I've been through the Wincanton card and struggled to find anything. The Novice chase could be a real shocker.
The one bet I could find was Kiltimoney in a dreadful race. Despite jumping worries this is the only solid horse in the race and I'd say evens to place is fair.
£500 Challenge
Kiltimoney £4 win at 11/2 guaranteed
Kiltimoney £16 place at 5/4 or better
I was expecting to find a football bet this afternoon, but haven't been able to.
Chelsea look right at 1/3, Spurs at 4/6 and MK Dons at 10/11. You would have thought I'd be against Liverpool and all over Everton based on the rest of the year's bets and I did price Liverpool at only evens. However, the Tim Cahill effect has to move that price. I read this morning that with him this season Everton average 2.2 points per game, without 1.3 points per game. I'm not at all surprised by that – I think he's one of the best box to box players I've seen.
So, all that's left is the novice chase at Kempton. The challenge avoided Nevada Royale in the week and let's hope this 'once thought of as a sun alliance type' doesn't run similarly. His opponents have been pretty woeful so far, and he has tons in hand on ability. Admittedly it is worrying that Karanja managed to beat him, but I remember thinking that was a pretty decent race at the time and that Leading Attraction was the one to take from the race. 2/1on no more than fair
£500 Challenge
Leading Attraction £20 win at 1.5 or better
Did well to avoid Nevada Royale for the challenge, just as well you can't see my in-running book on the race though!
We already have Stockport for today. Let's add a racing portfolio to it. It's another difficult day so I think I'd rather spread the money around.
Kemp 3:45
Diamond Tycoon 2/1
Kandidate 9/4
Great Hawk 9/2
Illustrious Blue 10/1
Diamond Tycoon can be priced at 2s on form, but you still have to take a leap to back him today. Great Hawk takes some riding and I made a note last year to only consider backing him with Ryan Moore up. Kandidate on the other hand has rock solid course form and the trainer has also started well, probably the most important criteria in the first month of the flat.
Newbury 2:20
Elvis Returns 5/1
De Blanc 7/1
Yardbird 8/1
Keenans Future 10/1
Not many in form here. Of those who are Keenans Future and yardbird keep being punished, and Elvis needs a right old test. De Blanc gets a tentative vote.
Newbury 5:05
William Bonney 9/4
Coach Lane 4/1
Daryal 4/1
Another disappointing race. William Bonney's form behind Kruguyrova points him up as an obvious selection.
UAE World Cup
I was looking at an each way angle into this race and stumbled across Andre Fabre's Nad AL Sheba record. He doesn't bother sending them there unless they're going to run well. Kocab has no obvious chance on form of winning, but he does have a solid chance of a place if he can improve on dirt. His last run was obviously the encouragement Fabre needed.
£500 Challenge
£2.50 win De Blanc 10/1 or better
£2.50 win Kandidate 3/1 or better
£2.50 win William Bonney 9/4 or better
£1.25 ew Kocab at 40/1 (50/1 available with VC - but they only let me have £6!)
£1.25 ew Kocab w/out Curlin at 16/1
3 x £1 win doubles the top three
3 x 50p ew doubles Kocab with the other three
£1 treble the top three
25pew accumulator
Very poor run from Pur De Sivola yesterday. It's put me off Newbury today.
That said, my eye was drawn to Nevada Royale this morning. My main bet for the Sun Alliance this year and an expensive loser for me first time out. I'm tempted to try to recover my losses in one hit, but am resisting at the moment!
Instead I'll put up tomorrow's football bet.
Stockport again. This time against Chester who we've opposed successfully of late as well. Chester are bottom of my ratings but continue to be priced as though they aren't the worst side in the football leagues. Stockport on the other hand have the best second half of season form in the division. We can keep half the bet in case of a draw at the same price as I have them to win. If we keep 0-0 on-side as well we look to have a cracking little bet.
£500 Challenge – tomorrow
Stockport £23.50 at 4/5 -0.25 asian handicap beat Chester
0-0 draw £1.50 at 10/1
Hopeless yesterday, and in a rush today – heading off for the delights of the Severn Railway with puppy and nephew in tow – the wonders of Spring!
Not exactly missing much either. I wasn't expecting to have a bet, but hadn't seen the novice chase at Exeter. Pur De Sivola is a horse we've been on the right and wrong sides of within the daily challenge. He's a decent animal, just shy of Arkle class, and this should suit. I would have preferred Choc Thornton on board, and he does hit a flat spot, and he did fall last time, so I could see him being opposed.
Particularly as his main challenge is trained by Hobbs, who farms novice races here in general and this race in particular. However, Oceanos looks a class below and on ratings looks significantly better left handed than right. That said, the overall profile and a RP tissue price of Evens about the favourite could lead to Oceanos being backed and Pur De Sivola drifting. I won't be here to know, but I think the current prices are about right.
This is the 200th bet of the challenge – 112% returns.
£500 Challenge
Pur De Sivola £20 win at 8/11
Oi Oi (or as they say in Brizzle “Come on my babby”). That was a pretty impressive run from Spears Tarquynn to get squished on the run-up and still win.
Today I found myself looking at two very similar races and, whilst meditating, found the two merging in my mind, so on tricky day that's what we'll do.
Firstly, the Kempton 5:30 has a worthy short favourite in You Do The Math with little to beat. The main challenger is a fairly unexposed horse getting useful weight in Silver Dollars. He looks a good each way steal.
That's a lowly Hunters Chase but pretty much the same applies to the Dubai World Cup Saturday, where Curlin looks home and hosed with Jalil as the only realistic fly in the ointment. I've played around with this so that the place part of the each way bet gets us our money back, which should be a bonus, but may be consolation should You Do The Math fail. And if both the faves blow out we're placed to scoop the loot.
£500 Challenge
You Do The Math £10 win at 1.6
Silver Dollars/Jalil £3ew double 9/1 and 7/1
You Do The Math/Curlin £5 win double at 5/4
It's the start of that month or so when it becomes very difficult (Aintree apart) to find any racing bets. Which is a shame because we are pootling along quite nicely at the moment.
So today we'll head over to the Pall Mall greyhound final at Oxford. I do have a system of sorts that makes money on the Tuesday night Sky meetings – unfortunately matrimonial harmony means my endeavours in this area are somewhat limited! Also, I can't say I know anything about the runners tonight, and as you know the challenge bets don't thrive away from football and racing!
Looking at the race it seems to me Spears Tarquynn is the best dog based on the heats, and if he avoids what looks like a potential pile up at the bend, he should win. However, the chance of trouble is certainly driving the market, and the dog who should benefit (Unique Option) is the second best on merit anyway. He'll go off favourite and the best dog could well drift quite badly tonight.
Looked at simply (simplistically): If the 2 dog gets a clear run he wins. If there is a lot of trouble the 6 dog wins. Probably. I'd be happy to say that would cover the bases at least two thirds of the time. We can beat that at best prices now and probably even more later.
£500 Challenge
Oxford Dogs 9:15
Spears Tarquynn £10 win at 5/2 or better
Unique Option £10 win at 2/1 or better
Football rather good yesterday. Tiger who? Hopefully Vijay can rescue some funds.
Astonishingly poor racing today, and I can't find a football bet either.
In the end I've plumped for laying Oscar D'Angron. Now 0-17 in races, and there are a couple of likely sorts here who can lay down a challenge at which he should curl up. I'll probably combine backing those two and laying the fave, but for the challenge I'll keep it simple.
Irish National doesn't look very competitve. Well Run is a decent price at 16/1ish – I was there the year The Bunny Boiler won from out of the handicap and the trainer tries a repeat here. Hard to front run but probably a decent back to lay.
In truth, get a life, get out there in the rain, sleet and snow and enjoy your bank holiday!
£500 Challenge
Oscar D'Angron lay to lose £20 at under 11/8 (5/4 currently).
Tiger has work to do today. We may need Vijay to get us some consolation money, but let's see how the Aussies stand up under the strain of leading for 25 holes in a day.
I was going to concentrate on Man Utd today but have reconsidered. The prices today seem to under-rate both home sides. On my prices we can actually afford to keep the draw partially on-side in both fixtures. It's unusual for the big matches to be priced wrongly, but it's a featture of these matches that the away team is overrated. Essentially this is because of all the tribal money bookies know they will field. Plus in this instance there are reasons for the bookies to want to get Man Utd and Chelsea, and to avoid Liverpool. It all looks an overreaction to me though.
Benitez has a record of 5 losses in 6 and no goals against Utd. And Liverpool have not scored in their last 4 away games at top half teams. There is a touch of my boyhood hero Dalglish about Torres. On the other hand, and this could come back to bite me, he seems painfully one footed. I've missed him rattling in the goals of late but prior to that I thought he'd struggle against the best defences. Not that Utd have their best defence.
Chelsea and Arsenal both have questions to answer at the moment. And draw more often than not. I'll stick with my ratings though, and Chelsea's midfield to nullify Arsenal's eye of a needle passing.
We make a profit on one draw and a win, and lose half our money on two draws. Either side winning and the other losing and our losses are minimal. Best not to dwell on the other outcomes.
£500 Challenge
Man Utd £12.50 at 1.8 -0.25 Asian h'cap
Chelsea £12.50 at 1.95 -0.25 Asian h'cap
Racing definitely swervable today. I backed Rio Riva at 20s in the week and he'll do for the Lincoln, and hopefully kick off a few Spring doubles for me. Pin-sticking at best though.
In the Haydock 5:20 Jungleland looks a bet – he doesn't actually need to improve to win this but the trip should bring out some improvement anyway. 3/1 very acceptable.
The Challenge fund though is sticking to football.
Carlisle will be looking to put pressure on Swansea. I priced them pretty short when I did my ratings, and see that the bookies are coming closer in line and betfair is trading under best odds.
Again, this works as a hedge against season long bets for me, so I'm happy to play.
£500 challenge
Carlisle £20 to beat Orient at 8/5
Today's bet is Stockport to beat Macclesfield.
Stockport have been averaging 2.5 points per game in 2008 which is table-topping form. The bookies after them are presumably mindful that their home form is nowhere near as impressive as their away form. I belong to the camp that thinks a home/away split in performance is more likely randomness than anything else. Macclesfield may also be mistaken for being on the up after beating two terrible sides recently.
Either way, 4/6 (or better) is very backable. I'm closer to 2/1on
£500 Challenge
Stockport £20 win 4/6 or better (1.7 is available)
The racing is far from interesting today. I could play forward a football bet but I'll probably need it tomorrow.
So we'll stick with the mares hurdle at Wincanton and row in with the long odds on fave. She has absolutely nothing to beat, and as long as is well and jumps round, wins.
£500 Challenge
£20 win Lamanver Homerun at 1/3
Time to board the Tiger gravy train again.
10/11 may be as short as he's ever been but after 7 wins in a row, and with a hat-trick of titles under his belt here – that surprisingly looks generous.
We'll hedge on the two in-form players in the without Woods markets, and maybe collect on more than one bet.
£500 Challenge
Woods £17 win at 10/11
Singh w/out Woods £1ew at 14/1
O Hara w/out Woods 50p ew at 33/1
Back to novice chasing today and the match between Trigger the Light and Portland Bill.
There isn't much between them on paper. Trigger the Light would have been expected to have run a few times on winter ground so has obviously had a setback. We're trusting to luck he's fit and well. Alan King has high hopes for him and this is the track he uses with great success for his novices. His run in November was full of promise and trip and ground are ideal. Portland Bill started off well but has lost his way. Back over hurdles last time this feels like a continuing part of that confidence boosting.
The price is no more than fair but we'll side with the King horse.
£500 challenge
£20 win Trigger The Light at 4/6
Going for a hat-trick of losing football bets tonight!
I'm still against Newcastle, although there are signs of life based on Blackburn's lucky win. Away this season Newcastle have only once not conceded and that was against Fulham. They've not scored two away since the start of the season either. Birmingham have failed to score at home 4 times but that includes Man Utd and Chelsea.
11/8 Birmingham is just value for me, and works better if we keep 1-1 draw onside.
£500 Challenge
£15 win Birmingham at 11/1
£5 score 1-1 at 6/1
You should have been able to guess today's bet.
Everton are on the list again. I think people are out to get them mainly on the back of mental scars from Thursay night. And a misguided notion that Fulham are improving and are better at home. Honestly if the best you can come up with is the fluke of a victory over Villa as proof of that...
On the downside Cahill is missing. I'll reduce stake because of that. On the plus side is the hedge factor involved for me in not actually wanting Fulham to lose.
I have Everton at odds-on for this. We can back them at +0.25 at bigger than my win odds, and save half our money on a draw.
£500 Challenge
£20 Everton +0.25 at 1.9
That was a very good Cheltenham for the challenge fund. It gets us back up to £900 after a poor run.
I haven't had time to get into Uttoxeter today.
I'll have to stick with football and I expect that's wise anyway.
Peterborough are only a fair price today – on the cusp of value. I'm keen to be with them though as it will act as another hedge against that large double I have running on Swansea/MK Dons.
£500 Challenge
£20 win Peterborough at 1.5
Mossbank was given a terrible ride yesterday, and that's my pocket talking! I forgave him a poor ride on New Alco, but to relicate it almost exactly a couple of days later defies belief. At least Inglis Drever can win no matter who rides him – a great little horse and I'll admit to a tear in my eye. Of course that may have been because I would have won far more had Kasbah Bliss won! It's a measure of an enduring love with the festival that had me cheering on Inglis up the hill anyway.
Today let's just focus on the Gold Cup. I've always liked using athletics analogies for racing. For me the race comes down to, say, a Paula Radcliffe type (Denman) against, say, a Geeta Wami type (Kauto Star). One of them grinds and grinds and wears all but the best down. The other sits and waits and the kicks past whatever brave soul has set the race up for her. Paula can't win on the track, but can win on a tough cross country course, or over the marathon trip. Today the question for me is – will the Gold Cup resemble a track race or a tough cross country race?
Go back say ten years and the answer was obvious. The Gold Cup was for stayers. King George for the track bullies and the Gold Cup for the cross country types. Recently a dearth of decent stayers has allowed the likes of Kicking King to win both races. Now we have a real match. Maybe the Gold Cup will reclaim its reputation as a staying race first and foremost.
So, on that basis 2/1 Denman looks too big to me. Even allowing for Kauto Star to have been there, done that, and for Ruby choosing Kauto, the best I could do would be 5/4 Kauto and 6/4 Denman.
The other athletics analogy I'd draw is Coe V Ovett and a European Championship etched on my teenage mind – where the pair spent the race so obsessed with each other that some bloke called Jurgen Straub came and beat them both!
£500 Challenge
Denman £20 win at 2/1
Well, we have all yesterday's bets still going! The ground looks to have dried up though so my soft ground attack at the NH Chase and Sun Alliance looks to have evaporated. Ice Tea comes back into the equation if it has dried out.
Of Thursday's proper racing. People are going to bet like madmen today. A day off yesterday - drinking and opinionating - are going to have everyone gagging to get stuck in, top up their alcohol levels and start chasing a couple of races early with a stack of them still to come. I expect people to hit a wall somewhere round the Racing Plate! Even though I'll be sat here sober I fully expect to be getting into the spirit of the battle, so for the challenge fund I'm going to hedge my bets and keep it very simple.
Ryanair
I really like Mossbank here. I was very impressed with him last time and he looks to have been kept fresh for this ever since. A slight doubt about jumping left handed and The Listener could get them all at it if given a soft lead. I have Lantartique on board as he was part of my enormous treble on this day last year, but doubt this race will suit and he was mulish last time. Turko is also onside but frankly I doubt he'll be good enough.
World Hurdle
Inglis Drever looks like he's going to drift all day. Which is great because he should be odds on. I'm not worried about the yard form. I am a little worried about the change of track because he truly loves the new course. I do have Kasbah Bliss at 20/1 and he finally looked like he may stay at Haydock last time but that flat track would have suited more than here. Aitmatov could maybe surprise at a big price if he stays. But enough of such idle fancies – Inglis smells his way home from the top of the hill and that's that.
RP Plate
Mighty Matters looked great at Sandown and if he repeats that left handed he'd going to make 16/1 look yummy. Bible Lord travelled better than all bar Denman in the Hennessey until running out of gas and the stable could hardly be in better form. They'll do for me.
Fulke Walwyn
I can see Burntoakboy bouncing back to form on a track he loves. And we have to keep Ferdy Murphy chasers – Joes Edge and Noir et Vert - onside especially with two top amateurs up.
Pertemps/Bumper
Are you kidding? I'm tired!
£500 Challenge
Mossbank £10 win at 10/3
Inglis Drever £15 win at 5/4 or better
Good opening day. I'm off to the course tomorrow so here are the challenge bets early.
Ballymore
The market looks right to me. I have Group Captain at 25s, Aigle Dor at 20s and ForPaddy at 6s, which is as nice as the Champion Hurdle yesterday, and probably as pointless! Don't see the need to get involved again though.
Sun Alliance
Oscar Park at 14s and Verasi at 33s (plus battlecry at 100/1) are my ante post ones here, and actually I continue to like them now. If the going remains the same as yesterday Verasi has a real chance. I don't think there's much class in the race and guts could be the key. Oscar Park probably is the class – even if Dave Nevison says he jumps like a snooker table. They'll form part of the daily challenge.
Queen Mum
The front four all have their chances and all their doubts. I have Master Minded at 25s so again will stick with that.
Coral Cup
Our pre-festival tickle on a few outsiders is looking interesting now that King Harald is a non runner and Crack Away Jack won. Take Your Mark becomes one to be very interested in! Of the rest County Zen should have gone for the Ballymore but I guess I'll back him anyway, and chuck in Naiad de Misselot and Astarador.
NH Chase
I was keen on Ice Tea earlier in the week but the ground looks to have gone. Instead I find Sherwoods Folly catching the eye. He jumped much better last time, travels and stays. 33/1 has to be taken, or 28/1 with an extra place.
£500 challenge
Oscar Park £6 win at 15/2
Verasi £2.50 ew at 20/1
Sherwoods Folly £2.50 ew at 33/1
£1 rev fc Oscar Park/Verasi
£1 ew double Verasi and Sherwoods Folly
King Harald a non runner, which on the one hand is a blow for yesterday's challenge bet, on the other hand we have our first festival return!
Supreme Novices
I go 10/1 the field. Looks wide open. 13 horses could win. I'm inclined to bolster my Khyber Kim ante post bet with a few darts at some of the outsiders – Numide, Sophocles, Tranquil Sea and Blue Bajan. However, Pigeon Island is a rock solid horse. He loves these big fields and the Tote Trophy form has to be better than the novice hurdles most of these have been in. Some of the bookies are going first 4 and a combination of each way with them and place only looks a way in.
Arkle
Noland 3/1
Mahogany Blaze 8/1
Ring The Boss 8/1
Tidal Bay 8/1
Kruguyrova 8/1
Thyne Again 12/1
Clopf 16/1
Leslingtaylor 16/1
Moon Over Miami 16/1
At today's prices Kruguyrova looks appealing, at least each way. The main doubts are front running and whether she'll be allowed to dominate, and whether she'll get home up the hill. On the other hand she could really get a moderate bunch in jumping difficulties. I've got her and Ring The Boss on board ante post, along with Tidal Bay and Mohogany Blaze, so am basically against the only class animal in Noland!
Champion Hurdle
You should know my ante post book is healthy here and I can afford to sit on my vouchers here. I have Osana priced at 4/1 this morning and the only remaining value.
WH Chase
Wide open – 8 runners – most of whom need to find some form. With King Harald out I guess if I play it I would include Fundamentalist, New Alco and Mon Mome, but not one that excites me right now.
Fred Winter
Ashkazar looks home here. Crack Away Jack is weak this morning. He still looks the each way play though, but as we already have him in yesterday's bets, I won't go in again.
£500 Challenge
Pigeon Island £2 win at 11/1 and £7 place at best odds (say 5/2)
Kruguyrova £2 win at 14/1and £7 place at best odds (say 3/1)
£1ew double.
Here's a few at bigger prices for the festival. None of them were part of my exisiting portfolio and are in some of the lesser races – all non runner no bet. We'll also double them up, each way, as they are picked more for being solid than for being handicap blots.
King Harald – WH Hcap chase Tuesday 12/1
Memories of him careering up the hill in the Jewson are still fresh. He lost his way for ages afterwards, but his last few runs have really shown signs of a revival. Course form is so important at the festival and 12/1 is a nice price to kick us off.
Crack Away Jack – Fred Winter – Tuesday 12/1
Ashkazar is going to be short here if lining up. It's not easy to win from the front in these Cheltenham handicap hurdles and I'll take him on. Emma Lavelle couldn't lie straight in bed, but that just means she gets horses very well handicapped. I reckon she thinks the world of this one, and he has a very progressive profile.
Take Your Mark – Coral Cup – Wednesday 25/1
Madness picking such an old, well raced, overly handicapped horse. He's in fine form though, and when he flew home late at Cheltenham earlier in the season the run screamed out What's Up Boys and others that have sprouted wings at the foot of the hill in this race.
Hordago – Fulke Walwyn – Thursday 12/1
Loves Cheltenham. Has failed in this before but Katy Walsh looked to be a great booking earlier in the year.
£500 Challenge
King Harald £4 win at 12/1
Crack Away Jack £4 win at 12/1
Take Your Mark £4 win at 25/1
Hordago £4 win at 12/1
6 x 70p ew doubles
1 x 30p ew accumulator.
That was a good decision yesterday.
Football is an easy choice today as well.
I've been dutching the big teams in the cup for years now, so yesterday was an expensive reversal and so successful has tbe bet been in the past I had already banked it in my mind!
I reckon it's going to have a strange effect on players for today's games. Yesterday morning they will deep down have known they had no realistic chance of winning the cup. By last night that will have changed, and every team that lines up this afternoon will have been dreaming of Wembley glory, even Bristol Rovers.
I think the most likely result will be two very cagey matches this afternoon, played out by very scared players. Add in the fact that Middlesbrough are hopeless at scoring (only scored more than 1 goal 4 times in 24 games, and only Derby have scored fewer at home), Bristol Rovers pitch is a quagmire, and there could be high winds by this evening, and you surely have to be looking at a lack of goals in both matches.
For the challenge I was going to be putting up Everton to get something out of the visit to Sunderland and I will still be betting that way, but I think I'll switch to FA Cup boredom.
£500 Challenge
£15 Middlebrough game under 2.5 goals at 4/6
£15 Bristol R game under 2.5 goals at 4/5
Sandown is distinctly underwhelming again today. (Yesterday I toyed with the idea of putting Mighty Matters up as the challenge bet –proof if ever was needed of the maxim 'scared money is dead money'!).
If there's a way to approach the day I'd say it's to think about the proximity of Cheltenham and focus on (a) trainers with a huge string of talented horses who have some left over for today – Nicholls and Pipe obviously, and (b) on horses that have been specifically aimed at today – Albinus leaps off the page.
Bubble Boy could have a nice time in the lead in the 2:40 – a back to lay maybe. And in the 5:00 I don't think It's Crucial is going to like being taken on for the lead by about three other front runners.
So, sorry for the lack of action but I'm putting up Doncaster to beat Port Vale instead which should be 1/3 at very longest, and betfair is trading below best price.
£500 Challenge
Doncaster £25 at 2/5
Football and racing both leaving me cold today.
And I always used to go the Grand Military day at Sandown. The racing may not be up to much but it was fun waiting for dear old Alers-Hankey and his other double-barrelled chinless chums to hit the deck.
Still best get the challenge back on the road. I can't see how Nicholls won't be top trainer at the festival. I was almost tempted to back him to win three or more Grade 1 races, which would win this in itself, and he no doubt has chances in a few of the other races as well. That said make sure you're betting on countback in case of tie, rather than dead-heat rules.
£500 Challenge
Nicholls top festival trainer £20 at 1.5
Back on an even keel hopefully. That was a tough few days. Or as Anne remarked “you looked like you were imploding.”
The attraction of this lifestyle (apart from not having to be a corporate slave any more) isn't the notion of something easy. It's actually that it's so hard. I've never really found anything else I've done for a living particularly challenging – soul-sucking drudgery maybe - but not difficult. That said I'd settle for an 'easy' Cheltenham!
I said I'd be back Friday, so I won't put up a challenge bet. However I will be playing 'mug' doubles for my daily bet. These are on the face of it are silly bets at bad prices to be avoided at all costs by the shrewd and serious. That's fine, but four or five times a year a card screams at me to do them, and I assure you the record over 10 years is very profitable.
Today Mike de Kock has an incredible set of runners at Nad Al Sheba (first 6 races), and none of them hindered by terrible draws or similar. 15 doubles for me and an each way accumulator.
When you're in a hole, and you try to buy money and find yourself failing, it's definitely time to walk away for a few days. Particularly when you were originally going to do Unders and played safe.
I couldn't go into Cheltenham in the state of mind I have right now.
Sandown's a happy hunting ground. I'll see if I can get the smell back there.
Boo watch: Boo Hoo.
Should probably have a day off. But will be working on Cheltenham this afternoon so may as well keep an eye on Stratford. Manhattan Boy looks opposable – he certainly hasn't looked very good so far, and could well trade at a bigger price in-running once he's clouted a couple. Wouldn't be confident of finding the winner though, on last week's vision.
I'm going to play the football tonight instead. The price is not 'value' but given the injury to Carlisle's only goalscorer and Nottingham Forest's defensive record – especially at home – it's very hard to see Carlisle winning tonight.
£500 Challenge
Lay Carlisle tonight at as close to 4/1 as possible (say 9/2 for calculation purposes) to lose £20.
Boo watch: Rubbish. Get off. Boo Boo.
I could have been persuaded to stick with football today such has been my ability on the horses. Everton are just about backable.
However, I'll go to Market Rasen and Caraman instead. His form behind some of the better northern novices should be good enough in this company. I have been against him in higher company and he does seem too old for the game, but his performances have been perfectly adequate.
King Mak is the only credible rival and I think I'll put him in a saver ew double with another match horse – Autumn Red – who has it all to do to beat the favourite but should have no problem placing.
£500 Challenge
Caraman £20 win at 4/7 or better
King Mak and Autumn Red £2.50 ew double at best prices you can get.
(for calculation purposes I'll call it SP and 9/4).
Boo watch: Well, he made the cut. Come on Boo, charging day.
I'm going to be very cautious today – these pre festival weekends are always bad for me, and I've felt like a loser all week, not the vibes for aggressive punting.
Newbury 2:40
Royal Auclair 9/2
Briery Fox 5/1
Tana River 9/1
I really like these veteran races – just not for punting! One of them is going to roll back the years – not sure who though. Of my shortlist Royal Auclair hasn't been finishing his races, Briery Fox has had enough chances, the stableform is a worry and he's anchored by Bradburne (that aside he's the one with form on a very nice mark) and Tana River will set it up for the rest probably.
Newbury 3:15
Maljimar 7/2
Natal 4/1
Nevertika 9/2
Milan Deux Mille 7/1
Nacarat 11/1
The sort of race I used to specialise in. The market's different these days and the juice has long gone. Ante post would have been the way in, but there was no action all week. I hope Nevertika wins.
Doncaster 3:30
Mr Pointment 9/4
Cloudy Lane 3/1
Ungaro 4/1
Gidam Gidam 9/1
One to watch. Particularly interested in how well Cloudy Lane finishes as I still remain to be convinced by his stamina.
Doncaster 4:40
Haringay 5/2
In Accord 5/2
Top Cloud 3/1
Haringay is 0-9 and we've been attcking her all season. In Accord is 0-8. Step forward Top Cloud. I'll admit I know little of the horse, but it's him or lay the front two.
Kempton 4:00
Classic Fiddle 4/5
Does have a worrying tendency to run down her fences, but has a winning profile, is up againt very disappointing horses, whom Henderson has good formlines on. Looks about as good a bet as I'll find today, even if the price is uninspiring.
I'll try to get rich on Nevertika, Briery Fox, Top Cloud and Classic Fiddle but won't be playing them all singly.
£500 Challenge
Classic Fiddle £20 at 5/6 or better
