Sunday 17th August

“£500 Challenge Bet” (£1149 – 4 bets inplay – accounted)

Really good run lately. I don't feel I've made enough of it – but then my staking strategy is bound to seem hopelessly conservative in good times and it's important to remember what it saves me through the bad times.

I've already had my bet for today – the Chinese women in the quadruple skulls, which was a remarkable example of patriotic prices skewing the market. I was close to doing them as a barking bet at 1.3 after the heats, and they were 1.9 at the off in the face of a Great Britain challenge and Steven Redgrave hype. He's plainly not as good a judge as Michael Johnson who actually predicted Bolt's finishing time yesterday – now that's top topping!

I probably should now sit out the rest of the day but the football has drawn me in. We'll blame Billy if it all goes Pete Tong.

Aston Villa are only a fair price on my ratings to win today, given that I missed the evens that was available earlier in the week. However, if you overlay the almost certain improvement O'Neill will squeeze out of them, and the almost certain implosion of City (one of the worst run clubs imaginable) then 5/6 looks fair enough.

We'll split bets with Chelsea. Who always seem to be drawing at half time in their matches at home, (not far off 50% in the last few seasons) before winning second half. Portsmouth are more than capable of keeping it tight.

Aston Villa £15 win at 5/6
Chelsea £12.50 draw half-time at 7/4 (15/8 is available for some)
£2.50 Draw/Chelsea at 7/2

“Barking Bets” (Banked £875/Current bank £2905)
Bolt landed us a double whammy and pulled me into profit for the week. I banked a modest £100 and am now up to £290 per bet. Can't find one today though – should have done Rebecca Romero but was too busy chewing a chocolate criossant.