Saturday 23rd February

You must know the challenge bet surely? We've backed him three times already! Hobbs Hill is surprisingly weak this morning but frankly I don't see much to fear in the opposition. Anything better than 4/6 is terrific. He remains the best novice I've seen this year.

Racing Post Chase 3:15 Kempton

Gungadu 6/1

Ungaro 6/1

Dream Alliance 7/1

Burntoakboy 8/1

Bagan 9/1

Simon 10/1

Palarshan 20/1

Ardaghey 20/1

Most of the juice long gone from this race but my ante post portfolio is pleasing. I'm inclined to dive in again this morning though. Dream Alliance ran a cracker in the Hennessey, but bounced to the moon in the Welsh National. He was then set to win last time out when unseating. This course should suit, Dickie is actually pretty good round here, and of Hobbs last 11 runners in this, 7 placed. I'm on at 25s and 20s, but want more at 14s. He is of course capable of running complete stinkers so instead of each way I should probably do savers on a couple – Ungaro and Burnoatkboy probably. However, I have them on-side in my racing fund anyway, and the place price is quite attractive (considering my tissue price and Hobbs record). I'll leave you to choose your own sensible insurance.

Football. Fulham desperately need to win today. It pains me to say it but they probably won't. Anything better than 1.5 West Ham getting something out of the game is fair.

£500 Challenge

Hobbs Hill £25 win at 4/6 or better

Dream Alliance £15 win £10 place at 14/1

Friday 22nd February

I ended up doing a 20/80 bet on Modicum yesterday after all that musing. I liked the way the horse held up in the betting and the ride bears close comparison to the one at Mussleburgh when he drifted alarmingly. A yard to beware.

Decent enough racing Sandown and Warwick today.

Unfortunately the non runner in the 2:20 has reduced the front runners and, worse, killed the place bet I had in mond for Roznic. Noland has a jump round in the 3:30. Not entirely sure why King of Angels is fave in the 4:40. Oakfield Legend looks more interesting. Arnold Layne and Petite Margot may be dutchable at Warwick.

So, some potential plays but nothing obvious bar the Arkle favourite. I'm afraid he'll have to do for the challenge – it's been a quiet week. 4/1on guaranteed looks fair – the sort of price for a novice chaser to get people reaching for the smelling salts!

£500 Challenge

Noland £25 win at 1/4guaranteed

Thursday 21st February

Oh well, as some of you say, the golf was at least fun! Woods and Mickelson pulled their games out of the fire to set us back and in the end we made a bearable loss. I'll put it on the scrapheap of half decent ideas, but I'd be interested how anyone gets on should they pursue it further.

I should have kept it simple as my original bet was going to be Appleby to beat Clark at 4/6!

Today's novice chase at Huntingdon is a real headscratcher.

Huntingdon 2:50

Modicum 9/4

Desert Quest 4/1

Wee Forbees 4/1

Royals Darling 5/1

Caraman 9/1

Modicum is weighted to win and can be forgiven the last run on bad ground. On the other hand he has 7 2^nd places from 12 runs, is ridden by Rose and is a Nicky Richards fave – which I always find worrying. I keep thinking a place bet at 4/5 is attractive but keep pulling away from recommending it.

Desert Quest has changed to the fledgling yard Gask is setting up, I think under Harry Findlay's patronage, and that could help him. He's got the class, and a track to suit, but prefers big fields and has looked far from natural. He is also badly weighted and prefers second to first.

Wee Forbees can be forgiven his first run and his second was a decent effort, where he kept up a relentless pace. He's been backed this morning which rather deters me from one possible way in – back him now to lay in running.

Royals Darling had a regresive profile last year, and I rather think the same will happen here. Again I was going to just suggest laying him, possibly even place laying, but he's drifted all morning accordingly. Caraman is from one of my fave stables, but is old to be chasing and has an overall record of 2-28. He does have a chance though, so you can see how tricky this is. Quinn has three decent horses here today and I'll do a cheeky treble.

However, I've looked at the race for a couple of hours now, so for the challenge the only sensible thing to do is to pass. I can't find anything else, so sadly today there is no bet.

Wednesday 20th February

Tiptoeing along nicely this week.

I can't find anything in tonight's football. And the racing continues to be frozen.

So, here's a bit of fun I've done for the last couple of years. One year was great, and one a bearable loss. The venue is the World Matchplay golf and the bet is all the outsiders in their first round matches. The format allows for a lot of randomness – it's a bit like playing only one set of tennis. One year 50% of outsiders won their matches. Naturally, today could be the day that order is restored but on a difficult day why not have a dabble. I've taken the best prices I can find, mainly Victor Chandler. Bluesq and Betfair. There's 32 matches, but taking out the Even money match bets leaves us with a neat 25 matches to play.

£500 Challenge

All £1 win

JB Holmes at 4/1

Oberholser at 7/4

Calcavecchia at 5/4

Dredge at 15/8

Karlsson at 11/8

Villegas at 6/4

S Hansen at 5/4

Byrd at 15/8

Alenby at 13/10

Katayama at 6/4

Jones at 9/4

Senden at 6/4

Perez at 5/2

Clark at 11/8

Snedeker at 5/4

Pampling at 13/8

O Hern at 5/4

P Hanson at 19/10

Green at 13/10

Chopra at 6/4

A Hansen at 6/4

Dougherty at 6/4

Montogomerie at 11/8

Kelly at 15/8

Jiminez 11/8

Tuesday 19th February

Just as well that penalty didn't go in last night!

The racing remains on ice. Domestic football throws up prices on ratings for several home teams that could be 'value', but I can fully see in each instance why bookies are looking to get the teams in the satchel.

Which leaves us with the Champions League, something I usually give a wide berth. I was reading all the foreign journalists in the Racing Post this morning and was quite taken by how sure they were that Inter Milan and Real Madrid were the best two sides around right now. Their league positions provide plenty of back-up to such a notion. I can't help but notice they are 4^th and 5^th favourites on the outright just now – patriotism and Barcelona hype pushing them to feasibly decent odds. They are already part of my portfolio, but I'm topping up this morning at 9/1 and 10/1.

More mundanely for tonight the bet I've ended up with is under 2.5 goals in the Chelsea match. Olympiakos is a tough place to go, and this looks like one of those patient smash and grab jobs Chelsea excel at in the league. It's no price, but probably fair.

£500 Challenge

Chelsea/Olympiakos £25 under 2.5 goals at 4/7

Monday 18th February

I was all set for Carlisle this afternoon, but the frost has left me looking at – yep – the Championship. So much for promises!

To be frank I haven't got a value play here. My case is built on my ratings, which have Crystal Palace slightly more highly rated than Bristol City, whilst their league position says the opposite. Hopefully, I've covered most bases to get something out of the game.

£500 Challenge

Crystal Palace £21 +0.5 asian handicap at 1.75 or better

£4 Bristol City 1 Crystal Palace 0 correct score at 13/2 or better

Sunday 17th February

Off to enjoy the winter sunshine of Shropshire, so briefly.

Towcester 4:20

The fave is 0-16 or something and has a serious case of the slows. That's not a great problem when the jockeys reach for the crampons at the foot of the hill at Towcester but even so the race is only 2m6f. Gaelic Gift has shaped with no more than a glimmer of ability against the best but should be more competitive in this poor mare's field. The weakness of the race provides a nice shape to the market.

£500 Challenge

Gaelic Gift £5 win at 7/2+ and £20 place at 4/6+

Saturday 16th February

Stoke came back from the dead last night. One of the benefits of backing odds on faves is that they often pull wins out of the fire against plucky losers. On the other hand, as I at least intimated beforehand, it just goes to show what a ridiculously mediocre league the championship is. I promise I won't pick another game from that division for a challenge bet this season.

A lot of decent racing today – I need to tread carefully.

Ascot 1:15

Joe Lively 4/1

Air Force One 4/1

Over the Creek 4/1

Albertas Run 9/2

Ice Tea 8/1

Battlecry 10/1

This is an interesting race. I can't get very excited about the front of the market here. Joe Lively has been flattered a couple of times and doesn't set an exacting standard; Air Force One is looking overhyped but promising, and Albertas Run's jumping needs to improve and as we know comes from stable misfiring. Over the Creek could be competitive on handicap form. Strangely I'm drawn to the last two. Battlecry let us down last week, but pulled too hard and made a big blunder when getting into it. If you forgive him that he has a similar chance to last week. Ice Tea is a horse I really like and who has already won twice for us this season, albeit at Hexham. This ground will suit, and I only regret there's not another runner for a great ew bet. I'm still playing at 20/1 though.

Ascot 2:25

Kauto Star 2/1on

Monets Garden 8/1

Racing demon 8/1

Fair Along 12/1

Vodka Bleu 20/1

Kauto Star's to lose. There has to be doubts about trip and course though. Ascot has been a funny place since the refurbishment. The home straight seems to throw up strange results as horses move from normal going onto what appears to be perpetually firm ground. Finding something to take advantage isn't easy though, especially if not keen on the next two in the market. I keep looking at Fair Along. I'd love to see Hobbs revert to old tactics and just let him bowl along in front, enjoy himself, and get them all at it. Not sure how I'll actually play it yet.

Haydock 1:05 and the Vodka Chase both look really tricky races, as does the 3:10 Wincanton, and I'll pass over them here.

Wincanton 3:40

Katchit Evens

Blythe Knight 3/1

Amaretto Rose 4/1

On the assumption Amaretto Rose isn't ready (which the vibes suggest), this looks a match. Blythe Knight is looking underrated on the back of his last run when the trainer was in very poor form and the horse had been on the go a long time. Refreshed and on a course that should suit he can really put it to Katchit, who is tough and genuine but who could struggle to make those qualities count on this track. 9/2 was cracking, 4/1 remains 'value'.

Football, I'll ignore the cup matches and stick with Swansea. Port Vale ship goals and would be the Derby of their league were it not for the two teams in administration keeping them company. The 4/5 earlier in the week was great – 1.75 remains acceptable.

£500 Challenge

(It's time we upped stakes again. I'll split the racing bets though)

Swansea £25 win at 1.75

Blythe Knight £19 win at 9/2 (4/1 ok)

Ice Tea £4.50 win at 20/1

(£1 double Blythe Knight and Ice Tea – say 100/1)

(50p treble Blythe Knight, Ice Tea and Fair Along – say 1750/1!)

Thursday 14th February

I'm off to London for a couple of days so will put up a challenge bet for today and tomorrow – not that you'll get rich on either of them.

Today. Frankie Figg should have little trouble winning at Kelso. He was in the process of giving Nevertika a real race when he fell first time out. His only credible opponent is very old to be going chasing and gave little encouragement first time out. I'm always a bit wary of Ho Jo but to be honest 2/1on is fair enough. He may well drift. I've matched half my bet this morning and left half as a trial of betfair's SP system.

Tomorrow. Stoke have reached the top of my ratings which, given the hopless mediocrity of this division, means they'll start losing.Scunthorpe have hit rock bottom – cue a row of wins! Despite these misgivings I'll play the ratings.

£500 Challenge

Frankie Figg £20 win at 4/7 (1/2ok)

Tomorrow

Stoke £20 win at 8/13 (4/6ok).

Weds 13th February

Disappointing end to the day yesterday.

Leicester's novice chase looks a tricky one. I'll play the handicap chase at 3:00 pm instead.

The way into this race is that I doubt Mokum will get home over 3m, particularly on this track. I'm surprised to see him fave to be honesy, so that must provide an opportunity elsewhere. Sadly, separating the wheat from the chaff isn't easy. I'll attack it in two ways.

Firstly I'll give Parkinson a chance at 11/2. He has been running badly of late, but hasn't had his conditions – which are basically a small field and a right handed track. Secondly I'll back Killard Point to place at Evens.This is the only horse in the field with solid credentials and though the weight could play against him in the win market he should be able gallop on into a place. I'd have him at least at 4/5 to place. We profit if either are right, with the possible bonus of collecting on both bets.

£500 Challenge

Parkinson £5 win at 11/2

Killard Point £15 place at Evens

Tuesday 12th February

Arsenal's 91^st minute goal was a bugger. At least Verasi kept us ticking over.

I've had real trouble this morning deciding on the challenge bet from 3 bets I have lined up. In the end I've fudged the staking – not something to please the professional purists, but has worked quite well when done in the past. I can see reasons not to bet any of them, but also could easily have put any one of them up.

Folkestone 2:30 sees a match and I'm not sure why it isn't 5/4 each of two. That being so we have to play the 6/4 Polinamix who at least has shown he can jump and has only been beaten by two very decent yardsticks.

Football and we get a chance to get after Bury again. This will be the last time if it goes wrong as their managerial change will be looking shrewd. However their victory and Wycombe's loss is inflating the price on the latter.

We can also stick with Crystal Palace who are odds on in my book, but the bookies are after them – not least due to their unfortunate habit of drawing 1-1 at home – feel free to cover that eventuality. I think I'll do the treble these bets as well.

£500 Challenge

£10 win Polinamix 6/4

£10 win Wycombe 6/4

£10 win Crystal Palace 13/10

Monday 11th February

Not the best of days yesterday, but to be frank my relief at Cameroon not winning the African Nations Cup overrides any disappointment at giving up half our stake on a hapless Chelsea, or on a very disappointing ride from Ruby.

The challenge has been suffering a readjustment over the last week or so though, and putting up two a day Saturday and Sunday was asking for trouble.

Today, Blackburn have a good record against Arsenal, but not their last three league matches away to them. Odds of 4/5 getting 1.5 goals headstart are tempting but not for the challenge.

Two novice chases at Plumpton left then. In the second one I'm no fan of Adopted Hero. I am a fan of Andrew Balding NH horses and Kerviou ran well at Ludlow last time. I also have an inkling for Give Me A Dime. He tried to make a race of it with O'Maley last time and paid the price but he jumped well to that point. Gifford doesn't exactly fire in the chase winners at this course and you have to worry he may concentrate on getting a handicap mark, but I'd still like to keep him on-side.

So, for the challenge we are just left with one from our 'stable'. Verasi has already won for us twice and should really have a hat-trick. Double penalty and drying ground are both legititmate reasons to oppose him here, and I think he'll drift as money comes for the Nicholls horse. I'm hoping he'll go odds against, but 10/11 or better is fair.

£500 Challenge

Verasi £20 at 10/11+

Sunday 10th February

I'm out for lunch today so am not at all sure why I'm putting up two bets today.

Still, we have to continue with the theme of opposing Liverpool, especially away to Chelsea this afternoon. We can save half the stake on a draw using the asian handicaps, and at the price I actually have Chelsea to win.

Leopardstown 3:50

The Listener 5/2

Snowy Morning 5/2

Nickname 11/2

Mister Topnotch 10/1

The Listener likes it hock-deep, a soft lead, and this 3m is right at the limit of his stamina. Oh, and all his best form has come prior to January each season. Good reasons to find something to beat him. Nickname looks unlikley to get the trip. So, realistically that leaves the two improvers, of whom by far the most likely is Snowy Morning. Ruby has chosen him over most the field and although he hasn't got a rating on the board that would trouble these, this looks a good time to start. The 5/1 would have been great but Pricewise and an almond croissant this morning scuppered that. 4/1 still very fair. Save on Mister Topnotch if you will, my racing fund will.

At Exeter I'd have been interested in Dream Alliance (200/1 for the National worth a dabble), Bible Lord and King Louis but won't be around to price up and monitor, so will chuck them into doubles with Snowy and forget about them.

£500 Challenge

Chelsea £20 at 8/11 -0.25 asian handicap (4/6 ok)

Snowy Morning £20 win at 4/1

Saturday 9th February

Don't forget the Villa game lunchtime – recommended yesterday.

Today, I'll add Bradford to the mix to beat Bury at 4/5. Bury are woeful and probably the price is being offered in places due to the football myth that new managers improve teams for their first few games. We'll make this a challenge bet.

I haven't a clear-cut racing bet today and should probably stick with the football for the challenge, but as most readers are primarily racing fans let's cobble something together.

Newbury 1:35

Heres Johnny 9/4

Mr Strachan 3/1

Battlecry 4/1

Ornais 11/2

A sketchy tissue. I can see reasons not to like a couple of these though. Ornais was flattered when beating Joe Lively as the race fell in his lap off a ridiculous pace, and he needs to improve his jumping. Here's Johnny also has Joe Lively formlines, but it looked to me that 3m really stretches him. A trip on the other hand is what Mr Strachan and Battlecry need. The former outstayed our old friend Kruguyrova and Battlecry has been wanting a trip all season. At 11-2 I'll play the latter and save on Mr Strachan.

Newbury 2:10

Voy Per Ustedes 6/4

Master Minded 6/4

L'antartique 8/1

Mahogany Blaze 8/1

The last two named are favourites of mine – can't see this suiting them though. I've never been in Voy Per Ustedes' camp – Alan King is a real expert at peaking horses and they can run stinkers accordingly. VPU did last year in this, which is a worry. Master Minded couldn't have been any more impressive on his debut and it's clear connections think he may be yet another special one. On the book this is a big ask and I couldn't make him a 'value' bet, but do feel this is his on the way to giving Nicholls a headache over whether to run him in the Champion Chase or Ryanair.

Newbury 3:20

Can't be arsed to put the tissue up. Suffice to say I have shortlisted 18 of the runners – so take your pick! For me, that means delving down into the lower reaches of the market. And for your delectation I have plumped for Pace Shot at any price you want. This is natuarally a huge stab in the dark – he won a seller two runs back for crissakes. Still, you can forgive him floundering in Sandown's mud last time out, his trainer is a wizard at 2m hurdle handicappers and for a horse that once came 4^th in a Triumph he's settled nicely in the weights. Naturally, he's much more likely to be tailed off and pulled up after a mile, but with 17 quality opponents I'd rather cadge a ride with him than back one of the market leaders at silly odds. Kings Quay is one of my stable horses. I'll play him as well, but in my head, whilst the flat track is Ok, he's a speed course horse.

We'll avoid Kruguyrova in a tricky heat (though I'm sure my mugpunter head will force a punt). Which leaves Ayr.

Ayr 2:55

Cloudy Lane evens

Jonnys Kick 4/1

Cloudy Lane is a bit of a hype horse and he won't be hit here. He also has to give close to two stone in soft ground to the only other legitimate contender. On the other hand he travels so well, and Jonny's Kick looks very likely to bounce. Again, no proper value, just a sense that Cloudy Lane will continue on the up. (For what it's worth I wouldn't be so keen on his National chances – he may make a fool of me, but I think he may lack the stamina when push comes to shove).

I think my get rich quick scheme will focus on Master Minded and Cloudy Lane and build up trebles etc around them.

So – two lots of challenge bets today.

£500 Challenge

£20 Bradford beat Bury at 4/5

£6 Battlecry at 11/2

£6 Master Minded at 6/4

£6 Cloudy Lane at 5/4

£1 win Pace Shot at 200/1+ and £1 place at 20/1+

Friday 8th February

The African Nations Cup was the book I had earmarked to replace the salary my wife has given up by going part-time. I thought it was plain sailing, but now not only are Egypt playing just to keep me in profit, but also to avoid Cameroon making me squeal like a pig. Cameroon were desperate last night – a sort of disorganised Bolton – surely they can't....

A decent card at Kempton today.

2:05 Kempton

Barbers Shop 5/4

Oscar Park 3/1

Russian Around 7/2

Star Shot 20/1

Henderson should have a line on Russian Around but I still like the latter's chances. Whilst Oscar Park probably should be 2^nd fave, this looks short and fast enough for him, and he ran like a dog last time. Russian Around on the other hand, overcame what looked like a bounce and ran well last time, and this speed track should suit. Assuming the dead eight run he looks a fair ew bet – seeing as he's 1.5 the place on betfair currently.

3:10 Kempton

Gwanako evens

Miss Mitch 9/4

Mister Quasimodo 9/1

Nirvana Du Bourg 20/1

Nicholls seems to have really sussed out these graduation chases and I'm a bit wary of opposing him again. We have backed Mister Quasimodo before and this is more like his thing after losing his way upped in grade. He probably prefers a more galloping track though. Miss Mitch jumped beautifully first time out, and was going similarly well until putting her hind legs in the water at Wincanton. There is a doubt about her wellbeing and confidence after that, but on the other hand she gets loads of weight from most of these. I thik I'll play, and save on Quasimodo, and do the double. And why not aim for the moon and treble up in the tricky handicap with Briery Fox and Herecomestanley.

However, after last week's success I'm inclined to stick with tomorrow's football for the challenge bet. And I don't see much reason this weekend not to continue the somewhat boring, but considerably profitable theme of opposing Newcastle, Bury and Liverpool!

Aston Villa are 8/11 with me to beat Newcastle who continue to lack invention and cutting edge. Villa score freely, and although they do concede, Newcastle haven't scored more than one away from home since August. Villa were beaten somewhat surreally by Fulham at the weekend and that may explain why they are nearly Evens in place, along with the lingering punter belief that Keegan is going to turn the oil tanker around rather than run it aground.

£500 Challenge

Aston Villa £20 beat Newcastle at 10/11+

Thursday 7th February

The novice chase looks very informative today with Leading Attraction and Karanja making debuts off a long break and Mith Hill stepping into the fray. One to watch though. The juvenile hurdle at Huntingdon looks similarly one to note for the future rather than to punt.

That was going to leave me looking at the African Nations semi-finals. My overall book on the tournament sees me profiting as long as Cameroon don't win, and from what I've seen there's little doubt Ivory Coast are the best team. However, it's not best recommended to press up on a the knock-out stages of a football comp I've only had on in the background!

Luckily, Cathedral Rock caught my eye. He's won for us before and is now in a novice handicap – something I usually avoid at all costs. Still, he looked to have a good engine that day and this is a pretty humdrum race. Gifford is in cracking form and has won this race before. Cheekpieces not so inspiring. We can cover ourselves for a place.

£500 Challenge

Cathedral Rock £5 win at 3/1 and £15 place at 4/6.

Weds February 6th

After yesterday's experience with the novice chasers I'm a touch shy of plunging in again. Still, here goes!

The 2:10 Ludlow is a likeable shape, not least because old friend Harringay is favourite. Now 0-8 in chases, though to be fair was travelling well last time, when O'Regan failed to count to three. Earth Man opposes but isn't one to have a lot of faith in. That leaves Menchikov. Henderson's been on fire with his virgin novices off a long break, and even yesterday's faller was going well at the time. Menchikov is rated way higher than Earth Man over hurdles, and 15/8 looks a decent price in a three horse race with two I don't like.

The 2:55 Carlisle looks a penalty kick for Circassian, and I'm surprised (and a little worried) that he's not odds on.

Let's combine for the challenge so that we profit if one wins.

£500 Challenge

Menchikov £8 win at 15/8 (7/4 OK)

Circassian £12 win at 11/10 (Evens OK)

Tuesday 5th February

There are two novice chases today of interest. Difficult to find an early price bet though. Negus De Beaumont is supposedly Murphy's best novice and I've already had a small bet for the Sun Alliance. That looks wasted though and this confidence booster over a trip too short won't tell us much. There are a couple of decent opponents here, especially McCain's. 5/4 is probably fair and I'd probably back him if he drifts badly as looks likely, but for now I'll sit tight.

The novice chase at Market Rasen looks a match and with the French raider an unknown quantity it's hard to price up. I'd probably side with Theatre Diva, but Venetia Williams' course form hardly inspires confidence and he'd have to drift similarly to Negus for me to become interested.

So, it looks like football will carry the challenge money again.

Stockport are away to Bury. I was updating my ratings and see that Bury are now bottom of my ratings, despite being only 4^th bottom in the table. Stockport's away form is decent and this league seems to have gone away win mad this year. MK Dons must have loved being able to quench their goal-thirst at Bury over the weekend, and I'll take Stockport, whilst protecting some of our bet in the case of a draw, especially as 11/10 is actually my ratings price for Stockport to win.

£500 challenge

Stockport £20 at 11/10 (bigger available) -0.25 asian handicap

Monday 4th February

No question I rode my luck this weekend. Quite apart from Tiger's and Middlesbrough's late rallies, it was the bets I could have done that played out well. I could easily have laid Fulham, backed the Patriots and indeed England's rugby team. It would be easy to congratulate myself on my decision making, but with the wind in a different direction I could easily have got all 5 the wrong way round.

That said, a book I read recently has had a very calming effect on my betting, although the book itself is nothing to do with betting. The book is Nasim Nicholas Taleb's “Black Swan”, (and an earlier book of his “Fooled by Randomness”).

I'm indebted to the systemites from theracingforum.co.uk for introducing me to the books. They are essentially philosphical treatises on financial markets , and whilst not directly applicable to sports trading have a lot to say about how we approach trading. I've found the chapters around “noise” very helpful, and they have really helped me with something I have been struggling with for 30 months - dealing with the transition from part-time gambler to full-time gambler.

Distinguishing between being seen to work (including by yourself) and actual useful work, was something I was pretty good at in the old office world. But it's much more subtle as a full-time gambler and I think I fell into the trap of doing lots of stuff that gave the illusion of being a full-time gambler but didn't provide any real edge. It's a form of 'busyness' for the sake of proving to those around you (and yourself) that you really are doing a proper job (even though, of course you're not). I think a more meditative approach has really sharpened my game. That said, Taleb would be the first to tell me I'm proably just fooling myself. Let's see if I think the same after the inevitable 8 consecutive losers!

I think I'll return to this subject.

However, today is the first day of my wife's new working life. She has gone part-time, and from now on Mondays will be the old Sundays. So, we're off for a walk, and there'll be no challenge bet today.

Sunday 3rd February

I could be tempted into plays on Villa, Ivory Coast and the rugby in-running, on a day for hiding from the wind.

Let's hope I'm in a good mood by then as the main bet will be the early game. Newcastle have had just two shots on target in the last three games. Middlesbrough are going through a pretty decent patch, and I already have them rated the higher team. I'd go more like 4/6 that they'll get something from the game.

£500 Challenge

Middlesbrough +0.5 Asian handicap £20 at 4/5 or better

(shades of 10/11 available on Betdaq).

Saturday 2nd February

Quick and easy this snowy Saturday – well at least it's deep and crisp and even (and bloody cold) in sunny Shropshire, I expect my old stamping ground is mild and slushy at best!

Sandown 3:10

Anyone paying any attention will already know what I'm going to say as we've already backed him twice in the challenge. Hobbs Hill has beaten his two main rivals here hollow and I can't see much reason why they should turn tables – Silverburn off worse weights, Lead On not proven much by beating Predateur. Wee Robbie was gifted that race last week and to be honest the only one that bothers me is Henderson's back off a long break. Hobbs Hill seems to have been underrated every time he's run, and this morning he's notably weak again. I'm already on at very near 2/1, and just praying for no non runners!

£500 Challenge

Hobbs Hill £20 at 7/4 (anything over 5/4 to be honest)

Don't forget Darlington, advised yesterday. Tiger is currently doing his best to make this the first tournament he's lost from the front.

Friday February 1

A strange Friday – scratching around for anything. The racing is dire. I can see Presenting Copper beating Royals Darling at this course and at the revised weights, but otherwise nothing.

So for the challenge let's go to tomorrow's football, as I rarely put a football bet up on Saturday for the challenge. I'm on MK Dons and Swansea for their divisions and a big pay-out double awaits, but the Dons are a cause for disquiet at the moment. So, whilst I believe this bet is value, it also acts as a form of hedge for me.

Darlington look the best team in the division to be honest. They have finally topped my ratings and their defensive record looks like it may be the difference. Wrexham are not as bad as they were but just don't score. I really think Darlington should be odds on for this one. Save on 0-0 if you must.

£500 Challenge

Darlington to beat Wrexham £20 at 11/10

Friday February 1 - review of £500 Challenge

Here's the monthly summary of progress to date:

£500 Challenge

Fund currently stands at: £907.42

Football bets

35 bets

21 winners

143% returns

Racing Bets

98 bets

44 winners

118% returns

All bets

145 bets

70 winners

117% returns.

Thursday 31st January

Damn, chose the wrong match for the challenge yesteday. Still, I hope some of you took on Liverpool again and the small loss on Everton is OK.

Some interesting choices today. A couple of races at Wincanton worth looking at:

3:10 Wincanton

Fleet Street 9/4

Predateur 9/4

Pur De Sivola 4/1

Gentle John 8/1

The pace of this race looks critical. There are three potential front runners and on rain-softened ground that could play into Predateur's hands. If not Pur de Sivola looks a nice price – he ran out of gas over 2m5f here, and whilst 2m may not be far enough, rain and pace could make it just about perfect to make most of the weight he gets from the favourites. The 6/1 has been snaffled up. 11/2 and even 5/1 perfectly fair. You may want to manage this bet in-running though, and not be afraid to sell it should they go off like idiots (think Mahogany Blaze).

4:10 Wincanton

Pedros Brief 7/2

Fundamentalist 4/1

Kelrev 7/1

Cossack Dancer 9/1

Supreme Prince 9/1

Tango Royal 9/1

What a terrific idea for a race. Shame there actually looks like there's a progressive horse in there! Fundamentalist looks short to me, particularly if the rains have come. Winning one of those graduation chases doesn't mean his jumping is suddenly cured. Cossack Dancer will need a soft lead and Kelrev has previously struggled when rated 133. Supreme Prince has no form to shout about but is on his lowest ever rating. Tango Royal is back on his last winning rating, runs well fresh, and usually pops up when least expected by everyone bar the stable. Both are 16/1 and, given this is a race framed to be forgiving to these sort of horses, both are worth backing, whilst keeping Pedros Bob onside.

In the African Nations cup we have another of those conspiracy matches. (Angola v Tunisia). You'd have thought this would be another no-brainer challenge bet. However, I really can see this why this one could be a carve up. Two evenly matched teams who can guarantee going through if they help each other, but who are vulnerable if they don't. At the prices I'll have to lay the draw, and will look to get out if a goal is scored. Given that tactic, I'll swerve it as far as the challenge is concerned.

So what are we left with for the challenge? Tiger Woods has just shot 65 in Dubai. Ridiculous form. Stenson can still lay down a challenge this morning with his back 9 to come. Beforehand I thought it could well come down to a simple match between the two golfers who did so well for us last week, and that already seems the case. Frankly 1.5 Tiger is perfectly fair, and if Stenson does get close today you may even get better than that.

£500 Challenge

Tiger £20 win Dubai Classic at 1.5 or better.

Wednesday 30th January

I don't much like the novice chase at Exeter today – Manhattan Boy and Malakiya are ones to oppose but the possibles are all first timers.

Looks like it'll have to be Premiership football instead. As usual Liverpool's price looks too short. West Ham look a decent bet to get something out of the game at Evens, considering my tissue has Liverpool at only 11/8 to win! (For those who like long term bets, you could do a lot worse than lay Liverpool for the top 4 at around 1.5. Of course, if I get both of tonight's results wrong that could look a hollow tip!).

However, for a change let's go elsewhere for the bet of the day. Everton remain underrated and, whilst comfortable with the notion that Ramos is getting Spurs back to something like last year's level, the fact remains that Spurs have only won one away game this year and Goodison isn't an obvious place to improve on that record. No Cahill is a worry. We can back Everton at +0.25 on the Asians at 11/10, and so get half our stake back in the event of a draw at the same price as I actually have them to win.

£500 Challenge

Everton £20 at 11/10 on the Asian handicap at -0.25

Tuesday 29th January

It was interesting (if expensive) watching Palace/Leicester last night. Two players from Fulham's early surge on show. Matt Lawrence was a young full-back who had a great game the night we went to White Hart Lane and were dumped out the cup 4-1, strangely the first vestiges of a team going somewhere. Harry Bayles (as he was known) was of the type that not only did the crowd not have a clue as to what he may do next, but neither did he. Judging by his winner last night that remains the case!

Good to see them thriving at their level. There was an amazing turnover of players over the 6 years or so we went from bottom of the league to premiership. So many of those from the early days seem to have drifted out of the game altogether.

Mind you at one stage we had Van Der Saar, Maik Taylor and Hannehman as our goalkeeping roster. Considering they are now all first choices at other Premiership clubs that was some stockpiling!

Anyway, on with the show.

The novice chases today are decidedly iffy. Robin De Sherwood looked one to take on but with only an Emma Lavelle runner needing one more run for a handicap looking credible opposition, I'll sit that one out. At Folkestone Iconoclast could improve but is up against a Henderson mare off a long break and he's been bending me over with those too often of late.

Tonight's domestic football isn't straightforward either. I have four teams backable on ratings, but can see exactly why the bookies have them at the tempting prices they do. Not least they all have trouble scoring at home. I think I'll cover them in a 'just in case' accumulator and forget them – for what it's worth the teams are Sheff Utd, Crewe, Bradford and Grimsby, and you can get over 30/1 on betfair.

So we're left with the African Nations cup. Ivory Coast would normally be something like 4/6 to beat Mali, but it's conspiracy time again and fears of a fixed draw have once again skewed the market. “Drogba's wife is Malinese”; “Economic partnerships and close neighbours” etc. Given your average African nation makes Italy look corruption-free you would be mad not to worry. On the other hand the £500 Challenge has profited handsomely from ignoring such conspiracy theories this year. I'll wade in and shrug stoically when the pass the ball amongst themselves for the last 80 minutes! It's perfectly possible to get 0-0 on your side but I'll be greedy.

£500 Challenge

Ivory Coast £20 win at 6/4+

Monday 28th January

A good weekend and the challenge fund tiptoes over £900. Which didn't look very likely last summer!

A readjustment is imminent no doubt, and as we only recently upped stakes I'm inclined to stick with current staking for now.

French Saulaie would be a bet today around Evens but for now I'll stick with tonight's football.

Crystal Palace are on fire and can stretch their unbeaten run at the expense of a revamped Leicester side. We can back Palace on the asians not far off where I have them priced outright. Of course my prices are wrong but getting half our money back in the event of a draw seems perfectly reasonable.

£500 Challenge

Crystal Palace £20 at 5/4 at -0.25 Asian handicap.

Sunday 27th January

Irish Champion hurdle today – I'll skip the FA Cup.

As you know my ante post bets for the Champion Hurdle are tied to Osana's wings. I have back- ups in Ebazaiyan and Sizing Europe who both run here. I took long odds about Ebazaiyan partly because the going and Cheltenham suit him so well, but mainly because I backed him at 500/1 odd for the Supreme last year. Sizing Europe had to be a bet if believing Osana's form lines, and of the Dylanesque persuasion that the old order is rapidly fading.

Not hard to expect Sizing Europe to win today then. I wouldn't say 3/1 was value, but it is fair, and may drift even more.

£500 Challenge

Sizing Europe £20 at 3/1

Saturday 26th January

Kruguyrova continues to be my new Persian Punch. That was actually the sort of race to divide value bettors and growth bettors the world over. I'd say 6/4 and better about Kruguyrova was a damned fine bet even though it lost, whilst others would say the fave was better value since it actually won! I'll stick with my canoe.

A few tissues today:

Cheltenham 2:10

Nacarat 4/1

Private Be 6/1

Patman Du Charmil 6/1

Maljimar 6/1

New Little Bric 6/1

Time TO Sell 20/1

My front three have all done me well this year. Private Be on the other hand hasn't. Dickie (my least fave top flight jumps jockey – a Richard Hughes of the sticks) gave him a woeful ride in the Mackeson as was. Hopefully he'll be ridden with a bit more sense this time. If so, he looks a long price this morning. I'll try to keep my other faves on-side.

Cheltenham 2:40

Simon 4/1

Our Vic 4/1

Neptune Collonge 4/1

Madison Du Berlais 9/2

State of Play 7/1

Our Vic doesn't seem to get up the hill over this trip and Neptune Collonges probably needs softer and may be a bit short first time out. Madison Du Berlais has been running well and there may be more to come over this trip. Simon remains in very good heart. Both of them were thought to prefer flatter tracks but have run respctably enough at Cheltenham this year. I'd rather be with them than the front two.

Cheltenham 3:50

Inglis Drever 6/4

Blaxing Bailey 9/4

Millennium Royal 9/1

Sonnyandjoe 12/1

No-one can turn me off my favourite Inglis Drever. I remain of the mind that the horse doesn't receive the respect he's due, probably not helped by his admittedly strange way of running. However, if there's a horse that likes the downhill stretch on this track better than him I've not seen him. He's weak this morning – on the back of rumours of being held up in work, and on Blazing Bailey's defeat of him in this race last year. I'm not overly worried about either of these, (more worried about dear old Dickie being on top), and would happily back him on the drift.

Doncaster 3:00

An Accordion 8/1

Opera Mundi 9/1

Yardbird 11/1

Bagan 11/1

Juveigneur 12/1

Rambling Minster 12/1

Ungaro 12/1

Brooklyn Brownie 25/1

Thistlecraft 25/1

Ligo de Louge 25/1

Probably not my finest tissue. It's the sort of race I've turned against over the last couple of seasons. At the prices there are three who you'd give chances to as long as you were forgiving. Juveigneur has threatened to win a big one and likes races like the Hennessey where he can travel at pace over a trip. The going should allow that to happen today. The Reveley pair Rambling Minster and Ungaro unfortunately both prefer righthanded tracks but probably need to come late in big fields. Doncaster is one of the best tracks to do that and if we can get a few nutters loose up front (in truth there are no obvious pace horses but big fields on faster going than expected usually hare off), one of them could come through late. Tentative for sure, but all three have a touch of class and I don't think this will be the war of attrition it usually is..

£500 Challenge

Inglis Drever £20 at 7/4 guaranteed.

Woods and Stenson doing just fine, so far.

Friday 25th January

My entry into Shifnal society is almost entirely complete. Tonight I have tickets to the hottest show in town – a 'flicks in the sticks' showing of Atonement in the village hall, £3.50 plus tea and cakes.

I believe we'll be singing Jerusalem afterwards.

So let's see if I can find the cash to pay for this society highlight.

Regulars should look away now as we are back with Kruguyrova. Big Buck's hasn't impressed me much, not least his errant apostrophe! I priced them up at 5/4 each of two, so 6/4 this morning is a no-brainer and 11/8 also fine.

£500 Challenge

£20 win Kruguyrova at 6/4

Thursday 24th January

Three interesting novice chases today. All tricky enough though, so I think I'll continue what looks a theme of the week and build a portfolio for the challenge bet.

Warwick 2:40

Sobers won for us last time, but to be frank was lucky to do so. He'll need to jump much better over these fences. Pauillac has been no great shakes as well. They both look vulnerable. Stolen Moments and Good Company have nothing to recommend them other than their stables but they wouldn't have to be up to much to cause an upset here.

Fontwell 1:50

Interesting shape to this race as well. The Henderson horse could be anything but looks short for her debut. Oscar Dangron is now 0-15. You need to excuse the next two, but Russian Around could well have 'bounced' last time, and Victorias Groom benefitted from a quiet confidence booster last time that will have done her the world of good. At the prices they are very backable.

Fontwell 2:50

O'Maley is going to have his supporters on strength of two course and distance wins. He jumped slow and to the right throughout last time though, and only his engine got him home against some poor horses. Air Force One remains potentially high class. The going is a worry but he was OK last time, and who knows he may even drift to a tasty price.

I think I'll aim for the trebles as well.

£500 Challenge

Air Force One £12 win at 4/5+

Russian Around £2 win at 8/1

Victorias Groom £2 at 15/2

Good Company £2 at 11/2

Stolen Moments £2 at 13/2

Weds 23rd January

I am interested in the chases at Huntingdon today.

The novices chase includes a few I'd have doubts about. Flying Falcon hasn't looked to be getting home; Antonius Ceasar beat nothing last time after looking a bit of a dog before that; and La Briar Soul is probably worth taking on under a penalty. Stoway may improve for the step up in trip but will need to. All in all a trappy race. Sherwoods Folly keeps catching the eye, despite having run down the field behind a couple of these. He was much better last time, and Daly targets this race. I remember Jaunty Times coming into this in similar vein. In particular I'm taken by the fact he has a decent handicap mark to exploit but has chosen to re-oppose some of these here. I priced at 9/2. 7/1 has gone. 6/1 still looks fair.

The handicap chase is full of horses to discard. Georges Boy at the bottom looks the only one with any obvious potential. I'll wait on prices, espcially with the dead eight.

For the challenge though, and with some trepidation, we are going to tiptoe over to golf for the first time in ages. Like the Racing Post tipsters I feel the favourites this weekend look slight value, given their respective course records and the lack of contenders with obvious similar course form.

£500 Challenge

Woods £10 win Buick at 5/4

Henson £4.50ew Qatar 11/1

£1 win double at around 25/1

Tuesday 22nd January

Well done Villa – a nice push for my top 6 bet on them as well.

I've spent the last hour thinking about how to play tonight for the challenge. There's three matches where I quite like the prices and will play in the football fund, but none of them quite enough to want to plunge.

Arsenal look like they may play a few first teamers tonight and I'd give them something like a 65% chance of getting something from the game if that were true.

Luton are being written off by odds compilers understandably, yet Martin Ling today talked of how well they played despite being beaten by his team Orient. Bradford look on the rise against a team who have lost the plot. 7/4 on both is much longer than my ratings would have them.

I think I'll mix it up and spread the daily bet around a bit.

£500 Challenge

Arsenal £10 +0.5 at 1.7+

Luton £4 win at 7/4

Bradford £4 win at 7/4

Away win treble £2 at 20/1+

Monday 21 January

Challenge fund up to £815, about time this particular wave crashed!

Maybe tonight with my habitual betting against Liverpool. I usually only do this when they play away, and their home record should make anyone pause for thought. However I'd be happy getting 4/5 on Villa getting something from the match and we can get that with them getting a goal start, which is decent insurance.

£500 Challenge

Villa £20 at 4/5 or better, getting 1 goal start.

Sunday 20 January

Mahogany Blaze was a bit of a choker yesterday – although some people seemed to know that the front two would cut each others throats. Even I traded out some of my bet in-running and transferred it to Wee Robbie (this was some roadtest in dial-up speeds, and I hardly got value!). However it remains a luxury the challenge fund lacks.

I'll be interested in the size of the placepot at Wolverhampton today – being the only surviving meeting.

Other than that I think I'll escape the Shropshire rain and sit supine in front of bad sport wishing I had something a bit more amenable to in-running betting than dial-up internet!

Everton will carry the weight of the challenge money today. I think they are just about still under-rated and the market looks to be slightly overplaying the loss of their African players, and a supposed improvement in Wigan under Bruce. It could be a bit like the Bolton game last night though, especially in bad weather so we'll keep the bore draw onside.

£500 challenge

Everton £17.50 at 11/8

0-0 £2.50 at 9/1

Saturday 19th January

As expected BT Broadband have cocked up yet again, so no broadband until next week. So I'll be short this morning and just give you the challenge bets.

Ascot 2:20 looks a straightforward match to me and I wouldn't like to call it. That makes Mahogany Blaze a no-brainer bet at the prices this morning.

In football, I like Darlington to beat Mansfield at 5/4 but that price has gone this morning, so instead we'll go for a piece of the Newcastle madness.

As a Fulham fan it's obvious I've a soft spot for Keegan. But the market this morning is ridiculous. I can't get Bolton's price close to the bookies no matter how I try.

£500 Challenge

£20 win Mahogany Blaze 9/4

£20 Bolton at 5/4 getting half a goal start.

Monday 14th January

This is the week I try to move Sky and Broadband from the flat to the house. Given that's taken three weeks the last two times I tried it, this should be as frustrating as ever. My postings on here are likely to be accordingly sporadic.

A coupe of decent novice chases at Fekenham this afternoon. Helen Wood looks to have some fair competition so I'll stick to the first of them, and chance Cathedral Rock improving for the step up in trip. He looked as though he had a quiet introduction last time, and this opposition isn't strong. Harringay is now 0-7 in novice chases for example. He's being backed this morning but 7/4 or better is fine.

The £500 Challenge

Cathedral Rock £20 win at 7/4+

Saturday 12th January

I won't be able to play during the day today, so have had to play early.

Warwick 1:25

Verasi 6/4

Old Benny 6/4

Interesting prices in this match, or rather re-match. Regulars will know I'm a Verasi fan and having been unlucky for us at Exeter he atoned at Lingfield. The ground is perfect. The money is all for Old Benny though and it is easy to see why. He has the weight turnaround for his debut chase, his trainer is unafraid to reoppose, and is 70% with novice chasers at the track. All of that doesn't mean to me Verasi should be a 2/1 shot and I think the market's over-reacting. I'm on.

Warwick 2:30

Trust Fund 11/2

Arnold Layne 11/2

High Chies 11/2

Not Left Yet 7/1

Kilbeggan Blade 9/1

Blue Splash 9/1

Sixo 11/1

Naunton Brook 20/1

Trust Fund amazingly weak this morning. He was very well backed at Newbury so that's interesting. Arnold Layne priced on McCoy as much as anything and there does look to be a lot of pace in the race, which has to be a worry for some of these in this ground. High Chimes looks the obvious one, as an unexposed stayer – and this plod through the mud should be ideal. Of the rest Kilbeggan Blade looked better than just a plodder at Sandown, has paid the price for that, this will suit but topweight a worry. Blue Splash's jumping went to pot at Cheletnham and maybe the class rise did for him – the fences here come thick and fast. Nauton Brook could get into a rhythm but remains badly weighted and won't be gifted a lead. Not Left Yet and Sixo are typical Pipe grit in the vaseline jar. All in all a tricky race.

Warwick 3:00

Souffleur Evens

Nenuphar Collonges 9/4

A match similar to the Verasi race. Nenuphar Collonges has already beaten Souffleur. However the latter won in good style last weekend and the trainer has called the Cheltenham race an aberration. That race was run on terrible ground, which suited Nenuphar Collonges much more. However, the same looks to be true today. This time we have Alan King on-side and he's being backed this morning.

What's the betting the wrong King horses win! Still, I'll play the treble and for the challenge:

£500 Challenge

Verasi £20 win at 2/1

Nenuphar Collonges £20 win at 3/1

Friday 11th January

Removals van coming early. My 4th move within 8 months. Heartily sick of it. No bets.

Thursday 10th January

Hereford the place for the novice chase today.

Missis Potts should go well off bottom-weight; Overstrand showed a glimmer of life last time and should be better suited to going back right handed here; Robin de Sherwood is weak this morning but Nicholls has his usual top record at the track. All of which leaves Battlecry with a lot to do. He's giving weight all round and each drop of rain diminishes his chances. He was the only horse to give Hobbs Hill a race last time, and regulars know how highly I regard that one. Even so, I can't have him at better than 4/1 on my tissue. Rather than back Missis Potts first time out, I'll take the more cautious option of laying Battlecry. Greed is nudging me towards a place lay but for challenge purposes let's tread softly.

£500 Challenge

Lay Battlecry to lose £20 at 3/1

I've been looking at the evening placepots and am convinced there's a real opportunity here. The single evening AW meeting Weds, Thurs and Friday are attracting pools over 100K. As the tracks are deserted this must be betting shop punters – doing small interest perms or 64 line x 10p type perms. I understand the mentality of these punters and don't find it hard to see how we can overcome the 27% deductions in winning when they lose. Even the meetings with no runners (like Wolverhampton yesterday and tonight) are potentially playable given the tendency of betting shop placepotters to load the first and second faves in 5,6,7 runner races. I intend to play for the duration of the all weather season as my new research project.

Old mucker Slipperytoad also has an idea about the chaotic nature of some of these races, and we may be able to get some synergy going from our two approaches. I'll let you know how we get on, and draw up some rules based on research, but in the meantime it's definitely worth checking out..

Wednesday 9th January

Was interested in Modicum today. 2/1 on probably fair for a horse that's come second in arguably the best two novice chases run in the north this season. And I envisage the Rose Davison knockers being happy to oppose at such a short price – wouldn't be surprised to see 4/6 if there's any money at all for one of the debutants.

However, the weather at Musselburgh gives pause for thought. Water on the bends and still blowing a gale. Quite apart from likely non runners Modicum wouldn't want it to be a slog. So a watching brief for now.

That left me with the football, but my ratings don't help me get an accurate enough picture on the strength of Arsenal's kids, and I tend to avoid the big derbies generally.

I had a rather bad last minute to the Chelsea game last night. (I was going to back Chelsea to win, changed my mind late on and went for Under 2.5 goals, and was just about to close that bet when Chelsea scored the 3^rd!). Just the sort of 'bad beat' that I'd rather avoid over the next few weeks.

So, not hard for me to leave the daily challenge alone today.

Tuesday 8th January

Moving house (yet again) is going to mess up my rhythm (yet again). It should take a couple of weeks to sort out the move properly so there may be intermittent postings until then, and if I feel I have lost my way then the only sensible thing is to cease trading until I'm more settled in the new house.

The signs may be there in this rushed decision.

Jack The Giant looks too short for the big race at Leicester. Nothing against the horse, and the oppostion are horses I usually oppose. However, there's no guarantee that this trip will suit Jack – especially at Leicester. And he won't be helped by any rain, nor if Iron Man decides to take him on from the start. Add that to the trend that he's best on his first two starts and you have sufficient doubts to build a case against an odds-on shot.

£500 Challenge

Lay Jack The Giant to lose £20 at 1.75 or shorter.

Monday 7th january

A lovely walk in little Switzerland today. I realise I'm biased being a reluctant but self-imposed exile here, but Shropshire really is England's hidden secret. That said those hills have put me off a walking holiday in "big" Switzerland.

Missed out on Kruguyrova and so she'll remain a troublesome horse! She's definititely decent though. Well done Stoke.

I have to baby-sit the carpet fitters at our new house Monday - so no bets.

Sunday 6th January

I was all prepared to back Stoke today for the challenge, but since I did the ratings on Thursday I've been increasingly uneasy about the bet. It is based on my ratings but I'm not sure how well they correlate across divisions (which is why I usually give cup games the swerve).

I would have wimped out and gone for Kruguyrova instead. However, I fear she is going to be one of those horses I always get wrong. We backed against her first time up when she won and were with her when she lost. I don't think I want to continue that in a match bet too.

Instead I'll go for a walk on a beautiful day – up what my wife calls “little Switzerland”. These Salopians are so cosmoplitan!

So Stoke it is – but let's keep the draw on side.

£500 Challenge

Stoke £20 Asians +0.5 at 1.75

Saturday January 5th

An uninspiring day. I need to be careful, especially if the rains come.

Sandown 2:05

Howle Hill 5/2

Master Minded 9/2

All Star 11/2

Jericho 111 10/1

I was tempted to put up Howle Hill as the challenge bet, but worries that the ground may turn heavy puts me off. A watching brief. Jericho 111 has no headgear, but could get own way in front – and is a big price on a course that favours horses that can get into a rhythm. Potentially a back to lay.

Tolworth Hurdle – Musing on possibly opposing the front three in the market and hoping for an upset. Probably just watch.

Sandown 3:45

Principe Azzurro 5/1

Erics Charm 6/1

Limited Edition 6/1

Crystal Dainay 7/1

Aztec Warrior 10/1

Patricksnineteenth 10/1

Principe is a horse in and out of my imaginary stable. After the last race when he was given a ridiculously quiet ride I thought he may be aimed for a big festival handicap. I can't see how winning here will help. Caution. Crystal Dainay looks a big price in comparison to Erics Charm, who could have company for the lead from Florida Dream.

Chepstow 12:50

Sobers 7/4

french Saluaie 2/1

Oscar Dangron 7/2

OD now 0-14 over fences, and this is French Saluaie's first try. Sobers was running a good race at a course that wouldn't really suit (wincanton), and these conditions should be ideal. He's the one for today's challenge bet.

£500 Challenge

Sobers £20 win at 2/1

Friday January 4th

Duc de Regniere looks to gain some experience today. We can easily afford to miss this, and my racing fund will sit it out unless he drifts. However, I've found I've quite liked the discipline of turning the challenge into a 'daily bet'.

£500 Challenge

Duc De Regniere £20 win at 1/3+ (2/5 available if betfred allows you a bet!)

Thursday 3rd January

Fontwell 2:20.

Mighty Matters is in my imaginary stable – he was feeling pretty lonely with just Hobbs Hill for comapany, but Celestial Halo and Khyber Kim joined him over the weekend!

Topweight against a couple of improvers is a worry, as is the prospect of snow getting into the ground. On the other hand I priced him up at 7/4, (Souwester could well bounce).

£500 Challenge

Mighty Matters £20 at 5/2

Wednesday 2nd January

Let's review the challenge so far.

Current Standing £697

Football – 27 bets/15 wins 146%

Racing - 85 bets/36 wins 112%

Total - 121 bets/55 wins 111%

As with my other funds, for the first time the football bets are outperforming all other bets. Whilst this is pleasing I rather need to get the racing bets back on track. On reflection, now that the fund has been running for a while I see that I am understaking. This takes into consideration the higher strike-rate/shorter odds and the fact that I'm only playing level stakes. Also, whereas (see frame opposite) I was going to bet on three levels I have only bet on the minimum level since turning the challenge into a daily nap bet.

I think the bet level should probably be £25 currently. However, the past has taught me big jumps like that are nearly always a disaster so I'll split the difference and pray it doesn't coincide with a losing streak. We're a bit behind target towards April, but after the travails of the summer I can live with that.

So, let's kick off the new year.

The racing looks tricky with Jean Le Poisson and Air Force One both odds on and yet with doubts about them. So, let's go with Bolton. The price is probably only just fair but the way they dispatched Wigan and Birmingham should be enough to see off Derby, who it is true have started scoring but were gutless against Blackburn on Saturday.

£500 Challenge
Bolton £18.50 win at 8/15
0-0 £1.50 at 12/1