are both available at 10/1 and possibly better. Back them both and throw in the forecast.
I'm not entirely sure this should be £500 challenge material. It's a competitive little race after all. And the challenge has suffered with three poor golf bets in a row. Still, the prices do kind of demand it. As we've dipped below £600 I'll reduce back to original stakes as well, which would suit this bet anyway.
£500 Challenge
Cedar Mountain £6 win at 10/1 guaranteed
Manbar £6 win at 10/1 guaranteed
25p reverse fc.
Running total
£594.74
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Tuesday July 24th
I spent yesterday doing some golf research and think I'm going to follow a new angle until the end of the season. I'm fed up with the win market where any value is frankly too small to bother about and it's just too hard for golfers to win. The end result is too many bets and too long losing streaks.
My new focus is on the place market, and my research focused on pricing up top 5 prices. I intend to take the 'value' in the each way markets and lay off the win bet. If successful I imagine it won't be long before I get limited but that would represent a step forward on where I am at the moment with golf betting!
This week's straw man is Fasth - who I'll take at 14/1 ew top 6, and ditch the win element on betfair. Should this new approach prove successful it would fit in very well for £500 challenge purposes - better than the golf has fared so far anyway!
In the Tour I've hedged out most of my Contador winnings to cover Rasmussen. Contador has a chance but I don't think he can break Rasmussen - and the last thing I want to do right now is lose on the book overall. I need Evans to hang on for 3rd to be sure of that.
No racing worth bothering with today, perhaps a couple of spot plays in the early non-impossible races at Yarmouth.
My new focus is on the place market, and my research focused on pricing up top 5 prices. I intend to take the 'value' in the each way markets and lay off the win bet. If successful I imagine it won't be long before I get limited but that would represent a step forward on where I am at the moment with golf betting!
This week's straw man is Fasth - who I'll take at 14/1 ew top 6, and ditch the win element on betfair. Should this new approach prove successful it would fit in very well for £500 challenge purposes - better than the golf has fared so far anyway!
In the Tour I've hedged out most of my Contador winnings to cover Rasmussen. Contador has a chance but I don't think he can break Rasmussen - and the last thing I want to do right now is lose on the book overall. I need Evans to hang on for 3rd to be sure of that.
No racing worth bothering with today, perhaps a couple of spot plays in the early non-impossible races at Yarmouth.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Monday 23rd July
The golf over the last two weeks hasn't done the £500 challenge much good, and I think I'll ignore last round leaders from now on!
The golf fund actually made a profit on its bets - with Richard Green being top Australian and Els placing. My trading fund fared less well though, with only Harrington able to hurt me on the last day. I did manage to minimise losses in the fund, trading out Garcia in dribs and drabs over the tournament, which at least made me feel more like a professional than the idiot I probably was.
The Tour is still finely balanced but again it looks like I may get gubbed by my only remaining red - Rasmussen. Inclined to sit and suffer for now. Contador looks the real deal for the future, doesn't he?
I could do with some decent racing to get me going again. Nothing doing today. We need some decent weather ahead of Goodwood (and York), which after my personal Ascot washout is beginning to look key to my season's success.
Today I'm going to do some research into top 5 finishes in golf tournaments over the last few seasons, and finalise my football league accumulators.
The golf fund actually made a profit on its bets - with Richard Green being top Australian and Els placing. My trading fund fared less well though, with only Harrington able to hurt me on the last day. I did manage to minimise losses in the fund, trading out Garcia in dribs and drabs over the tournament, which at least made me feel more like a professional than the idiot I probably was.
The Tour is still finely balanced but again it looks like I may get gubbed by my only remaining red - Rasmussen. Inclined to sit and suffer for now. Contador looks the real deal for the future, doesn't he?
I could do with some decent racing to get me going again. Nothing doing today. We need some decent weather ahead of Goodwood (and York), which after my personal Ascot washout is beginning to look key to my season's success.
Today I'm going to do some research into top 5 finishes in golf tournaments over the last few seasons, and finalise my football league accumulators.
Sunday, July 22, 2007
Sunday - golf £500 Challenge
It was only last week that Mickelson cost us having looked away and gone. And here I am about to do it again on Garcia.
He's well clear, bar Stricker. Stricker is solid enough in contention but hasn't won for an age. In truth neither has Garcia and the last twice he was as comfortably in the lead as this going into the last round he blew it.
However, there's rain around and that to me is a huge advantage for him. Yesterday people were able to move up the leaderboard through shooting low. Turn it into a war of attrition and Sergio only has to keep the ball on the fairway to win. Over 1.7 on betfair looks fair to me.
I still carry the scars of Mickelson, (and and Van de Velde and Bjorn in past Opens), so put a lay in for something like 1.1 just in case- (I won't bother with this when accounting for £500 challenge though).
£500 Challenge
Garcia £15 win at 1.7
Running Total
£609.74
He's well clear, bar Stricker. Stricker is solid enough in contention but hasn't won for an age. In truth neither has Garcia and the last twice he was as comfortably in the lead as this going into the last round he blew it.
However, there's rain around and that to me is a huge advantage for him. Yesterday people were able to move up the leaderboard through shooting low. Turn it into a war of attrition and Sergio only has to keep the ball on the fairway to win. Over 1.7 on betfair looks fair to me.
I still carry the scars of Mickelson, (and and Van de Velde and Bjorn in past Opens), so put a lay in for something like 1.1 just in case- (I won't bother with this when accounting for £500 challenge though).
£500 Challenge
Garcia £15 win at 1.7
Running Total
£609.74
Saturday, July 21, 2007
Saturday 21 July
Our new rented flat is on the first floor so we are currently immune from flooding.
However a friend phones from Hammersmith of all places to say his basement flat flooded yesterday. The brother-in-law in Tewkesbury spent the night making sarnies and soup for people stuck inside the town unable to get out, whilst waiting for his wife, who was stuck outside the town unable to get in!
So, hardly a day to take seriously what little racing remains, certainly not at early prices. I'd go to Newport summer show instead but can't be arsed to get stuck in the car park! Think I'll watch the golf and Tour instead and wonder at another betting day lost.
Strange times. My deepest sympathy to anyone caught up in it.
However a friend phones from Hammersmith of all places to say his basement flat flooded yesterday. The brother-in-law in Tewkesbury spent the night making sarnies and soup for people stuck inside the town unable to get out, whilst waiting for his wife, who was stuck outside the town unable to get in!
So, hardly a day to take seriously what little racing remains, certainly not at early prices. I'd go to Newport summer show instead but can't be arsed to get stuck in the car park! Think I'll watch the golf and Tour instead and wonder at another betting day lost.
Strange times. My deepest sympathy to anyone caught up in it.
Friday, July 20, 2007
Friday 20th July
It was only around 09:30 yesterday and my golf bets were already in tatters!
Tiger can save me, and I did dabble on Garcia on Sunday when I saw he had moved to the belly putter (and before I watched him still yip with that late on!). Looks a long day trying to recover something meaningful from the event though. Or I'll just try and forget about the betting and enjoy it.
Will need to keep an eye on the Tour as well, and half an eye on the cricket, and probably do a couple of spot plays at Newbury. It's been a long month without either broadband or sky, so I think I'll make the most of my return, hopefully without being suckered into action bets.
There's certainly no £500 challenge bets. JM Singh played more like JM Barrie yesterday. (And Richard Sterne played more like Laurence Sterne). But if he could just make the cut...
Tiger can save me, and I did dabble on Garcia on Sunday when I saw he had moved to the belly putter (and before I watched him still yip with that late on!). Looks a long day trying to recover something meaningful from the event though. Or I'll just try and forget about the betting and enjoy it.
Will need to keep an eye on the Tour as well, and half an eye on the cricket, and probably do a couple of spot plays at Newbury. It's been a long month without either broadband or sky, so I think I'll make the most of my return, hopefully without being suckered into action bets.
There's certainly no £500 challenge bets. JM Singh played more like JM Barrie yesterday. (And Richard Sterne played more like Laurence Sterne). But if he could just make the cut...
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Tuesday July 17th
Yarmouth 7:55
An interesting little race. Five horses in the mix. One a raider; one 7th in the Oaks; another 5th in the Ribblesdale; one 6th in the Guineas and lastly an unbeaten horse up in class. The market should be much more compact than it is - the fave looks short - and that will decide my strategy.
Otherwise I'll be watching the Tour waiting to see if a winner is anywhere to be seen.
An interesting little race. Five horses in the mix. One a raider; one 7th in the Oaks; another 5th in the Ribblesdale; one 6th in the Guineas and lastly an unbeaten horse up in class. The market should be much more compact than it is - the fave looks short - and that will decide my strategy.
Otherwise I'll be watching the Tour waiting to see if a winner is anywhere to be seen.
Monday, July 16, 2007
Open Golf (£500 Challenge)
Personally I'll keep Tiger on-side and dabble on my two faves.
I took Sterne Sunday ew at 125/1
and Jeev Milka Singh win at 500/1 and ew at 250/1.
I'll then play in-running.
Group betting I'll go for in-form European tour guys who may not be good enough to win outright but are showing enough to be in the mix:
Jacquelin top mainland European ew at 22/1
Dredge top UK and Ireland ew at 33/1
Green top Australian ew at 20/1
and Casey top Englishman win at 5/1
However, the bet of the week is my old mucker JM Singh to be top Asian ew at 12/1. He only has KJ Choi and Vijay at credible odds against him, and looks a cracking bet. I don't suppose it will last long - 10s would still be OK.
£500 Challenge
JM Singh £7.50 ew Top Asian 12/1 ew fifth 123
Running Total
£624.74
I took Sterne Sunday ew at 125/1
and Jeev Milka Singh win at 500/1 and ew at 250/1.
I'll then play in-running.
Group betting I'll go for in-form European tour guys who may not be good enough to win outright but are showing enough to be in the mix:
Jacquelin top mainland European ew at 22/1
Dredge top UK and Ireland ew at 33/1
Green top Australian ew at 20/1
and Casey top Englishman win at 5/1
However, the bet of the week is my old mucker JM Singh to be top Asian ew at 12/1. He only has KJ Choi and Vijay at credible odds against him, and looks a cracking bet. I don't suppose it will last long - 10s would still be OK.
£500 Challenge
JM Singh £7.50 ew Top Asian 12/1 ew fifth 123
Running Total
£624.74
Monday 16th July
I'll be sorting out my Open Golf tissue later. Will update tomorrow.
Also, starting to think about Football league accumulators. I do the latter with a couple of friends. We do around 200 perms, which we then manage throughout the season and it provides terrific value for money. Also some strange conversations Saturday with the wife - "No, we were supporting Crystal Palace last year - it's Millwall this year".
The Tour de France also looks wide open and there may be some juice left. I'm hoping to getSky reconnected in time for tomorrow's stage which looks critical.
Racing today - Ayr 4:00.
Buachaill Donna has looked a short runner to me so far and surprised she's fave. Hard to find a way into race, but can see me playing How's She Cuttin to continue improvement up stands rail, and Caribbean Coral to run on late either each way or for a place.
No £500 Challenge today.
Also, starting to think about Football league accumulators. I do the latter with a couple of friends. We do around 200 perms, which we then manage throughout the season and it provides terrific value for money. Also some strange conversations Saturday with the wife - "No, we were supporting Crystal Palace last year - it's Millwall this year".
The Tour de France also looks wide open and there may be some juice left. I'm hoping to getSky reconnected in time for tomorrow's stage which looks critical.
Racing today - Ayr 4:00.
Buachaill Donna has looked a short runner to me so far and surprised she's fave. Hard to find a way into race, but can see me playing How's She Cuttin to continue improvement up stands rail, and Caribbean Coral to run on late either each way or for a place.
No £500 Challenge today.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Sunday 15th July
I have a betting theory that I will be trialling again today. It's based on names and the notion that punters (and indeed odds compilers) will be averse to something they can't spell or pronounce, leading to value. My original theory was based on the opposite of this. And I fully expect a run on Boo Weekley prior to next week's Open as people jump on-board simply as fans of his name.
Today I will be following this system in the Irish Oaks. The front two are solid and Peeping Fawn's drift may make him backable. Of the two obvious challengers All My Loving looks like he's going to be over bet and Timarwa may be backable. However, I'm following the notion of an upset in the ground to its limit and backing O'Brien's other horse - out of Montjeu so should love the ground and should step up on her first run. Formwise she's no chance of course, so forget £50 challenges. Not many peple will be able to fill out the slip properly so 33s should hold up at least for a while!
Uimhir A Haon ew at 33/1
Get cheering. See "Go Boo" is much easier isn't it.
Today I will be following this system in the Irish Oaks. The front two are solid and Peeping Fawn's drift may make him backable. Of the two obvious challengers All My Loving looks like he's going to be over bet and Timarwa may be backable. However, I'm following the notion of an upset in the ground to its limit and backing O'Brien's other horse - out of Montjeu so should love the ground and should step up on her first run. Formwise she's no chance of course, so forget £50 challenges. Not many peple will be able to fill out the slip properly so 33s should hold up at least for a while!
Uimhir A Haon ew at 33/1
Get cheering. See "Go Boo" is much easier isn't it.
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Scottish Open
I don't know why but it takes an age for the script to type out on here - something to do with the automatic save facility they introduced. It makes me too frustrated to continue typing up tissues on here.
So instead I'll post every day, but focus on £500 challenge bets from now on.
Mickelson is safely in the lead with only Havret close to him. He should shoot 68 or better tomorrow - so the chasing pack have their work cut out. Anything better than 1/2 looks good to me - and you could get close to 4/6 if patient.
£500 challenge
Mickelson £15 at 1/2 or better.
Running total
£639.74
So instead I'll post every day, but focus on £500 challenge bets from now on.
Mickelson is safely in the lead with only Havret close to him. He should shoot 68 or better tomorrow - so the chasing pack have their work cut out. Anything better than 1/2 looks good to me - and you could get close to 4/6 if patient.
£500 challenge
Mickelson £15 at 1/2 or better.
Running total
£639.74
Racing - Sat 14th July
Sorry, no time to produce tissues.
York 2:10
Something of a theme today are races where timeform have horses well clear and they have 'p's alongside their name. The front two are that here. I prefer The Grey Berry personally. Full Victory is interesting here rather than in the John Smiths.
York 2:40
Prospect Court could get a free run here. Worth a punt at 11/4
York 3:15
If you can unravel Fahey's five you're a better man than me. No bet.
York 3:50
Skhilling Spirit 9/2
Game Lad 7/1
Countdown 7/1
Tagula SUnrise 12/1
Very happy to have a thump at Skhilling Spirit at 8/1 (or 7s) here. Hope he doesn't lose it too late at this track though.
Ascot 2:50
I'm a Cesare man - no price today though with some decent sorts in opposition and on the roudn course rather than straight one.
Ascot 4:35
Hoping Out After Dark and Golden Dixie both drift to backable prices (7/2 and 5ish).
Ascot 5:10
Apex 5/2
Cape of Luck 9/2
Waterside 5/1
Florista GG 7/1
Not sure about the Uruguayan, but if you forgive Apex his last run he should have these covered. Decent bet at 7/2ish
Chester 2:25
Song of Passion could lead and is a decent one against plenty with doubts about them.
I thought about Apex and Skhilling Spirit for £500 challenge. But given the state of ground I'll hold fire and instead make them the centre of my accumulators and the latter a banker in the scoop 6
York 2:10
Something of a theme today are races where timeform have horses well clear and they have 'p's alongside their name. The front two are that here. I prefer The Grey Berry personally. Full Victory is interesting here rather than in the John Smiths.
York 2:40
Prospect Court could get a free run here. Worth a punt at 11/4
York 3:15
If you can unravel Fahey's five you're a better man than me. No bet.
York 3:50
Skhilling Spirit 9/2
Game Lad 7/1
Countdown 7/1
Tagula SUnrise 12/1
Very happy to have a thump at Skhilling Spirit at 8/1 (or 7s) here. Hope he doesn't lose it too late at this track though.
Ascot 2:50
I'm a Cesare man - no price today though with some decent sorts in opposition and on the roudn course rather than straight one.
Ascot 4:35
Hoping Out After Dark and Golden Dixie both drift to backable prices (7/2 and 5ish).
Ascot 5:10
Apex 5/2
Cape of Luck 9/2
Waterside 5/1
Florista GG 7/1
Not sure about the Uruguayan, but if you forgive Apex his last run he should have these covered. Decent bet at 7/2ish
Chester 2:25
Song of Passion could lead and is a decent one against plenty with doubts about them.
I thought about Apex and Skhilling Spirit for £500 challenge. But given the state of ground I'll hold fire and instead make them the centre of my accumulators and the latter a banker in the scoop 6
Friday, July 13, 2007
Racing - Friday 13th July
I finally have broadband up and running so should be back to normal soon, I still have to get Sky/Setanta going though.
A difficult July meeting so far, I can't recall ever havinghad a particularly good one.
Newmarket 2:35
Mine 6/1
Intrepid jack 9/1
Something 9/1
dabbers Ridge 9/1
King of Argos 9/1
Bentong 25/1
Jedburgh 25/1
My Paris 25/1
Fixboard 25/1
Giganticus 25/1
Fajr 33/1
Racer Forever 33/1
Typical race. Mine shouldn't win on ratings, but there's something about a stiff 7f cavalry charge that makes him irresistable. Here he is again. For a tickle how about the French raider. Fixboard is 50/1 and as he likes to be up with the pace there could be laying opportunities for the cautious.
Newmarket 3:10
Dutch Art 5/1
Sakhees Secret 6/1
Amadeus Wolf 9/1
Asset 9/1
Soldiers Tale 9/1
Bentleys Bisuit 11/1
Red Clubs 11/1
Mutawajid 20/1
Sander Camillo 20/1
Marchant Dor 25/1
I jumped on board Dutch Art at 10/1 Monday and was going to have a real thump (£500 challenge and all) today but the price has gone, and Pricewise has scuppered any lingering hopes. Prices are based on fast going but it's raining here as I write. Red Clubs is weak and Sander camillo keeps nudging me -they'll do as supporting cast.
A difficult July meeting so far, I can't recall ever havinghad a particularly good one.
Newmarket 2:35
Mine 6/1
Intrepid jack 9/1
Something 9/1
dabbers Ridge 9/1
King of Argos 9/1
Bentong 25/1
Jedburgh 25/1
My Paris 25/1
Fixboard 25/1
Giganticus 25/1
Fajr 33/1
Racer Forever 33/1
Typical race. Mine shouldn't win on ratings, but there's something about a stiff 7f cavalry charge that makes him irresistable. Here he is again. For a tickle how about the French raider. Fixboard is 50/1 and as he likes to be up with the pace there could be laying opportunities for the cautious.
Newmarket 3:10
Dutch Art 5/1
Sakhees Secret 6/1
Amadeus Wolf 9/1
Asset 9/1
Soldiers Tale 9/1
Bentleys Bisuit 11/1
Red Clubs 11/1
Mutawajid 20/1
Sander Camillo 20/1
Marchant Dor 25/1
I jumped on board Dutch Art at 10/1 Monday and was going to have a real thump (£500 challenge and all) today but the price has gone, and Pricewise has scuppered any lingering hopes. Prices are based on fast going but it's raining here as I write. Red Clubs is weak and Sander camillo keeps nudging me -they'll do as supporting cast.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Racing - Thursday 12th July
Yesterday not good.
Newmarket 1:30
Spice Route 2/1
Wing Express 5/1
Samuel 6/1
Halicarnassus 7/1
Tranquil Tiger 7/1
Not my fave race, but I'm inclined to play Spice Route at a weak 9/4 and Samuel at 9/1ish.
Newmarket 3:10
Sixties Icon 2/1
Ivy Creek 5/1
Lucarno 5/1
Eradicate 7/1
Laverock 11/1
Mashaahed 20/1
Papal Bull 20/1
I'm more worried about the penalty for Sixties Icon than I am his last run. He's still better than these unless the weights let in Lucarno (stiff races) or Eradicate.
The penalty puts me off adding him to £500 challenge.
Newmarket 1:30
Spice Route 2/1
Wing Express 5/1
Samuel 6/1
Halicarnassus 7/1
Tranquil Tiger 7/1
Not my fave race, but I'm inclined to play Spice Route at a weak 9/4 and Samuel at 9/1ish.
Newmarket 3:10
Sixties Icon 2/1
Ivy Creek 5/1
Lucarno 5/1
Eradicate 7/1
Laverock 11/1
Mashaahed 20/1
Papal Bull 20/1
I'm more worried about the penalty for Sixties Icon than I am his last run. He's still better than these unless the weights let in Lucarno (stiff races) or Eradicate.
The penalty puts me off adding him to £500 challenge.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Racing - Weds 11th July and £500 Challenge
Newmarket 3:10.
I have a problem here. I'd definitely have Red Evie as favourite over Nannina. The prices look an over-reaction to Ascot to me. Nannina beat up some just useful fillies, whilst Red Evie disappointed but she had already beaten her conquerors fair and square in the Lockinge. I have Red Evie as a good thump down the ground.
Newmarket 5:30
Lady Stardust is a legitimate fave here based on her last run and Fanshawe should know what he's doing. 4/1 looks very fair and bigger will probably be available.
£500 Challenge
£15 Red Evie at 7/2 or better
Running Total
£654.74
I have a problem here. I'd definitely have Red Evie as favourite over Nannina. The prices look an over-reaction to Ascot to me. Nannina beat up some just useful fillies, whilst Red Evie disappointed but she had already beaten her conquerors fair and square in the Lockinge. I have Red Evie as a good thump down the ground.
Newmarket 5:30
Lady Stardust is a legitimate fave here based on her last run and Fanshawe should know what he's doing. 4/1 looks very fair and bigger will probably be available.
£500 Challenge
£15 Red Evie at 7/2 or better
Running Total
£654.74
Friday, July 06, 2007
Racing - Coral Eclipse (£500 Challenge)
I'm moving house again tomorrow, and BT Broadband are causing me extreme grief also - take that as advice never to use. So, here's The Eclipse and I'll skip the rest. This is getting beyond frustrating and really has been a month to forget.
Sandown.
No tissue. Authorised obviously hot legitimate favourite, but at the prices and with the dead 8 we have to take him on each way, if only on trends grounds. Of course the field will probably cut up even more - I'm a mixture of ante post and day of race, but goven lack of access tomorrow don't have much choice if I want to play other than to take my chances.
No reward for guessing my choices. Notnowcato has to be the each way choice at 6s or better and I'll stick with Archipenko personally as well having jumped off the cliff with him at Epsom.
£500 Challenge
Notnowcato £7.50 6/1 or better
Running Total
£600.65
Sandown.
No tissue. Authorised obviously hot legitimate favourite, but at the prices and with the dead 8 we have to take him on each way, if only on trends grounds. Of course the field will probably cut up even more - I'm a mixture of ante post and day of race, but goven lack of access tomorrow don't have much choice if I want to play other than to take my chances.
No reward for guessing my choices. Notnowcato has to be the each way choice at 6s or better and I'll stick with Archipenko personally as well having jumped off the cliff with him at Epsom.
£500 Challenge
Notnowcato £7.50 6/1 or better
Running Total
£600.65
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