Saturday 29th Sept

Ascot 3:40
Utmost Respect 4/1
Lovelace 7/1
Wise Dennis 9/1
Shevchenko 9/1
Candidato Roy 25/1
Mine 25/1
Minority Report 25/1
Docofthebay 25/1
Presumptive 25/1
Binanti 25/1
Canehillsundance 25/1
and a slew on 33/1

If I do get involved it would be on Lovelace/Wise Dennis in the place market.

Ascot 4:20
I have Ramonti ew and he should place but the ground has to be a worry now. Shame I missed the 100s on Blue Ksar – who looks a good back to lay shot as one of the only ones to cope with the going.

Otherwise a strange lack of races that appeal. I'll throw a few quid at the scoop 6 and play the place markets on the uncompetitive races.

I'll skip the £500 challenge.

Thursday 27th Sept

I'm off back to London for a trip, so no post tomorrow.

I'll skip the racing for today.

In football the Women's World Cup semi-final between the top-rated team in the world and 8^th best Brazil, sees the favourites drifting this morning. Yet they are undefeated in 50-odd games and have plenty of success over Brazil to their name. It's not often you get to lay under available bookies odds, but that's true here. So I will.

£500 challenge
Lay Brazil at 5/2 or shorter - to lose £15

Running Total
£550.49

Weds September 16th

Goodwood 4:05
Kirklees 5/4
Illustrious Blue 4/1
Windsor knot 11/2
Formal Decree 12/1
Ordnance Row 12/1
Al Tharib 12/1

Kirklees was impressive last time. However, there's the dreaded bounce to consider, plus if he's being prepped for something like the Prix Dollar they won't get to the bottom of him here. The other two Godolphin runners muddy the water, but Illustrious Blue is rock solid. His course form is great and I'll gladly take Evens the place.

For the rest of racing I'll be refining my new approach to uncompetitive races.

Perth 2:30
Balyan booked for a place but is 2/1on a safe investment for a fragile horse.

Perth 4:50
Delightfully up against an unraced fave in a poor juvenile possibly looks a better 2/1on chance to place.

Kempton 6:50
Could happily oppose the fave, and Norman Tradition could be a fighting price to place but weak this morning.

Waiting and watching.

Instead, let's go to the golf for the bet of the day.

The Seve Trophy - Europe at 13/8 looks to be puffed up as a consequence of home team bias. The ratings of the golfers involved this year are pretty tight and both sides have 5 rookies. That in itself should have them closer. But Faldo v Seve clinches it for me. I already fear for the Ryder Cup with Faldo in charge, and though he could assauge thouse fears here, I'll oppose him readily. The 13/8 may have already gone, but 6/4 still looks more than fair.

£500 Challenge
Europe £15 Seve Trophy at 6/4 or better

Running Total
£550.49

Tuesday 25th Sept

Try as I might I just can't find a bet today. A good day to sort out my allotment if I was still in London...

Monday 24th September

I'm looking at three races today with betting potential.

Kempton 1:50

Only two with any worthwhile form and an unraced one from Mark Johnston. Greylami should have little difficulty placing here. I'll play at 1.5 or better.

Leicester 4:00

Birkside looks a legitimate favourite in the claimer, mainly as the only horse to have the winning habit. He did look to dip mid-season, but has still won 3 of his last 7 races. The going is currently pretty quick which would be a worry, but if the rains come to take the sting out – I could play at Evens or better.

Hamilton 3:40

Bonny Rose has run two decent races, just gunned down late last time, admittedly by 100/1 shot but that price looked totally wrong after the race, rather than Bonny Rose looking hopeless. The going an imponderable as above. Also there is an unraced stablemate in here as third favourite so market clues will decide, but I think I'd play at a shade of odds on should the stablemate prove easy to back.

With my new head on I'd rather play these than guess whether Welsh Emperor is going to get caught up in a speed duel or not as I would have done in the past.

£500 challenge
Greylami £15 place at 1.5 or better

Running Total (lucky to skip yesterday)
£542.99

Sunday 23rd September

Benwilt Breeze hurt yesterday. I thought he'd won at the furlong pole and was cheering him home to get me back into the game.

Not so impressive was the fact he traded at 60/1 on betfair just before the off. So much for snaffling the best prices ante post!

Today's £500 challenge bet will depend on team news. At least one of Lampard or Drogba would have to play. However, Chelsea are usually 2/1 or shorter when at Old Trafford, and the lack of the Special One won't affect this game, even if it has thrown my league bets into turmoil!

£500 challenge
Chelsea £15 at 1.95 +0.5 (as long as at least one of Lampard or Drogba starts)

Running Total
£542.99

Saturday Sept 22

Ayr 2:50
Mutajarred 3/1
My Paris 11/2
Proponent 11/2
Kinsya 20/1

My Paris could have his conditions at last here. I'll play in the place market and throw him in the £50 challenge as well.

Ayr 3:30
Borderlescott 10/1
Rising Shadow 12/1
bentwilt Breeze 12/1
Knot in Wood 12/1
Indian Trail 12/1
Fullandby 12/1
Pearly Wey 20/1
Obe Brave 20/1
Fonthill Road 20/1

I'm all over Bentwilt Breeze ante post. My tissue pretty much ignores the draw so you;d have to adapt to add in your own thoughts. I think I'll play Rising Shadow and bentwilt in the place market.

Ayr 5:15
Lets Roll 7/2
Black Rock 7/2
Furmigadelagiusta 9/2
Opal Haze 7/1
Sphinx 11/1
Bollin Felix 11/1

Tissue matches market. Let's Roll should place given his record here.

Newbury 3:10
Monte Alto 11/2
Greek Well 11/2
Peruvian Prince 10/1
benanddonner 10/1
tears of a clown 10/1
Mr Aviator 10/1

Not a race for me.

Newbury 3:45
Desert lord 9/4
Enticing 9/4
Mutawaajid 4/1

I wouldn't discount the Channon runner but it does look a match and Enticing looks too long accordingly.

Newbury 4:55
Multidimensional 2/1
Oracle West 2/1
Olympian Odyssey 4/1

OO hurt us the other week and I've turned my back on him. So a similar match to the one above and I think the Cecil factor could work to Oracle West's benefit in the market.

Newmarket 5:05
Kings Event 11/8
Persian Express 7/1
Daawietza 7/1

The Stoute horse wouldn't have to be up to much to beat this lot. I took the 7/4 this morning, which is my only early morning bet – what a difference a year or two makes.

Football

Reading to start coming good at 11/10 and Watford to continue their march to the Prem also at 11/10

Three star Fund
My Paris £15 place at 7/4 or better.

Running Total
£557.99

Friday 21st September

A nice win yesterday.

Here's a couple of tissues for today.

Ayr 4:40
Utmost respect 11/2
Gift Horse 9/1
Sundae 9/1
Commando Scott 9/1
Northern dare 9/1
geojimali 9/1
Green park 20/1

There's an intriguing lack of pace here. Northern Dare could get a nice run of it. As I've abandoned win betting in competitive races I can't get too excited about the supposed value represented by the tissue. However, I can see myself backing Northern Dare and Commando Scott in the place market.

Newbury 2:45
Papal Bull 5/4
Bauer 9/2
Soapy Danger 7/1
Admirals cruise 9/1
Salford Mill 9/1

I've been done by Papal Bull the last twice. Looks like the hat-trick today! His penalty must be a hindrance, but more importantly the shorter trip should count against him. I think I'll lay him at odds-on.

£500 Challenge
Lay Papal Bull at Evens or shorter.

Running Total
£542.99

Thurs 20th September

The new direction my horse racing betting is going has the capacity to reduce this blog to a non event.

Usually I'd have put up three tissues for the bigger races today. However, I've consigned them all to the too difficult bin and am instead wondering on the merits of Hamish McGonagall in a class 5 2 yr old maiden auction event at Ayr. A line I never thought I'd write! (For what it's worth he looks opposable at around the Evens mark).

What I think I'll do to keep the place ticking over is alter the £500 challenge slightly to “best bet of the day”. The Challenge is pretty much back where it started anyway – due to the woes of this summer - so we may as well. Having a nap a day wouldn't be an approach I'd recommend, so I won't be dogmatic about it.

Today's £500 Challenge bet.

Rabotnicki somebody or other are playing Bolton in the UEFA cup. They're from Macedonia or somewhere. See the problem? I'm a big fan of backing things people can't pronounce let alone spell. Plus Bolton have been terrible so far this season and may well be interminal decline. I have no idea if Rabotnicki can give them a game, but I do have some ratings that suggest Bolton should be something like 2/1 instead of the 4/7 they are.

The price looks to reflect a certain bias.

Rabotnicki £15 at 5/4 or better +0.75 Asian handicap

Running Total
£523.99

Champions League

Champions League

Just in case anyone's interested, here's my long-term portfolio.

Hardly original, but the lesser Spanish teams are always a sensible long-term play and there's generous each way terms available as long as you're playing to smaller stakes.

Seville 22/1 and valencia 25/1 ew with boylesports paying a quarter 1234.

Then

Porto to qualify from group 5/6

Shakhtar Donetsk to qualify from group 5/2

Seville to win group 11/8

Van Nistelroy top goalscorer ew.

Saturday Sept 15

Doncaster 3:15
Honolulu 5/2
Lucarno 9/2
Macarthur 6/1
Mahler 10/1
Raincoat 10/1
Regal Flush 10/1
Veracity 10/1

I now have a free bet on Lucarno at 16s so that would do. I have a strong feeling that Gosden thinks Raincoat has a better chance though. Also not sure why Veracity is so weak. I think both have place chances and that may be the way to go.

Doncaster 3:50
Wake Up Maggie 2/1
Arabian Gleam 2/1
Duff 4/1

Duff did me a favour last time. He got the fractions spot on that day on a track to suit. Doncaster hardly the place to repeat it, and Pricewise probably ruined any price to compensate for the doubts despite me still having him as 'value'.

Goodwood 4:05
Galeota 7/2
Aeroplane 7/2
Shmookh 7/2
Pivotal Point 7/1

Wouldn't take much for me to want to get involved in backing Shmookh.

I'll also try and bust my way out of trouble with a treble from my 'virtual stable' which admittedly has had a bad virus all year! Raincoat, Duff and Shmookh.

Football

Everton and Portsmouth are typically underestimated against the big guns lunchtime – I'll get with both at better than 11/10 +0.5 on the Asians.

And Cardiff remained overhyped. Which leads us to Holloway's well-organised Plymouth at 13/10 or better.

Racing 14th Sept

Doncaster 2:05
Dansant 4/1
Whispering Death 6/1
Golden Quest 7/1

Dodge-pot race. Dansant the only solid one. Nothing to get excited about. No bet.

Doncaster 2:40
Septimus 5/4
Allegretto 4/1
Geordieland 6/1
Balkan Knight 11/1
Distinction 11/1

You couldn't say many of these would like fast ground. The prices look right now – Septimus could go either way in the market. Watching brief.

Struggling to find any bets at the moment, let alone £500 challenge ones. A good thing I think.

Racing - 13th Sept

Sandown 3:25
Bygone Days 7/4
Thousand Words 3/1
Racer Forever 7/1
Assertive11/1

An appealing race. A lot of disappointing types. Even of the short-listed Assertive's winless record at 7f continues to stack up, and Racer Forever is a dog. The feeling is that Bygone Days proved his stamina for 7f at Goodwood, but I wasn't totally convinced. Thousand Words has been in and out but does look a backable price against him. Need to wait to see if Vanderlin is withdrawn though.

At Doncaster I can't find anything to excite me with my new “anti competitive racing” head on.

Racing and Football 11 Sept

Two Doncaster races to look at but I think I'll probably get more involved in the two maidens at Haydock!

Doncaster 4:20
Green Manalishi 9/2
Hogmaneigh 9/2
Peace Offering 7/1
Drayton 7/1

There's a pace angle to this race with 5 trailblazers potentially setting it up for the closers. After last week I'll wait on the ground. If as fast as suggested Green Manalishi is best placed to profit, but if overwatered Hogmaneigh would come into the picture.

Doncaster 4:55
Red Gala 9/4
Fairmile 5/1
heaven Knows 5/1
benanddonner 9/1
All The Good 11/1
Star of Light 11/1
Chantaco 16/1
Ladies Best 16/1

You're welcome to the tissue – the race isn't for me – though benandonner ran better than placing last time out.

Football.

Is that an over-reaction on England or what? Israel were pitiful in the middle of the park, and the fullbacks had free license. I can't see Russia allowing that. I'll lay England.

Also Iceland (draw no bet) v N Ireland.

Monday 10 th Sept

How bad is it? I was offered the possibility of some work over the weekend. I didn't turn it down flat. I didn't feel able to.

The US Open tennis was good for me personally, and generally the “books” I run through tournaments are providing me succour when all “match” bets are failing miserably. However, the pverty of my sitiation can be seen by the fact the £500 challenge is back to where it started, which is hopeless considering we were up over £750 just a while ago.

With regards the flat season, the racing fund is down to its lowest mark (not counting dividends) for four seasons. Group/Listed races are showing a profit this season, but everything else is a disaster. I'm ready to turn my back on competitive races entirely – something I've been edging towards for a while.

This morning I backed Bankable at Newcastle, in a race I would never have comtemplated previously. The 9/4 I took seems to have mutated into 6/4 this morning which is just the encouragement I need regardless of end result. It could be a strange couple of months prior to the jumps season...

Racing and football 8 sept and £500 challenge

Not quite the start to the weekend I was hoping for with France blowing it and Millwall losing tamely. Lucky I was out enjoying myself instead of home wondering how long I'm going to continue being hopeless at this game!

Leopardstown 2:40
Red Evie 9/4
Arch Swing 9/4
Echelon 3/1

Pretty tight. Not sure about the fitness of Spencer but Red Evie takes some riding. Potentially a problem not factored in.

Leopardstown 3:50
Dylan Thomas 4/6
Finsceal Beo 11/2
Red Rocks 9/1

Corals have this as a penalty-kick for Dylan, and looking at his course form it's not hard to agree. I keep looking at Finsceal Beo though, 8/1 looks too big to me should she be back to her best, and I like the fact she goes here rather than in the race above.

Haydock 2:35
Olympian Oddyssey 6/4
Winged Cupid 4/1
Caldra 11/2

All about the Olympian Odyssey for me. He's well clear on ability/figures etc, but I think people will try to get after him – not least because of that 1-12 strike-rate. I think that fear is already factored into my prices to be honest, so I'll go for a thump, both at the 15/8 currently available, and again if he drifts further.

Haydock 3:10
Sakhees Secret 5/4
Asset 9/1
Marchand Dor 9/1
Hellvellyn 9/1
Amadeus Wolf 16/1
Balthazaars Gift 16/1
Red Clubs 16/1
Per Incanto 16/1

I can see why people may want to oppose a poorly drawn Sakhees Secret at the price, but I just can't get excited about any of the opposition. I guess there's a chance Sakhee's could drift beyond 6/4 when I'd get interested. Watching brief.

Kempton 2:50
Imperial Star 3/1
Shahin 4/1
Al Tharib 4/1
Lion Sands 9/2

Al Tharib and Shahin could get hooked up in a speed duel here if not careful. Imperial Star weak (possibly because of Havlin) but back on the course where he looked like he was going to be half useful, and would be the one to benefit from a good pace.

£500 Challenge
Olympian Odyssey £15 at 15/8 or better

also

Israel +1.5 against England £15 at Evens.
(Yes, I can see England winning, but only just and the 1/3 win odds should probably be closer to 4/6!)

Running Total (a few bets in-running)
£535.99

Rugby and Hells Kitchen (!)

RUGBY
Instead of taking those All Blacks odds I've decided to play the Evens on Dan Carter to be top tryscorer.

The only threats I can see to this are (a) injury - which would have an adverse effect on the All Blacks anyway, and (b) resting him through all the very easy games. Whether those threats fully account for the price...


REALITY TV
Over at Hells Kitchen I'm scratching my head as to why Brian is 4/1. His popularity is unquestioned as the most popular BB winner ever, and in just a two week low-key programme he's very hard to keep out of the top 2.

He could be beaten by someone one a 'journey' who turns out to be a good cook. But that's about all.

It's probably not a £500 challenge bet, but I wouldn't put you off.

£500 challenge
Dan Carter £15 topscorer at Evens

Running Total
£535.99

Fri 7th Sept - racing and football

Newbury 2:55
Gulf Express 3/1
King Charles 4/1
Warm Embraces 11/2
Noticeable 9/1

The Stoute horse looks too short to me, given he's still a turf maiden. King Charles ran really well penultimate start at Newmarket and if you forgive him the going last time can be competitive despite topweight. Warm Embraces is notably weak this morning, possibly helped in part by Elsworth's poor form the last few weeks. I'll take some of the early 8s about him and then wait.

Newbury 3:30
Genki 2/1
Beaver Patrol 9/2
Barney McGrew 8/1
Greenslades 11/1

The bookies seem happy to field against the front two, though they look very solid to me. 50% the two looks right, and if one or both drifts too much I'll play.

Haydock 3:45
Malcheek 3/1
High Curragh 5/1
Ajigolo 6/1

Not much depth to this and Malcheek looks sold legititmate favourite. Could drift to a backable price as well (7/2+)

Millwall are attractively priced tonight for their trip to Brighton. Given they haven't scored away from home this season though, I think the Asians will be the way to go.

Racing Thursday 6 Sept

Salisbury 3:40
Medley 4/1
Our faye 4/1
Miss Lucifer 4/1
Perfect Star 7/1
Gaelic princess 7/1

This looks a hot little fillies' race and the 3 year olds are nice improving sorts, so I'm surprised that Corals are ducking Gaelic Princess. Still, they were spot on about Echo of Light yesterday and I won't rush to oppose them.

Salisbury 4:40
Tranquil Tiger 3/1
Munsef 4/1
Sunley Peace 4/1
Bulwark 9/2
Land N Stars 9/2

Tranquil Tiger was on the Leger radar prior to flopping in the Ebor. I think I'd rather forgive him, and keep Sunley Peace onside, than get involved with the three old stagers – although Hills getting a soft lead on Musef is tempting despite the penalty. The bookies clearly haven't got a clue here, and frankly neither have I. Watching brief!

5th Sept - racing, and £500 challenge rugby

A nice winner yesterday on the late drifting Lovelace.

York 3:35
Echo of Light 7/4
Royal Oath 3/1
Formal Decree 11/2
Mullins Bay 10/1

Firstly let's take Royal Oath at 4/1. The tissue tries to take account of Echo of Light's roguery, whilst accepting he's got a great strike rate and won this last year. I think there's a chance people may try to take him on this afternoon – we'll see. I'd be happy to back the two of them if the prices come right.

Rugby World Cup

A while ago I was going to just dive in and take the All Blacks. That seems to have been before a certain Mr Findlay completely messed up the books. His alleged millions have knackered that as a value option. I think they'll drift for the next few days – better than 4/6 and I think they are still a decent bet.

Instead or until, let's go with the home side – who have the usual in-built home-side advantages – each way, with a view to stealing the inflated place odds, and potentially dumping the win odds late on (we won't account for that in the challenge).

£500 Challenge
France to win World Cup
£7.50 ew at 7/1

Running Total
£535.99

Tues 4th Sept - Racing

Spent yesterday tweaking my strategy. Not something I like to do mid-season, mainly because the only reason I would is that I'm stuck in the deep stuff! One upshot of my tweaks will almost certainly be fewer “early bird” bets. I'll continue to put my tissues up for the bigger races though.

Goodwood 3:45
Dunelight 3/1
Lovelace 3/1
Assertive 9/1
Racer Forever 9/1

Some very disappointing horses in this race. Even of the four short-listed Assertive has no form in group races, nor over 7f; and Racer Forever looked to dog it last time. So 50% the top two looks fair. Dunelight is entirely dependant on pace though. Lovelace becomes the one people point to almost by default – I couldn't honestly say the price is fair value. I'll wait to see which way the markets go. Any over-reactions and I'll oppose the momentum.

Sat Sept 1 - racing and £500 challenge

Still in shock that the twins didn't win Big Brother! The £500 Challenge has had a torrid couple of months. I wouldn't blame anyone for losing the faith. I virtually have!

Terrible racing today. I'll put up a couple.

Chester 2:50
Bauer 2/1
Sagredo 7/2
Dansili Dancer 9/1
Lundys Lane 9/1
John Terry 16/1
Galient 20/1

Interesting race. Galient needs to rediscover form, John Terry is a dodgepot, and Lundys and Dansili supposedly proved their stamina in a race run at a crawl. The other two are improvers and I'm struggling to see how the prices should be so different. I think the notion that Bauer would have been competitive in the Ebor may be forcing him into too short a price. I'll play Sagredo at 6/1 which looks huge and offers place value as well.

Chester 3:25
Giganticus 4/1
Laa Rayb 6/1
Robema 6/1
H Harrison 7/1
Dhaluar dhar 12/1
Fremen 12/1
beauchamp Viceroy 16/1

With New Seeker out there is a chance that H Harrison will get free on the lead for the second day running. Pricewise has ruined the price but 10/1 still looks fair. Whether the jockey can get the fractions right, or whether he will get bustled up early remains to be seen. I think I'll be looking to get out in-running.

£500 Challenge
£7.50 ew Sagredo at 6/1

Running Total
£515.74
(Blackburn not accounted)