I'll go for three outsiders in the Paddy Power itself: Divers and Quantitative Easing represent the novice handicap form from the festival. People are crabbing that in comparison to the Wishful Thinking form which is fair enough, but weight and prices more than compensate. And I feel obliged to throw in Fine Parchment ew as well, as an old friend, albeit one in very deep here.
The previous race is a shocker, and the only one I couldn't crab is Chicago Grey. I'll cover Hey Big Spender as well at the price.
As for football, we may be gash, but 5/1 England is a bit silly - you can immediately arb it on betfair for starters. I'd go 7/2 tops, and don't come on here laughing when we've been beaten 5-0! Chuck in Northampton at a generous 9/4 to beat Luton in the cup.
Be lucky....
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Saturday, October 15, 2011
Ascot Champion's Day
Frankel has to be opposed at the price, on no good grounds, and the one who stands out is Immortal Verse (£40 8/1). Poet's Voice and Dick Turpin also silly prices so worth fivers each just in case we have a typical end of season day.
So You Think also opposable by half the field, as you wish. I'll major on Dubai Prince and add in Nehaam for an each way treble.
For football betting - Stoke look the wrong price at home to Fulham. My team remain gash away from home, and I'd rather write off the 6-0 derby win as a freak. Stoke have only had 17 shots all season, apparently. Best save on 0-0!
Be lucky...
So You Think also opposable by half the field, as you wish. I'll major on Dubai Prince and add in Nehaam for an each way treble.
For football betting - Stoke look the wrong price at home to Fulham. My team remain gash away from home, and I'd rather write off the 6-0 derby win as a freak. Stoke have only had 17 shots all season, apparently. Best save on 0-0!
Be lucky...
Saturday, October 08, 2011
Cesarewitch
So, one last chance for the season, in one of my favourite races, the one with the quirky draw bias.
My darts against the field include two of the favourites but at these prices that's OK.
Sentry Duty and Beyond have the conditions, draw, and trainers. One for the frame at a price is Bow to No one each way
For football fans: Brentford at Carlisle at 2/1+ and Liechtenstein can give Scotland a game again - 9/2+ the draw is too long.
And, of course, as regulars will know, the England rugby price was terrible!
Be lucky...
My darts against the field include two of the favourites but at these prices that's OK.
Sentry Duty and Beyond have the conditions, draw, and trainers. One for the frame at a price is Bow to No one each way
For football fans: Brentford at Carlisle at 2/1+ and Liechtenstein can give Scotland a game again - 9/2+ the draw is too long.
And, of course, as regulars will know, the England rugby price was terrible!
Be lucky...
Sunday, October 02, 2011
Arc de Triomphe
Opposing Sarafina and So You Think in the ante post market has left me with a nice looking book, with Workforce, Galikova, Snow Fairy, Reliable Man, Hiruno Damour and St Nicholas Abbey all providing profit.
But now it's time to decide and despite Pricewise beating me to it, I'm siding with Hiruno Damour. It's about time the Japanese landed this, and in a race where you can make a case for and against the entire field, he's the one who looks priced wrong. Reliable Man at double figures also.
Be lucky...
But now it's time to decide and despite Pricewise beating me to it, I'm siding with Hiruno Damour. It's about time the Japanese landed this, and in a race where you can make a case for and against the entire field, he's the one who looks priced wrong. Reliable Man at double figures also.
Be lucky...
Friday, September 30, 2011
Scotland v England
Long-time readers, those who remember the good years, not the Saturday Gambler years I'm reduced to, will know that my key betting question is why might the odds be wrong.
And one of those is blind patriotism, and tomorrow morning's Scotland/England showdowns is one where the prices are just wrong. No doubt England are the stronger team, and should ease their way to the semi-finals, but not at 1.2 Somewhere between 1.4 and 1.5 maybe.
They've spent a decade scraping through matches on Wilkinson's boot and not even that is guaranteed tomorrow, nor is their ability to play the referee. The price is further skewed by the notion that Scotland will have to play loose to win by 8 points, but that's white noise adding another point to an already generous handicap.
If I was still a pro I'd be playing +10.5 for profit and Scotland at 6s for glory. Of course, as we know I'm no longer a pro...
Be lucky...
And one of those is blind patriotism, and tomorrow morning's Scotland/England showdowns is one where the prices are just wrong. No doubt England are the stronger team, and should ease their way to the semi-finals, but not at 1.2 Somewhere between 1.4 and 1.5 maybe.
They've spent a decade scraping through matches on Wilkinson's boot and not even that is guaranteed tomorrow, nor is their ability to play the referee. The price is further skewed by the notion that Scotland will have to play loose to win by 8 points, but that's white noise adding another point to an already generous handicap.
If I was still a pro I'd be playing +10.5 for profit and Scotland at 6s for glory. Of course, as we know I'm no longer a pro...
Be lucky...
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Cambridgeshire
Running out of time to land my first flat winner!
And not the easiest place to start. Still, three prices I do like:
Credit Swap - why not a repeat success in a quirky race?
Albaqaa - progressive?
Pendragon - will love conditions and can improve on last year's placing
There's been a bias to front-runners this meeting (I haven't seen any racing but am guessing a tailwind). Maqaraat in position to benefit, and can hopefully drag a couple of mine along with him.
Football - Hartlepool look too big at 2/1 at Bournemouth.
Credit Swap £10ew at 33/1
Pendragon £10ew at 40/1
Albaqaa £15ew at 20/1
Music Show (can't resist, but boy has she been disappointing this year) £10 at 20/1
Music Show/Credit Swap and Pendragon and Albaqaa/Golden Delicious trebles
to win £30000+
Be lucky....
And not the easiest place to start. Still, three prices I do like:
Credit Swap - why not a repeat success in a quirky race?
Albaqaa - progressive?
Pendragon - will love conditions and can improve on last year's placing
There's been a bias to front-runners this meeting (I haven't seen any racing but am guessing a tailwind). Maqaraat in position to benefit, and can hopefully drag a couple of mine along with him.
Football - Hartlepool look too big at 2/1 at Bournemouth.
Credit Swap £10ew at 33/1
Pendragon £10ew at 40/1
Albaqaa £15ew at 20/1
Music Show (can't resist, but boy has she been disappointing this year) £10 at 20/1
Music Show/Credit Swap and Pendragon and Albaqaa/Golden Delicious trebles
to win £30000+
Be lucky....
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Ayr Gold Cup
Wonder if I'll pick a winner of a flat race this season!
Running out of time, and I can't say the Ayr Gold Cup is one of my favourite races.
Still. I think the Fahey horses and Pepper Lane should make low the place to be. My tissue has Mayson as favourite, so let's start there, solid each way at 5 places.
The two to back him up are Kaldoun Kingdom and the Irish raider Croisultan.
In the football, I'm taken with QPR at 3/1 or better at Wolves, and Bradford at 4/1 or better to beat shell-shocked Crawley. Back at Ayr, he's no price but Poet could get a soft lead in the listed race. These can all make up the 1000/1 four fold
£25ew Moysan 18/1
£10 Kaldoun Kingdom 16/1
£10 Croisultan 16/1
and fcs
£10 acca Moysan/QPR/Bradford/Poet for c £10000
Be lucky...
Running out of time, and I can't say the Ayr Gold Cup is one of my favourite races.
Still. I think the Fahey horses and Pepper Lane should make low the place to be. My tissue has Mayson as favourite, so let's start there, solid each way at 5 places.
The two to back him up are Kaldoun Kingdom and the Irish raider Croisultan.
In the football, I'm taken with QPR at 3/1 or better at Wolves, and Bradford at 4/1 or better to beat shell-shocked Crawley. Back at Ayr, he's no price but Poet could get a soft lead in the listed race. These can all make up the 1000/1 four fold
£25ew Moysan 18/1
£10 Kaldoun Kingdom 16/1
£10 Croisultan 16/1
and fcs
£10 acca Moysan/QPR/Bradford/Poet for c £10000
Be lucky...
Saturday, September 10, 2011
St Leger
I'm under the weather this morning but the St Leger prices are also hurting my head.
My tissue had Sea Moon at 6/4, and Seville backable too.
Make of it what you will, I'll just throw the money.
£80 Sea Moon 2/1
£20 Seville 10/1
Be lucky...
My tissue had Sea Moon at 6/4, and Seville backable too.
Make of it what you will, I'll just throw the money.
£80 Sea Moon 2/1
£20 Seville 10/1
Be lucky...
Saturday, September 03, 2011
Haydock Sprint
Two races worth playing today, and of course I fully expect to win the scoop 6 with my £8 perm later...need to after a week's holiday in Copenhagen!
The 1m6f handicap doesn't look too hot. Tominator (£25 at 8/1) has every chance if there's enough pace, and Shernando (£25 at 9/1) looks progressive enough. With Pricewise interfering the prices aren't much to get excited about but I'll play.
In the sprint, Bated Breath (£25 at 7/1) has his conditions and I suppose is bet of the day. However, I can't let Delegator (£15 at 10/1) go unbacked against my better judgement, and we need to do a saver on Hoof It (£10 at 11/2) back at 6f.
Be lucky...
The 1m6f handicap doesn't look too hot. Tominator (£25 at 8/1) has every chance if there's enough pace, and Shernando (£25 at 9/1) looks progressive enough. With Pricewise interfering the prices aren't much to get excited about but I'll play.
In the sprint, Bated Breath (£25 at 7/1) has his conditions and I suppose is bet of the day. However, I can't let Delegator (£15 at 10/1) go unbacked against my better judgement, and we need to do a saver on Hoof It (£10 at 11/2) back at 6f.
Be lucky...
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Ebor
Is it really six years since the great Sergeant Cecil kicked off a right royal hooley in my old house in Tooting? It's the last time I picked the winner that's for sure.
14 horses have credible chances of winning this, so it's throwing darts time. Cill Rialaig and the canny Hughie Morrison have to be included, and Harlestone Times is probably wrongly-priced now having flunked twice. Chuck in Neeham, with money back if we can get one in the frame.
In the Melrose Wayward Glance caught my eye and then got the thumbs-up from Gerald Delamere.
And in the listed 2 miler Opinion Poll and Harris Tweed look rock solid, with Dandino also worthy of support at the prices, in a race full of horses I don't much care for.
So, something like:
Opinion Poll £25 7/2
Harris Tweed £15 7/2
Dandino £10 11/1
Wayward Glance £10ew at 25/1
Neeham £10ew 20/1
Harlestone Times £10ew 25/1
CillRilaig £10 ew 22/1
(1st 5, bog)
Dandino/Wayward Glance and the three Ebor darts in trebles to win the 50k
Be lucky...
14 horses have credible chances of winning this, so it's throwing darts time. Cill Rialaig and the canny Hughie Morrison have to be included, and Harlestone Times is probably wrongly-priced now having flunked twice. Chuck in Neeham, with money back if we can get one in the frame.
In the Melrose Wayward Glance caught my eye and then got the thumbs-up from Gerald Delamere.
And in the listed 2 miler Opinion Poll and Harris Tweed look rock solid, with Dandino also worthy of support at the prices, in a race full of horses I don't much care for.
So, something like:
Opinion Poll £25 7/2
Harris Tweed £15 7/2
Dandino £10 11/1
Wayward Glance £10ew at 25/1
Neeham £10ew 20/1
Harlestone Times £10ew 25/1
CillRilaig £10 ew 22/1
(1st 5, bog)
Dandino/Wayward Glance and the three Ebor darts in trebles to win the 50k
Be lucky...
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Following Losers
As I continue my quest for a flat winner, whilst only watching a couple of races a week, this morning I find myself looking at two horses that have already lost for me twice each this season.
My prices suggest they remain value, but my prices aren't worth what they were!
Still, chocks away.
£40 Yaseer 11/1
£40 Delegator 6/1
£10 double
£10 Frankie 4 timer
Be lucky...
My prices suggest they remain value, but my prices aren't worth what they were!
Still, chocks away.
£40 Yaseer 11/1
£40 Delegator 6/1
£10 double
£10 Frankie 4 timer
Be lucky...
Saturday, August 06, 2011
Rose of Lancaster
I'm not sure I've backed a winner this flat season. Just as well I had that run of big-priced winners at the start of the year. This is what comes of only watching a couple of races a week as opposed to a couple of hundred.
Doesn't seem much point studying form, so I'll go for a jockey this week. Neil Callan goes to Haydock to ride Hot Prospect - the new twist on the old M Jarvis/P Robinson foray to Haydock. What I know of the form and conditions makes the horse look plausible. He then attempts to get back to Newmarket for the outsider in the last. Less plausible, but I'm smitten.
For the treble, why not try Freddie Jacobsen, tucked in behind the leaders in the golf - if only to stop you wasting money on the farce that is Ascot.
Something like
£60 Hot Prospect at 4/1
£10 Bella Noir at 20/1
£10ew double
£10 tbl with Freddie returns about 20k
Be lucky...
Doesn't seem much point studying form, so I'll go for a jockey this week. Neil Callan goes to Haydock to ride Hot Prospect - the new twist on the old M Jarvis/P Robinson foray to Haydock. What I know of the form and conditions makes the horse look plausible. He then attempts to get back to Newmarket for the outsider in the last. Less plausible, but I'm smitten.
For the treble, why not try Freddie Jacobsen, tucked in behind the leaders in the golf - if only to stop you wasting money on the farce that is Ascot.
Something like
£60 Hot Prospect at 4/1
£10 Bella Noir at 20/1
£10ew double
£10 tbl with Freddie returns about 20k
Be lucky...
Saturday, July 30, 2011
The Stewards Cup
Fingers crossed our horse doesn't die this afternoon.
Tipsters today:
1) One of the longest-standing systems I look out for is when a respected tipster goes out on a limb on a long-priced one. It takes a lot of faith, and deep gut instinct to commit yourself to print on a horse written off by others, trust me, particularly if you're a respected judge. And there's hardly a better judge of sprinters than Emily Weber so it's notable that not only has she spotlighted Brave Prospector this morning, but actually napped him. 33/1 must be a play if, like me, you missed 40s.
2) I always read Gerald Delamere's thoughts closely. Strange then that I've had a humdrum Goodwood (which I thankfully spared you!), and yet he's picked 8 winners from 11 bets this week according to the front page of the Racing Post. Which advertisement probably explains why Colonel Mak is all the rage this morning. Does look like a plot horse though.
3) My own pick is Crown Choice at 20/1+. I'll back all three and do forecasts and for the get rich treble perm them with Novellen lad and Investissement.
Be lucky...
Tipsters today:
1) One of the longest-standing systems I look out for is when a respected tipster goes out on a limb on a long-priced one. It takes a lot of faith, and deep gut instinct to commit yourself to print on a horse written off by others, trust me, particularly if you're a respected judge. And there's hardly a better judge of sprinters than Emily Weber so it's notable that not only has she spotlighted Brave Prospector this morning, but actually napped him. 33/1 must be a play if, like me, you missed 40s.
2) I always read Gerald Delamere's thoughts closely. Strange then that I've had a humdrum Goodwood (which I thankfully spared you!), and yet he's picked 8 winners from 11 bets this week according to the front page of the Racing Post. Which advertisement probably explains why Colonel Mak is all the rage this morning. Does look like a plot horse though.
3) My own pick is Crown Choice at 20/1+. I'll back all three and do forecasts and for the get rich treble perm them with Novellen lad and Investissement.
Be lucky...
Saturday, July 23, 2011
King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes
This needn't detain us long. Ladbrokes go 4/1 guaranteed about Rewilding. Which is too long. I like that Ladbrokes no longer have their prices on oddschecker, it makes them willing to take a stance, and I'll hope they're wrong this time. Workforce worthy favourite but you have to worry about his run in this last year, Ascot is a strange track at the best of times. Frankie, small field, Ascot, pacemaker, kid on St Nicholas Abbey, all positives. I priced closer to 5/2.
Hanagan stays up in York for some humdrum looking rides, god day to chuck some doubles to stop yourself playing too many races otherwise...enjoy the sun, or settle down to the cricket and Tour De France...
Rewilding £75 win at 4/1
Be lucky...
Hanagan stays up in York for some humdrum looking rides, god day to chuck some doubles to stop yourself playing too many races otherwise...enjoy the sun, or settle down to the cricket and Tour De France...
Rewilding £75 win at 4/1
Be lucky...
Saturday, July 09, 2011
July Cup and John Smith's Day and...
I'm convinced Delegator is way better than these. The draw is a worry, but presumably Frankie will drop him in for cover anyway. £50 at 5/1 looks very fair.
At Ascot Side Glance would be co-fave in my book, so he has to be a play. £30 win at 5/2.
And in the John Smith's. I haven't seen much racing this year but thought Kay Gee Bee's race at York was a sighter for this and interested that Hanagan keeps the faith. You can forgive a horse any Ascot outing, particularly if this was the target. You have to worry about the trip, but that's in the price at 28/1. £15ew
It's a 600/1 treble, so you'd best chuck a few quid at that as well.
At Ascot Side Glance would be co-fave in my book, so he has to be a play. £30 win at 5/2.
And in the John Smith's. I haven't seen much racing this year but thought Kay Gee Bee's race at York was a sighter for this and interested that Hanagan keeps the faith. You can forgive a horse any Ascot outing, particularly if this was the target. You have to worry about the trip, but that's in the price at 28/1. £15ew
It's a 600/1 treble, so you'd best chuck a few quid at that as well.
Saturday, July 02, 2011
Coral Eclipse
Workforce is a big price for a horse with the best form. And may touch 2s later. That'll do me for today.
£90 at 7/4
£10 treble Workforce, Electrolyser and Circumvent
and I'll also be hoping Kvitova holds her nerve later at 10/1
Be lucky...
£90 at 7/4
£10 treble Workforce, Electrolyser and Circumvent
and I'll also be hoping Kvitova holds her nerve later at 10/1
Be lucky...
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Northumberland Plate
Pricewise reckons Tominator reminds him of Sergeant Cecil. Blimey that's worth a fiver, then!
There look to be stronger horses running though, Harlsetone Times and Deauville Flyer for two. They seem the right price though, and the one who looks a bit too long is Investissement. I'll go for him and save on the other two.
Newmarket 3:20 A mess of a race with some horses opposable at their prices. Which inevitably leaves me with two looking too long this morning. I'll back them both and do the forecast. Inler and Pausanias.
£100 could look like:
Investissement £25 at 9/1
Harlestone Times £13 at 7/1
Deauville Flyer £12 at 8/1
Inler £20 at 12/1
Pausanias £20 at 10/1
and 2.50 combination exacta
and for the treble Investissement/Pausanias and Afsare
Be lucky...
There look to be stronger horses running though, Harlsetone Times and Deauville Flyer for two. They seem the right price though, and the one who looks a bit too long is Investissement. I'll go for him and save on the other two.
Newmarket 3:20 A mess of a race with some horses opposable at their prices. Which inevitably leaves me with two looking too long this morning. I'll back them both and do the forecast. Inler and Pausanias.
£100 could look like:
Investissement £25 at 9/1
Harlestone Times £13 at 7/1
Deauville Flyer £12 at 8/1
Inler £20 at 12/1
Pausanias £20 at 10/1
and 2.50 combination exacta
and for the treble Investissement/Pausanias and Afsare
Be lucky...
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Ascot - Saturday
Was going to have thump at Delegator if he'd stood his ground. As I haven't backed a winner all week that would have been a nice shit and bust finale.
Instead I'll play the Wokingham, and the two at the prices are:
Fastha and Victoire De Lyphar
Keep it simple, plus do the forecast.
and a sneaky ew double Fastha and Hitchens.
Be lucky...
Instead I'll play the Wokingham, and the two at the prices are:
Fastha and Victoire De Lyphar
Keep it simple, plus do the forecast.
and a sneaky ew double Fastha and Hitchens.
Be lucky...
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Royal Ascot - Thursday
Carnage yesterday - glad I'm a fun gambler these days. There'd have been blood on the walls yesterday.
Gold Cup looks wide open to me. Looking for something that could improve for extra trip at a long price. Andre Fabre's only runner this week has to be selected. Prescott hardly comes here for the fun of it either and Motrice should love the extra distance.
Bet365 going 1/3rd place terms if you can get it.
Motrice 10ew 20/1
Brigantin 10ew 20/1
Everyday Dave and Dorcas Lane for the trebles.
Be lucky...
Gold Cup looks wide open to me. Looking for something that could improve for extra trip at a long price. Andre Fabre's only runner this week has to be selected. Prescott hardly comes here for the fun of it either and Motrice should love the extra distance.
Bet365 going 1/3rd place terms if you can get it.
Motrice 10ew 20/1
Brigantin 10ew 20/1
Everyday Dave and Dorcas Lane for the trebles.
Be lucky...
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Royal Ascot - Wednesday
Sweet Sanette traded at 1.26 in-running, not that I bailed out!
Jersey Stakes, Codemaster looks solid, but I have to play Western Aristocrat - Noseda/Murtagh with a horse who's about to give up a very nice handicap mark...
Prince of Wales's - looks a two horse race and I'm surprised at the price disparity between the two being as large as it is. Granted the Aussie horse should be favourite, but you have to play Planteur at 9/2.
Hunt Cup - Plenty of horses look laid-out for this. I'll ignore them all. Mont Angel looks solid on what could be a good day for Murtagh. But the one I like is Kay Gee Bee, up against the fence, could have won on Saturday if really trying, still some improvement there. 28/1 each way. Chapter and Verse at 40s also appeals.
Throw £50 across the lot to suit yourself.
For the "get rich quick" bet - Murtagh trebles/acca
and Western Aristocrat/Planteur/Kay Gee Bee.
Be lucky...
Jersey Stakes, Codemaster looks solid, but I have to play Western Aristocrat - Noseda/Murtagh with a horse who's about to give up a very nice handicap mark...
Prince of Wales's - looks a two horse race and I'm surprised at the price disparity between the two being as large as it is. Granted the Aussie horse should be favourite, but you have to play Planteur at 9/2.
Hunt Cup - Plenty of horses look laid-out for this. I'll ignore them all. Mont Angel looks solid on what could be a good day for Murtagh. But the one I like is Kay Gee Bee, up against the fence, could have won on Saturday if really trying, still some improvement there. 28/1 each way. Chapter and Verse at 40s also appeals.
Throw £50 across the lot to suit yourself.
For the "get rich quick" bet - Murtagh trebles/acca
and Western Aristocrat/Planteur/Kay Gee Bee.
Be lucky...
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Royal Ascot - Tuesday
How much of a recreational punter have I become? Well, I don't even have a copy of the Racing Post this morning! So, instead of the usual form study I'm taking the oblique approach, based on an approximate tissue, and kissing some frogs.
Queen Anne - Flash Dance has no chance in the two-horse race in the first. Crossed him out without a second's thought. Unless he gets the softest of soft leads and the two protagonists spend the race watching each other. Chances of that happening. No idea - but we've seen it a few times in group races. 250/1 seems worth a fiver...can't split the faves on price.
King's Stand Stakes - our horses are pretty useless - not group 1. So, I'd be looking at the foreigners. No handle on their form though. Sweet Sanette and Holiday For Kitten both look likely darts at 16/1 and 25/1+
St James's Palace - Frankel legitimately short. Shorter than he should be though, surely. I like Japanese raiders, 22/1 Grand Prix Boss looks fair each way.
£5 Flash Dance 250/1
£10 Sweet Sanette 16/1
£10 Holiday for Kitten 25/1
£10 ew Grand Prix Boss 22/1
£5ew double Sweet Sanette/Grand Prix Boss
£2.50 ew those two and Roman Soldier in Coventry.
Be lucky...
Queen Anne - Flash Dance has no chance in the two-horse race in the first. Crossed him out without a second's thought. Unless he gets the softest of soft leads and the two protagonists spend the race watching each other. Chances of that happening. No idea - but we've seen it a few times in group races. 250/1 seems worth a fiver...can't split the faves on price.
King's Stand Stakes - our horses are pretty useless - not group 1. So, I'd be looking at the foreigners. No handle on their form though. Sweet Sanette and Holiday For Kitten both look likely darts at 16/1 and 25/1+
St James's Palace - Frankel legitimately short. Shorter than he should be though, surely. I like Japanese raiders, 22/1 Grand Prix Boss looks fair each way.
£5 Flash Dance 250/1
£10 Sweet Sanette 16/1
£10 Holiday for Kitten 25/1
£10 ew Grand Prix Boss 22/1
£5ew double Sweet Sanette/Grand Prix Boss
£2.50 ew those two and Roman Soldier in Coventry.
Be lucky...
Saturday, June 04, 2011
The Derby 2011
Cold-headed, hard-bitten, grizzly old gambling pros can't let prejudice and irrationality get in the way of the business of turning a profit. Luckily Saturday Gamblers have no such constraints and I can safely say I'm opposing the favourite today just because it belongs to the Queen.
Which should make it easy because Recital has rock solid form. And if there's one person I dislike more than royalty it's Kieran Fallon. So, his absence this morning via a ridiculous courtroom decision has already made me a winner on the day. However, if there's one group of people I dislike more than royalty and Kieran Fallon combined it's O'Brien and the Coolmore mafia, something which has cost me a fortune in flat racing over the years, so I'm going to avoid Recital anyway, and discard the rest of their runners also (though ever the hypocrite I do have a modest ante post on Seville from ages ago). Which leaves Pour Moi, but those of us who put their mortgage on Pennekamp winning all those years ago aren't likely to be following (the admittedly brilliant) Fabre this time round either.
People I do like are sadly running no-hopers. Which leaves me with Vadamar and Ocean War. The latter will need a better ride than the truly terrible one Frankie gave the favourite yesterday, and I'm liking Vadamar more the more I look at it. OK so the French haven't won since the very first time I ever went to the Derby aged 15. And OK, so he was beaten by Pour Moi, and his best form is on soft ground. Let's say he had an off-day against Pour Moi (and was odds-on that race); let's say he's bred to like faster ground, and a trip; and let's say the jockey won't ride Epsom as hopelessly as all his countrymen have in my adulthood.
That being so, 20/1 each way at 1/3rd odds for those of you with Bet365 accounts, is worthy of a completely rational, coldly logical, value-added thump...
£40ew Vadamar 20/1
and do a forecast with Ocean War
Get rich quick - Falasteen/St Moritz and Vadamar aiming for £20k or so.
Be lucky....
Which should make it easy because Recital has rock solid form. And if there's one person I dislike more than royalty it's Kieran Fallon. So, his absence this morning via a ridiculous courtroom decision has already made me a winner on the day. However, if there's one group of people I dislike more than royalty and Kieran Fallon combined it's O'Brien and the Coolmore mafia, something which has cost me a fortune in flat racing over the years, so I'm going to avoid Recital anyway, and discard the rest of their runners also (though ever the hypocrite I do have a modest ante post on Seville from ages ago). Which leaves Pour Moi, but those of us who put their mortgage on Pennekamp winning all those years ago aren't likely to be following (the admittedly brilliant) Fabre this time round either.
People I do like are sadly running no-hopers. Which leaves me with Vadamar and Ocean War. The latter will need a better ride than the truly terrible one Frankie gave the favourite yesterday, and I'm liking Vadamar more the more I look at it. OK so the French haven't won since the very first time I ever went to the Derby aged 15. And OK, so he was beaten by Pour Moi, and his best form is on soft ground. Let's say he had an off-day against Pour Moi (and was odds-on that race); let's say he's bred to like faster ground, and a trip; and let's say the jockey won't ride Epsom as hopelessly as all his countrymen have in my adulthood.
That being so, 20/1 each way at 1/3rd odds for those of you with Bet365 accounts, is worthy of a completely rational, coldly logical, value-added thump...
£40ew Vadamar 20/1
and do a forecast with Ocean War
Get rich quick - Falasteen/St Moritz and Vadamar aiming for £20k or so.
Be lucky....
Friday, June 03, 2011
Oaks
I don't suppose I'll be able to give you the 1,2 like last year! Not least because I've barely seen a trial, not even the 1000 Guineas.
Still, that race was obviously a farce, the horses up front dying in a headwind, so the fave has to be opposable at the price. I liked Havant but not sure about the ground, and Misty For Me is longest at Ladbrokes, always a worry with that stable, and probably a nod towards Wonder of Wonders.
I think I'll go for the well-bred unexposed horse with a canny trainer, be quick before the 20/1's all gone.
Siren's Song £25ew at 20/1
Possibly do an each way double with Resurge who loves the course, and for the get rich quick treble why not throw in a big (and unlikely!) upset in the Coronation Cup with the ultra-game Dandino.
Be lucky....
Still, that race was obviously a farce, the horses up front dying in a headwind, so the fave has to be opposable at the price. I liked Havant but not sure about the ground, and Misty For Me is longest at Ladbrokes, always a worry with that stable, and probably a nod towards Wonder of Wonders.
I think I'll go for the well-bred unexposed horse with a canny trainer, be quick before the 20/1's all gone.
Siren's Song £25ew at 20/1
Possibly do an each way double with Resurge who loves the course, and for the get rich quick treble why not throw in a big (and unlikely!) upset in the Coronation Cup with the ultra-game Dandino.
Be lucky....
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Champions League final and Haydock
If betting tonight, and you haven't had your accounts closed, there's two good deals - Bet365 will match your pre-match bet up to £50 with a free in-running bet, and Paddy Power will refund correct score etc bets if Barcelona win in 90 minutes.
No obvious value, typically. However, I've always thought penalties in finals are wrongly-priced, though I don't have the raw data to prove it. Saturday Gamblers don't need proof of course, just a dubious statistic and 3 of the last 8 champions league finals have gone to penalties - that'll do for me.
The sprint at Haydock has a clear favourite, who has legitimate credentials. I prefer to take the wider view that sprinters (with the possible exception of Delegator) aren't group 1 animals at all, and so have very little by way of class edge over each other. So we have to go against the fave here. The Cheka, who never wins, especially when I'm backing, and High Standing (already been thrashed twice by the fave) are the illogical looking choices, but prices dictated. If the fave is a non runner we're in trouble...you may want to keep powder dry for a bit yet, unless like me you're going out for the day.
So £50 on Champions Leageue to go to penalties at 11/2ish
and £50 dutched The Cheka and High Standing at 7/2ish
I'll leave you to make up your own get rich quick treble.
Be lucky...
No obvious value, typically. However, I've always thought penalties in finals are wrongly-priced, though I don't have the raw data to prove it. Saturday Gamblers don't need proof of course, just a dubious statistic and 3 of the last 8 champions league finals have gone to penalties - that'll do for me.
The sprint at Haydock has a clear favourite, who has legitimate credentials. I prefer to take the wider view that sprinters (with the possible exception of Delegator) aren't group 1 animals at all, and so have very little by way of class edge over each other. So we have to go against the fave here. The Cheka, who never wins, especially when I'm backing, and High Standing (already been thrashed twice by the fave) are the illogical looking choices, but prices dictated. If the fave is a non runner we're in trouble...you may want to keep powder dry for a bit yet, unless like me you're going out for the day.
So £50 on Champions Leageue to go to penalties at 11/2ish
and £50 dutched The Cheka and High Standing at 7/2ish
I'll leave you to make up your own get rich quick treble.
Be lucky...
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Saturday, May 14, 2011
FA Cup and Lockinge
Blogger wasn't working for me end of this week - you didn't miss much!
I'm not the only one who thinks Man City are too short to win the cup this afternoon, judging by the market this morning. Plenty of people dabbling on Stoke. To be honest I'd want the draw on my side as well, but certainly don't think City should be odds-on.
Lockinge - Canford Cliffs needs to be fit to beat Dick Turpin, and the prices don't look right on that basis. I like Twice Over's price too, but do think he's a 10f specialist.
Earlier in the day Akmal might get a canny front-running ride from Hills here, and if so 11/2 is huge.
At Newmarket Chiberta King could be tailed off last, but won this race last year and races off a lower mark, 16/1 worth a win only bet.
And how about a few quid of Azerbaijan to win Eurovision at 9/1, and the Racing Post put up Slovenia at 100/1 - seems rude not to.
So something like:
Lay Man City for £50 at under evens.
Dick Turpin £30 at 7/2
Aqmal £20 at 11/2
Chiberta King £20 at 16/1
£10 treble the horses
Azerbaijan £15 at 9/1
Slovenia £5 at 100/1
Be lucky...
I'm not the only one who thinks Man City are too short to win the cup this afternoon, judging by the market this morning. Plenty of people dabbling on Stoke. To be honest I'd want the draw on my side as well, but certainly don't think City should be odds-on.
Lockinge - Canford Cliffs needs to be fit to beat Dick Turpin, and the prices don't look right on that basis. I like Twice Over's price too, but do think he's a 10f specialist.
Earlier in the day Akmal might get a canny front-running ride from Hills here, and if so 11/2 is huge.
At Newmarket Chiberta King could be tailed off last, but won this race last year and races off a lower mark, 16/1 worth a win only bet.
And how about a few quid of Azerbaijan to win Eurovision at 9/1, and the Racing Post put up Slovenia at 100/1 - seems rude not to.
So something like:
Lay Man City for £50 at under evens.
Dick Turpin £30 at 7/2
Aqmal £20 at 11/2
Chiberta King £20 at 16/1
£10 treble the horses
Azerbaijan £15 at 9/1
Slovenia £5 at 100/1
Be lucky...
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
York - Musidora Tuesday
I'm around for York, so will play half stakes.
The 1:30 handicap is all about Taqleed and the two unexposed horses, and the prices reflect that. I can't find an edge I'm happy with at that end of the market, so I'll take speculation to its limits and go for a Fahey horse that probably isn't even trying today judging by the jockey booking. Still , it is 50/1 - Ingleby Spirit.
And having got a taste for 50/1 shots I'll wonder to myself what Peter Chapple-Hyam's apparent no-hoper's doing in a weak looking Musidora, and there goes a few more quid on Whey Sauce.
The sprint has a proper group horse in it - Godolphin may have ruined him, but he looks the one to land the life-changing treble - Delegator.
£5ew Ingleby Spirit 50/1
£5ew Whey Sauce 50/1
£5ew double
£2.50ew treble with Delegator for the £50,000
and if need be £10 Delegator.
Be lucky...(you'll need to be!)
The 1:30 handicap is all about Taqleed and the two unexposed horses, and the prices reflect that. I can't find an edge I'm happy with at that end of the market, so I'll take speculation to its limits and go for a Fahey horse that probably isn't even trying today judging by the jockey booking. Still , it is 50/1 - Ingleby Spirit.
And having got a taste for 50/1 shots I'll wonder to myself what Peter Chapple-Hyam's apparent no-hoper's doing in a weak looking Musidora, and there goes a few more quid on Whey Sauce.
The sprint has a proper group horse in it - Godolphin may have ruined him, but he looks the one to land the life-changing treble - Delegator.
£5ew Ingleby Spirit 50/1
£5ew Whey Sauce 50/1
£5ew double
£2.50ew treble with Delegator for the £50,000
and if need be £10 Delegator.
Be lucky...(you'll need to be!)
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Victoria Cup and Lingfield Derby Trial
I was away last week and so missed the dodgems at Chester, so am no doubt richer now than I would have been!
Victoria Cup: God knows what the ground will end up like, so caution multiplied on a track where I'm already suspicious about the straight course. Of course take that attitude to flat racing and a pro just wouldn't bet at all these days - but us Saturday gamblers want the action, and that leads me to two darts. Excellent Guest looks to have solid credentials and I'd have him vying for favouritism with the front two to be honest. Shamandar gets a tentative nod also, Haggas running him in this after such along break, suggesting he's got high hopes.
The Lingfield Derby Trial has been a good race for me in the past and the complete outsider has to be of interest on price terms, even though I know nothing about him, but as the only Derby entrant and given a positive mention from Gerald Delamere this morning, I'm happy to look a fool at 11/1ish and make him the bet of the day.
I'm not sure the usual £100 weekly bet is sensible on such a wet day, but something like:
Marhaba Malyoon £40 at 11/1
Excellent Guest £25 at 16/1
Shamandar £10 at 25/1
£2.50 comb exacta the above two
Drill Sergeant £10 Swinton Hurdle 25/1 (for the hell of it)
£10 treble Marhaba/Excellent Guest/Drill Sergeant returns £50000ish...
Be lucky...
Victoria Cup: God knows what the ground will end up like, so caution multiplied on a track where I'm already suspicious about the straight course. Of course take that attitude to flat racing and a pro just wouldn't bet at all these days - but us Saturday gamblers want the action, and that leads me to two darts. Excellent Guest looks to have solid credentials and I'd have him vying for favouritism with the front two to be honest. Shamandar gets a tentative nod also, Haggas running him in this after such along break, suggesting he's got high hopes.
The Lingfield Derby Trial has been a good race for me in the past and the complete outsider has to be of interest on price terms, even though I know nothing about him, but as the only Derby entrant and given a positive mention from Gerald Delamere this morning, I'm happy to look a fool at 11/1ish and make him the bet of the day.
I'm not sure the usual £100 weekly bet is sensible on such a wet day, but something like:
Marhaba Malyoon £40 at 11/1
Excellent Guest £25 at 16/1
Shamandar £10 at 25/1
£2.50 comb exacta the above two
Drill Sergeant £10 Swinton Hurdle 25/1 (for the hell of it)
£10 treble Marhaba/Excellent Guest/Drill Sergeant returns £50000ish...
Be lucky...
Sunday, May 01, 2011
1000 Guineas
I don't suppose we'll see a performance like Frankel's yesterday, but perhaps we'll get closer to backing a winner!
My problem this morning is that on my tissue Misty For Me comes out as value. The problem is I never get O'Brien's horses right and the clue is usually in the market - when their mob is backing their horses I don't see them as value and they win, and when they don't they drift to big looking prices and they lose. You've been warned.
Of the rest, Moonlight Cloud looks fairly priced and may drift to a big looking price if locals avoid her, but I won't be around to take advantage. Make a Dance is the ridiculous one I like to find at a sexy price, but the price isn't at all what I'd hoped.
All in all, a bit confusing. Still, having had a good day yesterday, I'll play again, something like:
Misty For Me £25 at 11/1
Make a Dance £20 at 16/1
£2.50rev fc
Be lucky...
My problem this morning is that on my tissue Misty For Me comes out as value. The problem is I never get O'Brien's horses right and the clue is usually in the market - when their mob is backing their horses I don't see them as value and they win, and when they don't they drift to big looking prices and they lose. You've been warned.
Of the rest, Moonlight Cloud looks fairly priced and may drift to a big looking price if locals avoid her, but I won't be around to take advantage. Make a Dance is the ridiculous one I like to find at a sexy price, but the price isn't at all what I'd hoped.
All in all, a bit confusing. Still, having had a good day yesterday, I'll play again, something like:
Misty For Me £25 at 11/1
Make a Dance £20 at 16/1
£2.50rev fc
Be lucky...
Saturday, April 30, 2011
2000 Guineas
There's no pundits looking to get after Frankel this morning (Nick Mordin aside) and it's easy to see why. Still, at that price in a field of relatively unexposed 3 year olds no self-respecting Saturday Gambler can sit back and do nothing. Sure, we're going to look stupid most the time, but it's a mighty sweet slice of pie when the sure thing does fail.
The problem is what to oppose him with. I took Casamento each way at 16s midweek - the place element looked big. 12/1 is looking closer to his price, so I'll pass over him this morning. Which leaves Fury as the horse likeliest to raise his game. He's been surprisingly tight in the market this week. You can get money back for second at boylesports at 16/1, or take the 20/1 win only betfair.
Obviously you have to do the forecast to a few quid.
For the 'get rich quick' trebles, build some perms around those two, plus Sandor in the 2:00, Johnny Mudball and Tangerine Trees in the Palace House, and how about another dent in Mourinho's home record with Real Zaragoza at 10/1+. Chuck in the Scoop 6 and join me at the pay window later!
Be lucky...
The problem is what to oppose him with. I took Casamento each way at 16s midweek - the place element looked big. 12/1 is looking closer to his price, so I'll pass over him this morning. Which leaves Fury as the horse likeliest to raise his game. He's been surprisingly tight in the market this week. You can get money back for second at boylesports at 16/1, or take the 20/1 win only betfair.
Obviously you have to do the forecast to a few quid.
For the 'get rich quick' trebles, build some perms around those two, plus Sandor in the 2:00, Johnny Mudball and Tangerine Trees in the Palace House, and how about another dent in Mourinho's home record with Real Zaragoza at 10/1+. Chuck in the Scoop 6 and join me at the pay window later!
Be lucky...
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Whitbread
No time this morning. I was hoping est End Rocker or Iconoclast would line up. Instead I've had a tickle on two rank outsiders who need to find some form from somewhere but are priced fairly to do so.
Major Malarkey £10ew 33/1 (first 5)
Fire and Rain £10 ew 33/1 (first 5)
do a forecast, and make up some treble with both!
Be lucky...
Major Malarkey £10ew 33/1 (first 5)
Fire and Rain £10 ew 33/1 (first 5)
do a forecast, and make up some treble with both!
Be lucky...
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Scottish National
Which has been a sometime lucky race for me over the years. I'm not really connected to it this year I have to say, but I did make a note about Ouzbeck months ago "leave out of calculations until back for go at a good ground Scottish National". Emma Lavelle is one of my favourite "go-to" trainers in handicaps and I'll hope the sun shines enough at 16/1, where I had him closer to 10s....
Ouzbeck £25ew at 16/1
Ouzbeck £25ew at 16/1
Saturday, April 09, 2011
Grand National
Nothing to add to the post below.
Silver By Nature - you have to be worried about the ground now, so my number one pick is West End Rocker each way at 33/1+, and win only at 50/1ish. Fill your boots!
Of the Irish, I'd be keenest on Midnight Club and Backstage, but the prices have probably long gone - and Golden Kite could make you dream out in front for a while at 100/1ish.
Be lucky...
Silver By Nature - you have to be worried about the ground now, so my number one pick is West End Rocker each way at 33/1+, and win only at 50/1ish. Fill your boots!
Of the Irish, I'd be keenest on Midnight Club and Backstage, but the prices have probably long gone - and Golden Kite could make you dream out in front for a while at 100/1ish.
Be lucky...
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
US Masters and Grand National
Saturday Gamblers have to have a go at both of these events don't they!
Grand National.
There's a great write-up on this on Theracingforum.
by "gingertipster" halfway down page 24.
My money will be divided between two horses for now and I may go again Saturday:
Silver by Nature. You have to worry about the ground now, but I've thought of him for this for 2 years and they've got him in very well handicapped.
West End Rocker. If you forgive his last run, and it's easy to do so, he looks a rock solid prospect. That last run just gives us a nice price to play with.
One of the problems with being part-time these days is I haven't got a handle on the Irish form this year - which proved expensive at Cheltenham! - I'll focus on that ahead of Saturday.
US Masters:
I've decided to be a fan this year. Again, when gambling full-time I found I was falling out of love with a lot of sporting events. Grinding can be a right pain. So, there's no deep-seated value-added analysis here, just fandom. That said, how on earth is McDowell 50/1?
So a mid-week £100ish might look like:
Silver By Nature £20 at 14/1
West End Rocker £10ew at 40/1
Kaymer £10 at 22/1
Casey £10 at 33/1
McDowell £10 at 50/1
Poulter £10 at 50/1
McIlroy £10 at 30/1
West End Rocker/McDowell £10 double returns £15000ish
West End Rocker/McDowell and Fine parchment in the Topham £5 returns £80000ish. That'll do.
Be Lucky...
Grand National.
There's a great write-up on this on Theracingforum.
by "gingertipster" halfway down page 24.
My money will be divided between two horses for now and I may go again Saturday:
Silver by Nature. You have to worry about the ground now, but I've thought of him for this for 2 years and they've got him in very well handicapped.
West End Rocker. If you forgive his last run, and it's easy to do so, he looks a rock solid prospect. That last run just gives us a nice price to play with.
One of the problems with being part-time these days is I haven't got a handle on the Irish form this year - which proved expensive at Cheltenham! - I'll focus on that ahead of Saturday.
US Masters:
I've decided to be a fan this year. Again, when gambling full-time I found I was falling out of love with a lot of sporting events. Grinding can be a right pain. So, there's no deep-seated value-added analysis here, just fandom. That said, how on earth is McDowell 50/1?
So a mid-week £100ish might look like:
Silver By Nature £20 at 14/1
West End Rocker £10ew at 40/1
Kaymer £10 at 22/1
Casey £10 at 33/1
McDowell £10 at 50/1
Poulter £10 at 50/1
McIlroy £10 at 30/1
West End Rocker/McDowell £10 double returns £15000ish
West End Rocker/McDowell and Fine parchment in the Topham £5 returns £80000ish. That'll do.
Be Lucky...
Saturday, April 02, 2011
The Lincoln
No self-respecting professional without inside information would dream of a bet in the Lincoln. Luckily, us Saturday Gamblers have no such constraints!
Actually, the Spring Mile has a better betting shape to it, with two at the front of the market at silly looking prices. I'm happy to take three against them at slightly inflated odds - Dance and Dance, Just one for the Road, and Oriental Set.
The Lincoln does look to have a legitimate favourite, fairly priced, so I'm more circumspect here. But let's throw a few quid on Gunner Lindley at 11/1ish. For those looking for bigger prices Doctor Crane if he's fit and doesn't run too free, and how about 60/1+ on Harrison George to cause a mother of an upset.
Football and I can see West Ham and Stoke getting something from their games, and wouldn't be surprised to see Woy Hodgson get a little bit of revenge either. Not sure how to play any of them, but how about a 70/1 treble for the fun of it.
So, something like:
£20 Dance and Dance at 16/1
£10 Just for the Road at 25/1
£10 Oriental Set at 25/1
6 x £1 combination exactas and 50p combination trifecta
£10 double Dance and Dance and Gunner Lindley
If that fails £20 Gunner Lindley 11/1
£10 treble West Ham/Stoke/West Brom
£10 treble Dance and Dance/Gunner Lindley/Silver by Nature (Grand National) returns £25000
Be lucky...
Actually, the Spring Mile has a better betting shape to it, with two at the front of the market at silly looking prices. I'm happy to take three against them at slightly inflated odds - Dance and Dance, Just one for the Road, and Oriental Set.
The Lincoln does look to have a legitimate favourite, fairly priced, so I'm more circumspect here. But let's throw a few quid on Gunner Lindley at 11/1ish. For those looking for bigger prices Doctor Crane if he's fit and doesn't run too free, and how about 60/1+ on Harrison George to cause a mother of an upset.
Football and I can see West Ham and Stoke getting something from their games, and wouldn't be surprised to see Woy Hodgson get a little bit of revenge either. Not sure how to play any of them, but how about a 70/1 treble for the fun of it.
So, something like:
£20 Dance and Dance at 16/1
£10 Just for the Road at 25/1
£10 Oriental Set at 25/1
6 x £1 combination exactas and 50p combination trifecta
£10 double Dance and Dance and Gunner Lindley
If that fails £20 Gunner Lindley 11/1
£10 treble West Ham/Stoke/West Brom
£10 treble Dance and Dance/Gunner Lindley/Silver by Nature (Grand National) returns £25000
Be lucky...
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Saturday 26th March
The racing is not at all my cup of tea today, with just the one race at Newbury of interest. And it's a poor one. Burren Legend won it last year and has good course form. I'm not sure this race will fall in his lap, and given he's been pulled up three times already this season, he's not each way material. But I'll play at the price, and throw a tenner at veteran Briery Fox - who I see Corals have ducked.
Another Saturday, and another chance to oppose an England team. You'll never go broke laying England teams playing away at under 1/2, regardless of all the experts in the world telling you this is a cakewalk against a terrible Welsh side. They seem to be overlooking the fact England are pretty terrible also. As we are already on Montenegro to win the group this is a doubling of our eggs in that basket to be honest, and an early England goal, followed by turning over to see Burren Legend pulled up, is a more likely scenario, but that's Saturday gambling.
So, something like:
£30 Burren Legend at 14/1+
£10 Briery Fox at 14/1+
back Wales and lay England so that your outcomes are something like:
Wales +£180
England -£50
Draw +90
£10 treble Semi-Colon/Burren Legend/Wales returns c£10000
Be lucky...
Another Saturday, and another chance to oppose an England team. You'll never go broke laying England teams playing away at under 1/2, regardless of all the experts in the world telling you this is a cakewalk against a terrible Welsh side. They seem to be overlooking the fact England are pretty terrible also. As we are already on Montenegro to win the group this is a doubling of our eggs in that basket to be honest, and an early England goal, followed by turning over to see Burren Legend pulled up, is a more likely scenario, but that's Saturday gambling.
So, something like:
£30 Burren Legend at 14/1+
£10 Briery Fox at 14/1+
back Wales and lay England so that your outcomes are something like:
Wales +£180
England -£50
Draw +90
£10 treble Semi-Colon/Burren Legend/Wales returns c£10000
Be lucky...
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Midlands National
Well, that was a tough week. The bad news is that I lost the entire bank I'd allocated to the festival. The good news is that still leaves me with a good profit for the last couple of months. That's a big compliment to this type of staking, which you won't find in any gambling textbook. It certainly worked out better than any level staking system, and if I'd been using my old "part Kelly" approach I'd have been completely banjaxed. So, that's one advantage to good old part-time Saturday Gambling, and it could easily be incorporated into a full-time gambler's approach. Food for thought for the future.
In the meantime, let's get back on the horse at Uttoxeter today. Not my favourite race but Companero reappears at a a big price again. Now, obviously he all but died on his feet three weeks ago, loaning us our Cheltenham funds, so why would we want to go to the funeral today, especially on firmer ground. Well, because he's 25/1+ again. I'm not that interested in each way this time, given he is likely to be pulled up, and will supplement the bet with a couple of other bets now the favourite has been Pricewised down to 4/1. Tricky Trickster and Nicto De Beauchene look credible darts at a price.
So, something like
£25 win Companero 25/1+ (got 30s last night)
£15 win Tricky Trickster 14/1
£10 win Nicto de Beauchene 20/1
Ireland look backable at 7/4 to beat England in the rugby - they'll relish this one last battle. Usual England pricing reasons. May even get 2s closer to kick-off!
Be lucky...
In the meantime, let's get back on the horse at Uttoxeter today. Not my favourite race but Companero reappears at a a big price again. Now, obviously he all but died on his feet three weeks ago, loaning us our Cheltenham funds, so why would we want to go to the funeral today, especially on firmer ground. Well, because he's 25/1+ again. I'm not that interested in each way this time, given he is likely to be pulled up, and will supplement the bet with a couple of other bets now the favourite has been Pricewised down to 4/1. Tricky Trickster and Nicto De Beauchene look credible darts at a price.
So, something like
£25 win Companero 25/1+ (got 30s last night)
£15 win Tricky Trickster 14/1
£10 win Nicto de Beauchene 20/1
Ireland look backable at 7/4 to beat England in the rugby - they'll relish this one last battle. Usual England pricing reasons. May even get 2s closer to kick-off!
Be lucky...
Friday, March 18, 2011
Cheltenham - Friday
Been a bad one so far. The three bets of the day have: fallen when in last, pulled up when in last, and run like a drunkard who's just missed the last bus home.
I'm lucky today in that a lot of my bets are paid for by the doubles I have going on from Al Ferof - who must have won in a previous year so long ago it seems!
Triumph: I have a free double on Zarkander. Prefer Unaccompanied this morning so will go in again.
County: Should probably keep Alarazi onside after his bloodless win last weekend, but am looking further afield. Particularly like Soldatino for this - he loves the hill, and have a long-standing habit of backing James Fanshawe runners here so Spring Jim at 50/1 to cheer me up.
Bartlett: Have a free bet on Court in Motion, and will stick with that.
Gold Cup: Judgement day for Weird Al. And it would have to be weird to be honest. Still, if you're all on at 40/1 each way I hope we get a better run for our money this time. I have a free bet on Midnight Chase, though it's hard to think he's good enough, and at the prices this morning I'd have to say Imperial Commander looks a touch of value. His price could be down to knowledge that he's not right (much like how Hills and Lads went 3/1 early on Time for Rupert). It's possible though he's just not a public horse. Not many people backed him last year - just us! - and you'd imagine more tenners and scores going on Denman and Kauto Star for old time's sake.
Grand Annual: I have a free bet on Pigeon Island at 33/1 to repeat last year's little bit of joy, and I also like Oh Crick to roll back the years.
My new bets:
£25 win Unaccompanied
£15 ew Soldatino
£10 ew Spring Jim
Some doubles on the ones mentioned, and if need be singles on Imperial Commander and Oh Crick.
Be lucky...
I'm lucky today in that a lot of my bets are paid for by the doubles I have going on from Al Ferof - who must have won in a previous year so long ago it seems!
Triumph: I have a free double on Zarkander. Prefer Unaccompanied this morning so will go in again.
County: Should probably keep Alarazi onside after his bloodless win last weekend, but am looking further afield. Particularly like Soldatino for this - he loves the hill, and have a long-standing habit of backing James Fanshawe runners here so Spring Jim at 50/1 to cheer me up.
Bartlett: Have a free bet on Court in Motion, and will stick with that.
Gold Cup: Judgement day for Weird Al. And it would have to be weird to be honest. Still, if you're all on at 40/1 each way I hope we get a better run for our money this time. I have a free bet on Midnight Chase, though it's hard to think he's good enough, and at the prices this morning I'd have to say Imperial Commander looks a touch of value. His price could be down to knowledge that he's not right (much like how Hills and Lads went 3/1 early on Time for Rupert). It's possible though he's just not a public horse. Not many people backed him last year - just us! - and you'd imagine more tenners and scores going on Denman and Kauto Star for old time's sake.
Grand Annual: I have a free bet on Pigeon Island at 33/1 to repeat last year's little bit of joy, and I also like Oh Crick to roll back the years.
My new bets:
£25 win Unaccompanied
£15 ew Soldatino
£10 ew Spring Jim
Some doubles on the ones mentioned, and if need be singles on Imperial Commander and Oh Crick.
Be lucky...
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Cheltenham - Thursday
Tough day yesterday. Beshabar, Rock On Ruby and Kumbeshwar were all kickings. When I was a pro obviously I watched all the key Irish races, but that study has been sadly lacking this year, and it's proving expensive. At least the staking isn't hurting!
Jewson: Bet of the day for me - Robinson Collonges was beating Wishfull Thinking giving weight, when he overjumped at Wincanton. Jumping is a worry but with Ruby to hand I think he should be much closer in price to the fave this morning.
Pertemps: Hope they keep hold of him a bit more than last year but the ground is perfect for Barwell Bridge to run another big race.
Ryanair: Impossible - doubts about the four main challengers, and indeed the rest of the field. I have a free bet on Kalahari King, so that'll do me for now, not that I like it much.
World Hurdle: Big Buck's at Evens is a mighty fine price for the big hitters. I can afford to leave it be.
Plate: The two who stand out for me are both pretty short - Quartz de Thai and Beautiful Sound - watching brief for now.
Fulke Walwyn: Mostly Bob was fancied for the RP chase before the rains came, and fell nice and early, so this could be much more likely. Also like Alderley Rover.
Something like;
£50 Robinson Collonges 7/1
£15ew Barwell Bridge 25/1
£15ew Mostly Bob 16/1
£10ew Alderley Rover 20/1
and make up some life-changing doubles/trebles to suit yourself.
Be lucky...
Jewson: Bet of the day for me - Robinson Collonges was beating Wishfull Thinking giving weight, when he overjumped at Wincanton. Jumping is a worry but with Ruby to hand I think he should be much closer in price to the fave this morning.
Pertemps: Hope they keep hold of him a bit more than last year but the ground is perfect for Barwell Bridge to run another big race.
Ryanair: Impossible - doubts about the four main challengers, and indeed the rest of the field. I have a free bet on Kalahari King, so that'll do me for now, not that I like it much.
World Hurdle: Big Buck's at Evens is a mighty fine price for the big hitters. I can afford to leave it be.
Plate: The two who stand out for me are both pretty short - Quartz de Thai and Beautiful Sound - watching brief for now.
Fulke Walwyn: Mostly Bob was fancied for the RP chase before the rains came, and fell nice and early, so this could be much more likely. Also like Alderley Rover.
Something like;
£50 Robinson Collonges 7/1
£15ew Barwell Bridge 25/1
£15ew Mostly Bob 16/1
£10ew Alderley Rover 20/1
and make up some life-changing doubles/trebles to suit yourself.
Be lucky...
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Cheltenham - Wednesday
Onwards.
I'm leaning towards horses with proven good/firm form after yesterday...
NH Chase - bunch of plodders with amateur pilots is usually a recipe for pandemonium. My darts land on Beshaber and Major Malarkey.
Neptune - Guessing the Irish are decent, but don't know which one, which leaves me with Tornado Bob at a big price.
RSA - my favourite race. Time For Rupert looks a shade of value. The Al Ferof win yesterday kicked off a load of free £30 doubles, one of which is the plodder The Giant Bolster at 25/1, which will do for me. I'll also back Wayward Prince.
Queen Mum - God help me with this one, but I'm going with Woolcombe Folly, who anyone with an ounce of sense can see is hopelessly overrated, but I'll go with my eyes, and in the hope Master Minded doesn't let himself down on the ground and Big Zeb doesn't jump as well as last year.
I'll play them all in some way, but hope the doubles can kick us into life:
10 x £5 doubles and a £5 life-changing acca
Beshaber 8/1
Tornado Bob 11/1
Time For Rupert 5/2
Woolcombe Folly 8/1
For Non Stop 7/1
Bet of the day - The Giant Bolster 20/1 each way.
Be lucky...
I'm leaning towards horses with proven good/firm form after yesterday...
NH Chase - bunch of plodders with amateur pilots is usually a recipe for pandemonium. My darts land on Beshaber and Major Malarkey.
Neptune - Guessing the Irish are decent, but don't know which one, which leaves me with Tornado Bob at a big price.
RSA - my favourite race. Time For Rupert looks a shade of value. The Al Ferof win yesterday kicked off a load of free £30 doubles, one of which is the plodder The Giant Bolster at 25/1, which will do for me. I'll also back Wayward Prince.
Queen Mum - God help me with this one, but I'm going with Woolcombe Folly, who anyone with an ounce of sense can see is hopelessly overrated, but I'll go with my eyes, and in the hope Master Minded doesn't let himself down on the ground and Big Zeb doesn't jump as well as last year.
I'll play them all in some way, but hope the doubles can kick us into life:
10 x £5 doubles and a £5 life-changing acca
Beshaber 8/1
Tornado Bob 11/1
Time For Rupert 5/2
Woolcombe Folly 8/1
For Non Stop 7/1
Bet of the day - The Giant Bolster 20/1 each way.
Be lucky...
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Cheltenham - Tuesday
A good thing about being a smaller staking gambler is that the bookies let you play and so we can take advantage of the great offers they've lined up.
Supreme - Cue Card is fairly priced. He'd certainly be shorter if trained by one of the bigger stables. The Paddy Power concession (money back if he wins) looks the way to go, and I've already done Al Ferof, Gibb River and Marsh Warbler against him.
Arkle - Boylesports's concession on the Channel 4 races of money back if 2nd is also a good one - and in fairly uncompetitive races as this appears, has appeal. I prefer Medermit to Finian's Rainbow, but he seems to struggle up the hill in the big races. Leaving Ghizao as the bet of the day.
Champion - Wide open. I do like Menorah a lot, but not at the price. I'm more drawn to Mille Chief (if acts on course) and Khyber Kim (if on a going day) at the prices.
Maljimar is an obvious bet in the X Country, so obvious everyone's tipped it this morning - probably go off favourite.
The rest is just for playing, can see Chief Dan George putting up a good defence of his title each way.
Let's say a bank of £200 for the day - putting our hard-earned profits at risk! Something like:
Ghizao £50 at 4/1 (money back if 2nd)
Gibb River 20/1
Ghizao 4/1
Chief Dan George 25/1
Mille Chief 14/1
Maljimar 6/1
10 x £3 doubles
Then Ghizao/Maljimar bankers with
Gibb River/Marsh Warbler/Chief Dan George/Mille Chief/Khyber Kim 5 x £4 trebles
and 4 x 50p get rich accas.
The other hundred to be spread around the later races, if the doubles aren't up and running.
Be lucky...
Supreme - Cue Card is fairly priced. He'd certainly be shorter if trained by one of the bigger stables. The Paddy Power concession (money back if he wins) looks the way to go, and I've already done Al Ferof, Gibb River and Marsh Warbler against him.
Arkle - Boylesports's concession on the Channel 4 races of money back if 2nd is also a good one - and in fairly uncompetitive races as this appears, has appeal. I prefer Medermit to Finian's Rainbow, but he seems to struggle up the hill in the big races. Leaving Ghizao as the bet of the day.
Champion - Wide open. I do like Menorah a lot, but not at the price. I'm more drawn to Mille Chief (if acts on course) and Khyber Kim (if on a going day) at the prices.
Maljimar is an obvious bet in the X Country, so obvious everyone's tipped it this morning - probably go off favourite.
The rest is just for playing, can see Chief Dan George putting up a good defence of his title each way.
Let's say a bank of £200 for the day - putting our hard-earned profits at risk! Something like:
Ghizao £50 at 4/1 (money back if 2nd)
Gibb River 20/1
Ghizao 4/1
Chief Dan George 25/1
Mille Chief 14/1
Maljimar 6/1
10 x £3 doubles
Then Ghizao/Maljimar bankers with
Gibb River/Marsh Warbler/Chief Dan George/Mille Chief/Khyber Kim 5 x £4 trebles
and 4 x 50p get rich accas.
The other hundred to be spread around the later races, if the doubles aren't up and running.
Be lucky...
Monday, March 14, 2011
Cheltenham - Monday
I'll post all week. See if we can continue our amazing run of the last few weeks. At least I can afford a terrible week!
Firstly, Arsenal. I can't help thinking they are a big price at 2/1 to win the league. They have an easier run-in, and Man Utd are heavily involved on three fronts still (and a Man City semi-final isn't something they'll be allowed to soft-pedal). Of course you have to forgive Arsenal all their obvious failings, but 2/1+ seems an overreaction to a the horrible 8 days they've just had.
For Cheltenham, I've done a few vouchers of doubles trying to make myself rich with little effort. As usual I will no doubt have to offer these up in sacrifice to the gods of Cleeve Hill once the Champion hurdle is done and dusted on Tuesday.
I'll add a couple here.
Firstly, an each way double of The Giant Bolster and Weird Al.
Secondly, I think you should do an "Oh Bugger" voucher, of horses you're probably not going to focus on this year, but you have in the past, just in case they come back to haunt you. One horse each day for me - Maljimar, Somersby, Kalahari King and Imperial Commander.
So, something like.
Arsenal £50 Premiership at 2/1
£10 ew The Giant Bolster 16/1 and Weird Al 25/1
The four horses you're going to be most pissed off if they win, unbacked...
6 x £4 doubles and £6 fourfold
Be lucky...
Firstly, Arsenal. I can't help thinking they are a big price at 2/1 to win the league. They have an easier run-in, and Man Utd are heavily involved on three fronts still (and a Man City semi-final isn't something they'll be allowed to soft-pedal). Of course you have to forgive Arsenal all their obvious failings, but 2/1+ seems an overreaction to a the horrible 8 days they've just had.
For Cheltenham, I've done a few vouchers of doubles trying to make myself rich with little effort. As usual I will no doubt have to offer these up in sacrifice to the gods of Cleeve Hill once the Champion hurdle is done and dusted on Tuesday.
I'll add a couple here.
Firstly, an each way double of The Giant Bolster and Weird Al.
Secondly, I think you should do an "Oh Bugger" voucher, of horses you're probably not going to focus on this year, but you have in the past, just in case they come back to haunt you. One horse each day for me - Maljimar, Somersby, Kalahari King and Imperial Commander.
So, something like.
Arsenal £50 Premiership at 2/1
£10 ew The Giant Bolster 16/1 and Weird Al 25/1
The four horses you're going to be most pissed off if they win, unbacked...
6 x £4 doubles and £6 fourfold
Be lucky...
Friday, March 11, 2011
Imperial Cup Sandown
Off to Crufts tomorrow. The racing is well missable with all of next week to look forward to, and no reason to go wasting money ahead of the big event.
The Imperial Cup is not a race I've ever had much success in, but given the profits of the last few weeks I felt obliged to go for another double-figure each way screamer, and my dart landed on Alarazi. The other credible challengers seemed priced on their trainers' records in this race as much as form, and 14/1 seemed a touch of value. That seems to have collapsed to 10/1 tonight - maybe Pricewise is afoot - and I haven't actually priced the race up so I can't say if 10/1 represents value. Up to you.
No get rich trebles today, but I'll be posting every day next week, so plenty of time for that. In the meantime, if you're quick, snap up the remaining 40/1 about Weird Al winning the Gold Cup. Regulars will know my feelings about this horse, and how disappointed I was after the Hennessey, but I still think he's up there with Long Run, Diamond Harry and Burton Port, and if it's time for the old greats to bow out, well it's worth a dream at that price.
So something like:
£25 ew Alarazi at 14/1 for me, below 10/1 I'd go win only.
£25 ew Weird Al, Gold Cup, 40/1 (33/1 ok).
Be lucky.
The Imperial Cup is not a race I've ever had much success in, but given the profits of the last few weeks I felt obliged to go for another double-figure each way screamer, and my dart landed on Alarazi. The other credible challengers seemed priced on their trainers' records in this race as much as form, and 14/1 seemed a touch of value. That seems to have collapsed to 10/1 tonight - maybe Pricewise is afoot - and I haven't actually priced the race up so I can't say if 10/1 represents value. Up to you.
No get rich trebles today, but I'll be posting every day next week, so plenty of time for that. In the meantime, if you're quick, snap up the remaining 40/1 about Weird Al winning the Gold Cup. Regulars will know my feelings about this horse, and how disappointed I was after the Hennessey, but I still think he's up there with Long Run, Diamond Harry and Burton Port, and if it's time for the old greats to bow out, well it's worth a dream at that price.
So something like:
£25 ew Alarazi at 14/1 for me, below 10/1 I'd go win only.
£25 ew Weird Al, Gold Cup, 40/1 (33/1 ok).
Be lucky.
Saturday, March 05, 2011
Saturday 5th March
One of those dull racing days before the real action unwinds. I'm not keen to fritter away all the profits I've built up over last few weeks, so will tread softly this week.
Newbury Greatwood Chase
Big Fella Thanks would be more interesting if I was able to predict whether Murphy is trying with him today. Which leaves me with Fine Parchment who we've been following for a while, and who remains feasibly handicapped. 14/1 and first four places (fingers crossed) looks ok, so let's make that the bet of the day.
The veterans chase is full of the usual dodge-pots. By the time I was finished crossing out I wasn't left with much, leaving Far More Serious as a tentative poke.
At Doncaster, Meanus Dandy comes out best on prices in a tricky race, though I'm not at all convinced he properly stays this trip. Let's hope he proves me wrong.
So, something like:
Fine Parchment £20ew at 14/1 (12s ok)
Far More Serious £10 win at 15/2
Meanus Dandy (if treble dead)£10 at 8/1
and the three in a £15 treble returning c£15000 - about time I had another 1000/1 treble!
Be lucky.
Newbury Greatwood Chase
Big Fella Thanks would be more interesting if I was able to predict whether Murphy is trying with him today. Which leaves me with Fine Parchment who we've been following for a while, and who remains feasibly handicapped. 14/1 and first four places (fingers crossed) looks ok, so let's make that the bet of the day.
The veterans chase is full of the usual dodge-pots. By the time I was finished crossing out I wasn't left with much, leaving Far More Serious as a tentative poke.
At Doncaster, Meanus Dandy comes out best on prices in a tricky race, though I'm not at all convinced he properly stays this trip. Let's hope he proves me wrong.
So, something like:
Fine Parchment £20ew at 14/1 (12s ok)
Far More Serious £10 win at 15/2
Meanus Dandy (if treble dead)£10 at 8/1
and the three in a £15 treble returning c£15000 - about time I had another 1000/1 treble!
Be lucky.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Saturday 26th Feb
Let's keep it simple today.
These two selections aren't remotely my usual sort of horses - they're both inconsistent and not in form - and so I'm also not sure why I'm going each way. The whole day could consist of watching two has-been horses being pulled up early - you've been warned. Still, one in the frame and we've saved our money.
Racing Post Chase
Not sure how much rain has fallen but I'm expecting softer ground than predicted and it may well have scuppered some of the more progressive horses, particularly Hobbs's pair. I expect Nacarat to run his usual game race and not be far away, but Razor Royale looks the one at the prices. He hasn't run too badly this year, and looks to have been targeting a repeat win here. I got 16/1 in the week, but 12s or better remains value on my tissue.
Eider Chase
Not my sort of race - slow, slow horses plodding home through the mud, with whichever horse deciding it's "travelling day" hanging on to win. Still, I kept looking at Companero. In terrible form, but nicely weighted if the blinkers wake him up. Big if, and he's weak this morning but at 20s+ to win and 6s to place worth a throw of the dice.
So, something like:
Razor Royale £25ew at 14/1
Companero £15 win at 20s+ and £15 place at 6/1
£10 ew double
and if you fancy £25000 how about a cheeky tenner fourfold
Razor Royale, Companero, West Ham and Sheffield Wednesday....!
Be lucky.
These two selections aren't remotely my usual sort of horses - they're both inconsistent and not in form - and so I'm also not sure why I'm going each way. The whole day could consist of watching two has-been horses being pulled up early - you've been warned. Still, one in the frame and we've saved our money.
Racing Post Chase
Not sure how much rain has fallen but I'm expecting softer ground than predicted and it may well have scuppered some of the more progressive horses, particularly Hobbs's pair. I expect Nacarat to run his usual game race and not be far away, but Razor Royale looks the one at the prices. He hasn't run too badly this year, and looks to have been targeting a repeat win here. I got 16/1 in the week, but 12s or better remains value on my tissue.
Eider Chase
Not my sort of race - slow, slow horses plodding home through the mud, with whichever horse deciding it's "travelling day" hanging on to win. Still, I kept looking at Companero. In terrible form, but nicely weighted if the blinkers wake him up. Big if, and he's weak this morning but at 20s+ to win and 6s to place worth a throw of the dice.
So, something like:
Razor Royale £25ew at 14/1
Companero £15 win at 20s+ and £15 place at 6/1
£10 ew double
and if you fancy £25000 how about a cheeky tenner fourfold
Razor Royale, Companero, West Ham and Sheffield Wednesday....!
Be lucky.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Saturday 19th February
I hope some of you were on yesterday's 1,2 in the Tote Trophy, held over from Saturday!
Today it's mainly fairly uncompetitive graded races - we'll throw some doubles at them and see if some stick.
Ascot 2:25 doesn't look very competitive - I crossed most of them out anyway - Royal Tune a legitimate favourite but Iconoclast looks a good price to give him a race.
Haydock 3:20 Pricewise skewing this towards topweights, but personally I'd be looking low in the mud. Nothing really comes out as a worthwhile bet by itself but two at nicer prices would be Major Malarkey and Sarde.
So, my £100 would look something like this:
Iconoclast £30 win at 10/1
Iconoclast 10/1
Riverside Theatre 7/4
Any Given Day 9/4
Sarde 14/1/Major Malarkey 10/1
Holmwood Legend 6/1
Mille Chief 7/4
30 x £2 doubles (ie £4 doubles on the 5 races, then £2 doubles with Sarde and MM)
2 x £5 accas paying at least £80000. That should do it!
West Brom look too short tomorrow...
Today it's mainly fairly uncompetitive graded races - we'll throw some doubles at them and see if some stick.
Ascot 2:25 doesn't look very competitive - I crossed most of them out anyway - Royal Tune a legitimate favourite but Iconoclast looks a good price to give him a race.
Haydock 3:20 Pricewise skewing this towards topweights, but personally I'd be looking low in the mud. Nothing really comes out as a worthwhile bet by itself but two at nicer prices would be Major Malarkey and Sarde.
So, my £100 would look something like this:
Iconoclast £30 win at 10/1
Iconoclast 10/1
Riverside Theatre 7/4
Any Given Day 9/4
Sarde 14/1/Major Malarkey 10/1
Holmwood Legend 6/1
Mille Chief 7/4
30 x £2 doubles (ie £4 doubles on the 5 races, then £2 doubles with Sarde and MM)
2 x £5 accas paying at least £80000. That should do it!
West Brom look too short tomorrow...
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Saturday 12th Feb
Boy, this year's Tote Trophy looks wide open. To be honest I think I've let weight sway me the most price-wise and so have ended up with these three darts:
Recession Proof - despite inexperience.
Bothy - and hope the ground is soft enough.
Final Approach - ticks all the trends boxes and I had him in as slight fave.
Fine Parchment, a non runner for us a couple of week ago, goes in a lesser race at Warwick. At the price we'd best play.
Football - it's another week where some possible draws leap off the page - with derbies and relegation matches to the fore.
So, something like:
Recession Proof £15 at 16/1
Bothy £15 at 18/1
Final Approach £15 at 10/1
6 x £1 forecasts
Fine Parchment £20 at 10/1
Man Utd/Birmingham/West Brom £10 all draws
add Fulham draw Monday for a £10 fourfold
and for the treble
Noland/Fine Parchment/Recession Proof £10 to return £20000
Be lucky...
Recession Proof - despite inexperience.
Bothy - and hope the ground is soft enough.
Final Approach - ticks all the trends boxes and I had him in as slight fave.
Fine Parchment, a non runner for us a couple of week ago, goes in a lesser race at Warwick. At the price we'd best play.
Football - it's another week where some possible draws leap off the page - with derbies and relegation matches to the fore.
So, something like:
Recession Proof £15 at 16/1
Bothy £15 at 18/1
Final Approach £15 at 10/1
6 x £1 forecasts
Fine Parchment £20 at 10/1
Man Utd/Birmingham/West Brom £10 all draws
add Fulham draw Monday for a £10 fourfold
and for the treble
Noland/Fine Parchment/Recession Proof £10 to return £20000
Be lucky...
Saturday, February 05, 2011
Saturday 5th February
Right, I've covered Sandown so that you don't have to!
2:25 Wide open - I like Medermit, but not at the price against this lot. Captain Chris would have been a possible but for Pricewise killing the value. Hidden Keel probably isn't good enough, but he's the only one I priced up shorter than we can get.
3:00 These big field handicap hurdles aren't my thing these days. However, I do like Like A Hurricane down the bottom, on a day when Alan King's could go well. Kilcrea Kim also looks solid, as of course does the favourite. I priced Like A Hurricane at 5s, which looks a bit over the top, but that's going to be my bet of the day.
3:35 Take The Breeze looks a crazy price (whenever I say this they win easily). I'd much rather have Khachutarian or Leading Contender. That said, those two combined at around 7/4 isn't appealing either.
4:10 Alan King lands the treble with Call Me A Legend and we all go home happy. Well, it's not impossible! I don't like much else in this race, and if I need to chase to get my £100 back I could do worse than here.
As for the rest of the sport, how about three unfathomable upsets. Wolves, Italy and Scotland. I can't actually see any of them happening, let alone all three, but I could see all matches being tight for a long time. Trading opportunities, or handicap ones in the rugby for those playing at shorter odds, but us Saturday Gamblers prefer shooting for the stars, and there has to be some fun at 340/1 the treble.
So, something like:
Like A Hurricane £30 at 10/1
Like a Hurricane/Kilcrea Kim £2.50 combination exacta
Hidden Keel £15 at 10/1
Medermit/Like A Hurricane/Call Me A Legend £20 treble returns £4000+
Hidden Keel; Kilcrea Kim/Like A Hurricane; Khachaturian/Leading Contender; Call Me A Legend: - 4 x £5 fourfolds - returns £13000+
Italy/Scotland/Wolves £10 returns £3400
Be lucky...
2:25 Wide open - I like Medermit, but not at the price against this lot. Captain Chris would have been a possible but for Pricewise killing the value. Hidden Keel probably isn't good enough, but he's the only one I priced up shorter than we can get.
3:00 These big field handicap hurdles aren't my thing these days. However, I do like Like A Hurricane down the bottom, on a day when Alan King's could go well. Kilcrea Kim also looks solid, as of course does the favourite. I priced Like A Hurricane at 5s, which looks a bit over the top, but that's going to be my bet of the day.
3:35 Take The Breeze looks a crazy price (whenever I say this they win easily). I'd much rather have Khachutarian or Leading Contender. That said, those two combined at around 7/4 isn't appealing either.
4:10 Alan King lands the treble with Call Me A Legend and we all go home happy. Well, it's not impossible! I don't like much else in this race, and if I need to chase to get my £100 back I could do worse than here.
As for the rest of the sport, how about three unfathomable upsets. Wolves, Italy and Scotland. I can't actually see any of them happening, let alone all three, but I could see all matches being tight for a long time. Trading opportunities, or handicap ones in the rugby for those playing at shorter odds, but us Saturday Gamblers prefer shooting for the stars, and there has to be some fun at 340/1 the treble.
So, something like:
Like A Hurricane £30 at 10/1
Like a Hurricane/Kilcrea Kim £2.50 combination exacta
Hidden Keel £15 at 10/1
Medermit/Like A Hurricane/Call Me A Legend £20 treble returns £4000+
Hidden Keel; Kilcrea Kim/Like A Hurricane; Khachaturian/Leading Contender; Call Me A Legend: - 4 x £5 fourfolds - returns £13000+
Italy/Scotland/Wolves £10 returns £3400
Be lucky...
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Saturday 29th January
Was all set to give you the 1,2,3 in Doncaster's Sky Bet chase! Oh well...
I'm liking the look of the outsiders in the 2m5f chase at Cheltenham today. If you forgive his last run in the mud at Chepstow, then Fine Parchment looks a sporting each way bet today at 20/1. You also have to forgive current stable form, but I'll make him the cornerstone of the day. The Sawyer will be trained for this as well, and with doubts about many of these, I'll do a small saver.
I can't get excited about the Argento. Not least because I was going to put a cheeky tenner on The Tother One midweek, when he was trading at 70s on betfair, but decided he just couldn't be running...
Some nice-looking matches for draw betting in the FA cup, have attracted me instead.
So, something like:
Fine Parchment £25ew at 20/1
The Sawyer £10 at 20/1
£2.50 reverse forecast
£10 Treble returning £13000+
Fine Parchment 20/1
The Tother One 7/1
Southampton 7/1
Football 4 x £5 trebles and £5 acca - all draws:
Everton/Chelsea
Southampton/Man Utd
Wolves/Stoke
Fulham/Spurs
Be lucky.
I'm liking the look of the outsiders in the 2m5f chase at Cheltenham today. If you forgive his last run in the mud at Chepstow, then Fine Parchment looks a sporting each way bet today at 20/1. You also have to forgive current stable form, but I'll make him the cornerstone of the day. The Sawyer will be trained for this as well, and with doubts about many of these, I'll do a small saver.
I can't get excited about the Argento. Not least because I was going to put a cheeky tenner on The Tother One midweek, when he was trading at 70s on betfair, but decided he just couldn't be running...
Some nice-looking matches for draw betting in the FA cup, have attracted me instead.
So, something like:
Fine Parchment £25ew at 20/1
The Sawyer £10 at 20/1
£2.50 reverse forecast
£10 Treble returning £13000+
Fine Parchment 20/1
The Tother One 7/1
Southampton 7/1
Football 4 x £5 trebles and £5 acca - all draws:
Everton/Chelsea
Southampton/Man Utd
Wolves/Stoke
Fulham/Spurs
Be lucky.
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Saturday 22nd January
I thought I had some nice bets this morning but the weather has done its worst...
The more I look at the Victor Chandler the more I think I'm wasting my time. I'll probably shove a tenner on Gauvain (20/1) and Mad Max (14/1) and watch Master Minded stroll home. The race includes three horses that have been in my metaphysical stable in the past - Somersby, Kalahari King and Crackaway Jack - and that's another reason not to get heavily involved.
So, we're going to have an old-fashioned doubles day. Haven't had one of those for ages, and they're just the thing for a Saturday gambler looking for some interest over the day.
First off, Wincanton, and the meeting sponsored by the same people who sponsor Paul Nicholls' yard. He likes to give them a few winners, and although none of them look up to much today, it could be that the conditional jockey and Nicholls' apparent poor form may hold the prices up enough at guaranteed best odds, to make it worthwhile.
Next, the Premiership. Draws have been the way to go all season (I wish they had been that season I built an expensive system round them). Last week we had a nice 33/1 return on a draw treble, and whilst this week the bets aren't so obvious, I'll happily go in again.
So, Wincanton
Bold Addition/Promising Anshan/That'll Do/Symphonick/Ramses de Marcigny
10 x £4.50 doubles and £3 acc.
£2 acc the first four plus his second string Cap Elora in the last race.
Football
10 x £4.50 draws and £5 acca
Wolves/Liverpool
Blackpool/Sunderland
Fulham/Stoke
Newcastle/Spurs
Villa/Man City
Be lucky.
The more I look at the Victor Chandler the more I think I'm wasting my time. I'll probably shove a tenner on Gauvain (20/1) and Mad Max (14/1) and watch Master Minded stroll home. The race includes three horses that have been in my metaphysical stable in the past - Somersby, Kalahari King and Crackaway Jack - and that's another reason not to get heavily involved.
So, we're going to have an old-fashioned doubles day. Haven't had one of those for ages, and they're just the thing for a Saturday gambler looking for some interest over the day.
First off, Wincanton, and the meeting sponsored by the same people who sponsor Paul Nicholls' yard. He likes to give them a few winners, and although none of them look up to much today, it could be that the conditional jockey and Nicholls' apparent poor form may hold the prices up enough at guaranteed best odds, to make it worthwhile.
Next, the Premiership. Draws have been the way to go all season (I wish they had been that season I built an expensive system round them). Last week we had a nice 33/1 return on a draw treble, and whilst this week the bets aren't so obvious, I'll happily go in again.
So, Wincanton
Bold Addition/Promising Anshan/That'll Do/Symphonick/Ramses de Marcigny
10 x £4.50 doubles and £3 acc.
£2 acc the first four plus his second string Cap Elora in the last race.
Football
10 x £4.50 draws and £5 acca
Wolves/Liverpool
Blackpool/Sunderland
Fulham/Stoke
Newcastle/Spurs
Villa/Man City
Be lucky.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
King George
Kauto Star looks about the right price today, which doesn't give us much of a way into the race. I'm not interested in backing him, nor strongly opposing him. The places do look up for grabs though, with doubts about lots of these, not least in the conditions.
At the prices the two I'll take each way are Riverside Theatre and Madison Du Berlais. Riverside has to handle the ground and stay, but given his course record and the impression he made on me last year, 16/1 is at least fair. Madison Du Berlais has shown he can make a place in this race, and just needs a return to form to make 40/1 look generous. My friend who snaffled up 20/1 on him mid-week each way w/out Kauto Star has a nice bet, but that's sadly long since gone.
There's three Premiership derbies on Sunday. Can't stop myself doing the treble...
Riverside Theatre 20ew at 16/1
Madison Du Berlais 20ew at 40/1
Liverpool/Sunderland/Birmingham £10 treble all matches drawn.
2 x £5 fourfolds the above.
Be lucky...
At the prices the two I'll take each way are Riverside Theatre and Madison Du Berlais. Riverside has to handle the ground and stay, but given his course record and the impression he made on me last year, 16/1 is at least fair. Madison Du Berlais has shown he can make a place in this race, and just needs a return to form to make 40/1 look generous. My friend who snaffled up 20/1 on him mid-week each way w/out Kauto Star has a nice bet, but that's sadly long since gone.
There's three Premiership derbies on Sunday. Can't stop myself doing the treble...
Riverside Theatre 20ew at 16/1
Madison Du Berlais 20ew at 40/1
Liverpool/Sunderland/Birmingham £10 treble all matches drawn.
2 x £5 fourfolds the above.
Be lucky...
Saturday, January 08, 2011
Welsh National
I haven't done very well in this race over the years - you've been warned. When I lived in Bristol I used to go every year in the days when Martin Pipe farmed the race and even then I'd back two of his and the third one would win - you've been warned.
On my prices (where Synchronised looks very short) I'll go for three and hope the odds cover their rather obvious deficiencies:
Watamu Bay - inexperience and an already high rating - but it's not often you get to back a Nicholls improver at 12/1 in a race like this.
Imoncloudnine - liked the way he stayed on in Badger Ales - and softer ground no problem. Would be keener if it was a flat track.
Old Benny - obviously taking a flyer here on the old boy, but 25/1 off ten stone...
Once I looked at Old Benny I couldn't help but notice Oh Crick at Sandown and so today's double is for the Alan King old-timers to roll back the years! And a friend of a friend owns Kudu Country - he won't be at Sandown to watch him, and is hardly looking to hit one out of the ballpark, but what the hell I'll go for a fiver glory treble...
Something like:
Watamu Bay £25 at 12/1
Imoncloudnine £15 at 20/1
Oh Benny £15 at 25/1
Oh Benny/Oh Crick £10 double
Oh Benny/Oh Crick/Kudu Country £5 treble returns £28000
Be lucky...
On my prices (where Synchronised looks very short) I'll go for three and hope the odds cover their rather obvious deficiencies:
Watamu Bay - inexperience and an already high rating - but it's not often you get to back a Nicholls improver at 12/1 in a race like this.
Imoncloudnine - liked the way he stayed on in Badger Ales - and softer ground no problem. Would be keener if it was a flat track.
Old Benny - obviously taking a flyer here on the old boy, but 25/1 off ten stone...
Once I looked at Old Benny I couldn't help but notice Oh Crick at Sandown and so today's double is for the Alan King old-timers to roll back the years! And a friend of a friend owns Kudu Country - he won't be at Sandown to watch him, and is hardly looking to hit one out of the ballpark, but what the hell I'll go for a fiver glory treble...
Something like:
Watamu Bay £25 at 12/1
Imoncloudnine £15 at 20/1
Oh Benny £15 at 25/1
Oh Benny/Oh Crick £10 double
Oh Benny/Oh Crick/Kudu Country £5 treble returns £28000
Be lucky...
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