2009 Challenge Fund (£13815 - £490 in play accounted)
Current stake - £120
My day was looking OK when Radar Love landed a modest ew bet to salvage my losses. Not too impressed to come back from my walk and see he'd been thrown out! At least Southend won.
Racing.
Miss Mitch is in my stable and is fairly priced today – I'd be happy with 3/1 and like Corals I'd be ducking her.
In the Lincoln I see my darts correspond to Tom Segal's so that's those prices gone! I'll be waiting anyway to ensure all go to post. Otherwise not much doing. Throw in Fair Point at Lingfield for the trebles.
Miss Mitch 4:35 Lingfield £120 win at 7/2
Mias Boy £40 win at 16/1
Benandonner £40 win at 16/1
Blythe Knight £10 win and £30 place best odds.
2 x £20 trebles Miss Mitch/Fair point and Mias Boy and Benandonner.
Football
Lincoln are no great shakes and their preference for drawing at home has the bookies opposing them. Still, we can get close to Evens -0.25 on the asians and that's still a better price than I made them to win outright.
Lincoln £120 at 1.9+ -0.25 asians.
Barking Bets (Banked £1375/Current fund £2430 – 1 bet in play unaccounted)
Current stake - £240.
I haven't looked yet to be honest.
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Saturday March 28 2009 Doncaster
ReplyDelete14:45 - William Hill Spring Mile
I’ll make the following selection assumptions for the spring mile and the Lincoln
(*) It’s a straight course, so determine where the pace is (high or low)
(*) Deemphasise draw bias due to above
(*) Oppose horses that require soft going conditions
(*) Oppose slow starters.
(*) Side with horses with stamina for an end to end gallop
Short listed
Fireside, Mangham, Manassas, Osteopathic Remedy, Opus Maximus
Fireside is “potentially” the class of the field on paper. However in my opinion, a wooden spoon in last years 2000 Guineas doesn’t qualify him for favouritism in this race.
The only reason for opposing Mangham is he’s top weight in competitive field.
Manassas is unexposed and could be anything. There is a slight pace advantage to high drawn runners and with nothing else to eliminate them from consideration Osteopathic Remedy and Opus Maximus form my three against the field.
Dutch: Manassas, Osteopathic Remedy and Opus Maximus @ best price
15:55 - William Hill Lincoln
Same logic as above
Short Listed
Expresso Star, Swop, Charm School, Huzzah, Benandonner, Mia's Boy, Whistledownwind
Expresso Star’s trainers concern about the ground has been well reported.
Unlike the Spring Mile in this race my pace figures detect a definite bias for those drawn low (far rail). Swop, Charm Schoo, Huzzah, Mia’s Boy are drawn away from the pace however just in case I’ve got it wrong Huzzah has the potential sit behind the front runner on his side of the course, Philario to make his challenge at the finish.
Whistledownwind scores highly on my ratings and Benandonner is pricewise’s and the tooting tissue selection. Who am I to side against these well respected punters!
Dutch: Huzzah, Benandonner, Whistledownwind @ best price
Prob over emphasised the effect of the going on Expresso Stars performance. Looks a group horse in sheep’s clothing to me. However a 22/1 winner made up for what has been a long losing run,
ReplyDeleteWell done Toad.
ReplyDeleteTerrible day for me - my win bet draws, my draws lose!
And I overlooked that Miss Mitch doesn't go left handed - awful decision.
Going for a long walk tomorrow and having a day off.
my win bet draws, my draws lose!
ReplyDeleteAh... Sounds like you have caught Matsunosuke-itous. I prescribe beer taken with food approx 3 time’s day and just before bedtime