Monthly £500 Challenge Update
A decent month (at last!), and the challenge now getting back to where it should be. I was very taken by how it stayed in profit even during my horrible summer, and it would be nice to get the chance to see if it can also outperform my normal operations whe things go well.
Current standing.
£712.49
Football
20 bets. 10 wins 148% returns
Horse racing
64 bets. 28 wins 120% returns
All bets
94 bets 40 wins 116% returns.
That's a week of losers for the challenge. Pleased to see Double Intruder got a non-trier's ban yesterday – talking through my pocket no doubt but I thought it was very smelly personally.
Newbury. I'd be inclined to row in with Nicholls' horses at one of his favourite meetings if they hadn't become so overbet over the last year or so. Plus I'm happy to take Silverburn on, so let's start there.
2:35
Three potentially good horses get their first chase starts in a tough little heat. Hobbs Hill has jumped really well so far, and I think that's going to hold him in good stead here. Granted he has a penalty to overcome but this race historically has massively favoured those with experience, and I'll always take what a horse has already achieved over what trainers say their horses may achieve.
£500 Challenge
Hobbs Hill £15 win at 4/1
A very testing day yesterday.
The challenge has now had six losing bets in a row, and that hurts. However that follows on from 6 successful bets in a row, and we are well up if judged on all 12 bets. Doesn't feel like it right now though!
I was going to suggest Aimigayle to place today for the challenge but Corals seem to think that's a non runner.
So, scratching about for something to do, I'll have to settle for a play on Victor Dartnell's runners at Uttoxeter. His horses are running well and his strike rate and profit at the course are more than eye-catching. I've landed some nice touches in the past with this seemingly mug-like practice. Nicholls at Wincanton and Twiston Davies at Perth spring to mind. The bookies are on alert though, judged by how hard it's been to get the multiples on, so good luck with the prices.
£500 Challenge
Uttoxeter 1:00 Double Intruder 10/1+
Uttoxeter 3:10 Sporting Rebel 13/2+
Uttoxeter 3:40 Young Dancer 10/3+
3 x £2.50 singles
3 x £2 doubles
1 x £1.50 treble
(Porto actually available at 6/4 on the Asian recommendation from yesterday).
Lingfield quite attractive today, and looks a day for place betting in uncompetitive races. Four I'm potentially interested in are Mem O'Rees, Ashwell Lad, My World and Pheidas at Wetherby. Choosing one for the challenge isn't that easy but my antipathy towards the favourite in the 1:00 at Lingfield leads me to:
£500 Challenge
1:00 Lingfield £3 win Mem O'Rees at 6/1+ and £12 place at 4/5+.
The only horse I was interested in today is a non runner, so a watching brief at Kempton and a dead day.
Let's turn to football then for a challenge bet. I can't find anything domestic or champions league tonight. So we're left with tomorrow's game between Liverpool and Porto. This looks priced on Liverpool's need for a result, and their drubbing of Besiktas. In other words the price is ridiculous, particularly with Porto in such good form, and probably wanting to top the group. Not to mention Benitez steadily losing power. (Outside bet for England manager anyone?).
I'd have Liverpool at more like Evens. That makes Porto mighty attractive in the Asians (roughly 11/8 at +0.75). That's not only 11/8 for an Evens money bet, but also rescues half our stake if they're beaten by the odd goal.
£500 Challenge
Porto +0.75 £15 at 11/8ish
Ho hum – horses scattered all over Aintree yesterday! I only spotted the Cedrus Libani match after rushing to put up the Bechers Chase, but of course with the benefit of hindsight that would have made a much better challenge bet!
And then somehow Blackburn failed to finish off a woeful Fulham. I just don't get chairmen. (Billy Davies sacked this morning for what? Achieving an impossible promotion?)
At Fulham Coleman, who was something of a club hero, was sacked after years of having to sell the best players – Davis, Saha, Finnan, van Der Saar, Malbranque. Then suddenly his replacement is given 20 million which he promptly squanders on a bunch of Northern Ireland journeymen.
Racing not good today. I was going to suggest Star Shot at Ludlow but there has to be a doubt about him lasting home, even there.
We'll play the other novice chase instead. Ayr 1.40. Barryvogue came up against a very decent novice in Ice Tea last time, and some judges also questioned the ride on Barryvogue. He seems to be in a match here. The price isn't one to get excited about, and we're down our last 3 bets. It's all I can find today though.
£500 Challenge
Ayr 1:40 Barryvogue £15 win at 5/4+
I'd best get this up quickly as Pricewise seems to have copied me! I took four horses mid-week for the Bechers Chase , one of my favourite races, and have topped up this morning. They may as well go into the challenge.
£500 Challenge
£5 win Leading Man 8/1
£4 win Silver Jack 16/1+
£3 win Irish Raptor 12/1+
£3 win King Killone 14/1+
I'll also suggest repeating the Portsmouth bet of yesterday and go after Blackburn to beat my beloved Fuham at around 11/8. The former remain under-rated and Fulham are pooh. Save a small percentage of your bet for Fulham to be leading halftime and then to lose (at around 30/1!).
I'll skip the Kauto Star puzzle today (complicated further by heavy rain in the area apparently). I'm one of those very concerned about the laziness at Aintree, but can't find an obvious horse to beat him, and my midweek each way tickle on Turpin Green, whilst having the plus of three places, has the minus of looking a rubbish bet!
Ascot 1:20
I have New Little Bric at 2/1 and Flying Enterprise at 4/1. FE did us a big favour last year, so is something of a stable horse for me, whilst New Little Bric looked like he was going to be special last year, but is somewhat stymied by a preference for right handed tracks. This should suit.
Ascot 1:50
I just can't get excited about the front four here. Afsoun is favourite simply because of doubts about the next three – a declining Hardy Eustace; a 'gone' Detroit City, and a plodding Wichita Lineman for whom this is a prep. Step forward Kings Quay who did us a favour at Wincanton. OK, so this trip doesn't look the thing for him, and he's got loads to find. That's in the price. Hopefully he'll be ridden for a place, which is where I'll be focusing my energy at 5/2 or better.
Ascot 2:20
Pablo looks a terrible price, especially given all the front runners here. If it's a right old tear-up expect Hasty Prince to come through late for a place at least. If common sense prevails I'd rather side with an improving Bishop's Bridge and Charlton Kings than anything else.
Football.
Portsmouth remain under-rated and Birmingham remain pants. They haven't beaten a decent side all year, and losing Bruce may not be much of a loss long-term, but can hardly help today. 7/4 for the away win looks very fair.
£500 Challenge
New Little Bric £10 at 9/4
Flying Enterprise £5 at 5/1
Ascot today. Not falling over with excitement though. Think another placepot may be in order.
However, for many years now I've followed Fanshawe's jumps runners blind and see no reason to stop today. The race in which Song of Songs finished 2nd to Osana could hardly have worked out better and despite what looks like a short price in a competitve race, I'll play.
£500 Challenge
2:00 Ascot
Song of Songs £15 at 11/8+ (6/4 available)
Off for a quick meeting in London today, but wanted to throw one up for the challenge, with it rolling along nicely. Hope some of you took the insurance out on Croatia last night!
A long time ago I put a bet up on here for MacLaren to be sacked before the end of the year at 8/1. I'm expecting to be in a position to collect that tonight, but with the FA......
12:50 Hereford
Driving Miss Susie £15 place at 1.4+
The challenge bet is a bit of a no-brainer today.
I'd price England at Evens to win tonight were it a normal qualifier. It isn't easy working how much to tweak that to account for Croatia having nothing at stake. However, I am sure the prices are hopelessly skewed to home bias as usual.
Better still, there's no real downside to this bet as an England fan.
£500 Challenge
Croatia £2.50 win at 8/1
Croatia £12.50 at +0.5 at 5/4
Another humdrum day.
Scratching around for a challenge bet.
Fakenham 2:00
Kanokop – should have little trouble placing. The only caveat is the presence of a Barney Curley runner and for all his charitable work he still seems to me to be a charmless, incoherent, cheating bag of shite, and someone with no place in racing if it really wants to survive as a sport far into this century. No doubt he'll prevent us from sticking over the £700 mark!
£500 challenge
Kanokop £15 place at 1.35+
Typical Monday today – time for a break.
However, the challenge is thriving of late so let's keep the pressure on and play the 3:30 Wolverhampton
Perlachy can't win but is fairly consistent. The two faves have tricky draws to overcome which should help ours plod into a place.
£500 Challenge
Perlachy £15 place at Evens+I hope some of you joined me on Israel! Remember that result next time the conspiracy theorists get going. Sir Rembrandt also lightened up a pretty grey day yesterday.
Today looks a day for caution. Rain on what looked to be slightly over-watered ground is a recipe for chaos. Throw in a wheelbarrow full of horses making their seasonal debuts and it's not a day for backing short ones.
In such circumstances, and when you want to watch but don't trust yourself not to have twitchy fingers, I'd suggest a decent sized placepot works as the best form of defensive betting.
I will put up a bet for the challenge, but it's not one I'll be pressing up on!
1:10 Cheltenham
Dev ran a cracker last time, chasing a furious pace and still staying on for a very creditable third. The signs are that he's improving and has a lot of valuable experience against this lot. On the other hand, he's not classy like some of these, the course isn't ideal, and the ground may not help. Still, he's 33/1 in an 8 runner field so we shouldn't be too picky! Either play ew or play betfair and load the place side of the bet, with the added insurance against non runners.
£500 Challenge
Dev £5 win at 30/1+ and £10 place at 5/1+
As good a day as yesterday would be nice.
Cheltenham 1:25
We opposed Willyandwoody on his debut and he could hardly have been more impressive. Findlay looks to have found another top-notch horse and the only worry is that he doesn't appear to be smashing into it at the moment. 7/4 looks long to me.
Cheltenham 2:00
I was going to skip this but I just can't let Falcon's Fire price go. He seemed to beat Franchoek fair and square and 5/1 seems ridiculous in the circumstances (or Franchoek's price does).
Cheltenham 2:35
Granit Jack 3/1
Crozan 11/1
Lantartique 11/1
Idole First 11/1
Private Be 11/1
Three Mirrors 12/1
Knowhere 12/1
Vodka Bleu 16/1
Bob Hall 16/1
Ponmeoath 16/1
Copsale Lad 16/1
My tissue certainly reflects my ante post book, so probably my pocket talking. My portfolio was damaged by Don't Push It being withdrawn and then by Granit jack scraping in, so I'm not particularly hopeful. Pleased to see Pricewise pick Three Mirrors though as I do have him onside at 80/1.
3:40 Cheltenham
D'Argent could repeat his first time up win last year. Sir Rembrandt appeals if freshened up for the move, as one to plug on for a place as he has done in a couple of Gold Cups. I'll do an each way double him and Falcons Fire and an ew treble chucking in Three Mirrors!
£500 Challenge
WillyandWoody £15 win at 7/4
Falcons Fire £7.50 ew at 5/1
This Friday meeting always looks disappointing. Cheltenham are such greedy buggers. Killing their geese in my opinion.
Still there must be some juice somewhere. Here's a couple of tissues.
1:20
Ofarel Dairy 7/4
Fundamentalist 4/1
Glasker Mill 5/1
Ballyfoy 6/1
Boychuk 6/1
These graduation chases are funny little things – chances for horses that have fallen to pieces to pull themselves together. On the whole they are more useful for having form lines to ignore in future than anything else. Nicholls seems to use them best.
Ofarel D'airey looks solid here. Glasker Mill coule be the challenger IF you are prepared to be very forgiving. He did look a decent horse at the start of last year.
Cheltenham 3:45
Imperial Commander 4/6
Over The Creek 6/1
Classic Croco 7/1
Nation State 9/1
I can't help but feel today would be a day to go against Imperial Commander. If Twiston-Davies form is about to downturn as usual he could be vulnerable. However, given I dislike the opposition it's not easy.
£500 Challenge
Ofarel Dairey £10 at 2/1+
Glasker Mill £5 at 6/1+
Imperial Commander £10 at 4/6
Classic Croco £5 at 12/1
Thanks for the messages guys. Mick Fitz is far from my favourite also, Jonah. Did nothing wrong yesterday though to be fair. And Majid passed on news of Paddy Power's concession for Cheltenham (money back on fallers) which is certainly worth bearing in mind.
No obvious bets on the horses today. Watching brief – the Irish racing could be informative.
I'll be pricing up the weekend's football for the rest of the day, but one price is shouting at me and we may as well do that as our daily bet.
I'd price Israel at something like 9/4 for the Russia match. They are 7/1. That's a disparity on a Nevison-like scale! I'll ignore notions that the score has already been decided on, and get stuck in. There's almost too many options. The Asians at +0.75 offer an amazing avenue and I expect some of my bet will be there, but let's be braver for the challenge. They are as 'low' as 5/1 in the outright market in places and you can get that in the 'draw no bet' market.
£500 Challenge
£15 Israel – 'draw no bet' at 5/1
Today's racing is pretty terrible.
2:00 Lingfield
Finbar's Pi is of interest here. Powell's horses are flying. The King horse looks solid, but Henrietta Knight's hurdler looks typically opposable and the only other horse of note is an unraced from Lavelle's stable which aims for handicappers. That makes evens in the place market look very fair.
£500 Challenge
Finbar's Pi £15 place at EvensSome races to watch at Kempton but no obvious bets. Exeter has a couple of poor novice chases.
In one, Petit Lord looks solid against a horse I really don't like.
In the other, Ouninpohja asks the questions and there could be an in-running play against him and possibly in favour of Pseudonym who lacked nothing in resolution last time.
Nothing to get excited about. I've been cursing my decision to really try to find a bet for the challenge every day after my last two football bets, but I'll stick with it.
£500 Challenge
2:30 Exeter – Petit Lord £15 at 4/6
Portsmouth hit post and bar but left the money behind. My fault. I often cover 0-0 in such bets, or could have gone draw no bet.
Some decent racing at Carlisle today. Can't see an obvious bet though.
So, at the risk of plunging the challenge below £600 again, I'll stick with the Premiership for today's bet.
Reading played the top four 11 times last season and only lost by 2 goals or more twice. They are on similar course this season and tighter at home than general impressions would have it. Arsenal away this year haven't been ripping teams apart. Arsenal did thrash Reading here last year but at the prices I'll take Reading to avoid a two goal defeat and maybe even get something out of the game.
I'll play, but will only press up into a challenge if Bikey isn't playing – he's hopeless!
£500 Challenge
£15 Reading +1/ +1.5 at 1.8+
That was the best week I've had in a while, since Cheltenham maybe.
No racing worth bothering with today. A nice walk in the rain and sit down with the football later.
My ratings have Portsmouth as Evens chances so I can't say this is a value bet in any way, but I'm still going to take them to beat Man City this afternoon. It's a simple prejudice that perhaps isn't fully reflected in my more objective ratings, but I have Man City as being in a false position at the moment.
Plus I'm biased in favour of Portsmouth because they have Sean Davis playing as well as he used to for Fulham. Having watched him play for us in every division, and having seen Tigana turn him from a gung-ho tackler into an intelligent holding midfielder, I assumed he'd do great for Spurs and reach the fringes of the England team. It says a lot about the hopeless mis-management at Spurs that he never played well there, and says a lot for 'Arry that he recognised his talent and has just allowed him to play where he is best.
£500 Challenge
Portsmouth £15 beat Man City Evens+A good week so far. My betting week used to build up slowly to a make or break Saturday. Since the change in approach Saturday has become a day for caution. Frankly I'm finding this a difficult adjustment to make. However, I think today I've managed to avoid most of the obvious competitive handicaps, (so far at least).
The horses that interest me most today as betting propositions are:
1:05 Kelso
Calculaite. 3/1+
This one cost us last time out when he ran far too free. He jumped very well though and should come on for that. There's little depth to the race and more importantly I don't like the favourite much, He travels well, but I remain unconvinced and think that 2m on quick ground could hardly suit less.
2:20 Winc
Joe Lively. 6/4+
His beating of Iced Tea (who looks a good horse) looks rock solid. His price should be held above 6/4 due to the Nicholls effect.
2:25 Sandown
Bubble Boy 6/1+
More speculative. Particularly on recent form. However, Powell's horses have taken off this week. Better still, Bubble Boy should get a soft lead and that's a very good thing indeed in small field Sandown chases. I'm hoping there'll be the potential to trade out in-running.
2:50 Winc
Kings Quay 4/1+
Quinn knows what it takes to win this and Kings Quay should have the speed and strength to do for a bunch of last year's juveniles.
I won a tasty five figure sum at this Wincanton fixture last year. Parsons Legacy at big odds did the most damage. I have nothing like that this time, but here's hoping!
£500 Challenge
Calculaite £15 win at 3/1+
Wolves was good for us last night. And Hayley Turner continues to impress. I do like jockeys who keep it simple.
Another grim day today. I'll keep an eye on the jockey's championship. I think plenty of their mounts are going to start artificially short – Double Banded springs to mind.
In the 8:55 at Wolves they ride the two faves and if the game's still afoot I can see these two shortening up and everything else drifting. That being so I'm keen on backing a horse to place in that race at inflated odds. Two to choose from. The Balding horse looks far from straightforward and is being backed this morning. That leaves Vivacita. You need to forgive her last run, but that done, with stable in good form, and Catlin to give her an uncomplicated ride, she'll do for today's press up.
£500 Challenge
£15 Vivacita to place at 6/4 (hopefully bigger).
I've just read Dave Nevison's book. It zips along. In fact I read it in one sitting. Then again, I did the same with Frank Worthington's “One Hump or Two?”. I enjoyed it thoroughly but think it may have raised more questions for me than answers.
Some of the inconsistencies actually kept me awake last night, which I guess puts me in the anorak class as opposed to the type who spends his evenings chasing 'ropey old tote bird' types around hotel bars!
I'm interested how he can be banned from every spread betting company, yet can get £10000 antepost on both Detroit City and Kauto Star. I'm especially intrigued by the latter as I remember well being knocked back to £50 personally, and I only wanted a ton on!
I'm also taken by his tissue compiling skills. He has a forecast 5/2 fave in at 10/1 on his tissue on one page. and throughout the discrepancies between his prices and the bookies are similarly large.
When that happens to me my first thought is that it's me who has made a mistake, and most times that's the right thought!
Still, there's always something to take from these books and I'm grateful to Dave, not just for entertaining me, but for reminding me of the old adage “Scared money is dead money”. Reading his gung-ho approach to betting and staking I was left thinking that the title of the book was completely wrong. It should have been called “A Bloody Good Loser”. By which I mean, it seems he has a real edge in how he copes with losing money. My guess is his days as an FX trader innured him against fear of big numbers. Also, he leaves someone more detail-conscious to manage the books. This means, unlike me, he isn't obsessed by his current fund price, current losing streak and lack of liquidity. He seems to be able to drop telephone numbers daily and still get back in the saddle and head straight for the guns. This adage joins my “post-it note wall”.
Today's racing is terrible. Slipperytoad will be glad to hear that the sandpit actually looks more inviting than both jumps meetings!
Wolves 8:50
Chia doesn't win. She's a very consistent filly though, and would be a good bet for a place at evens.
£500 Challenge
8:50 Wolves
£15 Chia to place at Evens
Nice one with Leeds yesterday.
Today I was hoping the Racing Post tissue price would be available about Big Rob! He's now 9/4 (and under on betfair). His form makes you pause before considering that price, but he looked the winner of this race two years ago before falling, and won it cosily last year, before going off the rails thereafter. This year he's off less weight and gets weight from all his rivals. More importantly, all 4 of his rivals are front runners and this really should fall in his lap.
I'm not sure I'll press up myself, but on a quiet day he may as well make the daily challenge bet.
2:40 Huntingdon
£15 win Big Rob 9/4
Two decent small field jumps races at Exeter today.
2:50
An interesting shape. People thinking Fair Along and Pablo Du Charmil could get into a duel, but you'd hope the jockeys wouldn't be that stupid. I hope not because I really don't like the three challengers. Saintsaire and Royal Shakespeare have just never convinced me they are chasers, and Hasty Prince needs 2m4f or an end to end gallop. I can see Fair Along drifting to a backable price (say 6/4).
3:20
In a way even more intersting, because based on his debut Moon Over Miami didn't look like he'd make it as a chaser, and particularly not right handed. I like the fact Space Cowboy takes him on again, but he didn't look much either. Templer looks solid. Prices will decide the strategy but essentially it's to be against MoM.
Football.
Leeds get a quick chance to bounce back from the weekend defeat. I have them at 4/6 at the longest to beat a woeful Bournemouth side. They're around 1.9 at the moment. That has to be too long.
£500 Challenge
£15 Leeds win at 1.9
Ouninpohja went from 1.9 to 1.5 for the place on Saturday, so I guess Harry lost more than us! Lack of pace was the problem and I'm not sure I even looked at that in such a big field 2m handicap.
Still, Betfair comes into its own in 8 runner races when there's a withdrawal so Monkerhostin's 3rd was welcome, and Blackburn hanging on left the challenge up for the weekend. Sadly my own betting didn't fare so well. As usual.
Onwards.
There's a couple of fairly solid place horses for small stables in novice hurdles today. I'll be backing them both at better than 4/6. The favourites should keep the prices competitive, so let's play an old fashioned game and see if the bookies will play.
£500 challenge
£7.50 ew double (at around 4/1 each)
Stagehand 1:10 Warwick
Hansomelle 1:30 Plumpton
I didn't fully appreciate just how much warmer London is to the Midlands until I moved up here. On Thursday/Friday I was walking around town in t-shirt – surrounded by people all wrapped up. All those northern football fans with their tops off at Craven Cottage over the years is beginning to make some sense!
The Royal Parks were looking great in their autumn plumage by the way – anyone close to town should get there quickish.
Busy day today, with some early season trepidation.
Ascot 1:40
He may be a dog, but Ouninpohja places as regular as you like. There's a few ways to play this, and if you've got accounts that will let you place each way bets you could do worse than take the 4/1 and lay off the win portion for an evens place bet. Or , if braver, lay-off the win bet in-running. He's close to 10/11 in the place only market and that may be simplest of all. I'll probably combine all three approaches.
Ascot 2:10
Two horses suited by likely conditions at nice prices are Full House and Briery Fox. I haven't decided how to play them at the moment.
Wetherby 3:30
You can have doubts about all of these. State of Play would be the most legitimate contender. One way in could be the pace angle because there's every chance of this being a tear-up, especially if Ollie Magern runs with the choke out again. I think that could give Monkerhostin a great chance of plugging on for a place. He looked to have gone at the game last year – over-raced the season before – but fresh may be the best time to catch him, and his form in the King George and Gold Cup wasn't too shabby.
Football
Can't find a way in to the big match, although Arsenal may still be vulnerable at set pieces, so, despite having described this type of bet at dinner last night as a “mug punters, mug punter bet”, I'll have a very small go on Vidic ew as first goalscorer!
My long-term opposition to Liverpool continues and I think Blackburn are still being underrated. I'm happy to take them at 4/6 on the Asians to win or draw.
I'd throw Leeds, Watford and Stoke into the mix and Oldham at 3/1 or better isn't to be sniffed at.
£500 Challenge
Ascot 1:40
Ouininphja - £15 place at 4/5+
Wetherby 3:30
Monkerhostin - £15 place at 6/4+
Blackburn £15 +0.5 4/6+
