Cheltenham Preview

Jonah had me looking back through last year's postings on Cheltenham. My ante post advices were hopeless, and over the four days I advised only one winner. On the other hand that was enough for a 2.5pt profit on Cheltenham advices. And I did mention Ebazaiyan and L'Antartique in write ups.

It's a telling reminder though of just how competitive the festival is, and of how easy it is to get carried away in the run up to it. Every year I think I'm going to win a million on mad accumulators, only to have offered up the losing slips to the gods of Cleeve Hill halfway through the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday.

So instead of putting up tips along with everyone else who can hold a form book up the right way, plus plenty who can't, I thought I'd bore you with the state of my antepost books, and where it leaves me with the main races.

Supreme

I'msingingtheblues or Helens Vision anyone? That's the problem with Cheltenham. It squats over the whole season and you find yourself putting on bets in November at the first semblance of ability. These are joined by Kalahari King and Khyber Kim. At least the latter has a chance. The one horse I keep looking at is Sentry Duty who demolished Celestial Halo (of whom more later). He looks to have a fine chance, and yet I can't help thinking Henderson believes Kyber Kim is the more likely winner, despite apparently bouncing last time. There's plenty of credible Irish contenders and it could well be one for throwing a few long priced darts, as per last year.

Arkle

Osana was my initial plunge. He has at least been joined by Tidal Bay at 10s and Mahogany Blaze at 14s, so we have room to work. I wouldn't think Tidal Bay's jumping will stand the test to be honest. And Noland must get outpaced at some stage so I'd wait until in-running. I'd also worry about him being taken on for the lead, not least by Kruguyrova, scourge of the £500 challenge, tough, game and genuine, but there to be shot at on this track. Clopf isn't one to trust and Leslingtaylor is likeable but again this probably isn't the right course. So, latterly, like others, I'm warming to Ring The Boss. His performance against the mare was pretty eye-catching and I've added him to the portfolio at 14s.

Champion Hurdle

This is more like it. Osana at 40s and Sizing Europe at 14s. Backed up with Blythe Knight at 20s (well it was September!) and an Ebazaiyan 'love bet' at 33s (I'm sure I'll top that up, and regret it). Usually when I have nailed the ante post market some ridiculous course of events has conspired to rob me of the winnings I've already mentally cashed in. You've been warned! I still see it as a fight between the front two though.

Ballymore

This could be worse as well. Group Captain at 25s (he better go for this and not the Supreme) and Aigle D'Or at 20s. That was looking so sweet it seemed worth getting Paddyderplasterer on board as well at 6s after Pricewise's eulogies, though to be honest I haven't followed the Irish novice hurdle form.

Queen Mum

My Way De Solzen seems to be there. I've forgotten this bet, but think it may have been inspired by one of the few tipsters I take seriously. Idiot! All is not lost though as my only other voucher is Master Minded at 20s. That said, it's only for a quarter point – which I like to think is probably because I was knocked back but I can't actually remember whether that was the case. I may have just been on a losing streak/in a bad mood/playing like a fool. Whatever it could well be the only bet I have on the race.

Royal Sun Alliance

Nevada Royale (2 points), Jy Vole, Hobbs Hill, Negus de Beaumont. Why oh why? Every year I promise I won't get so hock-deep in losing slips on this race, and every year the same. Last year the only horse that could hurt me was Denman. What was I thinking? What is left in the wreckage? I have Battlecry at 100/1 and my last throw of the dice is Oscar Park at 14s. I was mighty impressed with his spin at the weekend and in a year when nothing stands out he looks a major player. I'm attending Wednesday this year and I think he's going to play a large role in the success or otherwise of my festival.

World Hurdle

Wichita Lineman at 7s and Kasbah Bliss at 20s. The latter I'd all but given up on as a non stayer, but his last run has peeled open a smidgeon of hope. All irrelevant of course because the great Inglis Drever wins this to whoops of delight drifting across Shropshire, and I can already say the £500 challenge will be playing him, hopefully in a drifting market on the back of fears about the Johnson stable.

Ryanair

Mossbank at 5s. Purely down to a very well reasoned piece by Pricewise. A bit worried to see him shortening for the Gold Cup but hopefully sense will prevail. Also worried to read Andrew Mount's comments on his regression through the course of each season. I was all set to add Turko and L'antartique to the portfolio in a field likely to cut up badly but missed the boat.

Triumph

Celestial Halo at 10s. When he and Khyber Kim won at Newbury I really thought I'd seen two festival winners, and their defeats next time rather put a dampener on my nice sized double. Nicholls remains incredibly bullish about the horse though. This is leaning me back towards Sentry Duty and in a largely circular argument back to Khyber Kim also.

That's my lot. The life changing bet concerns Kyber Kim, Ring The Boss, Oscar Park and Celestial Halo. They all remain nicely priced, even at non runner no bet. Go on treat yourself!

Friday 29th February

Boo Watch: A somewhat quiet first round and he sits at Level Par and 33^rd place. A shame I didn't go for my alternate bet – Donald to beat Garcia...

Racing is disappointing in a pre Cheltenham way today. I'll skip it.

So for the challenge let's put up the weekend football bet. I know it's boring but I'm still after Newcastle. They haven't let us down yet in their hoplessness. Blackburn look to have got through their wobbles and have only lost three times away from home this season. +0.25 looks just about the best bet available.

£500 Challenge

£20 Blackburn +0.25 at 1.7 or better.

(For those confused by Asians, that's effectively two bets. £10 on Blackburn getting something out of the game, and £10 on Blackburn with money back on a draw. Betdaq are much better than Betfair for asians and only charge 2% commission).

Thursday 28th February

Well the two possible bets won yesterday, so Boo's stuffed!

I spent a very useful afternoon researching unders/overs football bets. I think I have a good handle on pricing for that now.

Today I was hoping the Racing Post tissue for the Novice chase match at Taunton between Nicholls and Pipe was going to be available – sadly not. Blaeberry should win easily at Ludlow but a long odds on favourite from the Lavelle stable certainly isn't for me. I'll avoid both races.

I could put a football match up for the weekend but will save it, and look at the handicap chase at Ludlow instead.

Ludlow 3:50

Petitjean 4/1

Thistlecraft 4/1

Potts of Magic 9/2

Lindsay 9/2

Spring Lover 11/1

There's doubts about most of these, including the market leaders. It's a leap of faith to think Petitjean will run to his best just because he's fresh; Potts of Magic looks a plodder; Lindsay just about stays the trip – though weakening behind doubtful stayer Mokum last time hardly advertises that; Spring Lover has changed stables and the new one's not firing. Thistlecraft is no world beater but he is the one horse in the line-up in form. He has conditions to suit and should run his race. I don't think the race is as competitve as it may look at first glance.

£500 Challenge

Thistlecraft £4 ew at 11/2 guaranteed, and £12 place at Evens or better

Wednesday 27th February

Good grief – did the earth move for you last night? I woke to the sound of a freight train coming through the bedroom, and immediately suffered a traumatic flashback to the night of the flood.

I have experienced an earthquake before in Seattle, so after a) arming myself against intruders; b) checking all possible sources of flooding; c) checking the boiler for explosions; d) generally stumbling naked round the house; e) having a pee; f) answering an array of pointless questions from wife who hadn't heard earthquake; it immediately occurred to me half an hour later that it may have been an earthquake!

I fired up the laptop to see. Bizarrely I'd recommend the betfair racing forum as the quickest source of news as the first posting about the earthquake was at 01:00 exactly, a good ten minutes quicker than newsnow.com or the BBC.

So, flood and earthquake down – fire, pestilence and plague now boarding...

After that night's sleeplessness (and my wife said I had one of my nightmares later where I scream in my sleep – she thinks I was probably reliving the flood, but it's more likely I was reliving the Stoke game from last night), I'm not surprised that the challenge bet is a bit off-piste.

I narrowed the day to three choices.

Firstly, I looked at Beggars Cap at Southwell, but 4/11 doesn't appeal about a horse that can't even beat Chaninbar, regardless of how poor the opposition looks.

Secondly I considered unders in the Middlesbrough/Sheff Utd replay. I think I need to do some work on pricing for this type of bet, because I don't have any confidence about whether there's any value in the price, so I passed.

Finally, I ended up looking at Boo Weekley in a moderate Honda Classic field, as the player with the most solid current form and the best decent course form. He's actually ranked third this year in the stats. However, being a challenge bet we won't be greedy.

£500 Challenge

Boo Weekley £2 ew at 28/1 and £16 top 10 at 11/4+

Tuesday 26th February

Fandani would be a possibility this afternoon against perennial seconder Nikola. Remarkably though I think we're probably on safer ground back in the Championship, with our new favourite team Stoke. Preston are priced on their recent improvement, which in truth doesn't amount to much. Stoke can't stop scoring and are now clear top-rated team in the division.

Being the Championship we'll keep the draw on-side.

£500 Challenge

Stoke £25 at 4/5 to beat Preston (Draw no Bet).

Monday 25th February

I was impressed by Oscar Park yesterday, a lively chance for the Sun Alliance in an open year.

Hereford 3:00

Silver Sister has potential as an each way bet (or place only, or 20/80). I'd like to see which way the price of the favourite's going to go first though – the market is always very informative with Evan Williams's runners.

So – to football.

All season I've thought Man City overrated and that sneaking 1-0 home wins wouldn't last. Then they beat Man Utd and prove what a judge I am! I'll keep paddling though. Everton are slightly better than a 66% chance to get something out of this evening's tie on my tissue.

£500 Challenge

Everton £25 +0.5 at 1.6 or better

Sunday 24th February

I need to get out and plant 75 hornbeam plants before the League Cup Final so no hanging about!

A few choices on a surprisingly good day's racing. But in the end I plumped hesitantly on O'Maley in the 2:45 at Fontwell.

This looks a match between him and top class hurdler Oscar Park. He has to give 4lbs and Oscar Park won easily last time. On the other hand Oscar Park looked far from natural first time out and is old to be going chasing. O'Maley jumped poorly here on his debut also, but is getting better, keeps zooming round the course and should again get a soft lead. Oscar Park will probably have to be near as good as Air Force One to get past and I'll bet he isn't.

If he loses that will be some readjustment to the fund over one weekend – which will teach me to up the unit stake just as I take a flyer at some longer-priced horses than usual for the fund!

£500 Challenge

£25 win O'Maley at 5/2

Saturday 23rd February

You must know the challenge bet surely? We've backed him three times already! Hobbs Hill is surprisingly weak this morning but frankly I don't see much to fear in the opposition. Anything better than 4/6 is terrific. He remains the best novice I've seen this year.

Racing Post Chase 3:15 Kempton

Gungadu 6/1

Ungaro 6/1

Dream Alliance 7/1

Burntoakboy 8/1

Bagan 9/1

Simon 10/1

Palarshan 20/1

Ardaghey 20/1

Most of the juice long gone from this race but my ante post portfolio is pleasing. I'm inclined to dive in again this morning though. Dream Alliance ran a cracker in the Hennessey, but bounced to the moon in the Welsh National. He was then set to win last time out when unseating. This course should suit, Dickie is actually pretty good round here, and of Hobbs last 11 runners in this, 7 placed. I'm on at 25s and 20s, but want more at 14s. He is of course capable of running complete stinkers so instead of each way I should probably do savers on a couple – Ungaro and Burnoatkboy probably. However, I have them on-side in my racing fund anyway, and the place price is quite attractive (considering my tissue price and Hobbs record). I'll leave you to choose your own sensible insurance.

Football. Fulham desperately need to win today. It pains me to say it but they probably won't. Anything better than 1.5 West Ham getting something out of the game is fair.

£500 Challenge

Hobbs Hill £25 win at 4/6 or better

Dream Alliance £15 win £10 place at 14/1

Friday 22nd February

I ended up doing a 20/80 bet on Modicum yesterday after all that musing. I liked the way the horse held up in the betting and the ride bears close comparison to the one at Mussleburgh when he drifted alarmingly. A yard to beware.

Decent enough racing Sandown and Warwick today.

Unfortunately the non runner in the 2:20 has reduced the front runners and, worse, killed the place bet I had in mond for Roznic. Noland has a jump round in the 3:30. Not entirely sure why King of Angels is fave in the 4:40. Oakfield Legend looks more interesting. Arnold Layne and Petite Margot may be dutchable at Warwick.

So, some potential plays but nothing obvious bar the Arkle favourite. I'm afraid he'll have to do for the challenge – it's been a quiet week. 4/1on guaranteed looks fair – the sort of price for a novice chaser to get people reaching for the smelling salts!

£500 Challenge

Noland £25 win at 1/4guaranteed

Thursday 21st February

Oh well, as some of you say, the golf was at least fun! Woods and Mickelson pulled their games out of the fire to set us back and in the end we made a bearable loss. I'll put it on the scrapheap of half decent ideas, but I'd be interested how anyone gets on should they pursue it further.

I should have kept it simple as my original bet was going to be Appleby to beat Clark at 4/6!

Today's novice chase at Huntingdon is a real headscratcher.

Huntingdon 2:50

Modicum 9/4

Desert Quest 4/1

Wee Forbees 4/1

Royals Darling 5/1

Caraman 9/1

Modicum is weighted to win and can be forgiven the last run on bad ground. On the other hand he has 7 2^nd places from 12 runs, is ridden by Rose and is a Nicky Richards fave – which I always find worrying. I keep thinking a place bet at 4/5 is attractive but keep pulling away from recommending it.

Desert Quest has changed to the fledgling yard Gask is setting up, I think under Harry Findlay's patronage, and that could help him. He's got the class, and a track to suit, but prefers big fields and has looked far from natural. He is also badly weighted and prefers second to first.

Wee Forbees can be forgiven his first run and his second was a decent effort, where he kept up a relentless pace. He's been backed this morning which rather deters me from one possible way in – back him now to lay in running.

Royals Darling had a regresive profile last year, and I rather think the same will happen here. Again I was going to just suggest laying him, possibly even place laying, but he's drifted all morning accordingly. Caraman is from one of my fave stables, but is old to be chasing and has an overall record of 2-28. He does have a chance though, so you can see how tricky this is. Quinn has three decent horses here today and I'll do a cheeky treble.

However, I've looked at the race for a couple of hours now, so for the challenge the only sensible thing to do is to pass. I can't find anything else, so sadly today there is no bet.

Wednesday 20th February

Tiptoeing along nicely this week.

I can't find anything in tonight's football. And the racing continues to be frozen.

So, here's a bit of fun I've done for the last couple of years. One year was great, and one a bearable loss. The venue is the World Matchplay golf and the bet is all the outsiders in their first round matches. The format allows for a lot of randomness – it's a bit like playing only one set of tennis. One year 50% of outsiders won their matches. Naturally, today could be the day that order is restored but on a difficult day why not have a dabble. I've taken the best prices I can find, mainly Victor Chandler. Bluesq and Betfair. There's 32 matches, but taking out the Even money match bets leaves us with a neat 25 matches to play.

£500 Challenge

All £1 win

JB Holmes at 4/1

Oberholser at 7/4

Calcavecchia at 5/4

Dredge at 15/8

Karlsson at 11/8

Villegas at 6/4

S Hansen at 5/4

Byrd at 15/8

Alenby at 13/10

Katayama at 6/4

Jones at 9/4

Senden at 6/4

Perez at 5/2

Clark at 11/8

Snedeker at 5/4

Pampling at 13/8

O Hern at 5/4

P Hanson at 19/10

Green at 13/10

Chopra at 6/4

A Hansen at 6/4

Dougherty at 6/4

Montogomerie at 11/8

Kelly at 15/8

Jiminez 11/8

Tuesday 19th February

Just as well that penalty didn't go in last night!

The racing remains on ice. Domestic football throws up prices on ratings for several home teams that could be 'value', but I can fully see in each instance why bookies are looking to get the teams in the satchel.

Which leaves us with the Champions League, something I usually give a wide berth. I was reading all the foreign journalists in the Racing Post this morning and was quite taken by how sure they were that Inter Milan and Real Madrid were the best two sides around right now. Their league positions provide plenty of back-up to such a notion. I can't help but notice they are 4^th and 5^th favourites on the outright just now – patriotism and Barcelona hype pushing them to feasibly decent odds. They are already part of my portfolio, but I'm topping up this morning at 9/1 and 10/1.

More mundanely for tonight the bet I've ended up with is under 2.5 goals in the Chelsea match. Olympiakos is a tough place to go, and this looks like one of those patient smash and grab jobs Chelsea excel at in the league. It's no price, but probably fair.

£500 Challenge

Chelsea/Olympiakos £25 under 2.5 goals at 4/7

Monday 18th February

I was all set for Carlisle this afternoon, but the frost has left me looking at – yep – the Championship. So much for promises!

To be frank I haven't got a value play here. My case is built on my ratings, which have Crystal Palace slightly more highly rated than Bristol City, whilst their league position says the opposite. Hopefully, I've covered most bases to get something out of the game.

£500 Challenge

Crystal Palace £21 +0.5 asian handicap at 1.75 or better

£4 Bristol City 1 Crystal Palace 0 correct score at 13/2 or better

Sunday 17th February

Off to enjoy the winter sunshine of Shropshire, so briefly.

Towcester 4:20

The fave is 0-16 or something and has a serious case of the slows. That's not a great problem when the jockeys reach for the crampons at the foot of the hill at Towcester but even so the race is only 2m6f. Gaelic Gift has shaped with no more than a glimmer of ability against the best but should be more competitive in this poor mare's field. The weakness of the race provides a nice shape to the market.

£500 Challenge

Gaelic Gift £5 win at 7/2+ and £20 place at 4/6+

Saturday 16th February

Stoke came back from the dead last night. One of the benefits of backing odds on faves is that they often pull wins out of the fire against plucky losers. On the other hand, as I at least intimated beforehand, it just goes to show what a ridiculously mediocre league the championship is. I promise I won't pick another game from that division for a challenge bet this season.

A lot of decent racing today – I need to tread carefully.

Ascot 1:15

Joe Lively 4/1

Air Force One 4/1

Over the Creek 4/1

Albertas Run 9/2

Ice Tea 8/1

Battlecry 10/1

This is an interesting race. I can't get very excited about the front of the market here. Joe Lively has been flattered a couple of times and doesn't set an exacting standard; Air Force One is looking overhyped but promising, and Albertas Run's jumping needs to improve and as we know comes from stable misfiring. Over the Creek could be competitive on handicap form. Strangely I'm drawn to the last two. Battlecry let us down last week, but pulled too hard and made a big blunder when getting into it. If you forgive him that he has a similar chance to last week. Ice Tea is a horse I really like and who has already won twice for us this season, albeit at Hexham. This ground will suit, and I only regret there's not another runner for a great ew bet. I'm still playing at 20/1 though.

Ascot 2:25

Kauto Star 2/1on

Monets Garden 8/1

Racing demon 8/1

Fair Along 12/1

Vodka Bleu 20/1

Kauto Star's to lose. There has to be doubts about trip and course though. Ascot has been a funny place since the refurbishment. The home straight seems to throw up strange results as horses move from normal going onto what appears to be perpetually firm ground. Finding something to take advantage isn't easy though, especially if not keen on the next two in the market. I keep looking at Fair Along. I'd love to see Hobbs revert to old tactics and just let him bowl along in front, enjoy himself, and get them all at it. Not sure how I'll actually play it yet.

Haydock 1:05 and the Vodka Chase both look really tricky races, as does the 3:10 Wincanton, and I'll pass over them here.

Wincanton 3:40

Katchit Evens

Blythe Knight 3/1

Amaretto Rose 4/1

On the assumption Amaretto Rose isn't ready (which the vibes suggest), this looks a match. Blythe Knight is looking underrated on the back of his last run when the trainer was in very poor form and the horse had been on the go a long time. Refreshed and on a course that should suit he can really put it to Katchit, who is tough and genuine but who could struggle to make those qualities count on this track. 9/2 was cracking, 4/1 remains 'value'.

Football, I'll ignore the cup matches and stick with Swansea. Port Vale ship goals and would be the Derby of their league were it not for the two teams in administration keeping them company. The 4/5 earlier in the week was great – 1.75 remains acceptable.

£500 Challenge

(It's time we upped stakes again. I'll split the racing bets though)

Swansea £25 win at 1.75

Blythe Knight £19 win at 9/2 (4/1 ok)

Ice Tea £4.50 win at 20/1

(£1 double Blythe Knight and Ice Tea – say 100/1)

(50p treble Blythe Knight, Ice Tea and Fair Along – say 1750/1!)

Thursday 14th February

I'm off to London for a couple of days so will put up a challenge bet for today and tomorrow – not that you'll get rich on either of them.

Today. Frankie Figg should have little trouble winning at Kelso. He was in the process of giving Nevertika a real race when he fell first time out. His only credible opponent is very old to be going chasing and gave little encouragement first time out. I'm always a bit wary of Ho Jo but to be honest 2/1on is fair enough. He may well drift. I've matched half my bet this morning and left half as a trial of betfair's SP system.

Tomorrow. Stoke have reached the top of my ratings which, given the hopless mediocrity of this division, means they'll start losing.Scunthorpe have hit rock bottom – cue a row of wins! Despite these misgivings I'll play the ratings.

£500 Challenge

Frankie Figg £20 win at 4/7 (1/2ok)

Tomorrow

Stoke £20 win at 8/13 (4/6ok).

Weds 13th February

Disappointing end to the day yesterday.

Leicester's novice chase looks a tricky one. I'll play the handicap chase at 3:00 pm instead.

The way into this race is that I doubt Mokum will get home over 3m, particularly on this track. I'm surprised to see him fave to be honesy, so that must provide an opportunity elsewhere. Sadly, separating the wheat from the chaff isn't easy. I'll attack it in two ways.

Firstly I'll give Parkinson a chance at 11/2. He has been running badly of late, but hasn't had his conditions – which are basically a small field and a right handed track. Secondly I'll back Killard Point to place at Evens.This is the only horse in the field with solid credentials and though the weight could play against him in the win market he should be able gallop on into a place. I'd have him at least at 4/5 to place. We profit if either are right, with the possible bonus of collecting on both bets.

£500 Challenge

Parkinson £5 win at 11/2

Killard Point £15 place at Evens

Tuesday 12th February

Arsenal's 91^st minute goal was a bugger. At least Verasi kept us ticking over.

I've had real trouble this morning deciding on the challenge bet from 3 bets I have lined up. In the end I've fudged the staking – not something to please the professional purists, but has worked quite well when done in the past. I can see reasons not to bet any of them, but also could easily have put any one of them up.

Folkestone 2:30 sees a match and I'm not sure why it isn't 5/4 each of two. That being so we have to play the 6/4 Polinamix who at least has shown he can jump and has only been beaten by two very decent yardsticks.

Football and we get a chance to get after Bury again. This will be the last time if it goes wrong as their managerial change will be looking shrewd. However their victory and Wycombe's loss is inflating the price on the latter.

We can also stick with Crystal Palace who are odds on in my book, but the bookies are after them – not least due to their unfortunate habit of drawing 1-1 at home – feel free to cover that eventuality. I think I'll do the treble these bets as well.

£500 Challenge

£10 win Polinamix 6/4

£10 win Wycombe 6/4

£10 win Crystal Palace 13/10

Monday 11th February

Not the best of days yesterday, but to be frank my relief at Cameroon not winning the African Nations Cup overrides any disappointment at giving up half our stake on a hapless Chelsea, or on a very disappointing ride from Ruby.

The challenge has been suffering a readjustment over the last week or so though, and putting up two a day Saturday and Sunday was asking for trouble.

Today, Blackburn have a good record against Arsenal, but not their last three league matches away to them. Odds of 4/5 getting 1.5 goals headstart are tempting but not for the challenge.

Two novice chases at Plumpton left then. In the second one I'm no fan of Adopted Hero. I am a fan of Andrew Balding NH horses and Kerviou ran well at Ludlow last time. I also have an inkling for Give Me A Dime. He tried to make a race of it with O'Maley last time and paid the price but he jumped well to that point. Gifford doesn't exactly fire in the chase winners at this course and you have to worry he may concentrate on getting a handicap mark, but I'd still like to keep him on-side.

So, for the challenge we are just left with one from our 'stable'. Verasi has already won for us twice and should really have a hat-trick. Double penalty and drying ground are both legititmate reasons to oppose him here, and I think he'll drift as money comes for the Nicholls horse. I'm hoping he'll go odds against, but 10/11 or better is fair.

£500 Challenge

Verasi £20 at 10/11+

Sunday 10th February

I'm out for lunch today so am not at all sure why I'm putting up two bets today.

Still, we have to continue with the theme of opposing Liverpool, especially away to Chelsea this afternoon. We can save half the stake on a draw using the asian handicaps, and at the price I actually have Chelsea to win.

Leopardstown 3:50

The Listener 5/2

Snowy Morning 5/2

Nickname 11/2

Mister Topnotch 10/1

The Listener likes it hock-deep, a soft lead, and this 3m is right at the limit of his stamina. Oh, and all his best form has come prior to January each season. Good reasons to find something to beat him. Nickname looks unlikley to get the trip. So, realistically that leaves the two improvers, of whom by far the most likely is Snowy Morning. Ruby has chosen him over most the field and although he hasn't got a rating on the board that would trouble these, this looks a good time to start. The 5/1 would have been great but Pricewise and an almond croissant this morning scuppered that. 4/1 still very fair. Save on Mister Topnotch if you will, my racing fund will.

At Exeter I'd have been interested in Dream Alliance (200/1 for the National worth a dabble), Bible Lord and King Louis but won't be around to price up and monitor, so will chuck them into doubles with Snowy and forget about them.

£500 Challenge

Chelsea £20 at 8/11 -0.25 asian handicap (4/6 ok)

Snowy Morning £20 win at 4/1

Saturday 9th February

Don't forget the Villa game lunchtime – recommended yesterday.

Today, I'll add Bradford to the mix to beat Bury at 4/5. Bury are woeful and probably the price is being offered in places due to the football myth that new managers improve teams for their first few games. We'll make this a challenge bet.

I haven't a clear-cut racing bet today and should probably stick with the football for the challenge, but as most readers are primarily racing fans let's cobble something together.

Newbury 1:35

Heres Johnny 9/4

Mr Strachan 3/1

Battlecry 4/1

Ornais 11/2

A sketchy tissue. I can see reasons not to like a couple of these though. Ornais was flattered when beating Joe Lively as the race fell in his lap off a ridiculous pace, and he needs to improve his jumping. Here's Johnny also has Joe Lively formlines, but it looked to me that 3m really stretches him. A trip on the other hand is what Mr Strachan and Battlecry need. The former outstayed our old friend Kruguyrova and Battlecry has been wanting a trip all season. At 11-2 I'll play the latter and save on Mr Strachan.

Newbury 2:10

Voy Per Ustedes 6/4

Master Minded 6/4

L'antartique 8/1

Mahogany Blaze 8/1

The last two named are favourites of mine – can't see this suiting them though. I've never been in Voy Per Ustedes' camp – Alan King is a real expert at peaking horses and they can run stinkers accordingly. VPU did last year in this, which is a worry. Master Minded couldn't have been any more impressive on his debut and it's clear connections think he may be yet another special one. On the book this is a big ask and I couldn't make him a 'value' bet, but do feel this is his on the way to giving Nicholls a headache over whether to run him in the Champion Chase or Ryanair.

Newbury 3:20

Can't be arsed to put the tissue up. Suffice to say I have shortlisted 18 of the runners – so take your pick! For me, that means delving down into the lower reaches of the market. And for your delectation I have plumped for Pace Shot at any price you want. This is natuarally a huge stab in the dark – he won a seller two runs back for crissakes. Still, you can forgive him floundering in Sandown's mud last time out, his trainer is a wizard at 2m hurdle handicappers and for a horse that once came 4^th in a Triumph he's settled nicely in the weights. Naturally, he's much more likely to be tailed off and pulled up after a mile, but with 17 quality opponents I'd rather cadge a ride with him than back one of the market leaders at silly odds. Kings Quay is one of my stable horses. I'll play him as well, but in my head, whilst the flat track is Ok, he's a speed course horse.

We'll avoid Kruguyrova in a tricky heat (though I'm sure my mugpunter head will force a punt). Which leaves Ayr.

Ayr 2:55

Cloudy Lane evens

Jonnys Kick 4/1

Cloudy Lane is a bit of a hype horse and he won't be hit here. He also has to give close to two stone in soft ground to the only other legitimate contender. On the other hand he travels so well, and Jonny's Kick looks very likely to bounce. Again, no proper value, just a sense that Cloudy Lane will continue on the up. (For what it's worth I wouldn't be so keen on his National chances – he may make a fool of me, but I think he may lack the stamina when push comes to shove).

I think my get rich quick scheme will focus on Master Minded and Cloudy Lane and build up trebles etc around them.

So – two lots of challenge bets today.

£500 Challenge

£20 Bradford beat Bury at 4/5

£6 Battlecry at 11/2

£6 Master Minded at 6/4

£6 Cloudy Lane at 5/4

£1 win Pace Shot at 200/1+ and £1 place at 20/1+

Friday 8th February

The African Nations Cup was the book I had earmarked to replace the salary my wife has given up by going part-time. I thought it was plain sailing, but now not only are Egypt playing just to keep me in profit, but also to avoid Cameroon making me squeal like a pig. Cameroon were desperate last night – a sort of disorganised Bolton – surely they can't....

A decent card at Kempton today.

2:05 Kempton

Barbers Shop 5/4

Oscar Park 3/1

Russian Around 7/2

Star Shot 20/1

Henderson should have a line on Russian Around but I still like the latter's chances. Whilst Oscar Park probably should be 2^nd fave, this looks short and fast enough for him, and he ran like a dog last time. Russian Around on the other hand, overcame what looked like a bounce and ran well last time, and this speed track should suit. Assuming the dead eight run he looks a fair ew bet – seeing as he's 1.5 the place on betfair currently.

3:10 Kempton

Gwanako evens

Miss Mitch 9/4

Mister Quasimodo 9/1

Nirvana Du Bourg 20/1

Nicholls seems to have really sussed out these graduation chases and I'm a bit wary of opposing him again. We have backed Mister Quasimodo before and this is more like his thing after losing his way upped in grade. He probably prefers a more galloping track though. Miss Mitch jumped beautifully first time out, and was going similarly well until putting her hind legs in the water at Wincanton. There is a doubt about her wellbeing and confidence after that, but on the other hand she gets loads of weight from most of these. I thik I'll play, and save on Quasimodo, and do the double. And why not aim for the moon and treble up in the tricky handicap with Briery Fox and Herecomestanley.

However, after last week's success I'm inclined to stick with tomorrow's football for the challenge bet. And I don't see much reason this weekend not to continue the somewhat boring, but considerably profitable theme of opposing Newcastle, Bury and Liverpool!

Aston Villa are 8/11 with me to beat Newcastle who continue to lack invention and cutting edge. Villa score freely, and although they do concede, Newcastle haven't scored more than one away from home since August. Villa were beaten somewhat surreally by Fulham at the weekend and that may explain why they are nearly Evens in place, along with the lingering punter belief that Keegan is going to turn the oil tanker around rather than run it aground.

£500 Challenge

Aston Villa £20 beat Newcastle at 10/11+

Thursday 7th February

The novice chase looks very informative today with Leading Attraction and Karanja making debuts off a long break and Mith Hill stepping into the fray. One to watch though. The juvenile hurdle at Huntingdon looks similarly one to note for the future rather than to punt.

That was going to leave me looking at the African Nations semi-finals. My overall book on the tournament sees me profiting as long as Cameroon don't win, and from what I've seen there's little doubt Ivory Coast are the best team. However, it's not best recommended to press up on a the knock-out stages of a football comp I've only had on in the background!

Luckily, Cathedral Rock caught my eye. He's won for us before and is now in a novice handicap – something I usually avoid at all costs. Still, he looked to have a good engine that day and this is a pretty humdrum race. Gifford is in cracking form and has won this race before. Cheekpieces not so inspiring. We can cover ourselves for a place.

£500 Challenge

Cathedral Rock £5 win at 3/1 and £15 place at 4/6.

Weds February 6th

After yesterday's experience with the novice chasers I'm a touch shy of plunging in again. Still, here goes!

The 2:10 Ludlow is a likeable shape, not least because old friend Harringay is favourite. Now 0-8 in chases, though to be fair was travelling well last time, when O'Regan failed to count to three. Earth Man opposes but isn't one to have a lot of faith in. That leaves Menchikov. Henderson's been on fire with his virgin novices off a long break, and even yesterday's faller was going well at the time. Menchikov is rated way higher than Earth Man over hurdles, and 15/8 looks a decent price in a three horse race with two I don't like.

The 2:55 Carlisle looks a penalty kick for Circassian, and I'm surprised (and a little worried) that he's not odds on.

Let's combine for the challenge so that we profit if one wins.

£500 Challenge

Menchikov £8 win at 15/8 (7/4 OK)

Circassian £12 win at 11/10 (Evens OK)

Tuesday 5th February

There are two novice chases today of interest. Difficult to find an early price bet though. Negus De Beaumont is supposedly Murphy's best novice and I've already had a small bet for the Sun Alliance. That looks wasted though and this confidence booster over a trip too short won't tell us much. There are a couple of decent opponents here, especially McCain's. 5/4 is probably fair and I'd probably back him if he drifts badly as looks likely, but for now I'll sit tight.

The novice chase at Market Rasen looks a match and with the French raider an unknown quantity it's hard to price up. I'd probably side with Theatre Diva, but Venetia Williams' course form hardly inspires confidence and he'd have to drift similarly to Negus for me to become interested.

So, it looks like football will carry the challenge money again.

Stockport are away to Bury. I was updating my ratings and see that Bury are now bottom of my ratings, despite being only 4^th bottom in the table. Stockport's away form is decent and this league seems to have gone away win mad this year. MK Dons must have loved being able to quench their goal-thirst at Bury over the weekend, and I'll take Stockport, whilst protecting some of our bet in the case of a draw, especially as 11/10 is actually my ratings price for Stockport to win.

£500 challenge

Stockport £20 at 11/10 (bigger available) -0.25 asian handicap

Monday 4th February

No question I rode my luck this weekend. Quite apart from Tiger's and Middlesbrough's late rallies, it was the bets I could have done that played out well. I could easily have laid Fulham, backed the Patriots and indeed England's rugby team. It would be easy to congratulate myself on my decision making, but with the wind in a different direction I could easily have got all 5 the wrong way round.

That said, a book I read recently has had a very calming effect on my betting, although the book itself is nothing to do with betting. The book is Nasim Nicholas Taleb's “Black Swan”, (and an earlier book of his “Fooled by Randomness”).

I'm indebted to the systemites from theracingforum.co.uk for introducing me to the books. They are essentially philosphical treatises on financial markets , and whilst not directly applicable to sports trading have a lot to say about how we approach trading. I've found the chapters around “noise” very helpful, and they have really helped me with something I have been struggling with for 30 months - dealing with the transition from part-time gambler to full-time gambler.

Distinguishing between being seen to work (including by yourself) and actual useful work, was something I was pretty good at in the old office world. But it's much more subtle as a full-time gambler and I think I fell into the trap of doing lots of stuff that gave the illusion of being a full-time gambler but didn't provide any real edge. It's a form of 'busyness' for the sake of proving to those around you (and yourself) that you really are doing a proper job (even though, of course you're not). I think a more meditative approach has really sharpened my game. That said, Taleb would be the first to tell me I'm proably just fooling myself. Let's see if I think the same after the inevitable 8 consecutive losers!

I think I'll return to this subject.

However, today is the first day of my wife's new working life. She has gone part-time, and from now on Mondays will be the old Sundays. So, we're off for a walk, and there'll be no challenge bet today.

Sunday 3rd February

I could be tempted into plays on Villa, Ivory Coast and the rugby in-running, on a day for hiding from the wind.

Let's hope I'm in a good mood by then as the main bet will be the early game. Newcastle have had just two shots on target in the last three games. Middlesbrough are going through a pretty decent patch, and I already have them rated the higher team. I'd go more like 4/6 that they'll get something from the game.

£500 Challenge

Middlesbrough +0.5 Asian handicap £20 at 4/5 or better

(shades of 10/11 available on Betdaq).

Saturday 2nd February

Quick and easy this snowy Saturday – well at least it's deep and crisp and even (and bloody cold) in sunny Shropshire, I expect my old stamping ground is mild and slushy at best!

Sandown 3:10

Anyone paying any attention will already know what I'm going to say as we've already backed him twice in the challenge. Hobbs Hill has beaten his two main rivals here hollow and I can't see much reason why they should turn tables – Silverburn off worse weights, Lead On not proven much by beating Predateur. Wee Robbie was gifted that race last week and to be honest the only one that bothers me is Henderson's back off a long break. Hobbs Hill seems to have been underrated every time he's run, and this morning he's notably weak again. I'm already on at very near 2/1, and just praying for no non runners!

£500 Challenge

Hobbs Hill £20 at 7/4 (anything over 5/4 to be honest)

Don't forget Darlington, advised yesterday. Tiger is currently doing his best to make this the first tournament he's lost from the front.

Friday February 1

A strange Friday – scratching around for anything. The racing is dire. I can see Presenting Copper beating Royals Darling at this course and at the revised weights, but otherwise nothing.

So for the challenge let's go to tomorrow's football, as I rarely put a football bet up on Saturday for the challenge. I'm on MK Dons and Swansea for their divisions and a big pay-out double awaits, but the Dons are a cause for disquiet at the moment. So, whilst I believe this bet is value, it also acts as a form of hedge for me.

Darlington look the best team in the division to be honest. They have finally topped my ratings and their defensive record looks like it may be the difference. Wrexham are not as bad as they were but just don't score. I really think Darlington should be odds on for this one. Save on 0-0 if you must.

£500 Challenge

Darlington to beat Wrexham £20 at 11/10

Friday February 1 - review of £500 Challenge

Here's the monthly summary of progress to date:

£500 Challenge

Fund currently stands at: £907.42

Football bets

35 bets

21 winners

143% returns

Racing Bets

98 bets

44 winners

118% returns

All bets

145 bets

70 winners

117% returns.