Monday, June 30, 2008

Monday 30th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£1049)


Let's ignore the Irish Derby ever happened and see if we can actually salvage anything from Wimbledon.


I'm going to play a match bet here. Warwrinka is evens against Safin. Safin is mecurial and riding the high of beating Djokovic. A fading star with one last hurrah maybe. Warwrinka is up and coming but on a surface he hasn't yet shone on. He's beaten Safin twice easily – breaking his serve 50% of the time. He's the one with real improvement in him, and yet is already ranked way higher than Safin who could easily throw in a sulky performance. Warwrinka should surely be odds on.


£25 Warwrinka beat Safin at Evens





Barking Bets” (Banked £500/Current bank £1473 – one bet inrunning – unaccounted)
(Youmzain's a dog. Oh. That sums up yesterday. A loss on the week. At least the stake is simpler to account now. Today's tennis bets probably don't strictly fit into this system and I may be cross with myself later.)

  1. Baghdatis beat Lopez £150 at 1.44

  2. Tipsarevic beat Schuettler £150 at 1.3

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Sunday 29th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£1027 – 1 bet running)


Lovely ride by Ryan Moore on Promising Lead yesterday – he is tactically aware, and keeps it simple, being able to place a horse in the right position in the race. Other jockeys should take note.


We are already on for the Irish Derby but with New Approach probably out are looking at a bit of a shambles of a book. Just have to live with it I guess.


So, what of the Euro 2008 final. My ratings at the start of the tournament would have had me pricing Spain up at 11/8 for this match. Which is what they are now, after being undeniably the best team in the tournament. Germany look there for the taking, but then they always do. It's not true they always have the last laugh though, and in fact their record in the final of Euro championships is nothing to write home about – ask the Czechs and Denmark. I'd really like Spain to win – which isn't a good reason to get involved that's for sure – so let's mark this down as an occasional love bet.


I'll save on penalties.


£20 Spain to beat Germany at 11/8+
£5 either team to win on penalties at 9/2+







Barking Bets” (Banked £500/Current bank £1570 – one bet inrunning – unaccounted)
(Three horse races dragged us back for the week. I'd say the two group races at the Curragh and the one at St Cloud are all possibles. Watching brief.It would be nice to squeeze a profit, however tiny, out of a poor week, but I don't want to push it.)


Saturday, June 28, 2008

Saturday 28th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£982 – 1 bet running)


The tennis blew apart yesterday. And New Approach not running would only be good if you got ante post prices (I did on Causal Conquest but not on Tartan Bearer).


Racing today. Here's a successful system for you. Back Stoute's older fillies in group races. Could hardly be simpler. And he has a likely sort today in the Pretty Polly. She's improving with age and is in a virtual match with a horse she's already beaten; who is better on firmer and shorter, and has had plenty of hard races including against colts just a week ago. An obvious bet for me.


The Northumberland Plate looks as impossible as ever. You could forget form study and just go with John Hammond. I nearly always back his horses when they come over here, so Far From Old gets the nod.


And to complete the treble why not the improving King of Dixie who has very little to beat for a rapidly improving animal.


£20 win Promising Lead 5/2
£2.50 win Far From Old 12/1
£2.50 win treble those two plus King of Dixie





Barking Bets” (Banked £500/Current bank £1460 – one bet inrunning – unaccounted)
(Tennis matches OK yesterday and I added Warwrinka late on for a nice win. All undone by Ivanovich of course and we're now on course for a losing week. Some possibilities in the big races today – front three at Windsor 3:05 for example, but watching brief at the moment.)


  1. Tennis – Nadal beat Kiefer £155 at 1.1


Friday, June 27, 2008

Friday 27th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£1007– 1 bet running)

Looks like I should have stuck with the Williams sisters. Sharapova is rubbish in the wind – she has no thought of taking anything off the ball and her unforced error count was ridiculous. One for the memory banks.

Let's get it on early for the Irish Derby. Why oppose New Approach? Well, personally I thought the Derby may have been one group 1 race too far so early in the season. I was plainly wrong, but surely should be even more worried now. Also, the Derby was run at a pedestrian pace which would have suited New Approach – it could be 10f ends up being his best trip - and not suited Tartan Bearer and Casual Conquest. I see both of these as credible candidates to improve with the experience and the conditions. I'd rather back the two of them at odds against than New Approach at odds on that's for sure. What team tactics O'Brien has in mind is naturally a worry but he can't win every Group 1. Can he?


£25 Dutch Tartan Bearer and Casual Conquest at 7/4 Irish Derby






Barking Bets” (Banked £500/Current bank £1522 – two bets inrunning – unaccounted)
(Anyone actually following this part with real bets dodged bullets yesterday as I had two losers I'm afraid. Roddick and the listed fillies race at Newcastle. With Ivanovich looking flaky I'm in for a hard week).

  1. Tennis – Baghdatis beat Stadler £155 at 1.19

  2. Tennis – Kuznetsova beat Strycova £155 at 1.12


Thursday, June 26, 2008

Thursday 26th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£976– 2 bets running)


Forget the football. We have Spain on our side in the name the finalists bet and I'm not going in again – my match betting has been hopeless.


I like the look of Tazeez at Newcastle. He's up against good but totally exposed handicappers and should be better than that. I won't put him up as a bet though with thunderstorms forecast – watching brief for now.




Barking Bets” (Banked £500/Current bank £1779 – two bets inrunning – unaccounted)

(Ivanovich! I'm a bit stymied this morning as the tennis website I use for checking form is down again. So no bets today – if it comes back up this morning I'll post an update.)


Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Wednesday 25th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£996– 2 bets running)


I'm So Lucky looks a decent horse.

I've looked at this Germany game for ages now. The match odds are risible, and yet how do you price up a Turkey side that has been so lucky and is down to the bare bones? In the end I just forogt prices and thought what I saw as the least likely thing to happen other than Turkey winning, and that was them scoring. That'll do.

Germany to keep a clean sheet £25 at 1.9





Barking Bets” (Banked £500/Current bank £1710 – two bets inrunning – unaccounted)
(Good day – except for Srebrotnik. She had match point early on in 3rd, before losing 16-14 – so at least we had value for money. My dog had his legs crossed waiting for the end!)

  1. Tennis – Berdych beat Hanescu £155 at 1.17

  2. Tennis – Ancic beat Petschner £155 at 1.08

  3. Racing Worcester 2:50 - Dutch front four £155 at 1.15

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Tuesday 24th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£983– 2 bets running)

Was looking for a decent tennis bet but can only come up with barking bets.

The Newton Abbot novice chase will have to do instead. I'm So Lucky is a good few pounds better than these. “Never bet odds on in novice chases” is one of the many sayings in racing that doesn't stand up to the closest of scrutiny – these days at least. You do feel a bit of a fool when they fall though, or when Sam Thomas goes for home a circuit early etc. There's no doubt in my mind that such fears hold the price up.

7:35 NA Im So Lucky £20 at 4/6 guaranteed




Barking Bets” (Banked £500/Current bank £1700 – two bets inrunning – unaccounted)
(Good day yesterday – all tennis bets landed and a race bet)


  1. Tennis – Srebotnik beat Goerges £155 at 1.16

  2. Tennis – Wozniacki beat Hrdinova £155 at 1.11

  3. Tennis – Gulbis beat Isner £155 at 1.37

  4. Greyhounds Donc 8:00 Dutch Traps 2 and 4 £155 at 1.2+

  5. Racing Brighton 4:30 Dutch Choreography/Landucci/Tinas Best £155 at 1.35+



Monday, June 23, 2008

Monday 23rd June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£1008– 1 bet running)

And so it came to pass that the last quarter final was also a draw. I hope some of you who read yesterday's post came to the conclusion that was a must bet!

Wimbledon takes centre stage now with the 'barking bets' no doubt taking plenty of the strain. I think there'll be in-play barking possibilities as well so it could be interesting.

The women's tournament is the more difficult to call and as usual it means taking a stance on the Williams sisters. Last year I was right behind them. Venus could have lost a number of times before guts and luck saved her, and Serena was always injured and still nearly won. Venus was something like 14/1 last year. 5/1 this after another year of inaction hardly looks value. Serena is more troublesome but also looks short. There may be no clear favourites but there does seem to be a little more depth with a slew of eastern europeans on the way up – plenty of whom could topple them – and their half-hearted approach to tennis may finally catch them out.

That leaves us with fair prices on Sharapova and Ivanovic. Sharapova can't slide at the French Open and will never win there. This is much more her thing and what she lacks in shots she more than makes up for in guts – something in desperately short supply in women's tennis. Ivanovich has her slam now and could be the one to improve away from the field. We can get them on-side at 5/4 – and allow ourselves some hedging opportunities if need be down the line.


£25 Dutch Sharapova and Ivanovich at 5/4



Barking Bets” (Banked £500/Current bank £1572 – one bet inrunning – unaccounted)
(Kaymer pretty much proved that this fund is riding its luck at the moment!)

  1. Tennis – Ivanovich to win her quarter £155 at 1.5

  2. Tennis – Soderling bt Kim £155 at 1.07

  3. Tennis – Seppi beat Kampke £155 at 1.11

  4. Tennis – Szavay beat Garbin £155 at 1.32

  5. Tennis – Radwanska beat Benesova £155 at 1.19



Sunday, June 22, 2008

Sunday 22nd June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£1008– 1 bet running)

Honolulu rescued yesterday. Actually Sugar Ray and Honolulu dug me out of a nasty looking hole, and that was some ride from Ryan Moore on Sugar Ray.

Russia are making the 'name the finalists' market look a close call now – they have been magnificent the last two games. And I think I can aftertime a bit and say I backed them pre tournament at 60/1. I think I can aftertime because I sold the bet at 65/1 after their first game!

I've played the tournament badly actually. I seem to have been veering away from pre tournament tactics and responding wildly on a bet by bet basis. For example I was going to bet every quarter final to be a draw (43% based on previous tournaments). I bet the first one (lost) and then failed to back the next two (won), and so now am faced with whether to play the last one. I think with my approach shot to pieces I'll sit out the rest of the tournament and just enjoy it.

A contributory factor to what is essentially piss poor betting has been that Ascot has been a distraction, and a liquidity and confidence drainer. It is a problem of my approach that sometimes I spread myself too thinly across sporting events.

The daily bet also fails sometimes – because I can't decide on which of two bets to choose from differing sports. I think I may have to work on that.

Anyway I'm off to the Mid West show in the rain today – a sort of Glastonbury with pigs instead of music. So no bet today.



Barking Bets” (Banked £500/Current bank £1549)
(I decided to bank profits this week a day early – creative accounting to put me nicely ahead! We've actually doubled our money – a hell of a lot quicker than the fund above. And we've landed 42/45 bets over the last three weeks – over 90% each week. That may be partly down to me choosing better, and avoiding trouble, or it may just be a run of luck. We'll see.)


  1. Tennis Dutch Federer/Nadal/Djokovic to win Wimbledon £155 at 1.16

  2. Golf Kaymer win Golf £155 at 1.15



Saturday, June 21, 2008

Saturday 21st June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£942– 2 bets running)

(Murtagh should sew up top jockey today, and Croatia's failure strengthens the name the finalists bet also).

It's been a rotten Ascot for me. Last throw of the dice here.

Speed Gifted looks too long in the Hardwicke – notable that Corals are ducking him. Marchand D'Or has the form in the book after the Kings Stand this week, but Sakhees Secret was the horse I was most looking forward to backing at the start of what has been a long and lonely week. And in the last Honolulu looks to have a large class advantage. My tissues make these all good bets but frankly my tissues haven't been worth much this week so I won't bore you with them.


£6 win Speed Gifted at 13/2
£3 win Marchand Dor at 6/1
£3 win Sakhees Secret at 11/2
£6 win Honolulu at 5/2+
2 x £1 trebles the above horses.




Barking Bets” (Banked £350/Current bank £1657)
(the outstanding bets all came in and I added another maiden yesterday)


  1. Ascot 3:05 Dutch Speed Gifted/Macarthur/Spanish Moon/Maraahel £140 at 1.15

Friday, June 20, 2008

Friday 20th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£962– 2 bets running)


Back to basics for me – with Godolphin out the way it seems you can back O'Brien's blind in the big races if the money's down.


Best hope that doesn't include Hebridean, as yet again I find myself taking on the Irish. Bronze Cannon and All The Aces have creditable form against Dr Freemantle, and Conduit couldn't have been more impressive at Epsom and was ridden as though they knew they had a group horse in their hands. The latter two have been supplemented for this. We can get the three onside at better than 4/5. It was that or back Croatia to win at 10/11. Both are close calls and not outright 'value' and on balance I think I'll stick Ascot up here and play safe on the Croatia game below.


£20 Dutch All The Aces, Bronze Cannon, Conduit at 4/5+





Barking Bets” (Banked £350/Current bank £1553)


  1. Lay Turkey v Croatia £140 at 1.23




Thursday, June 19, 2008

Thursday 19th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£982– 2 bets running)

Job done yesterday – steady if unexciting, but had I been betting as I used to at these festivals say two years ago, I'd be staring down the barrel right now.

Today we'll go for hype over experience, not something I usually do. I just feel Yeats is probably in decline and this is the time to get him beat with a Fabre special. I took 9/4 last night – 2s is just about fair though it's possible the money could come for O'Brien's as it has all week..

Of the rest of the card – I've been backing Wragg fillies at Ascot for the best part of fifteen years and won't stop now just because Pricewise has joined in. And in the Britannia how about Thebes to prove the braindead jockeys wrong and make all up the far rail, or failing that Jedediah.


£20 win Coastal Path at 2/1+




Barking Bets” (Banked £350/Current bank £1400?(estimated – three in running)

  1. Tennis Dementieva beat Cristea £140 at 1.12

  2. Ascot Dutch Yeats and Coastal Path £140 at 1.33

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Weds 18th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£966– 2 bets running)

Some good news yesterday – Romania not bottom and Murtagh flying in the top jockey.

Otherwise a real downer. Luca Toni (or Rigatone as my wife calls him) plays like limp pasta with an inedible sauce. Jamie Spencer did his Frank impersonation again on Cesare, where O'Brien team tactics ruined the race again (and I backed Haradasun). And Jimmy Fortune decided to give Henry first run – and Ravens Pass didn't get nearly enough plaudits in all the fawning over the champ.


No wonder I'm a bit grumpy this morning.

Today's racing I'll hope Jupiter Pluvius comes on from his last run; chance Pipedreamer to step up and take Oceana Gold over Bankable. For our bet I think we can go for three in the big race at a shade of odds on.

£20 Dutched Duke of Marmalade, Sixties Icon and Pipedreamer at 4/5+





Barking Bets” (Banked £350/Current bank £1370)
(Win yesterday supplmented by a very lucky win in Thirsk claimer)


  1. Tennis Radwanska beat Rezzai £140 at 1.25



Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Tuesday 17th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£976– 3 bets running)


Tiger Woods – heart big as a bucket.


Ascot today looks almost impossible. The Queen Anne is my favourite race of the meeting and I haven't a clue this morning. In the King's Stand I prefer Magnus over Takeover Target at the prices, and have a sneaky regard for Enticing, one year older and in first time blinkers. 33/1 looks very playable. In the long distance handicap my eye is drawn to Emma Lavelle's Daltaban. As we know from our big priced Cheltenham winner, the girl doesn't know how to lie straight in bed, and it just may be that this one will run a big race here. The market suggests not, but choose between 66/1 each way or any price you like to win on betfair.


I feel kinda lucky this morning. Tonight (first day of Ascot) is the night we flooded a year ago. We seem to have come through it all pretty well. So how about pushing the luck with an each way double!


The St James's Palace revolves round Henry and I'm with Corals on wanting to oppose at the price. I'm taken that Twice Over and especially Ravens Pass are keen to oppose and Falco looked pretty decent last time too. I wouldn't go odds on Henry, let alone 4/7. We can dutch the three main opponents and hope one lowers his colours.


Football tonight and must win games in third round matches mean goals historically. Italy's and France's defences didn't look up to much against Holland. Odds against looks big.


£20 dutch Twice Over/Falco/Ravens Pass at 2/1+

£20 Italy/France Over 2.5 goals at 5/4






Barking Bets” (Banked £350/Current bank £1324)
(Azarenka's injury reminds me that it's the week before a major and a tanking red flag is required)


  1. Tennis Verdasco beat Daniel £140 at 1.17

Monday, June 16, 2008

Monday 16th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£951– 3 bets running)


Probably a poor bet yesterday. Move on.


I wouldn't put anyone off hedging on Tiger Woods this morning at 1.3. I have.


For today's bet let's cover the probability that the stable I like least do best at Ascot. Presumably Murtagh can be trusted to pick the right horses. I like this market – there's usually trading/hedging opportunities.


£20 Murtagh top jockey Royal Ascot 5/4




Barking Bets” (Banked £350/Current bank £1414)
(I've banked another £150 and upped stakes to £140. Hopefully it won't be another 6 weeks before we bank again!)


There to be a penalty shootout at Euro 2008 £140 at 1.24
Dutch O'Brien and Stoute top Ascot trainer £140 at 1.31
Tennis Tursunov beat Lu £140 at 1.24
Tennis Gasquet beat Rochus £140 at 1.12
Tennis Azarenka beat Rezai £140 at 1.15

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Sunday 14th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£971– 3 bets running)


My match betting not exactly good on here so far. At least Spain wrapped up the group, and Tiger is on course.


Salisbury hosts a decent listed sprint today, and maybe Borderlescott can finally land a listed race. I was worried about his draw initially but the pace is high and I can see them drifting across, potentially causing problems for those behind. Swiss Franc has decent form behind Fat Boy and Henrythenavigator. I'd make the two of them more like 66% dutched rather than the 60% or better currently available. Hopefully Borderlescott will drift as layers want to get him based on past record at this level and the draw. Most of the rest are readily opposable, and I'll take on the Channon horse.


Salisbury 3:35 £20 Dutch Borderlescott and Swiss Franc at 4/6+




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1564)

(29/31 for the last fortnight. I think I'll aim to not play today and so be able to bank something and up stakes.)



Saturday, June 14, 2008

Saturday June 14th

£500 Challenge Bet” (£954– 4 bets running)


A quick update on the in-play bets.


US Open
Woods is looking Ok, Donald hanging on and Cink not entirely done yet. I'm looking at small hedges on Ogilvy and Karlsson but in no rush.


Spain win group
Spain win today and that should be job done.


Romania not to finish bottom, and to qualify
Romania very unlikely to finish bottom of group – they'd need Italy/France to draw which would suit neither AND be thrashed by Holland. Whether Holland ease up and allow them to qualify who knows. They are 1.8 to qualify as it stands. The more circumspect amongst you could take insurance on that part of bet.


Name the finalists
The name the finalists should still provide a run for your money, and though Germany and Italy have done nothing for the bet, both could have a say yet. How about a small hedgeon Croatia/Romania at 80s!


Racing not very exciting today, and the sort of day in the past where I've played like a fool and switched the laptop off at the end of it wondering how I could have bet like such a twat.


So, let's stick with the football. Greece looked horrible first game. Then again, so did Russia. And these first games haven't proven great indicators of the second game. On the other hand the market has massively overreacted. Greece should be much shorter in my book (and were prior to the first game), to get something from the game.


£20 Greece +0.5 at 1.75




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1537)

(18/19 so far this week. It would be nice to bank some money so I'm treading warily on what I tend to think is the worst day of the week for these type of bets.)

  1. Sandown Dutch Corrybrough and Tajdeef £120 at 1.22

Friday, June 13, 2008

Friday 13th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£954– 4 bets running)


The Croatian fans were singing “Deutschland Auf Widersehen” yesterday. Every gambler I know is opinionated beyond arrogance – or as Danny Baker would have it “Opinions on everything; often wrong; always certain.” Not surprising really, when the job means you make so many decisions – contrarian ones usually. However, alongside their cold blooded, logical side, every gambler I know also has a superstitious side. Mine, and I'm not alone in this, is a wariness of the sin of hubris. Whenever I say anything positive about my gambling I immediately fear the gods of gambling will be listening and punish me with a withering losing streak.


So, for me the Croatian fans might just as well have been begging the gods to meet the Germans again in the semis, where they'll be beaten. On penalties.


Croatia put a spanner in my daily bet yesterday. However, as I said their match price was silly and I happily admit I played them as a hedge and so have already covered my stake on the finalists market. Sorry not to have advised that yesterday, or indeed just put up Croatia to win as I was originally going to do, before my supposedly cast-iron opinions faltered!


No bet today.



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1395)

(The tennis turned out OK, but then I threw in a stinker at Haydock.)

.

  1. Tennis Blake beat Beck £120 at 1.20

  2. Tennis Wickmayer beat South £120 at 1.35

  3. 3:00 Market Rasen Georgian King £120 at 1.30

  4. Rugby Union – All Blacks beat England £120 at 1.11

  5. Rugby League – St Helens beat Bradford £120 at 1.09


Thursday, June 12, 2008

Thursday 12th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£974– 4 bets running)


Some of the prices for the Euro matches have moved far too much on the basis of one one match. The Czech/Portugal game yesterday and the Croatia/Germany game this evening for two. I'm very hesitant to oppose the moves though. In fact my bet for the day will work on the basis that the probable finalists can be whittled down to just 5 – based on what we've seen so far. I like the name the finalists market this tournament, because of the way the draw has been designed, and getting 1.8 for the obvious 5 looks a good bet to me – with hedging possibilities on possible spoilers – say Croatia or Sweden.


£20 Dutch following teams in “name the finalists” market

Germany/Portugal

Holland/Italy/Spain

6 bets at combined odds of 1.8.




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1452)

(A couple more winners yesterday – that's 9/9 for the week. This feels great, but is of course what you actually need to do! There are a couple of maidens at Newbury that look possible, but grade 1 tracks the sort of place where some of the unknown quantities could be useful so late market info essential)


  1. Tennis Roddick beat Fish £120 at 1.14

  2. Tennis Safarova beat Parra Santoyna £120 at 1.11 (in-play as I write and struggling!)

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Weds 11th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£994– 3 bets running)


Seasoned campaigners look away now, I'm back on the golf.


Most of this is pretty obvious so I won't waste your time with the reasoning.


Woods £10 win at 7/2

Donald £2.50 ew at 33/1

Cink £5 place at 7/1




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1398)

(A good day – all the tennis won, bar Cibulkova who sensibly withdrew a point from defeat in the first set! A horse winner aw well and fund reaches new high. Too busy looking at the Nottingham jackpot to trawl through the tennis, but there are three possible races at Beverley later.)


Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Tuesday June 10th

£500 Challenge Bet” (£994– 3 bets running)


As slipperytoad says – there I was Derby day, bases loaded, only needing a single to win the World Series. A sacrifice bunt would have done the trick. And I strike-out, not even swinging. Jim Bolger won't be getting any congratulations cards from me that's for sure. I obviously should have hedged on the damned horse though.


Anyway, I'm back refreshed from a nice break in sunny Dorset. A friend showed me how to fish for mackerel. It's amazingly complicated. What you do is go to the beach, throw a line in the water, reel it in and kill the five mackerel that have kindly leapt onto the hooks for you. Most obliging of them, and they're beautiful barbecued!

I could play the football tonight, and may yet. Greece look slightly too long, and perhaps we could play at +0.5 or lay Sweden.

Spain look hyped short, but I have to say Russia were rubbish in qualifying and I couldn't play them here. We have Spain to win the group anyway, so regardless of whether I get sucked in or not later, no bet for here.


Romania did Ok first match, so that bet remains in play – would have liked them to have beaten France though to be honest, I saw that as their easiest game.



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1257)

(Let's get this going again. Another week passes by without banking any profits – tiresome, but I remain optimistic.Probably too many matches here, but first rounds are where the most mis-matches are, and the most tanking/injury withdrawals/cheating!)


  1. Weber tennis – Blake beat Phau £120 at 1.14

  2. Stella Tortoise – Gonzalez beat Bloomfield £120 at 1.15

  3. Stella Tortoise – Malisse beat Evans £120 at 1.11

  4. Warsaw – Monaco beat Janovicz £120 at 1.14

  5. Warsaw – Robredo beat Przsizny £120 at 1.12

  6. Barcelona – Kirilenko beat Osterloh £120 at 1.10

  7. Barcelona – Cibulkova beat Cohen-Aloro £120 at 1.16


Saturday, June 07, 2008

Saturday 7th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£982– 3 bets running)


The fund looking rather healthy after yesterday. The initial aim of the £500 challenge bet was to show that betting conservatively, you could double your money over a year. Obviously doubling £500 is no big deal, but I chose that sum because that was how I started all those years ago, and because a friend who knew nothing about gambling wanted to dabble with a minimal amount. If you'd used a bigger fund and staked proportionally as I did, then I trust you can see the merit.


Now, I realise one of you is waiting to charge into my Derby longshot but I'm actually not betting on the race today. Look Here has provided me with doubles running onto 5 horses – Kandahar Run, Tajaweed, Dr Freemantle, Casual Conquest and Tartan Bearer. The doubles on Dr Freemantle and particularly Kandahar Run are dribble inducing so they're the ones I'll be cheering. The only horse I really fear is Curtain Call (along with the dark shadow O'Brien's horses cast over all my racing bets).


If I was to price the race up this morning I think I'd go 13/2 each of 7. That means Dr Freemantle and Tajaweed would be the remaining “value” in the race. Then again, if you simply asked me for who I thought would win I'd say Tartan Bearer.


So, not much help. Sorry. Go Henry go!


Instead I'll head for Euro 2008 and our first match bet.


My ratings for internationals are probably not as robust as my league ratings, but I have Turkey at 55% to get something out of tonight's game against an over-rated Portugal. Ronaldo could make that look silly but I'll still play.


Turkey £20 +0.5 Asians at 5/4



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1240 – 2 inrunning, unaccounted)

(Nothing yesterday – not today)


I'm taking a break Sunday/Monday whatever happens in the derby – back next week.

Friday, June 06, 2008

Friday 6th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£837– 4 bets running)


It looks like a cracking race for the Oaks. I've settled on three. Lush Lashes has looked a very good horse the last twice and the experience will be useful – there's some Irish challengers who look high on potential but low on street suss. Michita was very impressive in her trail and I've always been a fan of the downhill trials. In contradiction to that I'll complete the portfolio with a horse who was all at sea round the bend at Lingfield – Look Here – in the hope she won't repeat the mistake and plug on late!


In the Coronation Cup it's easy to see that Getaway is a rotten price on bare form. Sometimes though you just have to go with your eyes, and to me he looked like taking top order this year, and I've never been much of a fan of Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain, Red Rocks and Papal Bull.


Oaks

£10 Lush Lashes 3/1+

£5 Michita 12/1

£2.50 ew Look Here 40/1


Coronation

Getaway £20 win at 11/8 or better



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1240 – 2 inrunning, unaccounted)

(Another good day yesterday – only the one loss this week – though from only 10 bets. I could do Federer but as we have him to reach final above, will sit it out. Could also dutch Getaway and Soldier of Fortune, but not sure that's the sort of race to include in this. So no obvious bets today yet.)


Thursday, June 05, 2008

Thursday 5th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£877– 2 bets running)


Let's do a couple of Euro 2008 bets. This looks a remarkably open tournament. I have positions on a few countries but can't see much of value in the outright market. However there are two group bets we can get involved in.


Spain look rock solid to win Group D against three moderate evenly-rated teams who are likely to take points off each other. Expect Spain to blow their chances as usual later in the competition but winning this group shouldn't be beyond even them.


I had an early bet on Romania to win the whole thing, before they were handed the dead duck slot in the group of death. However, there's reason to think they could do Ok here. Italy and France look to be fading, and Holland didn't beat them in the qualifying. 7/2 to qualify looks too long, but I am particularly attracted to around Evens on them not to finish bottom.



£20 Spain to win Group D at 5/6 or better

£15 Romania to not finish bottom Group C at Evens

£5 Romania to qualify from Group C at 7/2



Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1156)

(A good day yesterday and in profit for the week. There are a couple of other possible races at Newton Abbot today.)


  1. Dutch Germany and Croatia to win Group B £120 at 1.17

  2. Newton Abbot 4:30 Dutch front two £120 at 1.25

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Weds 4th June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£877– 2 bets running)



I'll be spending today on the Oaks/Derby and Euro 2008, so no bet today, but should have a few to make up for it from tomorrow.




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1061)

(Djokovic fine and a Ripon bet helped me inch back. There are some possible races this afternoon, but I'm finding the market is having a big part to play in my final decision making, particularly as the races involved are often maidens and sellers.)


  1. Kuznetsova beat Kinepi £120 at 1.10


Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Tuesday 3rd June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£877– 2 bets running)



Gubbed in a photo yesterday. I was going to suggest a dutch at Ripon this afternoon, but it's apparently raining heavily there at the moment – so no bet today.


I'll probably play the placepot – a small rollover and desperate ground appeal.




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1011)

(The bet I put here won OK – shame I included my daily bet in here as well! Not at all the start to the week we could have done with. Tennisinsight still appears down which is worrying.)


1. Djokovic beat Gulbis £120 at 1.12



Monday, June 02, 2008

Monday 2nd June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£897– 2 bets running)



A possible bet today but only if the going remains good, and with thunderstorms forecast that may be unlikely.


And it's a seller sprint at Leicester – hardly a phrase to warm the cockles of a gambler's heart.


Still the front one is the only horse that could be labelled a winner in the field and the secodn favourite looks his only realistic opponent. I'd be somewhere between 60 and 66% the two – we should be able to get them for 55-60%


2:30 Leics Dutch Doubtful Sound/Avertitop £20 at 4/6 or better.





Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1100)

(The last two weeks the strike rate has been around 80% - which is good enough to just about break even – but we need to be over 85% for this to work. I need to show more discretion for sure)


Tennis bets proving problematic as the website I use for form has been down for two days.


So just a racing bet today.


  1. Naas 3:40 Dutch Tax Free/Contest/Snaefell and Loan Express £120 at 1.25

Sunday, June 01, 2008

Sunday 1st June

£500 Challenge Bet” (£897– 2 bets running)


A very good evening – the fat lady sung, and greyhound dug deep, and as if that wasn't enough my favourite guilty pleasure warbled a song or two including a lyric that could easily apply to my move.


“LA's fine the sun shines all the time,

And the feeling is laid back.

Palm trees grow and the rents are low

But you know I keep thinking about making my way back.

I'm New York City born and raised

But nowadays I'm lost between two shores.

LA's fine but it aint home

New York's home but it aint mine no more.”


I think I'll have a day off today.




Barking Bets” (Banked £200/Current bank £1070)

(Was looking good yesterday with a couple of races added in, and then Soderling collapsed like a girl in the Bigg Market after 10 barcardi breezers).


No bets today. And so another hopeless week. Not losing any money though, so will keep plugging away.