Football 30 December

Just in case anyone does wander over here before the new year, I keep looking at Spurs price today against Liverpool in disbelief.

It's now 9/4 on betfair. 6/4 would be about the longest I could go.

My boots are on.

Xmas etc

I'm winding down now and will be in and out over the Xmas period, so I think I'll pack up shop on here now until returning refreshed in the New Year.

I fully expect Kauto Star to win the King George though haven't backed him. I have backed three in the Welsh National - Bob Bob Bobbin, Simon and Kinburn - hardly original choices!

Other than that - festive greetings to all and see you in the New Year.

Racing 16th Dec

Ascot 12:35
Tamarinbleu Evens
Crozan 3/1
Briery Fox 7/1
It Takes Time 11/1

These are disappointing horses in the main - exactly what these races were designed for. It's only because of my dislike of the others that I'm drawn to a punt on Briery Fox.

Briery Fox 3pts win at 11/1



Ascot 1:10
See You Sometime 8/1
Graphic Approach 8/1
Harris Bay 8/1
Copsale Lad 8/1
Cornish Sett 11/1
Iris Royal 11/1
Lacdoudal 14/1
Ardaghey 20/1
Fork Lightning 20/1
Windsor Boy 20/1
Backbeat 25/1

An open race. The track has definitely looked to be favouring front runners since the revamp. I'm in with Pricewise - hope the prices haven't gone.

See You Sometime 4pts win at 14/1



Ascot 1:40
Tarlac 7/1
Tipperary All Star 8/1
Kings Quay 8/1
Overstrand 9/1
Acambo 9/1
Well Mounted 9/1
Victram 11/1
Pilca 11/1
Premier Dane 33/1
Desert Air 33/1
Pirate Flagship 33/1
Prime Contender 33/1

I have this much more open than the market and two at the bottom have been interesting me all week - I'm on ante post at nice prices, but also topped up this morning so there's still juice there.

Kings Quay 3pts at 12/1
Pilca 2pts ew at 20/1
half pt rev fc


Ascot 2:10
Mighty Man Evens
Neptune Collonges 6/1
Blazing Bailey 9/1
Fire Dragon 11/1
Irish Wolf 11/1

Legitimate favourite, but a nice ew shape considering I'm not keen on Neptune on the ground, and think Jonjo's stable is under a cloud. I'll play despite my prices not shouting at me.

Blazing Bailey 2.5pts ew at 11/1


I'll probably piddle about at Haydock, keeping Sue Smith on-side as always and will also have a go at the Lingfield class 2 race, discussion of which can be found at TRF as usual.

Racing 15th December

Ascot 2:35
Natal Evens
Briareus 5/2
Harmony Brig 9/1
Royal Shakespeare 14/1
Knight Legend 16/1

Prices look about right, but Briareus was part of my huge treble last year and has remained firmly in my stable ever since, so I expect I'll back him late on - especially should he drift as looks likely.


Ascot 3:10
Mambo Des Mottes 4/1
Made In Montot 4/1
Bambi de Lorme 8/1
Aleron 9/1
Pass Me A Dime 12/1
My World 12/1
Cossack dancer 12/1
Jericho 111 14/1

Tricky race. I'll have to play Aleron, and may play a couple of drifters to small stakes nearer the time if the betfair odds allow.

Aleron 4pts win at 16/1



Wolverhampton 3;20
Millville 5/2
Alpine Reel 3/1
Velvet Heights 5/1
Sweet Indulgence 5/1
Bahar Shumaal 6/1

Strictly on prices I should be playing the front two. I think I'll wait until later though. In particular Corals going longest about Alpine Reel is worrying.

Weekend Football 15th and 16th Dec

Friday

Luton 5pts beat Southend at 5/6


Saturday

Leicester 5pts beat Barnsley at 10/11

Preston 5pts beat Plymouth at 4/5

Rotherham (away) 5pts beat Cheltenham at 5/6

Doncaster 5pts beat Yeovil at 11/10

Racing 14th December

Exeter 1:10
Kock de la Vesvre 5/2
Out the Black 4/1
Naunton Brook 4/1
Keltic Bard 9/1
Keepatem 12/1

I respect thefave but am going to have a thump at the stand-out price and hope the going isn't too bad.

Out The Black 7pts win at 7/1


Exeter 2:10
Silencio 11/2
Private Bee 11/2
Mith Hiull 11/2
Hawridge Star 11/2
Devito 9/1

Tight little race with a couple of season debutants from big stables. I'll wait until nearer the time.

Racing December 13th

Newbury 2:25
Tanterani 7/2
Kerstino Two 5/1
The Outlier 5/1
Latimers Place 6/1
Wild is the Wind 5/1
Mr Dow Jones 11/1
Hirvine 11/1

The prices look about right in a tricky race. I'll sit tight until nearer the time and see how the market goes.

Mid-week Football

As is the norm for on here, we're after Arsenal again!

Wigan 5pts beat Arsenal 4/1

Racing 12th December

Let's hope today's horses aren't as slow as Brandy Wine yesterday!

Sedgefield 2:20
Calfraz 7/2
Circassian 8/1
Lord Rosskit 8/1
Chickapeaky 8/1
Tomenoso 8/1
Spring Breeze 10/1

Very strange to see John Forbes favourite and I'm still scratching my head over it. It certainly makes my tissue look a bit strange, and my decision pretty easy.

Calfraz 6pts win at 5/1 guaranteed



Sedgefield 2:50
Bongo Fury 5/4
King of the Arctic 5/1
Do L'enfant d'eau 9/1
Ela Re 14/1
Incas 16/1

Bongo looks a legitimate fave here, and the price fair against some very moderate horses.

Bongo Fury 5pts win at 5/4

Racing Monday 11th December

Snorkels at the ready.

Ayr 2:25
Brandy Wine 2/1
Hugo de Grez 2/1
See You There 5/1
Trisons Star 6/1

An interesting slog through the mud. Hugo de Grez is back on form and taking advantage of not having won for 4 years. His usual form still lingers in my mind though so hardly have him as a solid favourite. Brandy Wine may not be that well handicapped but conditions will suit and Lungo's horses could hardly be healthier. If this ends up the slog it threatens to be, that could be the crucial factor.

The prices settle it for me either way.

Brandy Wine 8pts win at 5/2

Racing - Dec 9th

Some of you will be pleased to know that all racing will be found on here from now on!

Cheltenham 12:20
Tritonix 7/4
katchit 9/4
Pommerol 6/1
Risk Runner 20/1
Peacock 20/1
Zariyan 20/1

The front two are solid, but I've always kept Doumen on my side and see little reason to change now.

Pommerol 3pts win at 8/1


Cheltenham 12:55
Kalca Mome 4/1
Darby Wall 11/2
baby Run 7/1
Kelrev 9/1
Jacks Craic 10/1
Tysou 11/1
Marked Man 12/1
Bohemian Spirit 12/1
Green Belt Flyer 20/1

I like the front two in a "lesser of evils" race, but can't get excited about the prices. May play to small stakes late on.


Cheltenham 1:30
Black Jack Ketchum 1/2
Blazing Bailey 3/1

This may be the day to oppose Black Jack, in sticky ground first time out conceding weight to a seriously tough horse.

Blazing Bailey 3pts win at 7/2


Cheltenham 2:05
Don't Push It Evens
Mr Pointment 4/1
Senorita Rumbalita 9/1
Aztec Warrior 9/1
Best Profile 20/1
Heez a Dreamer 20/1

Looks a cracking race. I've been having a great season with novice chasers, but I admit this is a bit of a hit and hope against a solid fave.

Aztec Warrior 3pts at 16/1


Cheltenham 2:40
Ross River 11/2
Bannow Strand 11/2
Reveillez 6/1
Taranis 7/1
Exotic Dancer 8/1
Hasty Prince 11/1
Thisthatandtother 16/1
Cerium 20/1
Tikram 16/1
Butlers cabin 25/1

My prices may have gone a bit astray after Copsale was pulled out, but my approach remains the same. I'm not overly keen on Taranis nor Exotic Dancer and am happy with my ante post wagers on Ross River and Bannow Strand, and luckily only did Copsale after the final decs. On this morning's prices Bannow Strand remains nicely priced.

Bannow Strand 4pts win at 8/1

Football 8 December

(sorry for lack of racing at the moment - on-going discussions with escorial.)

Coventry 5pts beat Burnley 13/10

Brentford (!) 5pts beat Tranmere 9/4

Crewe 5pts beat Nottm Forest 15/8

Grimsby 5pts beat Shrewsbury 13/10

Torquay (!) away 5pts beat Hereford 9/2

Football 5th December

(No golf this week, in case anyone is wondering).

Brighton 5pts beat Swansea 7/5

Hartlepool (away) 5pts beat Notts Co 11/4

Torquay (save me!) 5pts beat Wrexham 6/4


No racing today, though there is an interesting discussion of the 3:00 Southwell on

www.theracingforum.co.uk

under the lays and plays section.

Racing - Sunday December 2nd

Tough day yesterday.

Warwick 3:10
King Bee 5/4
Jaloux Destruval 11/2
Curly Spencer 11/2

Very strong on the favourite who should be able to boss this. All the others are unappealing.

King Bee 8pts win at 6/4

Racing 2nd December

Sandown 1:30
Cousin Nicky 2/1
Kipsigis 4/1
Bens Turn 11/2
Legally Fast 7/1
Two Miles West 12/1
Beare Necessities 20/1

I couldn't help but notice what a terrible record Alan King has at Sandown. That's interesting given the horses he's running here today. Ben's Turn would look short solely on that basis. Cousin Nicky has to be opposed at the prices.

Kipsigis 4pts win at 11/2
legally Fast 4pts win at 11/1

Sandown 2:05
My Way de Solzen Evens
Fair Along 6/4
New Little Bric 9/1

In my head I have My Way a shade shorter and Fair Along a shade longer (the going mainly.) However, Fair Along is in my 'stable' (as are 4 other horses running today), and I won't be deserting him.

Fair Along 5pts win at 2/1

Sandown 2:35
Kauto Star 4/6
Voy Per Ustedes 4/1
Central House 9/1

One to watch!

Sandown 3:10

Started pricing this up and surrendered in frustration. Personally I'll be backing Ellway Prospect who did us a real turn at a big price last time out. That said this looks short enough and he's a tough ride, so no recommendation. I'll probably play the two out of the handicap as well as big ew prices to small stakes.

Sandown 3:40
Simon 5/1
Ladalko 6/1
Tanas River 7/1
Tribal venture 7/1
Wild is the Wind 7/1
Nitrat 11/1
Fork Lightning 16/1

Not a fan of most of these, so selections pick themselves really.

Simon 5pts win at 17/2
Tribal Venture 4pts win at 12/1

Wetherby 1:20
According to Pete 3/1
Into the Shadows 9/2
Covent Garden 7/1
Euro American 11/1
Ashton Lad 11/1
Totally Scottish 11/1
Imtihan 20/1
Its Blue Chip 20/1

I'm a big fan of According to Pete and he ran really well at Cheltenham, caught chasing too fast a pace. My prices force me elsewhere though.

Covent Garden 3pts win at 12/1
Euro American 3pts win at 22/1

Wetherby 2:55
Royal Rosa 11/8
L'Antartique 13/8

No fan of the favourite. L'Antartique's been running well enough.

L'Antartique 5pts at 2/1

Wetherby 3:25
Silver Knight 7/2
Elvis Returns 5/1
Jungle Jinks 6/1
Harrovian 11/1
Mount Clerigo 11/1
Kerry Lds 12/1
Darinas Boy 12/1
Grattan Lodge 20/1

I was taken with Elvis last time out, until stamina gave out.

Elvis Returns 7pts win at 10/1

Racing - December 1st

Sandown - how disappointing. Three Nicholls hotpots, representing a 3/1 treble but not very opposable all the same. The dominance of this stable is becoming a betting problem, and this said by someone who's enjoyed several years of success following them.

Exeter 1:40
Tidal Fury 5/4
Buena Vista 3/1
Tora Bora 4/1
Dream Falcon 16/1
Bororoa 25/1

Take your pick with Tidal Fury. Timeform say he will stay 2 and a half miles, Mordin says he won't. With going and distance doubts about Buena Vista first time up as well, I like the ones with decent course form, at the prices.

Tora Bora 4pts win at 5/1
Dream Falcon 1pt ew at 40/1

Exeter 2:15
Wee Anthony 6/4
Ranelagh Grey 3/1
Doc Row 4/1
Torche 9/1

Ranelagh Grey is supposed to be better fresh, so Wee Anthony should probably confirm form. Doc Row's weak this morning, and I'm not normally one for topweights in slogs, but.

Doc Row 4pts win at 6/1

Weekend Football 2 December

Fortified by Fulham's success (felt a bit sad not to be there actually - I was a season-ticket holder for quite a few years, until Loftus Road interruptus and full-time gambling put Saturdays out of reach). Digressing I read a lot about what's gone wrong with Pricewise's Tom Segal. My own pet theory is the success of Reading FC has meant he's taken his eye off prize.

Middlesborough 5pts beat Man Utd 11/2 and possibly bigger

Portsmouth 5pts beat Villa 13/10

Sheff Utd 5pts beat Charlton at 13/10

Leicester 5pts beat Sheff Weds at 13/10

Rotherham 5pts beat Yeovil at 5/4

November - Summary of blog to date

Let's get this out of the way now, as there's decent racing to concentrate on Friday and Saturday.

Racing (all)
Points out: 475
Points in: 541
% returns: 114%
(Racing is the core business but has only recently been on here as it used to be on www.escorialracing.com - still is, but subscription only. As such the points should begin to build up significantly compared to last year.)


Football (all)
Points out: 1273
Points in: 1372
% returns: 108%
(Football season 2006/7. I have managed to corrupt my data for the blog on this one. Instead of ploughing back through the results, this is all the football betting to date. My own real bets for this season are virtually identical to the ones posted here, so my current percentage returns of 126% will apply here to within a couple per cent - a figure almost certainly unsustainable.)


Golf
Points out: 351
Points in: 298
% returns 83%
(We're beginning to get somewhere here. My co-investor and I busted our first bank. However our secodn bank has been growing way beyond our dreams. In fact it may even wipe out the losses of the first bank soon!).


Others
Points out: 74
Points in: 270
% returns: 297%


ALL
Points Out: 2202
Points In: 2425
% returns: 111%
(Regulars will know that my target is to grind out my 10% profit on a fairly conservative staking strategy. So after a tough few months all is good, and personally my big horse racing treble a month ago - unmeasured here - makes it even better.)

Racing - Weds 29th November

A strange day today, with three small field chases within half an hour where I don't like the favourite. (save on the treble!)

Ayr 2:00
Wild Cane Ridge 11/8
Mister McGoldrick 7/4
Ransboro 10/3

Probably the best of the three faves, if his jumping stands up, and that is an if should Mister McGoldrick get into a rhythm. Ransboro is of course weighted down with the world's greatest jockey but adds more interest. There's very little difference between dutching the two or laying the fave.

Lay Wild Cane Ridge 5pts at Evens (including commission).

Ayr 2:30
Percussionist 5/4
Harmony Brig 13/8
King Revo 7/1

The notion of backing Percussionist at odds-on is very unappealing. Again could simply be a layer, but I think at the prices I'll chance the fitness of Harmony Brig.

Harmony Brig 5pts win at 2/1

Plumpton 2:10
Avitta 13/8
My World 2/1
Alphabetical 7/1
Premier Estate 7/1

Another horse who I'd have down as ungenuine trading close to odds on. Again having to chance fitness on my selection.

My World 5pts win at 5/2

Nedbank Challenge Golf

Decent ew terms in this otherwise pointless event.

Immelman 2pts ew at 10/1
Di Marco 0.5pt ew at 20/1

Mid Week Football 28/29 Nov

A couple of these are shooting at the stars!

Stoke 5pts beat Cardiff 11/8

Aston Villa 5pts beat Man City 10/11 or as close to Evens as can get

Bolton 5pts beat Chelsea 9/2 or as close to 5/1 as can get

Fulham 5pts beat Arsenal 5/1 or as close to 6/1 as can get

Racing - Sunday 26th November

Before settling down to watch Man Utd attempt to land a 5-timer for me, there's a few decent races.

Newbury 2:05
Denman 1/3
Snakebite 4/1

Ok - who's going to be stupid enough to oppose this one. Err, me!

Snakebite 4pts win at 11/2

Newbury 3:15
Manhattan Boy 2/1
Tessanora 5/1
Charmatic 6/1
Widely Accepted 14/1

Looks a legitimate fave. Given the ground it's probably best to miss the race, but I think I'll play.

Manhattan Boy 5pts win at 15/8 guaranteed.

Fontwell 1:15
Pablo Du Charmil 6/4
Penzance 3/1
Royal Shakespeare 3/1

The latter could well be a non runner so caution again. However, Penzance has been very disappointing so far over fences, whilst Pablo was very good first time out.

Pablo Du Charmil 6pts win at 15/8

Racing - Saturday 25th November

See the previous posting for the Hennessey. Glad I put it up last night as Pricewise chose Preacher Boy and last night's 20/1 has long since gone.

Newbury 1:35

Saintsaire 7/2
Island faith 4/1
Roofing Spirit 6/1
Locksmith 10/1
Bambi De Lorme 10/1
Kalca Mome 10/1
Jacks Craic 16/1
Green Belt Flyer 16/1

Another Saturday, another slew of remarkably short Nicholls runners! We had it off big time last year on Island Faith's first run of the year, and I'm loathe to desert him here - I expect I'll at least save. However, Roofing Spirit hurt us last Friday and I'm on a recovery mission.

Roofing Spirit 6pts win at 11/1

Newbury 3:15

Made in Montot 5/1
Gallant Approach 5/1
No Full 6/1
Big Rob 7/1
Butlers Cabin 7/1

My tissue looks a right mess compared to the books. It looks a race to swerve but my prices have got me betting much bigger than looks sensible.

No Full 5pts win at 10/1
Big Rob 5pts win at 14/1
half pt rev fc

Newbury 3:45

Afsoun 5/1
Sea The Light 5/1
Craven 5/1
Midas Way 5/1
Whispered Promises 11/1
Neevesou 11/1
Anemix 11/1
Iffy 12/1

No way into this - no bet.

Newcastle 3:00

Bob Bob Bobbin 3/1
Neptune Collonges 4/1
King Killone 5/1
AGlass in Thyne 12/1
Hautclan 12/1
Another Promise 16/1
Julius Ceaser 16/1
Fundamentalist 25/1

I'm a big fan of Bob Bob Bobbin and he can win this on his way to the Welsh National. Price not exciting though.

Bob Bob Bobbin 3pts win at 7/2
King Killone 2pts win at 6/1
Julius Caesaer 1pt win at 40/1

Newcastle 3:30

Straw Bear 5/2
Desert Quest 5/2
Noble Request 7/2
Arcalis 7/1

Straw Bear all the rage - looks too short now - I'll play the prices.

Desert Quest 4pts win at 3/1
Noble Request 4pts win at 9/2

Hennessey Tissue Friday Evening

Saturday 25th - Newbury 2:40

Turpin Green 7/1
State of Play 7/1
Montegermont 7/1
Idle Talk 7/1
Juveigneur 11/1
Vodka Bleu 11/1
Preacher Boy 12/1
Cornish Rebel 16/1
Ardaghey 20/1
Presenting Express 20/1
Parsons Legacy 25/1

I have my front four nicely tucked up in ante post vouchers so I'll be disappointed not to collect. Looking at the market right now if there's any juice left it looks to be on Idle Talk (who is easily my biggest winner) and Preacher Boy (with 16 runners the latter could look a good ew bet on a staying-on lightweight in possibly horrible conditions).

Idle Talk 4pts at 11/1

Preacher Boy 2pts ew at 20/1

Racing - Friday 24th November

Newbury 3:10

Lou Du Moulin Mas 9/4
Kerstino Two 4/1
Kick de la Vesvre 9/1
Desailly 9/1
Balladeer 9/1

Lou Du Moulin Mas' for the taking, except he remains something like 1-19 over fences, and so must be opposable. Kock De La Vesvre and Desailly need to bounc back so I'll side with the two in-form horses.

Kerstino Two 4pts win at 6/1+

Balladeer 2pts ew at 18/1 (quarter odds totalbet)

Weekend Football 25th November

An interesting set of matches this week.

Bolton 5pts beat Arsenal at 3/1 (as always!)

Colchester 5pts beat Southend at 10/11

Hartlepool 5pts beat Wycombe at 8/5

Rochdale 5pts beat Mansfield at 11/8

(Sunday) Man Utd 5pts beat Chelsea at 13/8

Casio Open Golf

I'll continue to surf the wave with Jeev Singh.

Singh 2.5pts ew at 12/1

Racing Weds 22nd November

Wetherby 2:00

Ela Re 5/1
King of the Arctic 5/1
Dead Mans Dante 6/1
Mr Prickle 6/1

A poor bunch. The trainerform's a worry, but I'll go with my price.

King of the Arctic 4pts win at 7/1

Chepstow 2:45

Blue Splash 5/4
Alfasonic 7/2
Chamacco 10/1
Mister Sher 12/1

Looks a solid enough fave to me. If Alfasonic needs the run odds against is fair.

Blue Splash 4pts win at 11/10

Lingfield 3:00

Daryal 7/4
San Antonio 4/1
Guru 11/2

Another legitimate fave. To explain to anyone new, my prices are skewed by contrariness against faves, especially in handicaps. So where they are priced as fair-priced faves, although they don't look like 'value' on my prices, my records show they are, and I bet accordingly.

Daryal 4pts win at 13/8

Aintree - Sunday Racing Nov 19th

Aintree 1:30

Shannons Pride 9/1
I Hear Thunder 9/1
Swansea Bay 10/1
Star Performace 10/1
Hakim 10/1
Neltina 12/1
Misterthetrixster 20/1
Bob The Builder 20/1
be My Better Half 20/1
Theatre Knight 20/1

I'll play my prices in an open looking race:

I Hear Thunder 3pts win at 16/1
Swansea Bay 3pts win at 16/1
Neltina 2pts win at 40/1

Aintree 2:00

Ursis 5/1
Ball O Malt 13/2
Accordello 9/1
Nobel 12/1
Dangerously Good 16/1
Ostfaani 16/1
Take a Mile 16/1
Aldirous 16/1
Euro American 20/1
Trouble at Bay 20/1
Verasi 25/1

One stand out on my prices (I see the RP agree with me, so the betfairmarket makers plainly know something we've overlooked.)

Ball O Malt 4pts win at 12/1

Aintree 2:35

Tanterari 13/2
Clan Royal 7/1
Dun Doire 11/1
Dunbrody Millar 12/1
Inca Trail 12/1
Nil Desperandum 14/1
Le Duc 16/1
Solar System 16/1
Bewleys Berry 20/1
Mckelvey 20/1
Undenaible 25/1
King Bee 33/1
Kings Glen 33/1

I'm with Pricewise on this one and took a small chunk on Dunbrody Millar 33s ante post, along with Tanterari. He could do with a winner, so here's hoping!

Dunbrody Millar 2pts ew at 20/1
Solar System 2pts win at 40/1

Aintree 3:10

No prices, but I'll stick with Backstage.

Backstage 4pts win at 4/1

Saturday 18th November - racing

Haydock 1:20
Kicks for Free Evens
Self respect 9/4
Bleak House 11/2
Indian Pipe Dream 20/1

Nothing against Kicks for Free but again the Nicholls horses are incredibly short. I'll have to oppose.

Self respect 4pts win at 11/4



Haydock 1:50
Kauto Star 7/4
Beef or Salmon 4/1
L'Ami 5/1
Kingscliff 6/1
Iris's Gift 11/1
Ollie Magern 12/1

Boy, you can turn yourself inside-out with the ifs and buts on this one. No bet right now.



Haydock 2:20
Jazz D'Estruval 7/1
Be Be King 7/1
Mephisto 9/1
Irish Wolf 9/1
Halcon Generladias 11/1
United 12/1
Two Miles West 12/1
Desert Tommy 12/1
Brankley Boy 12/1
Millennium Royal 20/1
Royal Emperor 20/1

Very tight. Nothing doing right now. I may play the low-weights closer to the off is the ground is looking bad.



Haydock 3:20
Launde 5/4
Roman Ark 3/1
Strike back 9/1

Launde may have it to do on ratings, but I like him here against disappointing types. Will wait on a drift though.



Ascot 1:05
Reveillez 5/1
Chilling Place 11/2
Mr Boo 6/1
Knowhere 7/1
Without a Doubt 8/1
Billyvoddan 9/1
Cerium 10/1
Medison 10/1
Hoo La Baloo 25/1

Think the market should be more compact than it is and so have bet accordingly.

Billyvoddan 3pts win at 14/1
Without a Doubt 3pts win at 14/1
Mr Boo 3pts win at 8/1
1pt in total combined fcs/trifecta.



Ascot 1:35
Hardy Eustace Evens
Mighty Man 3/1
Fire Dragon 9/1

No bet.



Ascot 2:05
Tysou 11/2
Andrea 6/1
Green Tango 13/2
Demi Beau 13/2
Madison Du Berlais 13/2
See You Sometime 12/1
Mister McGoldrick 20/1
Nyrche 20/1

I don't actually fancy any of these as it stands. Watching brief. No bet.



Huntingdon 3:00
Monkerhostin 7/4
Racing Demon 3/1
Thisthatandtother 3/1
Dempsey 9/1

I'm a huge fan of Monkerhostin and quite happy to take 2/1 here.

Monkerhostin 5pts win at 2/1

Friday 17th - Racing

Escorial just about to go subscription only, so I'll start putting my tissues up here.


Ascot 1:35
Nippy Des Mottes 9/4
All Star 5/2
Swing Bill 11/2
Flying Enterprise 6/1
Adopted Hero 14/1
Carthys Cross 16/1

Not overly excited the front two. Will take a punt at the Williams horse improving on its first run.

Flying Enterprise 4pts win at 9/1



Ascot 2:45
Bishops Bridge 3/1
Briscoe Place 5/1
Wiscalitus 5/1
Turgeonev 6/1
Another Joker 9/1
king Coal 9/1

Nothing doing at the moment, though if 8 line up I think I may play Another Joker each way.



Ascto 3:20
Lou Du Moulin Mas 5/1
Harrys Dream 5/1
King Barry 11/2
Harris Bay 11/2
Liverpool Echo 16/1
Kety Star 16/1
Meehan 16/1

Boy the front two look short. I've always liked the price of the stars of small stables, which makes this an obvious bet.

King Barry 4pts win at 15/2



Ascot 3:55
Tarlac 5/4
Sir Laughalot 11/2
Mohawk Star 7/1
Festive Chimes 9/1
fait le Jojo 16/1
nation State 16/1
Linnet 16/1

With Tarlac at 4/5 I must have priced this wrong - it's thrown up a couple of bets though - an Emma Lavelle tenderly handled horse, and one you need to forgive a run.

Sir Laughalot 4pts win at 8/1
Festive Chimes 4pts win at 18/1



Exeter 1:45
Roofing Spirit 13/8
Pass Me a Dime 7/2
Albert Mooney 7/2
Avas Delight 4/1

Albert Mooney is making the book here, and if he jumps like he did on his debut...

roofing Spirit 6pts win at 2/1 (and I may go in again if he drifts in the face of support for Albert).



Kelso 2:00
No prices, but I'll keep following Culcabock in the belief he's well handicapped, and in a race where an odds on favourite ensures decent each way terms.

Culcabock 3pts ew at 9/1

Weekend Football 18th November

A very strange trio this weekend.

A slew of matches almost made the list. I'll monitor the following:

Portsmouth, Reading, Birmingham, Hull, Orient, macclesfield, and Ipswich.


Luton 5pts beat Derby at 6/4

Brighton 5pts beat Tranmere at 13/10

Grimsby (away) 5pts beat Wycombe at 5/1

Wednesday 15th November - racing

Southwell 3:00
www.theracingforum.co.uk
has a discussion thread on this race in the Daily lays and plays section.
Dancing Mystery 4pts win at 9/2
Zowington 4pts win at 15/2
half pt rev fc



Hexham 2:20
Kinburn 4pts win at 3/1
Elvis returns 4pts win at 12/1

Folkestone Tuesday 14th Nov

Folkestone 2:10
Magical Legend 2pts win at 15/2
Magical Legend 2pts ew at 13/2
Magical Legend and Retief Goosen 2pts ew double

Up against a very solid fave, but I really like this second fave - a steadier pace at 2m and he could take advantage of any effects Bonchester Bridge may be feeling after his race Saturday. With 8 runners (fingers crossed), there's ew opportunities as well, though hard to get on. I ended up having to find a golfer for the ew double! If the inevitable non runner arrives, I'm keen enough on her chances to be Ok about it.

Hong Kong Open golf

An eclectic four against the field here:


Jeev Singh 1.5pt ew at 33/1
Dyson 1.5pt ew at 40/1
Buckle 1pt ew at 66/1
Pilkardis 1pt ew at 150/1

I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here

Usually a profitable event, though I doubt we'll equal last year's Thatcher-fest at 33/1.


Let's take an early position anyway.

Jason Donovan 5pts win at 7/2
(solid favourite, and the male favourite (Tufnell, Pasquali) is often given a terrific edit in a programme utterly dependent on editing. We'd best keep him on-side early on)

Toby Anstis 3pts win at 12/1
(will have his fans and presented himself very well - allegedly - on a terrible celebrity programme on channel 5 recently)

Lauren Booth 2pts top woman at 5/1
(Mylene Klass looks a terrible price - she's loathsome and attractive, a poisounous combination for voters - and makes the market here. Lauren Booth is a simple stab in the dark)


No longshots appeal this time. Probably not an event for trading, unlike Big Brother.
We'll watch for a bit and then possibly go in again.

Leicester races 13th Nov

2:10 Leicester
Water Taxi 5pts at 9/2
(weak this morning , priced at 3s - against a 4yo allowance horse that struggles to win, and an irish raider).


2:40 Leicester
Elegant Cutter 4pts at 5/1
(just playing the prices - had at 4/1 - pretty tight at front end of market, but not a very competitve race overall).

Cheltenham Sunday 12th Nov

A couple of small bets on a difficult day.


Cheltenham 2:45
Sweet Wake 5pts at 5/2
(getting a lot of weight from Detroit City - priced them both at 2s)


Cheltenham 3:20
Paulo Dancer 5pts at 13/2
(weak this morning, and be hard to concede weight to Imperial Commander, plus Wichita Lineman is supposed to be super-special - but priced at 4s so a must bet).

Racing - Saturday 11th November.

Cheltenham 1:30
Il Duce 5pts at 14/1
(a bit of a wild punt against Denman this, but his run against Turko looks under-rated)


Cheltenham 3:10
Calusa Charlie 1pt ew at 40/1
(an eyecatcher - priced at 20s so nothing to get excited about)


Cheltenham 3:45
Idle Talk 5pts win at 11/2
Run For Paddy 4pts win at 9/1
half point rev fc
(I'm expecting big things from Idle Talk this year, and our Scottish national hero looks too long as well - priced at 6s)


Wetherby 2:55
Culcabock 4pts win at 4/1
(backed last time when he was given a poor ride - still looks well handicapped)


Wetherby 3:25
Jungle Jinks 2pts ew at 20/1
(taking a big chance on the horse's well-being here).

Cheltenham Friday 10th November

Prices still on escorialracing.

Cheltenham 1:20
Darby Wall 3pts at 11/2
(I can't resist chasing my losses from last time it ran and fell here, and priced at 9/2)


Cheltenham 2:30
Oneway 3pts win at 8/1
Medison 4pts win at 6/1


A very quiet day, so I'll also add some mug doubles to live it up.
10 x half point doubles
Darby Wall
Cuan Na Grai
Armaturk
Royal Auclair
Openide

Football Matches 11 Nov

Back to a more sensible 3 matches this weekend, with the FA cup avoided.


Everton 5pts beat Villa at 5/4

Middleborough 5pts beat West Ham at 5/4

Luton 5pts beat QPR at 11/10

Racing Wednesday 8th November

Bangor 2:10
A Glass in Thyne 2pts win at 12/1
Briery Fox 2pts win at 12/1
Simon 2pts win at 12/1
(Priced all of these at 8/1 which is a little short against a solid fave, but Distant Thunder makes them small value on my tissue)


Lingfield 3:00
Cossack Dancer 5pts win at 15/8
Smokey Mountain 1pt win at 11/1
(Legitimate fave, although all the other runners could be said to have chances including the outsider)

Racing - Sat 4th November

Disappointing card at my home track, but plenty of action at Wincanton and Churchill Downs.

Wincanton 2:45
Petitjean 4pts win at 7/1
(priced at 5s - think the front two look too short)


Wincanton 3:20
Parsons Legacy 5pts win at 20/1
(Priced at 9s - and not alone - thoug very weak this morning)


Wincanton 3:55
Crow Wood 5pts win at 11/2
(Priced at 4s - conditions perfect and gets a load of weight from the hotpot)


Breeder Cup - Fillies and Mares
Satwa Queen 3pts ew at PMU
Honey Ryder 3pts win at 8/1
(Satwa Queen priced at 9/2 - slipped under radar, should place, already have ante post bet as well)


Breeders Cup Mile
Echo of Light 4pts at 9/1
(fair play - just a love bet)


Breeders Cup Turf
Cacique 5pts win at 9/2
TH Approval 3pts win at 11/1
(Hurricane Run helps make my book, priced Cacique at 7/2 - should love conditions).

Football matches 4 November

The ratings have thrown up 10 matches this week. And in a strange (and slightly worrying) turn of events, they have highlighted a lot of odds on home teams. Umm.


Fulham 5pts beat Everton at 9/5

Newcastle 5pts beat Sheff Utd at 5/6

Norwich 5pts beat Sunderland at 11/8

Preston 5pts beat Luton at 8/11

Crewe 5pts beat Port Vale at 5/4

Doncaster 5pts beat Orient at 4/5

Huddersfield 5pts beat Scunthorpe at 11/8

Boston 5pts beat Notts Co at 7/4

Hartlepool 5pts beat Barnet at 4/5

Swindon 5pts beat Hereford at 4/5

Haydock 2 November

You can still see the tissue for free at escorial - whilst you can I won't bother repeating it.

Here's the bets.

2:10 Culcabock 2pts win at 10/1
(looks favourably handicapped, and fairly priced. Not exactly a prolific winner though and a place bet probably more sensible for those who like that sort of thing!)


2:10 and 2:45
Culcabock and College Ace 2pts ew double.

Summary

Here's the end of month summary of profit and loss since start of blog:


Football
Points out 1148
Pounts in 1226
% returns 107%
(Looks like we've got over the World Cup blues.)


Football matches 2006/2007 season
Points out 341
Points in 407
% returns 119%
(Started off well. My fingers are firmly crossed for this one)



Golf
Points out 336
Points in 237
% returns 70%
(No reason to believe me, but remarkably I had Jeev Singh last week at 125/1, but for some reason didn't include him in my tips on here - typical, but suffice to say I'm happier now with the golf fund than at any other time this season!)


Racing
Points out 56
Points in 76
% returns 135%


Racing - jumps season 2006/7
Points out 109
Points in 83
% returns 76%
(early days)


Others
Points out 69
Points in 170
% returns 246%
(and we'll be able to add the Ryan Moore champion jockey winnings shortly)


All
Points out 1718
Points in 1791
% returns 104%

Huntingdon 1st November

Chilling Place's fall not a help yesterday!

Tissue for today's race:

Handy Money 5/2
Big Rob 5/2
Blairgowie 7/1
Spinaround 9/1

Not a competitive race for me, and I'm not a fan of Big Rob. The market tends to be though.

Handy Money 4pts win at 11/4

Tuesday 31st football

A couple of Championship matches to get stuck into.


Luton 5pts beat Burnley at 6/4

Preston 5pts beat Leeds at 5/6
(looks a big overreaction to Denis Wise to me).

Strictly Come Dancing

This is turning into a very interesting betting event (seriously!).

It looks like being the first time the professional dancers become significant vote catchers in their own right. Two in particular: Anton who partners the pretty hopeless Jan, and Brendan who has set up a pantomime duo with Claire (disguising the fact they are actually pretty good).

I can see these two pairs causing mayhem in the eviction voting for a while yet. I'll be laying Jan at odds on for eviction this week. The front three in the betting are all Ok and I'm onside with Emma and Mark, but they are nowhere near as good as the favourites of previous years, and all are vulnerable if the public voting is as skewed as I think. So I reckon there's a decent chance, if they maintain their current persona as the naughty/dirty couple, that Claire/Brendan could sneak the final. I've bought them at 3 on the spreads in case.

Tuesday 31st October

Tissue for Exeter 2:40

Racing Demon 4/1
Chilling Place 4/1
Dempsey 9/2
Impek 7/1
Hoo La Baloo 9/1
Jacks Craic 12/1

Was expecting 8s on Chilling Place, until the world jumped on board. Have to settle for a reduced bet at 6s. Ladbrokes going 7/1 about Jacks Craic was a headscratcher and an eye opener.


Chilling Place 6pts win at 6/1
Jacks Craic 2pts win at 16/1

Racing - Saturday 28th October

Plenty of bets - could be poor by tonight!

Newmarket 3:10
Bahia Breeze 3pts ew at 12/1
(nice ew shape to race with very short fave and plenty not sorted by race conditions.)


Ascot 1:10
Demi Beau 6pts win at 6/1
(As long as doesn't get caught in speed duel, looks good price against very short fave - priced at 4/1 personally).


Ascot 2:10
Ballycassidy 3pts win at 10/1
Zabenz 3pts win at 10/1
(will only bet if Ollie Magern runs as he makes the book for me)


Ascot 3:20
Enhancer 9pts win at 5/2
(as long as all four run).


Wetherby 2:20
Kinburn 4pts win at 10/3
(I have him in as fave at 11/4 over Roman Ark)


Wetherby 3;25
Iris Gift 3pts win at 8/1 (yes, I know, must be mad)
Royal Emperor 5pts win at 10/1
(hope he's primed for this, looks nicely weighted on a track that suits)


Wetherby 5:10
According to Pete 6pts win at 11/4
(looks a solid fave)

Football weekend 28th October

Seven matches this week.


Fulham 5pts beat Wigan at 11/10

Birmingham 5pts beat West Brom at 6/4

Hull 5pts beat Sunderland at 7/4

Leeds 5pts beat Southend at Evens

Gillingham 5pts beat Carlisle at 5/4

Bournemouth (away) 5pts beat Tranmere at 4/1

Hartlepool 5pts beat Darlington at 6/5

Lingfield 26th October

Lingfield 3:50
Antique 3pts win at 12/1 guaranteed
Khalua Kiss 3pts win at 14/1 guaranteed
(this looks a wide open event to me - I originally went 7/1 each of seven! - so am playing the prices)



Lingfield 4:20
Lake Toya 6pts win at 11/4
(looks the first legitimate fave of the year, just needs to be fit and well).

Cheltenham Weds 25th October

A nice winner yesterday - let's hope for more of the same.

Cheltenham 3:55
Darby Wall 8pts win at 9/2
(Irish raider, had as favourite on my tissue at 3/1 - glad to see Corals agree even if nobody else does!)


Cheltenham
Warpath 4pts win at 16/1
(Obviously not fancied by connections, expecting something more favourably weighted to improve, but I'm not keen on those expected to do so).


Cheltenham
Openide 4pts win at 4/1 (or as close as)
(Penalty and jumps low, but in what looks close to a match, 4/1 too big against a first timer, no matter how highly regarded)

Volvo Masters Golf

Last tournament of the season for Europe - thanks God.


Casey 1pt ew at 16/1
Stenson 1pt ew at 22/1
Dyson 1pt ew at 80/1

Cheltenham - Tuesday

I'm going to start putting my main horse racing bets up here, as well as escorialracing, where you can also get my tissue. It's my start of the jumps season today.

Cheltenham 2:45
Backstage 6pts win at 15/2
(that looks a mighty weight allowance, and priced at 9/2 against the two big stables)

Cheltenham 4:30
Sento 6pts win at 16/1
(will wait to check doesn't get upset in prelims, and obviously priced up wrong at 7/1, but looks too long)

Cheltenham 5:05
Magical Legend 4pts at 6/1
(being backed, the front two look far too short, and this drop back to 2m could be the key - priced at 9/2).

And with the quarter odds concession in play, I'm throwing a get rich quick 1pt ew treble at my three 'value' horses as well.

Break

It's the end of my flat season (and not a very good one at that!), and I'm taking a break for a bit to re-group for the jumps.

Back in a week.

Steve McLaren

Interesting markets around our qualification for Euro 2008.

Ladbrokes go a stand-out 1/2 that we still qualify. That seems about right.

Corals go 8/1 McLaren to leave his post in 2007.

Putting the two together is interesting. We play all our remaining qualifiers in 2007. It's all but unthinkable that McLaren would survive us not qualifying. Which makes that 8/1 look mighty big. Seems to me you can back them both and enjoy a free(ish) bet on McLaren leaving his post, or arb to suit yourself.

Of course, if we don't qualify and for some reason he kept his post we're in trouble. On the other hand, if we just qualify, or are struggling to qualify it's entirely possible he could be sacked or resign, and both parts of the bet could be landed. I see the latter as far more likely than the former.


MacLaren to leave his post in 2008 4pts at 8/1
England to qualify for 2008 8pts at 1/2

Strictly Come Dancing

A decent little earner last year, and slightly more enjoyable than the pantomime that is X Factor.

We've only seen the blokes and to be honest they were a sorry looking bunch. Unless the girls prove even worse they should have the upperhand. I know Darren Gough won last year but the supporting role of the bloke is much less inspiring than a female twirling around, and I'd have thought the women would win something like 2 out of every 3 showings of this.

A portfolio (aka backing half the field!):

Emma Bunton 2.5pts win at 4/1
Carole Smillie 2pts win at 16/1
Mark Ramprakash 2.5pts win at 6/1
Jan Ravens 1pt win at 75/1
Claire King 1pt win at 30/1
Matt Dawson 1pt win at 20/1



And Mica Paris looks vulnerable, not least to the reality TV curse, and could be on her way Saturday.

Mica Paris 3pts elimination at 100/30

Weekend Football - 14 and 16 Oct

The Preston price looks way out. Keane mania still rampant presumably.


Preston 5pts beat Sunderland at 11/8

Doncaster (away) 5pts beat Cheltenham at 12/5

Torquay 5pts beat Accrington at 6/5

Monday
Fulham 5pts beat Charlton at 11/10 (not that you should ever tip your own team)!

Mid-week Euro 2008

I just have to oppose England here. I'd have Croatia much shorter, but will save on 0-0.


Croatia 4pts at 9/4
No goalscorer 1pt at 13/2

Weekend football - Friday 6th/ Saturday 7th Oct

Hope you're not expecting any international bets!


Doncaster 5pts beat Oldham at 11/8

Mansfield 5pts beat Notts Co at 6/4



Not sure about the latter, as I've just backed Notts Co at 16/1 to win the league (along with Yeovil at 28/1 to win league one). Both look to be improving rapidly. These leagues are hopeless and last year proved how easy it is to get promoted on modest improvement.

Dunhill Golf

Not exactly original:


Howell 1pt ew at 20/1
Stenson 1pt ew at 20/1

Summary of profit/loss - October 2006

Here's the usual breakdown of progress since start of blog.


Football
Out: 1068pts
In: 1130pts
% returns: 105%


Football matches - this season
Out: 266pts
In: 324pts
% returns: 122%


Golf
Out: 326 pts
In: 237pts
%returns: 72%


Racing
Out: 56pts
In: 76pts
%returns 135%


Others:
Out: 66pts
In: 156 pts
% returns: 237%


Overall
Out: 1518pts
In: 1600pts
% returns: 105%


(Remember racing tips can be found at www.escorialracing.co.uk. It's been a tough season, but returns still running at 103%.)

Weekend Football 30th Sept

A fairly interesting spread of bets this week. I'm keen on Bolton, as usual.


Bolton 5pts to beat Liverpool at 3/1

Wolves (away) 5 pts to beat Cardiff at 100/30

Bradford 5pts to beat Tranmere at 11/8

Crewe 5pts to beat Carlisle at 5/4


also Charlton 1pt to beat Arsenal at 13/2 and 4pts on Asian handicaps at +1 at around 1.9 or better.




"Near bets" this week - (these are losing badly) - all away:
Sheff Weds to beat Sunderland
Wycombe to beat Accrington
Macclesfield to beat Hereford

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe

Here's the tissue for the big race. It's a real shame the big ones have scared off all the medium-sized fishes.

Shirocco 5/2
Deep Impact 7/2
Hurricane Run 5/1
Rail Link 7/1
Price 9/1
Sixties Icon 9/1

It looks likely there isn't even going to be the dead 8. How disappointing. Fabre on the front page of the Racing Post is bewailing the lack of pace in the race but I'd have thought that would actually be against Deep Impact more than his three. Shirocco looks the least complicated and I've been a fan all season. I'm happy to get the last of the 3s. I have Rail Link on-side at 20s although I did ditch half of it after this trial. Sixties Icon looks a touch big at 20s (assuming he runs!) so we'll finish off the portfolio with him.

Shirocco 4pts win at 3/1
Sixties Icon 2pts win at 20/1 (betfair)

WGC Golf

(No football bets midweek, though we will keep an eye on "near bets" Bury and Millwall)


Golf.

Tiger Woods 3pts win at 5/1
Trevor Immelman 1pt ew at 40/1

Weekly review

Horses:
On Saturday three horses from "my stable" were running. This is simply a list of horses I really like, usually because they've won for me, and I indulge in betting them throughout the season regardless of price etc. There's never more than 5 horses in the stable at any one time, and it is a useful way of keeping a lid on any sentimentality I have within racing whilst at the same time not losing sight of my love for the sport. Also, some of my best wins have come from this somewhat silly approach. Atavus some years ago, and Sergeant Cecil last year for example.

On Saturday I combined Zowington (33s), Court Masterpiece (6s) and Fullandby (12s) in each way doubles and trebles for another success for the approach. I recommend it wholeheartedly as an adjunct to the normal more rigid numbers-based approaches.


George Washington:
Yes, I did price GW as 5/1 on my tissue. As a result I went in heavy on Proclamation backed up by Court Masterpiece and even Araafa near the off. Obviously my price was wrong, and I got my arse kicked, but on the whole I think I'd do the same again next time. One thing it is worth learning and I've said this to myself before. Often you see warnings to take whatever O'Brien says as hype for the stud, and I must admit I tend to take against it myself. However, in reality he does seem to be on the level when he really commits to a horse.


Twiston-Davies
Last year I went on holiday in Scotland and managed a nice fun day out at Perth races. I wasn't betting, more eating ice cream and mug-punting fivers. However, I noticed that Twiston-Davies had sent some pretty decent animals up to race against summer scottish rubbish, and that this seemed to be an on-going affair. I never look at summer jumps full stop but last week the fact that Perth was on again caught my eye. I threw a point at Twiston-Davies's four runners in a get luck accumulator, and blow me down if they didn't all win!

I actually have quite a few of these "trainer system" bets in my head. I need to find a place to record them so that they are at hand and I don't overlook them in future. Not only are the definitely profitable, but they offer occasional big returns for little outlay.


Golf:
I made a mistake this week. I mistook the US tour for US players. I should have remembered only a few months ago saying to a friend how remarkable it was that Australians were dominating the tour. The plain fact is US golf is in a terrible state, and that, coupled with Mickelson and Woods' seening indifference to the Ryder cup, should have made it plain what was going to happen.

Also, a Ladbrokes compiler made a comment pre-tournament that hit home. He said that some people just like to take against the favourite hoping that they'll get value that way, but in this situation 8/13 Europe was definitely huge value. There's no doubt being contrarian by nature is one of the cornerstones of my success, but it can be an overdone strength. This is even more true in sports betting as opposed to horse betting, though even there, as we know, betfair has forced the value to the front end.


Football
Backing Reading to beat Man Utd nearly worked out. However I need to take a reality check on these type of bets as well. I remember when Fulham came up and played the big boys, and there just wasn't the actual self-belief that we could win - compete, yes : win, no. There's probably more scope to play similar matches on Asian handicaps and not be so greedy. This is an undercurrent through all of my sports betting. My horseplayer head tends to dominate and this is a mistake in a betting environment where the events are just much less competitive and random than (say) a competitive class 2 handicap, and where upsets similar to those in racing are just much rarer.

Weekend football 23rd Sept

Down to a more manageable 5 matches this weekend. For information the three matches that nearly made it onto the list but failed the last criteria are as follows:

Luton beat West Brom
Brentford (away) beat Chesterfield
Mansfield beat Accrington

We'll keep an eye on these ("near bets") all season to see how they fare.


The real bets though are as follows:

Reading 5pts beat Man Utd at 6/1

Leicester 5pts beat Colchester at Evens

QPR 5pts beat Hull at 11/8

Port Vale 5pts beat Bristol City at 13/8

(Sunday) Wrexham 5pts beat Hereford at 5/4

Ryder Cup

My heart obviously says Europe, but my gut isn't so sure. I've backed us every time over the last decade plus, when we've been seriously wrongly priced. This time I can't help feeling the USA are the ones being overlooked. For a start rookies have a terrific Ryder Cup record over the last few tournaments and much of what people are writing about the USA team now, they used to write about us.

Tough call. However there is one bet that looks too big. I'm on, but at limited stakes unfortunately.



Casey - top European points scorer - 2pts ew at 12/1

Weekend Football 16/17 Sept

Last night's results no good for us, and we need to keep on the right side of Keano from now on. Mind you, I said that about Portsmouth a few weeks ago and here I am betting against them!

Charlton 5pts beat Portsmouth 6/4

Stoke 5pts beat Burnley 6/5

Gillingham 5pts beat Swansea 6/4

Scunthorpe 5pts beat Cheltenham 5/4

Barnet 5pts beat Notts Co 7/5

Hartlepool 5pts beat Shrewsbury 6/5

Torquay 5pts beat Mansfield 6/5

Blackburn 5pts beat Man City 11/10

Man Utd 5pts beat Arsenal Evens

Mid-week Football 13/9

Two more matches to get involved in tonight.


Leeds 5pts beat Sunderland at 7/5

Torquay 5pts beat Bristol Rovers at 11/10


I've also done the ratings for the weekend and am just waiting on a few prices. Looks like another 9 matches, which continues to worry me, despite last night's romp. The compilers seem to have suddenly deviated from my ratings and I'm not sure why - all I can think is that they are paying slightly more attention to recent games (6 match form perhaps) than I am. If so, the next few weeks should be an interesting experiment - though hopefully not an expensive one!

Weekly Review

I'm going to start adding a weekly review of betting purely for my own benefit. I'm thinking the act of typing out my written notes will cement them in my mind, plus they'll hopefully provide a useful aide-memoir for a year's time, when looking at the same events again. Apologies to all for the self-indulgence (like a blog isn't!) - scroll down.


St Leger:
Sixties Icon was a solid favourite, as you'll see from my tissue below, against very average opponents. People wanted to be against him on forums all week - "he's the likeliest winner but a rotten price". They were looking for reasons to oppose. Noseda's form provided one. His horses had gone a fortnight without winning, including many favourites. This was enough to push the horse from odds on to 6/4. And that despite Noseda remaining bullish, and his 2 runners on the Friday both running to form. This sort of over-reaction against the big race favourite is a feature of the betfair world and something we can exploit.


Irish Champion:
I priced this up as being a tactical affair, and if brutally honest with self was looking for revenge for Alexander Goldrun over Ouija Board after my maximum bet at Goodwood. However, Coolmore used Ace as a pacesetter, and in doing so ensured Alexander had very little chance. I should have recognised this as an obvious threat.


Racing Saturday:
There was both the above, the rest of the York/Doncaster card, plus decent races at Chester and Goodwood. I looked at 11 races in all, and found decent bets in 6. I crossed one out completely. However, the other 4 were possibles, but dodgy, including an impossible Portland Handicap. I ended up doing Last Minute Bets in all 4 - without success. I could easily have simply added them to the discard pile, and probably should have done. Be careful during similar full days.


Longchamp:
Arc Trails weekend provided the usual tactical nonsense. However, Shirocco won his race - remember that when all the guff starts being peddled about the challengers.


Mid-week Football:
I ended up rating 9 lower league matches as bets, a worryingly large amount. This was on the first night of Champions League action, and on a Tuesday. I wonder if it's possible that the odds compilers took their eye off the ball? Considering the success of the ratings it's certainly something to remember for next year, and not to be worried if it happens again.

Mid-week Football - Sept 12th

It looks a remarkably busy night. Could just be a freak, or perhaps the odds compilers have been distracted by the Champions League, or perhaps this is where the ratings come unstuck!!

Plymouth 5pts to beat Cardiff at 13/8

Preston 5pts to beat West Brom at 13/8

Wolves 5pts to beat Derby at 10/11

Brentford 5pts to beat Swansea at 11/8

Crewe 5pts to beat Cheltenham at 10/11

Rotherham 5pts to beat Tranmere at 15/8

Scunthorpe 5pts to beat Port Vale at 8/5

Hartlepool 5pts to beat Mansfield at 5/4

Champions League - outrights

Here's my tissue and recommendations. We'll start a small portfolio, and go in again at the second stage/quarter finals.


Chelsea 7/1
Barcelona 7/1
Man Utd 10/1
Real Madrid 10/1
Inter Milan 12/1
AC Milan 12/1
Lyon 12/1
Liverpool 16/1
Valencia 16/1
Munich 25/1
Arsenal 25/1
Roma 25/1
PSV 25/1


Recommendations:

Valencia 2pts win at 25/1
Lyon 2pts win at 20/1
Roma 1pt win at 45/1
PSV 1pt win at 130/1

Top goalscorer
Saha 1pt ew at 40/1

Group stages:
PSV 5pts win at 9/2
Lyon 5pts win at 2/1
CSKA 5pts win at 9/1

Madrid Open golf

I'm keeping well away from the matchplay event this week - those events are hopless for betting purposes.

So, I'll stick to the European tour:

Olazabal 2pts win at 12/1
Fasth 1pt ew at 40/1
Ilonen 1pt ew at 100/1

NFL

I usually have a small dabble in this, and considering my only knowledge of American football was gained over the three months I worked in a sports bar in Seattle over 20 years ago, I have to say I've been extraordinarily lucky over the years!

One from each conference purely for interest, and I like Ladbrokes quarter odds 1234.

Arizona 1pt ew at 40/1

Baltimore 1pt ew at 40/1

Weekend Football 9 Sep

Only three matches this weekend, but I have to say I really like them, though with Preston's inability to score we'll save in case it's goalless.


Everton 5pts beat Liverpool at 3/1

Derby 5pts beat Sunderland at 8/5

Preston 5pts beat Cardiff at 7/5
Preston 1pt no goalscorer 15/2ish

Omega Golf

A very poor field in Europe with Garcia head and shoulders above this lot. He looks an amazing ew prospect and I've been matching him up with anything I can find that looks decent place value!!

For on here I'll do a golf double:

Garcia 11/2
Singh 13/2
2pts ew double


For the Omega itself:

Dougherty 1pt ew 125/1
Edfors 1pt ew at 40/1
Wall 1pt ew at 40/1

St Leger tissue

Not very exciting I'm afraid but here it is:

Sixites Icon Evens
Jadalee 8/1
Tusculum 9/1
Red Rocks 10/1
Mountain 33/1
Fire and Rain 33/1
Ask 33/1
Puerto Rico 33/1
Mont Etoile 33/1
Championship Point 33/1
Galient 100/1
The Last Drop 100/1

Sixties Icon looks solid to me. Very difficult to find something to beat it. For place betting I could see Championship Point performing better than of late if over whatever seems to be ailing him, and just possibly Mont Etoile could surprise once again.

I do have some ante post vouchers I rather wish I hadn't on Fire and Rain and Ask, and at least I have beaten the odds on Tusculum. I can't see me dashing to have another bet. My best chance is for Sixties Icon to be one of those big race favourites people want to oppose on a Saturday leading him to drift to ridiculous price - 6/4 would do.

Summary of performance

Time for a review of progress since launch of this blog.

Football
Points out: 912
Points in: 922.5
% returns: 101%

Football matches this season (included in above)
Points out: 100
Points in: 120
%returns: 120%

Golf
Points out: 303
Points in: 225
%returns: 74%

Racing
Points out: 50
Points in: 76
%returns: 152%

Racing (at escorialracing.co.uk - this flat season - not included in blog figures)
Points out: 1483
Points in: 1530
%returns: 103%

Others
Points out: 61
Points in: 143
%returns: 234%

ALL
Points out: 1326
Points in: 1366.5
%returns: 103%


Summary.
Football suffered the horrors of the world cup. This wasn't so bad on here, but set me back a fair way personally. The football match betting showed a profit last season, and so far early on this season is going well. I'm hopeful the ratings stack up and stealing the best prices does the rest.

Golf continues to be a drain. My syndicate partner and I have scaled back, and so in reality the points I suggest here are not actually the same bet size as the racing and football. I should probably bring all that into line on here, but hey it's only a blog no-one reads!

Racing-wise this hasn't been my best of seasons, and considering racing forms a significant part of my earnings-target, that has been a constant worry all year. The grinding bets (as put up on escorial) are showing a profit, but it's the "get rich" bets that have been dragging my own fund down. These are the ones that usually provide the leap forward you need, but you have to expect long painful losing runs with them, with near-misses part of the furniture. So it's been this season. For example I've done 59 forecasts over the season, with only one winner to show for it.


Bet and fund sizes:
To briefly summarise my racing bets are up to a maximum of 12 points. 12 points equates to 2% of my racing fund.

Football match bets are fixed at 5pts - this equates to 1.25% of my football fund. It was going to be raised to 2% after last season, but after the World Cup I had to scale back. I'd like to get to 2.5% next season.

Golf bets are usually just 1 or 2pts. 2pt is equivalent to half per cent of fund, and needs to be fixed so low to account for the prices and inevitable losing runs (plus the fact I'm losing!)

Other bets are variable. I have a "trading fund" and am willing to invest 20% of that fund on the right trade or 20% of the fund per event. The fund is a fifth the size of my racing fund and half the size of my football fund.


Bets in-running:
We still have to collect a nice amount on Ryan Moore as champion jockey. And Hayley should make it to 25 winners eventually. Our football league champions bets aren't looking quite so hot!


Future news:
Escorial is going subscription only at the end of October. I'm not entirely sure where this leaves me. I'm not sure how I feel about putting my thoughts up for free on a board that people pay for! I do hope it's a big success though - Ron sure deserves it for all the effort he's put into it. We'll see.

Weekedn Football 1-3 Sept

Another four games this week, carefully avoiding the internationals. I don't aim to have four matches each week, it's just turning out that way lately.

(Friday) Torquay (away) 5pts beat Darlington at 7/2+

(Friday) Hartlepool 5pts beat Boston at 11/10

(Saturday) Crewe 5pts beat Huddersfield at 6/4

(Sunday) Stockport 5pts beat Bristol Rovers at 6/4

BMW Golf

A bit late this week: (and missed some of the best prices as well)

Casey 2pts win at 12/1

John Daly 1pt ew at 50/1

Jason Day 1pt ew at 100/1

Betfred Sprint Cup - Haydock Saturday 2 Sept

As you know I put my racing tips up on:

www.escorialracing.co.uk

However, I don't put my ante post bets up there, so I thought I'd try to put more of those up on here. This week I've had a look at the major race at Haydock this Saturday.

Reverence is solid, as is Ifraaj (though a likely non runner). Amadeus Wolf at an early 6s is tempting, especially if Ifraaj is a non runner, but as usual I've cast around for a couple of longer shots.

Miss Sally has a bit to find, but should love the conditions, and looks far too big to me. Somnus loves this race and has every chance of yet again running into the frame. Ladbrokes go 14s so the bigger prices are tempting. It's not an ew race really but I've gone ew anyway.

Miss Sally 1.5pts ew at 40/1
Somnus 1.5pts ew at 25/1

Weekend football 26/27 August

I was going to do Middlesborough and Charlton last night at fancy prices - idiot!


Four again:

Wolves 5pts beat Luton at Evens

Huddersfield 5pts beat Forest at 8/5

Orient 5pts beat Swansea at 6/4

(Sunday) Villa beat Newcastle at 7/5

WGC - Firestone

100 pts down on golf bets - dragging this site's profits down.

Di Marco 1pt ew at 40/1
Davis Love 1pt ew at 80/1

Adam Scott 1pt win w/out Woods at 16/1

Cink 1pt place at 10/1
Westwood 1pt place at 20/1

USPGA Golf

I'll play the last major, rather than the Russian Open!


Di Marco 1pt ew at 66/1
Ogilvy 1pt ew at 50/1
JB Holmes 1pt ew at 300/1
Howell 1pt ew at 125/1

Pettersson 1pt ew at 25/1 - top European

Weekend Football 18 and 19 August

Four more matches for this weekend. One from each division.


Coventry 5pts beat Leicester at 6/5 (Friday)

Bolton 5pts beat Spurs at 9/5

Brentford 5pts beat Huddersfield at 13/10

Rochdale 5pts beat Notts Co at 7/5


Bolton really do look a long price to me. Everyone's assuming they'll struggle this year, and possibly over-rating Spurs as well.

Big Brother

An update as we enter the final furlong:

Originally I suggested 2pts on Leah (lost) and 3pts at 30/1 Glynn.

Later I suggested at least trading out for a free overall position when Glynn was 3/1, and also getting a free stake on Aisleyne at 20/1.

Glynn is now 16/1 and very unlikely to win. Much to my astonishment Aisleyne is the one putting in a late surge to upset the favourite. I can't see it myself, and will be trading out again, at 5/1 or under, and "going green".

I've bettered this personally, but will call it 10pts profit.

Weekend Football 12 August

This week's recommendations.


Southampton 5pts beat West Brom 11/8

Plymouth (away) 5pts beat Sunderland 9/2

Oldham 5pts beat Swansea 11/8

Bury 5pts beat Shrewsbury 7/5

Dutch Golf

Golf back to normal last week!


Richard Green 1pt ew at 25/1

Alastair Forsyth 1pt ew at 80/1

Tom Whitehouse 1pt ew at 80/1 (or bigger)

Weekend Football Matches

I was going to up my points per match to 8pts (2% of fund), as the ratings performed well last year. However, the World Cup damaged my bank to such an extent I have to stay with 5pts per game this season.

Remember price is everything. Don't take under these prices.

Preston 5pts beat Sheff Weds at 4/5

Bournemouth 5pts beat Chesterfield at 11/10

Grimsby 5pts beat Boston at Evens

Hartlepool 5pts beat Swindon at 11/8

Scandanavian golf

I think we'll keep the bets small on the golf for now:

Stenson 2pts win at 14/1
Dyson 1pt ew at 50/1

Football League - recommendations

My football syndicate members have input into our pre-season portfolio so these aren't all my ideas, and are not all based on the tissues below.

Totesport deserve credit for going quarter odds 1234 in the lower leagues - take advantage where you can. With the doubles etc make sure you take the time to shop around and do best prices. Don't just do with one bookie.

Bolton 2pts w/out big 4 at 14/1
Bolton 2pts top 6 at 9/2
Crystal Palace 4pts win at 14/1
Torquay 1pt ew at 40/1 (ew 1234)

2pts ew double Leeds/Bristol City
1pt ew double Southampton/Millwall

16 x 1pt doubles and 12 1/3 pt trebles these teams
Southampton/Coventry/C Palace
Huddersfield/Doncaster
Darlington/Peterborough

Football League Outrights

Here's the tissues: I'll do the recommendations on a separate posting.

Premiership
Chelsea 4/5
Liverpool 6/1
Man Utd 6/1
Arsenal 9/1
Spurs 33/1

I think Chelsea may not wrap it up so quickly this time. There's trading potential, either to get Liverpool and Man Utd on board early, or to lay Chelsea, with a view to riding the highs and lows.


Championship
Crystal Palace 9/1
Southampton 10/1
Preston 11/1
Birmingham 12/1
Leeds 12/1
Norwich 12/1
Wolves 20/1
Ipswich 20/1
West Brom 20/1
Coventry 20/1

Competitive as ever. If you take the view that the relegated sides have it all to do, there is potential at the front-end of the market. My figures are based around my ratings, but with a healthy tweak for managers. I'm in the camp that rates Peter Taylor, and George Burley obviously commands utmost respect. Also, as a Fulham fan, Micky Adams can do no wrong.



League 1
Nottm Forst 7/1
Bristol City 7/1
Millwall 10/1
Brentford 12/1
Huddersfield 12/1
Doncaster 12/1
Crewe 16/1
Brighton 20/1
Bradford 20/1
Gillingham 25/1
Swansea 25/1
Oldham 25/1

There's only 60 points between all of these on my ratings. By comparison the Premiership has a spread of 170, and the Championship 100. Frankly any of them can win, and I'd rather look at the ones around 12s than the market leaders.



League 2
Milton Keynes 8/1
Swindon 8/1
Hartlepool 12/1
Walsall 20/1
Grimsby 20/1
Torquay 20/1
Wrexham 20/1
Wycombe 20/1
Peterborough 20/1
The rest between 25/1 and 50/1 but all with chances.

As for League 1 there's nothing between all these on ratings. Who knows!

Open review

Well that was pretty good.

Woods for the money, plus Furyk placed without Els and Woods. Pettersson came pretty close to top European and as he traded at 1/2 for a time on betfair, there was no down-side.

A welcome relief to have a winning week at golf, and thrusts the blog back into overall profit, which considering the long-term golf losses is remarkable.

I'm not sure where I'm going overall with the golf strategy. With the football season starting soon I'm going to take a break for a week, have a think and come back refreshed ready to get stuck in.

Open after day 2

We're in good shape with Woods and Els clear, and with Pettersson, Pampling and Ogilvy still alive for places.

Here's the tissue after day 2.


Woods 5/4
Els 9/4
Di Marco 33/1
Goosen 33/1
Scott 33/1
Furyk 33/1
Garcia 66/1
Jiminez 66/1
Mickelson 66/1
Cabrera 100/1
Ogilvy 100/1
Pettersson 100/1

It will take a big performance to catch the front two now. The betting without Woods and Els market is also disappointing but we'll make one small addition to our portfolio.


Jim Furyk (w/out Els and Woods) 1pt ew at 20/1 (quarter 1234)

Open after day 1

Not too bad a day for us - Woods down to 2/1 and Pettersson and Pampling in the mix.

Latest tissue:
Woods 4/1
Els 7/1
Mickelson 11/1
Singh 20/1
Furyk 20/1
McDowell 33/1
Jiminez 33/1
Garcia 33/1
Pettersson 33/1
Scott 33/1
Owen 100/1
Weir 100/1
Crane 100/1
Pampling 100/1
Clarke 100/1

Glad we've got Tiger in the tank, and I wouldn't want to lay him, but 2/1 looks on the skinny side. I've played a few at big prices but for the tissue Els looks far too long at 14s. Let's grab some.

Els 2pts at 14/1

Open

Immelman's a non runner, so in topping up my points I'll shamelessly steal from Jeremy Chapman of the Racing Post, as I was taken by one of his advices, though missed the best price and was limited on the next best!


Todd Hamilton 1pt ew Top American 175/1

Open Championship

Here's my tissue. I watch this from first ball to last, and trade myself silly. So let's throw a decent 20 points at the damned thing on here - my percentages are ruined by the golf anyway!


Woods 6/1
Mickelson 10/1
Els 25/1
Singh 25/1
Donald 33/1
Scott 33/1
Pettersen 33/1
Furyk 33/1
Immelman 33/1
Ogilvy 33/1
Goosen 50/1
harrington 50/1
Howell 50/1
Casey 50/1
Appleby 66/1
Clark 66/1
Stenson 66/1
Allenby 66/1
Pampling 66/1
Garcia 66/1
Perry 100/1
Montgomerie 100/1
Campbell 100/1
Bjorn 100/1
Olazabal 100/1
Cabrera 100/1
Westwood 100/1
Poulter 125/1
O'Hern 125/1
Love 125/1
Weir 125/1
Ames 125/1
McGinley 125/1
Jiminez 125/1


Recommendations:
To be honest Woods' price looks fair to me. And the other prices that look decent enough to tempt me are:

Woods 6 points at 6/1

Pettersson 1pt ew at 125/1
Ogilvy 1pt ew at 50/1
Pampling 1pt ew at 125/1

Stenson - top continental European 2pts at 9/1
Pettersson - top continental European 2pts at 14/1
Immelman - top South African 2pts at 9/2
Casey - top GB and Ireland 2pts at 12/1

Scottish Open golf

Let's see if we can improve on last week's 100/1 second.

Tim Clark 1pt win at 20/1
Poulter 1pt ew at 25/1
Jacobsen 1pt ew at 50/1



Newmarket July meeting analysis over on

www.escorialracing.co.uk

though it's not my favourite festival.



I'll continue to lay the cricket 1st test draw, though there has to be doubts about these bowlers getting 40 wickets between them!

Update on in-running bets etc

What a hopeless World Cup that was for me. It will take me a while to get my football fund back on its feet! With that and the sorrows of the golf fund it's just as well that the bread and butter (trading fund) and the core businesse (racing) continue to pay the bills. Don't forget to look in at

www.escorialracing.co.uk

for the racing - a couple more winners today - 11/2 and 8/1.



Update on ongoing bets.
Nadal through to the Wimbledon final ensures some profits though victory is unlikely, and Lara is leading the European golf open at 100/1 - watch him collapse tomorrow, but you can get out now at 5s if you want.

More long-term - Ryan Moore (advised 9/1) is now odds-on for the jockey championship. With Fallon banned (and there's dancing in the streets of Tooting over that one), Ryan has every chance of picking up some great rides from the Stoute stable. I've covered my bets already but will stick with him for the money.

Hayley Turner rode a winner yesterday against one of mine, which is one more on her way to 25 winners this year - it's been pretty tortuous progress but she has got to 16.

Hopefully you've dumped your Glynn Big Brother bets (33/1 advised) at around 6s. That more than paid for Lea (lost) and Aisleye (also dumped for a small profit). The big problem this year has been a total lack of competition in the eviction markets and its been a poor harvest this year, on top of a gruesome show.

European Open

Just a couple of small advices this week. Well not really advices, as you'd be pretty stupid to follow the golf right now - but I'll keep going with the experiment.


Peter Hanson 1pt ew at 125/1
Lara 1pt ew at 100/1

French Open golf

I've changed tack a bit, admittedly with no appreciable difference!


Van de velde half point ew at 100/1
Levet half point ew at 125/1
Havret 1pt ew at 100/1
Soren Hansen 1pt ew at 33/1

World Cup quarter-finals and winner

A couple of bets for the quarter-finals. This has been a desperate tournament for me so far - keep having to remind myself of the profits from the last European Champs to keep me sane!

As usual at the quarter-final stage I've also played the market - see previous posts for an explanation.
It does mean my book is hopelessly one-sided, Argentina or bust, and God forbid Ronaldo's top-scorer!

Argentina 5pts beat Germany at 2/1

Portugal 5pts beat England at 3/1


and additions/top-ups to the outright:

Argentina 4pts win at 9/2
Portugal 1pt win at 16/1

Wimbledon Tennis

Let's take some early positions here, and then re-visit at the quarter final stage.

In the men's I'm looking for the winners of the half opposite Federer, but the women's is looking as open as ever.


Nadal 2pts ew at 20/1
Baghdatis 1pt ew at 100/1

Hingis 2pts win at 16/1
Vaidisova 2pts win at 12/1

World Cup Last 16

I think England and Italy are way too short - decent possibilities trading, asians and draw no bet. Mind you, I thought the same about Germany!


However, following the normal rules:

Spain 5pts beat France at 5/4.

Gleneagles Golf

People of a nervous disposition look away now.

By the way don't forget Royal Ascot is covered over on:

www.escorialracing.co.uk

where I even managed to nail the winner of the Royal Hunt Cup today!!

Unfortunately on here golf is rather spoiling my own scoring average!


Lynn 1pt ew at 50/1

Dredge 1pt ew at 25/1

World Cup - final round of matches

The ratings are settling down now, and whilst this is the potentially "dodgy", I've trusted them.


Trinidad 5pts beat Paraguay at 100/30

Portugal 5pts beat Mexico at 6/4

Ivory Coast 5pts beat Serbia at 6/5

Czech 5pts beat Italy at 11/4

Australia 5pts beat Croatia at 9/4

and 1pt acc at 240/1

US Open Golf

Golf is dragging this blog down so much I'm inclined to ditch it. But the hope is outdoing the despair, and I'll keep plugging away!


Chad Campbell 1pt ew at 80/1
Tim Clark 1pt ew at 66/1
Van Pelt half point ew at 150/1

Big Brother update

Those of you who got the 30/1 Glynn are sitting pretty - currently 3/1 on betfair.

I'd be inclined to at least trade for a free bet. You could do worse than take the stake and put it on Aisleyne at 20/1 outright, or go for the top female market. It's very rare that I'm interested in backing a vaguely attractive female in this, but she has actually made me laugh on the few occasions I've looked in. Leah of course is a no-hoper. I'm hanging on waiting for a chance to trade out as close to our opening price as possible.

Annika Sorenstam

Whilst we're on the golf, you don't get the chance to bet 9/2 about Sorenstam these days.
Ok so she's not on top form. Who cares.

Sorenstam 5pts win at 9/2

BACA (Austrian) Open Golf

Keep on keeping on!


Lee Slattery 1pt ew at 40/1

Jeppesen 1pt ew at 50/1

R Green 2pts top Rest of World at 9/1

Marc Warren 1pt ew top GB and Ireland at 40/1

World Cup - first set of matches

For those interested here is my tissue for these matches.

Germany 1/2 Draw 7/2 Costa Rica 8/1
Poland Evens Draw 3/1 Ecuador 5/1
England 8/13 Draw 3/1 Paraguay 13/2
Sweden 4/9 Draw 4/1 Trinidad 10/1
Argentina 4/5 Draw 5/2 Ivory coast 9/2
Holland 5/6 Draw 5/2 Serbia 9/2
Mexico 8/11 Draw 3/1 Iran 5/1
Portugal 1/3 Draw 9/2 Angola 12/1
Australia 13/8 Draw 9/4 Japan 13/8
Czech 6/5 Draw 9/4 USA 5/2
Italy 8/15 Draw 7/2 Ghana 7/1
Korea 6/5 Draw 5/2 Togo 9/2
France 5/6 Draw 5/2 Swiss 9/2
Brazil 8/11 Draw 3/1 Croatia 5/1
Spain 11/8 Draw 9/4 Ukraine 5/2
Tunisia 13/8 Draw 9/4 S Arabia 13/8


Recommendations:

Japan 5pts beat Australia at 2/1

South Korea 5pts beat Togo at 5/4

Ukraine 5pts beat Spain at 4/1

French Open - Women

Another outing for our quarter-finals system. This is based around stealing prices in very keen markets. We look to get the odds that represent the biggest percentage points difference between shortest available price and longest. This has reurned over 100% for the last two years I have been using it.

Henin 6pts win at 11/8

Clijsters 4pts win at 6/1

Summary of results to June

Here's the summary of how the blog's performed since launch.

Don't forget the majority of my horse racing advices can be found for free at:


www.escorialracing.co.uk


Currently this flat season they are slightly down, which isn't what we need, given they are the mainstay of my betting! Still, it was 125% last season and 115% is normal.



Football
Out 715pts
In 740pts
% return 104%

Golf
Out 205pts
In 115.5 pts
%returns 56%


Racing
Out 44pts
In 76 pts
%returns 173%


Others
Out 36pts
In 91 pts
% returns 253%


Overall
Out 1000 pts exactly
In 1023.75 pts
%returns 102%


Notes:
Obviously the golf is dragging the place down. But I have said all along that the golf is a work in progress. Even so, you may not have made much backing these selections blind, but you wouldn't have lost either. And remember there are trading opportunities all along. For example we backed Glyn at 30/1 to win Big Brother and he's been as low as 8/1.

I have a feeling World Cup fever is about to strike the blog - this could of course have a terrible effect on the profit/loss, but it should be fun.

Welsh Open

I've decided to stick to European Tour for now - not that I'm doing very well there either! The golf is certainly bringing down my percentages.


Fasth 1pt win at 22/1
Jimenez 1pt win at 10/1
Brian davis half point ew at 50/1
Ross Fisher half point ew at 66/1
Dredge top Welshman 1pt win at 7/4

The Derby - Tissue

Here's an early tissue and recommendation for the Derby (or for our American friends - the Epsom Derby).

It's based on it being definitely on the soft side.


Visindar 3/1
Septimus 5/1
Lindas Lad 7/1
Championship Point 10/1
Horatio Nelson 16/1
Sir Percy 16/1
Hala Bek 16/1
Dylan Thomas 16/1

Visindar is a solid favourite. The price just looks too short to me. Septimus also solid and I'm happy with my 25/1 ante post voucher. Soft ground should help him stay in touch with the others early and stay on past them late. If the going firms up Championship Point will be added to my portfolio (which does include Sir Percy and Hala Bek, but I can't have them on my mind now.)

The one that really stands out is Lindas Lad. Group 1 winner, solid trial, goes on the ground. Looks way too big to me, and in a fairly uncompetitive race, ew looks the way to go. Obviously there's the usual caveat of betting ante post, but the price merits it.

Lindas Lad 5pts ew at 20/1

Big Brother 7

Big Brother's definitely a trading event. Plus I'm not in much of a mood to watch it this year.
I'm wondering whether I can bet on it simply by monitoring the betfair forum!

Pete looks the main man I have to say, and this Kit-Kat promotion is a difficult one to call.

However, if you want to take a flyer on a couple of rank outsiders you could do worse than these two. Granted one's a porn star and the other's a geek, and both could be gone before June wipes its feet. However, they both strike me as having a hint of the winning qualities (Humility, Entertaining and Inoffensive). Pete, George, Richard, Mikey also qualify but not at prices that excite. Pete currently seems to possess all three qualities, plus he's orignal, so he is a strong favourite, but I couldn't go below 7/2 at this stage.


Lea 2pts win at 50/1
Glyn 3pts win at 30/1

World Cup - to qualify

My prices for the Wolrd Cup outrights and each Group are down below somewhere.

Here's a couple more bets:


USA to qualify from their group 5pts at 7/4

Korea to qualify from their group 5pts at 13/8

Wentworth Golf

I'll skip the US golf this week, and have a throw at the BMW instead.


Stenson 2pts win at 33/1
Immelman 2pts win at 25/1
Olazabal 1pt win at 30/1
Donald 1pt win at 22/1

I'll add a player at end of each day's play.

Golf - Irish Open and Colonial

Ho hum, here we go again...


Irish Open

Harrington 1pt win at 12/1
Poulter 1pt win at 33/1
Lynn 1pt place at 16/1



Colonial

Furyk 1pt win at 14/1
Toms 1pt win at 20/1
Campbell 1pt win at 20/1

Champions League final

We're in profit already, having backed Barcelona and Arsenal at the quarter final stages. Normally I'd sit back and enjoy. However, Barcelona really should be odds on for this, and I feel compelled to play.


Barcelona 5pts win at Evens

World Cup prices

For anyone interested here is my tissue for the World Cup outright, and groups.
They are based on a mixture of rankings, my ratings, qualification, world class players, and for me the most under-rated part of major tournaments - the draw.

Outright:
Brazil 4/1
Argentina 6/1
England 7/1
Holland 7/1
Germany 11/1
Italy 12/1
France 12/1
Spain 20/1
Sweden 50/1
Portugal 50/1
Czech 50/1
Ukraine 50/1
Ivory Coast 100/1
Mexico 100/1
Coratia 100/1
USA 100/1
Serbia 100/1
Poland 100/1


Recommendation:
Holland 5pts win at 16/1
Winner to come from Group C 5pts win at 9/2


Group A
Germany 4/9
Poland 4/1
Ecuador 10/1
Costa Rica 20/1


Group B
England Evens
Sweden 7/4
Paraguay 9/1
Trinidad 20/1

Sweden 5pts win at 9/4


Group C
Argentina 6/4
Holland 13/8
Serbia 8/1
Ivory Coast 8/1


Group D
Portugal Evens
Mexico 6/4
Angola 20/1
Iran 20/1


Group E
Italy Evens
Czech 5/2
USA 5/1
Ghana 16/1


Group F
Brazil 4/9
Croatia 11/2
Australia 9/1
Japan 20/1


Group G
France 1/3
Switzerland 9/1
Korea 9/1
Togo 20/1


Group H
Spain Evens
Ukraine 6/4
Tunisia 20/1
Saudi 20/1

Ukraine 5pts win at 9/4

Golf - British Masters and Byron Nelson

My R&D golf budget will be bankrupt quite shortly!


British Masters
1pt ew Paul McGinley at 50/1
1pt ew David Howell at 20/1 (gone now I think)

1/3rd pt Sandelin at 100/1
1/3rd pt Stadler at 100/1
1/3rd pt Griffiths at 180/1



Byron Nelson
1pt win Adam Scott 18/1 (hardly value, I know)
1pt place Couples at 9/1

Play-offs, The Derby, and Wolrd Cup goalscorer

Three random bets for a bored Tuesday!


1) Division 2 play-offs:
Lincoln are top of my ratings for Division 2, and yet outsiders in the betting. Mind you, I backed Preston on exactly the same basis.

Lincoln to be promoted - 6pts at 7/2.



2) The Derby - ante post.
I backed him after his maiden at bigger prices, and couldn't help topping up this morning.

Hala Bek 6pts win at 16/1



3) Top World Cup Goalscorer.
There's a few teams who look sure to make the last 16 and have two poor teams in their groups to beat, but most of them have obvious strikers at short prices. One team that seems overlooked, and which of course will likely go further is, sad to say, Germany themselves.

I'm going to cover this with a punt on Lucas Podolski (who?).

Lucas Podolski 3pts ew at 50/1 (quarter 1234)

Golf - Italian and Wachovia

Please scroll pass this embarrassing attempt to find a golfer!!

Italian Open

1pt ew Darren Fichardt at 80/1
1pt win Bradley Dredge at 33/1

1/3rd pt Lee Slattery at 130/1

1pt Khan to beat Bickerton, Canonica and Wall at 11/4



Wachovia

1pt win Goosen at 16/1
1pt win G Ogilvy at 40/1

1/3rd pt Villegas at 130/1
1/3rd pt Sabbatini at 125/1

forgot Yeovil

In my haste I forgot Yeovil.

Yeovil 5pts beat Colchester at 7/2

Weekend Football - 6 May

Was going to take it easy on this the last week, but then I saw the prices and changed my mind. Division 1 has been on my mind all season. Incredibly tight division, often wrongly priced based on an over-estimation of the difference in ability between top and bottom.

This week this has been taken to exptremes, with some amazing prices on home teams to beat away teams vying for the play-offs. One thing to remember about teams vying for the play-offs is that all they've proved themselves to be is pretty average!

The first three teams on the list would have looked like value to me at 2/1!

Bradford 5pts beat Nottingham Forest at 11/4

Bournemouth 5pts beat Brentford at 11/4

Chesterfield 5pts beat Swansea at 11/4

Swindon 5pts beat Huddersfield at 15/8

Rotherham 5pts beat MK Dons at 13/10

Rushden 5pts beat Barnet at 15/8

Summary of results

Here's a breakdown of all bets so far on this blog:


Overall
Total points out: 880
Total returns: 958.6
% Returns: 108.9%


Football
Total points out: 636
Total returns: 706
% Returns: 111%


Golf
Total points out: 174
Total returns: 112.8
% Returns: 64.8%


Racing
Total points out: 34
Total returns: 76
% Returns: 223.5%


Others
Total points out: 26
Total returns: 63
% Returns: 262.5


Bets in-running:
We have some useful football bets.
We took both Barcelona and Arsenal in the quarter-finals of the Champions League, giving us a certain profit.
We also have a nice price on Middlesborough for the UEFA cup, which may be one to hedge.
Munster represent us in the Heinenken cup, another one that may be a hedge.
Ryan Moore may have been a touch optimistic, and Hayley Turner is finding life tough as expected but has got 10 winners so far of the 25 needed in 2006.


Summary
Happy with the overall profit, and the football match bets continue to cut the mustard.
The golf is frustrating. Still, I have described it as a work in progress, and I spent a lot of time this weekend analysing my ratings and hope that I'm learning quite a lot of value, whilst I'm losing!
Don't forget that my racing tips are available for free on:

www.escorialracing.co.uk

and showed 125% returns last jumps season.

The "specials" season should start again soon, probably with Eurovision!

Weekend Football - 29th May

Some more silly prices, based on team's having to win.


Charlton 5pts beat Blackburn 15/8

Wigan 5pts beat Portsmouth 13/8

Norwich 5pts beat Wolves 5/4

Macclesfield 5pts beat Grimsby 9/4

Rochdale 5pts beat Bristol Rovers 7/4

Zurich and Andalucian Golf

This is getting me down to be honest. Still, I'll keep digging.


Zurich

Ames 1pt ew at 25/1

Pernice 1pt ew at 40/1 w/out Mickelson and Goosen

Leaney 1/3rd pt win at 110/1
Henry 1/3rd pt win at 140/1
Howell 111, 1/3rd pt win at 100/1



Andalucia

Gonzalez 1pt ew at 20/1

Fichardt 1/2pt ew at 66/1
Whitehouse 1/2pt ew at 80/1

Eliasson 1/3rd pt win at 40/1
Fisher 1/3rd pt win at 55/1
Derksen 1/3rd pt win at 125/1

Weekend Football 22nd April

Looks like we're taking on some "big" away teams this week. The ratings suggest the bookies have already decided these have won, given the paucity of their opposition. There's also an element of "silly season" thinking going on - in that the home teams often don't have much to play for. I'll steal the prices and hope for some upsets.



Everton 5pts beat Birmingham at 13/10 ("silly-season" price)

Millwall 5pts beat Burnley 6/4

Hartlepool 5pts beat Nottingham Forest at 12/5

Tranmere 5pts beat Bristol City at 7/4 (that's for you Karin!)

Walsall 5pts beat Huddersfield at 2/1

Mansfield 5pts beat Carlisle at 12/5

Golf - Asian and Houston

A slightly new approach this week, given out struggle to get this fund going. We'll major on one or two players near the front of the market, looking at each way value as well as win value, and support with hit and hope smaller bets.

And then plough in in-running if and when opportunities arise.


Houston
Darren Clarke 1pt ew at 25/1

Jacobsen 1/3rd point win at 66/1
Leaney 1/3rd point win at 170/1
M Wilson 1/3rd point win at 110/1



Asian Open
Nick Dougherty 1pt ew at 22/1
David Lynn 1pt ew at 33/1

Dyson 1/3rd point win at 33/1
Sterne 1/3rd point win at 70/1
TC Wang 1/3rd point win at 80/1

Bank Holiday Monday - football

I've only just managed to price these up, and so have missed quite a few prices. This seems the start of the silly season. You'll see that virtually all of my games involve teams who supposedly need to win. Some of the prices are gobsmacking. I had Charlton at around Evens, and Middlesborough not much longer.


Charlton 5pts beat Portsmouth 13/8

Middlesborough 5pts beat West Ham at 13/8

Bolton (away) 5pts beat West Brom at 21/10

Cardiff (away) 5pts beat Crewe at 12/5

Derby 5pts beat Hull at 6/5

Southampton 5pts beat Millwall at 10/11


I just missed the prices on Barnsley and Bristol City so will just watch those.

Weekend Football - April 15th

Here we go again, same as last week would be nice. I seem to be featuring teams in the third tier again. I think the reason for this is the teams in that division are much closer to each other on ability than the markets seem to think.

Bradford 5pts beat Doncaster at 13/10

Blackpool 5pts beat Swansea at 7/4

Bournemouth 5pts beat Huddersfield at 13/8

Rotherham 5pts beat Brentford at 15/8

Tranmere 5pts beat Forest at 15/8

Mansfield 5pts beat Orient at 15/8

Golf - Heritage and China

Heritage:

Ernie Els 2pts win at 10/1
Charley Hoffman 1pt ew at 150/1
Rod Pampling 1pt ew at 33/1




China Open

Paul Casey 2pts win at 11/1
Andrew Buckle 1pt ew at 33/1


1pt ew double
Jim Furyk 14/1
Nick Dougherty 14/1