Update

Altogether now:

"Oh, didn't we have a loverly time the time we moved to Shropshire."

You may have wondered where I have been this Ascot. Tuesday night we were flooded out of our rented house in sunny Shifnal. The first time the place had flooded in living memory and a mere 7 weeks after we've moved in!

The house is uninhabitable and I type this from a hotel in Telford - dreaded memories of a businessman's life.

I should be back on-line now - but bear with me.

June 19th Royal Ascot and £500 Challenge

Ascot 3:05
Miss Andretti 4/1
Takeover Target 11/2
Benbaun 16/1
Bentleys Biscuit 16/1
Dandy Man 16/1
Desert Lord 16/1
Magnus 16/1
Moss Vale 16/1
Pivotal Point 16/1
Tax Free 16/1
Beauty is Truth 16/1
Enticing 16/1

Unconvincing tissue, but let's face it our lot are all much of a muchness. Whichever one gets conditions and pace to suit can outperform. The Aussies have this at their mercy. Takeover Target already has the T-shirt but by all accounts can't live with Miss Andretti. We'll see. This looks too short for Bentley's Biscuit with no obvious blitzkrieg pace to bring the pacesetters back. For a tickle how about Pivotal Point to repeat last year's placing at around 12/1 or better.


Ascot 3:45
Cockney Rebel 5/4
Dutch Art 7/2
Excellent Art 7/1
Astronomer Royal 12/1
Creachadoir 16/1

Cockney Rebel owes me nothing. All the talk of Dutch Art being unlucky in the Guineas may just provide a decent price on the actual winner, and that'll do for me.


Ascot 4:20
George Washington 6/4
Cesare 4/1
Red Evie 9/2
Ramonti 7/1
Jeremy 20/1

I've been following Cesare a while now and have had this in mind as the big step-up. George Washington is one I'm prepared to take on. I'd just play Cesare each way at great odds in a dead eight field, but Red Evie muddies the waters, not least Jamie Spencer's loyalty. I'll play both in my racing fund but do Cesare each way in the challenge.


£500 Challenge
Cesare £7.50 ew at 5/1

Running Total
£615.74

Sunday 17th June

Salisbury 3:30
Prime Defender 7/4
Sakhees Secret 9/4
Ashdown Express 9/1
Presto Shinko 9/1

After yesterday, Prime Defender's defeat of Ho Mike is looking pretty good. The ground suits at the moment as well, but surely some rain will come today - good to firm looks remarkable. At the prices I'm inclined to back the other improving 3 year old - Sakhees Secret at 11/4 or better.


Folkestone 3:20
Cape 5/4
Keyaki 6/1
Maltese Falcon 11/1
Idle Power 11/1

Doubts about most of these. And the two solid ones niggle. Cape let us down the other week, and with Urbina up is short enough for a hold-up horse drawn 1. Keyaki will do well to make all in a higher grade from a wide draw. I'll play my other two for an unlikely upset. Maltese Falcon and Idle Power at weak 20+ prices on Betfair.

Racing Sat 16th June and £500 challenge

Sandown 2:25
Partners in Jazz 7/2
Jamieson Gold 12/1
MacNairobi 12/1
Wavertree Warrior 8/1

I can't get excited about this, but on prices Wavertree Warrior has to be worth chancing to repeat last year's success. I can see Partners in Jazz drifting and is probably solid enough to suggest a saver+.


Sandown 3:35
Contest 6/4
Hoh Mike 9/4
City of Tribes 9/1
Sirens Gift 9/1

A chance City of Tribes could make all off a soft pace but he seems to have been ridden with restraint of late. The angle into the race is Hoh Mike's tendency to dwell at the stalls. Expecting him to be left behind over the 5f makes Contest a real good bet.



£500 Challenge

Contest £15 win at 13/8

Running Total (golf outstanding)
£630.74

Racing 14th June and £500 challenge

Newbury 3:50
Treat 4/6

Whatever way I read this race I'm left with Treat. 4/5 looks very fair. Granted these are 3 year old fillies and the hard rains a-falling. Still I'll play. Who knows she may even drift as everyone looks for an each way poke. Let's throw her in the £500 challenge as well.


GOLF
I'm taken with the winning score market. The golfers are doing their normal US Open "it's a monster" quotes. But I think the powers that be will be looking for atonement for last year's criticisms and suggest they would like to see Level par or a shade under. As pin positions and rain will decide it I think I'll avoid all the hype and play the prices.


£500 Challenge

Treat £15 win at 4/5

Winning score 280 or lower £5 at 4/1
Winning score 281-284 £10 at 9/4

Running Total
£660.74

US Open - Golf

For interest, the portfolio is as follows:

Jeev Singh (!) each way top rest of the world (w/out South Africans) 100/1
Stenson top European 10/1
Zach Johnson top US w/out Woods 14/1
Immelman top rest of world 20/1

Racing - Tues 12th June

Redcar 4:30
Soccerjackpot 2/1
Nanton 6/1
Will He Wish 7/1
Shy Glance 9/1

Not one to get heavily involved in, but a no brainer on tissue alone. I'll try and get the fave beaten by the other three.


Chester 7:45
H Harrison 4/1
Giganticus 11/2
Presumptive 9/1
Phluke 9/1
Roman Maze 9/1
Gallantry 9/1
Malcheek 20/1
Hiccups 20/1

One of those sketch tissues that does itself and needs no tweaking as the race is plainly a typical Chester 7f hit and hope not worthy of close attention. Besides, the tissue already closely matches the market. Gallantry is the only horse that stands out as a rick (mine no doubt). I've taken the little the Tote have allowed me each way at 20s and will probably top that up but with little hope. I expect I'll put him and the two favourites in the jackpot which is worth chasing but will probably be rolled over again.

Racing 11th June

That was a tough weekend. I was due a bad one. However, the racing fund remains in profit for the season so I need to take it on the chin and keep it in context so as to remain on an even keel ahead of Ascot this week.

Pontefract 8:15
Expensive 6/4
Mont Etoile 6/4
Home Sweet Home 8/1

Intriguing match up between an exposed listed class performer carrying a penalty and an apparently far better filly running first time out over a trip much shorter than looks ideal. Potential for market over-reactions here and I'll keep a watching brief.

Racing Saturday 10th June and £500 Challenge

Haydock 2:35
No tissue - River Alhaarth actually the only horse I short-listed, plus half-eyed looks at Kashtari and Winged D'argent. I'll back River Alhaarth at 2s and probably "save" on those two at 25/1 plus.


Haydock 3:10
Again no tissue - but can't really see beyond Paradise Isle here and 15/8 is perfectly fair.


Haydock 4:10
Genari 7/2
Prince Evelith 7/2
Lazy Darren 7/2
Harare 9/1

Tight little handicap. Genari's return to form may be overstated, Prince Evelith is first time out Lazy Darren a three year old, and Harare possibly ungenuine. And those are the ones on the shortlist! I'll play the prices early with Lazy Darren backable at 9/2.


Goodwood 2:20
Cape 4/1
Utmost Respect 13/2
Bentong 10/1
Greenslades 10/1
Viking Spirit 10/1

The two unexposed, first time out, horses head the market and make it no-bet sort of race.


Goodwood 2:50
Munsef Evens
Summers Eve 4/1
Akarem 5/1
High Heel Sneakers 6/1

Corals very short on Munsef but I can't help but want to oppose him at odds-on - not least in first time blinkers. He's probably a straight lay but my eye keeps getting drawn to the lowest rated, Summers Eve so she'll carry the money.


Goodwood 3:25
Army of Angels 9/4
Supersonic Dave 3/1
Nayyir 6/1
Dunelight 6/1
Vanderlin 6/1

Worried about ground for Army. That was a good performance from Supersonic Dave behind Lucarno but you have to worry about the trainerform, and there are three others who could spoil the party. Usually a race I'd like to get stuck into, I'm left watching so far.


Musslburgh 3:15
Alfie Flits Evens
Balkan Knight 7/4
Golden Quest 9/1

Strange race - both the front two are going to be very vulnerable if there is no pace as looks likely. Hard to make a case for any of the others to benefit though. No bet.


Musselburgh 3:45
The Tatling 8/1
Bond City 12/1
Celtic Mill 12/1
River Falcon 12/1
Magic Glade 12/1
handsome Cross 12/1
Bluebok 12/1
Aegean dancer 12/1

You can see from my tissue how open this is. I'll probably play some of the 12/1 shots at 20/1+ and hope. Plus a play on a Bradley 1,2.


Windsor 4:05
Gulf Express 5/4
Cool Box 9/2
Humungous 11/1
Wavertree Warrior 11/1

Looks a match. I couldn't help but notice Cool Box was fave last time they met. I don't think he should be frightened to re-oppose and given the prices I feel compelled to back Cool Box. If I could get a decent bet on each way at 6s I would.


£500 Challenge
It's a strange day. Poorish racing and I have a few I can back but not ones I'd want to thump out the ground. The challenge has had a very quiet week so my idea is to "press up" on the five horses I've backed this morning in doubles and accumulator for the equivalent of one bet. There's every chance of a blank day though.

Hay 2:35 River Alhaarth
Gdwd 2:50 Summers Eve
Hay 3:10 Paradise Isle
Wind 4:05 Cool Box
Hay 4:10 Lazy Darren
10 x £1.40 win doubles
1x£1 accumulator


Running total
£675.74

Thurs June 7th - Racing

Haydock 4:25
Soldiers Tale Evens
Early March 7/1
New Seeker 7/1
Jedburgh 11/1
Quito 20/1
Suggestive 20/1

Looks like Soldiers Tale only problem will be the going. Early March could have been credible but is weak to dead this morning, so I guess needs the run. New Seeker needs to grab the rail and get a soft lead, both of which look highly unlikely and the rest need to find form from somewhere. I think I'll take an early saver on Early March and then hope for a ground-based drift on Soldiers Tale late on.


Sandown 7:55
Hassaad 2/1
Full Victory 6/1
Killena Boy 9/1
The Snatcher 20/1
General Knowledge 20/1

Looks pretty easy for Hassaad to atone for Zetland screw-up on his way to the Hunt Cup. He's no price though in a 15 runner handicap, no matter how uncompetitive I have it. I'm a bigger fan of Richard Hills than most but even I can see him getting into trouble again here. If it does all go wrong the two recent course winners could be the ones to take advantage. A watching brief for me.


£500 Challenge
Federer and Nadal are through to the semis and long 0dds-on each to reach the final. If you wanted to protect your winnings you could take out a little insurance by backing their opponents in the semis. £2 Davydenko at 6/1 and £1.50 Djokovic at 9/1 would change your 6/5 bet into (broadly) a freeish bet at Evens. I've done this personally - but for challenge purposes will count the bet as it is.

6th June - Racing and Football

Nottingham 4:10
Hinterland 9/4
Shumookh 9/4
Charlie Cool 6/1

Looks a match between the front two - the Godolphin horse has been in the doldrums, and Shumookh could get a soft lead. So considerably keener on the latter than the former. Will watch the market for now however.


Kempton 7:40
Intrepid jack 3/1
Rowe Park 6/1
Barons Pit 6/1
Border Music 7/1
Empress Jain 7/1
Playful 20/1
Elhamri 20/1

Those drawn on the rail could cut each other's throats here and allow something to come wide and late. Rowe Park did us proud last time so I will stick with him for at least a point or two even though well up in class and poorly drawn here.




Euro 2008
A couple of matches for my nascent international ratings. I backed Russia to win our group some time ago so the Croatia bet can be seen as a part hedge.

Croatia beat Russia at Evens or better
Kazakhstan beat Azerbaijan at 13/10 or better




None of these close to qualifying for £500 challenge.

Racing 5th June, and other stuff, and £500 challenge

Ripon 3:30
My Gacho 4/1
Charles Darwin 5/1
Steel Blue 6/1
Trojan Flight 9/1
Lake Chini 9/1
Desert Commander 10/1
Yorkshire Blue 16/1

Some disappointing types here. The one that I do like at the prices is Charles Darwin. He likes small fields and looks to be coming to hand based on his latest run. He should be able to race prominently here and hopefully plenty of these will fail to get competitive. With only nine runners the place odds look decent, so an each way bet for me.


Golf: Austrian Open
I seem to have stopped putting hopeless golfers up on here, so you can guess I had another losing run. Still, that came to an end with Sterne on Sunday and my golf partner had Dredge as well, and we were back with a vengeance! So I may as well throw down our four against the field - all each way.

Kaymer 25/1 (the up and coming kid has put together 6 good tournaments in a row now and this is suitably week for him to make a further breakthrough)

Vibe-hastrup 66/1 (placed his last twice and must be over-priced, based on few people having heard of him and fewer still able to spell his name!)

My colleague adds Soren Hansen 50/1 (we like to have a Scandinavian on our team and this one's as close to a course specialist as there is)

and Matthew Zions 125/1 (on the basis it would be good to have a good local lad, until I pointed out AUT meant Australian, not Austrian!) I think he takes the intuitive approach to extremes sometimes (though he's still out-pointing me and my pseudo scientific ratings-based approach).



Tennis:
I'm going to back Chakvetadze today to beat Sharapova at 15/8 or better. The latter is hopelessly one dimensional and she gets really found out on clay. That said, she's also rock solid when it comes to fighting (or cheating) her way to a win, a great asset when so many of the women are so flakey. So, I'll be looking to trade out at some point.


£500 Challenge
I topped up on Borderlescott last night within my own three star fund, something the £500 challenge fund did well to avoid. Today I think the challenge can go for Charles Darwin. I think my own three star fund may concentrate primarily on the place odds, but as I know some of you following this are not betfair players I'll stick to each way for on here.

Charles Darwin £7.50 ew at 15/2 (7/1 OK)

Running Total
£657.74
(Federer/Nadal final still running)

Racing - Monday 4th June

Windsor 8:00
Borderlescott 13/8
Baltic King 9/2
Bygone Days 7/1
Assertive 7/1
Balthazars Gift 10/1
Fayr Jag 16/1

It's not exactly original but Borderlescott looks rock solid here. All being well he could get a soft lead, judged perfectly by Seb Sanders and have too much late on for horses with doubts about them. Bygone Days has to carry a penalty on ground quick enough for him; Assertive probably better at 7f or a stiffer 6f; Baltic King likes the course and has won this race but needs a fast pace and that looks unlikely; and Balthazar's Gift would need to show some form though I can see him spoiling the party. I'm hoping for 7/4. (That's actually available now with Betfred but he doesn't let me play!)

Very close to a £500 challenge bet, but as the price isn't available we'll have to skip.

Racing - Saturday 2nd June

The Derby - Epsom 4:20
Authorised 6/4
Archipenko 7/1
Aqaaleem 11/1
Lucarno 11/1
Eagle Mountain 11/1
Admiralofthefleet 33/1
Mahler 33/1
Regime 33/1
Salford Mill 33/1
Soldier of Fortune 33/1
Strategic Prince 33/1
Yellowstone 33/1

Authorised is solid but, let's face it, he's a rotten price. The bookies may be all talk about losing millions if Frankie wins but the truth is they're delighted to be able to lay this at odds on. There must be some juice against him this morning.

My ante post book includes Aqaleem at 100/1, Archipenko at 30+, Lucarno at 33s, Eagle Mountain at 20s and Yellowstone at 160s, so I don't feel the need to go diving in again. As I've talked up both Aqaleem and Archipenko on here and recommended them before their trials I hope some of you are similarly positioned. Not that it will matter much once Frankie wins and we have to endure the BBC's sentimental guff!

If you're coming fresh to the race this morning I'd go for Archipenko at 9s or better. Lucarno stands out on my tissue though so add him as a saver each way.


Epsom 3:00
Blue Ksar Evens
Blythe Knight 9/2
Welsh Emperor 9/2
King Jock 9/1

Another Frankie odds-on shot probably worth opposing. Blythe Knight may just be an improved horse this year but prior to now has always needed a strong pace to show his best.

Welsh Emperor could have his ideal conditions if granted a soft lead. With one rather massive caveat - whether he will get the mile. "Never bet on a horse to do something it's never done before" is a very sensible racing adage. You sometimes get a price that compensates for the doubts though and I think that's the case here. If he doesn't get a soft lead, or gets his fractions wrong, or just doesn't stay, we're sunk, but at the 9s available this morning I'm happy to take a chance. If he does get to the furlong pole in the lead I'm all for laying off the stake at least in-running.



The rest of the card is almost impossible, so I won't bother with tissues. And no £500 Challenge bet today I'm afraid.

Racing June 1st - and £500 Challenge

Epsom 1:40
Echelon 3/1
Nannina 3/1
Bahia Breeze 4/1
Puggy 9/1
Harvest Dream 11/1
Apply Dapply 12/1
Edaara 20/1

Not exactly in love with my tissue here. The going will decide Nannina's price and some of the others look distinctly dodgy. Still it has drawn me into a bet on a 75 rated filly - probably because I rather like the name (there was a golfer by the name of Brandell Chamblee who cost me a fortune over the years but I did enjoy saying his name out loud over and over whilst searching for his name amongst those who had missed the cut again). Apply Dapply ew at 50/1


Epsom 2:10
Ordnance Row 5/1
Rio Riva 7/1
Unshakable 7/1
Plum Pudding 11/1
Prince of Thebes 16/1
Wavertree Warrior 16/1
Montepellier 16/1
Futures Dream 16/1
Rain Stops Play 16/1

I've backed Rio Riva the last twice so I guess today's going to be the day. Looks tricky to me and just the sort of race I'm avoiding with some success so far this season.


Epsom 2:45
Stotsfold 9/2
Forroger 9/2
Tabadul 6/1
Lake Poet 7/1
John Terry 11/1

Not much strength in depth here. Stotsfold will need to settle better than at Chester and Forroger is well up in class. There's doubts about both Tabadul and Lake Poet but they both ran really well over course last time. Here Lake Poet could steal a race with no obvious pace and Tabadul has a better draw this time. I think I'll take them both against the faves and throw in a hopeful forecast as well.


Epsom 3:25
Sixties Icon 6/4
Septimus 4/1
Sir Percy 4/1
Scorpion 10/1
Maraahel 10/1

I think Sixties Icon is solid here and am happy to back him at 13/8. At 7/4 he would have made it into the £500 Challenge. I'm not at all keen on Sir Percy or Scorpion and have Septimus as the most likely spoiler.


Epsom 4:05
Passage of Time 9/4
Four Sins 5/1
Dalvina 9/1
Light Shift 9/1
All My Loving 11/1
Measured Tempo 12/1
Kayah 20/1
Dance of Light 25/1

Passage of Time does have one drawback - Dickie Hughes. That apart, Four Sins has been building up in my hopes for a while now. I'm on at 25s (which is better than my Dalvina ante post punt at umm 7s!), and have gone in again at 8s, as well as in each way doubles with Archipenko. So it's probably a one-eyed tissue, but as long as the ground is no worse than good to soft, I'm prety hopeful. She's the obvious one for the £500 Challenge, and each way would suit that fund's objectives nicely.


£500 Challenge
Four Sins £7.50 ew at 8/1

Running Total
£672.74

Racing - Thursday 31 May

Sandown 7:15
Mashaahad 3/1
Tam Lin 4/1
Pinpoint 4/1
Papal Bull 13/2
Mighty 7/1

Market looks to have this right - I can't find an angle in at the moment.


Sandown 8:20
Red Clubs 3/1
Firenze 7/2
Moss Vale 6/1
Sierra Vista 6/1
Wi Dud 10/1
The Trader 10/1

Not much here either. With the dead eight double figures each way about The Trader may be tempting, particularly if I could find another decent ew chance somewhere else.

Racing - Tues 29th May

Sandown, of course, used to be my local track. I haven't missed much about leaving London so far, but it would be good to be there tonight.

Sandown 6:40
Queens Best 5/2
Ace of Hearts 4/1
Killena Boy 5/1
Presumptive 6/1
Adventuress 7/1
Invention 20/1

Need to be careful about non runners and the exact going. The going is a worry for Ace of Hearts, plus his long losing run. That said he's dropped to a very tempting mark and a smaller field should be the making of him. I was hoping for some each way action tonight, but non runners have scuppered that. Watching brief.


Sandown 7:15
Charlie Farnsbarns 1/2
Fishforcompliments 8/1
Jo'Burg 8/1
Massive 8/1

A penalty kick. Not particularly a betting proposition unless there's some drift though.


Sandown 7:50
Mount Kilimanjaro 9/4
Tungsten Strike 9/4
Balkan Knight 9/1
Allegretto 9/1
Under the Rainbow 9/1
Bulwark 20/1
Land N Stars 20/1

Plenty will read Mount Kilimanjaro's win last time as a weak one off a slow pace. Maybe, but I'd be as happy to see the horse as a typical Dunlop improver for a trip. Most the others are completely exposed and it comes down to conditions and whether they are on going days. I'm happy to bet Mount Kilimanjaro against them.

Racing - May 28th

Redcar 3:50
Dan Dare 4/1
Hassad 4/1
Benandonner 6/1
Chantaco 12/1
Flipando 16/1
Goodbye Mr Bond 16/1
European Dream 16/1
Bailieborough 16/1

Terrible racing even for a Bank Holiday. And with rain all around and non runners forecast you'd be mad to bet early. I'll give it a miss. For what it's worth my two against the field here at current prices are Dan Dare and Benandonner as long as they don't get caught in a speed duel with each other.

Tennis - May 27th and £500 challenge

Cockney Rebel did well for us yesterday and getting Mr Napper Tandy beaten helped also. The weather in Ireland makes tissue/tips pointless. I may have a swing at Pricewise's tip for fun.

The French Open tennis is upon us. I've promised myself to stay away from the women's betting. William Hills have a tempting offer though and I think I'll take advantage and also put it in the £500 Challenge.

£500 Challenge
Federer and Nadal to play each other in final
£15 at 6/5

Running Total £687.74

Horse Racing - May 26th and £500 Challenge

Too many non runners being declared at Haydock to put tissues up - waste of time.

Newmarket 2:20
Hearthstead Maison 7/4
Lucarno 7/2
Mythical Kid 9/2
Many Volumes 91
Monzante 11/1
Supersonic Dave 12/1

Hearthstead Maison beat two of these fair and square in the Lingfield Derby trial and has nothing to fear from them on a track that is going to suit him considerably more than Lingfield did. Lucarno is the danger but at the prices I'm happy to dive into Heathstead Maison, and in the process give Aqaleem's Derby hopes a small boost.


Newmarket 2:50
Mr Napper Tandy 6/4
Prince Forever 4/1
St Philip 4/1
Tariq 4/1

Mr Napper Tandy looks one to oppose to me. Not only trained by Channon but also a row of seconds to his name. His form behind Creachodoir reads well but the rest doesn't particularly. He could be a straight lay though you'd be better off trying to get the very best prices you can get about the three viable contenders. That's what I'll be doing anyway.


Curragh 3:45
Cockney Rebel Evens
Duke of Marmalade 5/1
Vital Equine 6/1
Creachadoir 9/1

I keep imagining what price Cockney Rebel would be if he was trained by O'Brien. Yes, Duke of Marmalade can improve (and I'm hoping Archipenko will come on for his first run so I shouldn't be dismissive here). But the overhead shots of Cockney Rebel winning the Guineas really are impressive and he shouldn't really fear those re-opposing. 11/8 looks big this morning and he could drift as well if the Irish follow their man.


£500 Challenge
£15 win Hearthstead Maison at 9/4
£15 win Cockney Rebel at 11/8 or bigger

Running Total
£682.12

Racing - May 25th

Goodwood 2:35
Into the Dark 5/2
Illustrious Blue 4/1
Road to Love 6/1
Hard Top 6/1
Imperial Star 10/1

A real shame there's not 8 here - an ew bet on Illustrious Blue would have been unavoidable given his course form. I still have it between him and the Godolphin horse. Road To Love may bounce back but isn't backable on this year's form; Hard Top probably needs further or a bigger field, and Imperial Star's body seems to creak like mine after a game of tennis, plus he's got a penalty. I'll let the market decide which way I go here.


Goodwood 3:10
Rowe Park 5/1
Loch Verdi 5/1
Classic Encounter 8/1
The Lord 8/1
Magic Glade 8/1
Bluebok 8/1
Texas Gold 20/1

Surprised at how weak Rowe Park is. Loch Verdi looks an obvious improver given the relations, but this is first time out. The rest are all exposed although The Lord may be coming into form based on last year. There is a lot of early pace and if the going eases they could fall in a heap - Keniry will need the gaps but it would suit him (or indeed Texas Gold were he in any form first time out). I think I'll stick to my prices and play Rowe Park - certainly not a £500 challenge horse though.

Racing - 24th May

Still struggling to find much action this week.

Goodwood 2:35
Eastern Anthem 1/2
Halicarnassus 4/1

Eastern Anthem ran Ok first time out. It's remarkable given the stable jockey that you would have made a considerable profit over the years backing Godolphin horses blind, and I've never been keen to oppose them. Particuarly not at their favourite track, up against a Channon horse carrying a penalty. We'll have to wait on the market to see whether he's a backable proposition.


Goodwood 3:10
Sudoor 9/4
Bicoastal 9/4
Cosmodrome 10/1
So Sweet 10/1
Les fazzani 16/1
Lost In Wonder 16/1

Bicoastal looks opposable at the price - despite his classic race form. The distance in particular is a worry for one so short. Finding something to beat her isn't straightforward though - not least given Sudoor's penalty. There may be each way options given the dead eight - my eye keeps getting drawn to Les Fazzani who could improve for this step up in trip and Cosmodrome who could possibly find the stones he needs to. Watching brief.

I may have to widen my scope to get some turnover going and play Bangor (can't remember doing that before!) and some of the trappy races at Goodwood - Cabinet looks a legitimate fave in the first. This usually proves a big mistake though, so I may settle for the golf and the alpine stage of the Giro D'Italia!

23 May - Champions League/BMW Golf

Sill no £500 Challenge bets this week, which puts the blather below in perspective!

Champions League.
I run a "betleague" competition with some mates purely for fun. Everyone seems to have gone for AC Milan to win this outright (rather than in the 90 minutes). It's strange when everyone takes a close match and are completely one-sided about the outcome. It makes a contrarian like me look the other way. That said, my original feelings formed part of the consensus.

I think three things are probably at play in this group think.

(1) We see Liverpool more as an under achieving Premiership side than as a European force these days. As such we look at the line up and think - 'Peter Crouch - Champions League winner - nah'.

(2) The demolition of Man Utd has hyped Milan's ability somewhat.

(3) We think Liverpool were essentially lucky last time and tonight will be karmic revenge.

For all that my personal feeling is Milan are the side most likely to be able to win over 90 minutes, but the longer it stays level the more Liverpool take the ascendancy - in fact I'd have one eye on penalties right from the start if I was them. So, I'll be backing Milan (say 4 points) to win in 90 minutes at around 11/8 and backing Liverpool (say 1 point) to win on penalties at 10/1.



BMW Golf

I'll throw a few darts at this one, and if I'm stuck in all weekend will probably trade in-running.

The front runners are at best only fairly priced: Els has a feeble record in this on his home track; Vijay, Goosen, Stenson and Donald also have mediocre records; Harrington supposedly hates it here despite playing well and must be drained from last week; Casey and Rose have been off injured; and Olazabal, Cabrera, Montgomerie and Jiminez all look as though their big winning days are behind them.

So the finger stops at:

Karlsson - showing some form and underbet on my ratings (should be 25/1).
I'll go ew at 40/1 and also to be top Scandanavian at 13/2

Dredge and Jacquelin are the form guys on the tour and with so many doubts about the front runners 50/1 each way looks fair, especially anyone playing 6 places.

And of course I'll continue to squander past winnings on Jeev Singh at 125/1 despite his 96 or whatever it was last week!

Racing - 22nd May - Beverley

Beverley 3:50
Flipando 3/1
Jubilee Street 9/2
Langford 9/2
Daaweitza 9/2
Nevada Street 9/1

Actually went 4/1 each of four to start with, so easy to see that Flipando is my problem here. Nothing against the horse, just that he hardly ever wins and you'd have to say he was disappointing at Thirsk. Dutching the other three at around Evens to beat him is hardly inspiring but is probably where I'll end up!

Racing - Sunday 20th May

Ripon 3:40
Rio Riva 13/8
My Paris 5/2
St Andrews 20/1
European Dream 20/1

I followed Rio Riva over the cliff in the Lincoln. This could be compensation, noticeable that he keeps going up in the ratings for not winning though. If My Paris gets the run of the race he is still well handicapped to grab this prize too and Ryan offered him up as a tip in the week (not sure that's a good thing to be honest). However, the key to the race for me is that I don't like any of the others. If My Paris gets a soft lead he wins. If he gets caught in a duel, say with Granston, he sets it up for Rio Riva. 4/6 these two dutched looks fair to me. And I think you'll be able to get better if you're patient and pick off the market movements.

However, I'm going out for a walk instead of sitting at my laptop all day. So, I'll play early. Otherwise I'd have put it up as a £500 challenge bet. Which did well yesterday, so I'll put the running total up, just so we can enjoy looking at it!


£500 Challenge
Running Total
£682.12

Racing 19th May and £500 Challenge

Newbury 2:10
Day Flight 1/2
Peppertree Lane 6/1
Foreign Affairs 11/1
Group Captain 11/1

Unless the rains come and a gale blows up the track enabling Peppertree Lane to turn this into survival of the fittest, this looks all Day Flight's. Up to you to decide whether you'll play at 4/7!


Newbury 2:45
Peeress 2/1
Jeremy 9/2
Ramonti 5/1
Red Evie 6/1
Speciosa 12/1
Marcus Andronikus 20/1
Passager 20/1

I like Peeress a lot and this could hardly suit better. That said, Red Evie is priced strangely considering she beat Peeress (albeit a shade luckily and in receipt of weight for age) and barring her bad run at the end of the season is unbeaten. With the dead eight you can bet 7/4 a place for Red Evie on betfair, as opposed to 7/4 the win for Peeress. I can see Ramonti and Speciosa setting this up for the closers (it looked a long way home yesterday) and ruining their own chances in the process, thus enhancing Red Evie's place chances. I'll play each way at 9s with a small saver on the forecast. It's a little worrying that you can get the decent place terms on betfair, especially considering Victor Chandler would only allow me a tenner ew! Bell's horses aren't flying yet and that could maybe explain it, and be a worry.


Newbury 3:50
Zowington 9/2
Come Out Fighting 11/2
Ripples Maid 11/1
Gloved Hand 20/1
Dingaan 25/1

Zowington is in my virtual stable, ever since he nearly won at 120/1 two years ago. Last year, after winning nicely for me first time out, I followed him over the cliff every subsequent race, including coming third in a three way photo he looked to have won to the naked eye. I think today maybe the day to catch him, though the draw definitely tempers enthusiasm, and my tissue is almost certainly one-eyed.


£500 Challenge
£7 ew Red Evie at 9/1
£1 straight forecast Peeress bt Red Evie

Running Total
£607.52


If you're looking at the football scratching around for a bet on the football, how about both the FA Cup Final and the Champions League final being decided on penalties. Covering the combinations would provide around a 25/1 chance. I can't find much of an angle in either game otherwise so this will be my fun bet.

Racing - York friday 18 May

York 2:15
Ballinteni 6/1
Halla San 7/1
Bauer 7/1
Kilimandschero 9/1
All The Good 9/1
Nakheel 10/1
Macorville 10/1
Simondium 25/1
Kyoto Summit 25/1

My tissue is somewhat different to the bookies and it does provide two stand-out bets. Both are improving horses, but clearly no longer considered unexposed by either the handicapper or bookmakers. I'll chance that they've got a fair bit more to give. Ballinteni at 10s or better and Kilmandscharo at 20s or better - neither being backed this morning. I think I'll go win over each way, and probably throw in a cheeky forecast.


York 2:45
Sergeant Cecil 7/2
The Last Drop 11/2
Munsef 11/2
Allegretto 6/1
Percussionist 6/1
Geordieland 12/1
Rising Cross 12/1

Sergeant Cecil was responsible for most my flat profits two seasons ago, so to say I have a soft spot for him is an understatement. He pulled very hard in this last year in a small field. There may be more pace on today, but he does have a penalty to overcome and this is still probably seen as a prep for Ascot. Probably fairly priced but for sentimental betting only. Allegretto could be a typical Stoute improving filly and this may suit Munsef. It will be interesting to see if Kinane can get a better tune out of The Last Drop than Hills or whether it's the horse, not the jockey that's the problem.


York 4:25
Hoh Hoh Hoh 9/2
Buachail Dona 11/2
Kings Gait 7/1
Zomerlust 9/1
Wyatte Earp 9/1
Turnkey 20/1

Hoh Hoh Hoh has gone off too fast both starts so far. However, with a decent apprentice up, he looks the sole pace in this sprint on a track that suits front runners. Ridden sensibly he has everything in his favour. The 6s are going fast. A decent bet for me.


I toyed with the idea of adding Hoh Hoh Hoh to the £500 challenge, but as he is pretty likely to collapse in a heap like the last couple of times, there's no £500 challenge bet today.

Racing 17th May - York

York 1:45
Kay Two 5/1
Fire up the band 10/1
Corridor Creeper 12/1
Green park 12/1
Tournedos 16/1
Hogmaneigh 16/1
terentia 16/1
Cape Royal 16/1
Masta Plasta 16/1
Bigalos Bandit 16/1

Corridor Creeper had the race fall in his lap last time, and Kay Two was given far too prominent a role. Whatever the going over 5f at York they don't seem to come back and I can see this suiting Kay Two much more. Other trail-blazers will have their chances as usual, and Kay Twos draw wide tempers enthusiasm. I'm a player at 6/1 though.


York 2:15
Anna Pavlova 5/4
Echelon 4/1
Topatoo 5/1
Maroussies Wings 16/1
Portal 16/1
Summers Eve 16/1

Echelon may have idled in front last week - or the trip may have been at her limit. The going will make it even more of a test here and I think I'll play against her. Anna Pavlova looks rock solid against her anyway. Topatoo loves the track and will be fitter than her brave run last time. Looks a good bet to place in the dead eight. The £500 challenge will copy the bet I did in midweek. (See below)


York 2:45
Authorised Evens
Adagio 4/1
Proponent 11/2
Raincoat 11/2

Could do with Authorised flopping her so that our Derby portfolio flourishes! Looks solid though. I like the look of Raincoat at a price, he didn't beat anything at Epsom but looked the part. My Adagio Derby voucher was long since abandoned - be interesting to see if he can get back on track.


York 3:15
Wise Dennis 9/4
Very Wise 5/1
Pride of Nation 6/1
Zero Tolerance 7/1
Blythe Knight 11/1

This looks quite a bit less competitive than the Victoria Cup and Wise Dennis only needs to repeat that form to score here. Which makes all the favourites today look fairly priced. At York in the mud - mmm I doubt it!


£500 Challenge
A small increase in stake size now we are over £600. If this loses and we fall below, back down goes the stake!

Anna Pavlova £6 at 5/4
Topatoo £8 place at 4/6 (betfair)
Straight forecast £1

Running Total
£611.52

Racing - York 16th May

York 1:45
Emirates Skyline 10/1
Pevensey 10/1
Bluie Spinnaker 10/1
Best Prospect 11/1
Temple Place 11/1
Futun 12/1

10/1 the co-faves tells you all you need to know about this race really. I used to love 10f B handciaps at York but times change. I think at 25/1 I'll play Futun each way to improve on what he's shown so far this season, and I may put a point or two on Temple Place showing last week wasn't a fluke the market seems to think it was. Trying to avoid getting sucked in though.


York 2:45
Passage of Time 4/6
Shorthand 3/1
Sues Surprise 11/1


Market looks right. No bet at the moment.


York 3:15
Amadeus Wolf 4/1
Soldiers tale 7/1
Al Qasi 9/1
Rising Shadow 11/1
Les Arcs 16/1
Assertive 16/1
Fonthill Road 16/1
Moss Vale 20/1
Red Clubs 20/1
Quito 25/1
Steenberg 25/1
Conquest 25/1

Just a brief look at last year's result is reminder enough not to be bullish about this one. Amadeus Wolf cost me plenty last year, but maybe this is the year he proves himself. He manages to get away without a penalty here. All the racing post tipsters have gone for him so his price should be in freefall at least this morning. I'll play at 5/1. Too competitive to press up and add the bet to the £500 challenge though - I'm in no rush to fritter the profits away!


£500 Challenge
No Bet

Running Total
£611.52

Tuesday May 15th

No bet today.

I was going to come on here and suggest Archipenko was a great price for the Derby. I backed him at 60s before the Derrinstown, simply on jockey bookings. I was expecting to be in a position to trade if need be at around 6s. When he was still around 14s yesterday I decided to go in again instead!


However, I see the Racing Post have beaten me to it and made him the front-page star of today's edition. I'd hurry to get the last of the double figure prices. If you followed me onto Aqaleem Saturday as well that's a decent start to a winning portfolio.

Racing - Monday 14th May and £500 challenge

Windsor 7:00
Army of Angels 2/1
Take A Bow 7/2
Final Verse 4/1
New Seeker 6/1
Levera 8/1

Three of these like to lead. Of course the jockeys should know this and sort it out. They all have question marks as well - Levera poor run Saturday, Final verse seems to lose his race in the paddock and New Seeker has a penalty and of the three really does need to lead. So I'm pretty keen on the remaining two. Take A Bow needs poor ground and a frenetic pace to bring them back to him late on, else he'll be booked for a place as per the last couple of years. The racing fund will be playing him in hope though. The Challenge will be more circumspect.


£500 Challenge
£6 Army of Angels at 15/8 or better
£4 Take a Bow at 9/2 or better
£2.50 straight forecast Army beat Bow.

Running Total
£585.65

Football 13th May - £500 Challenge

Man Utd seem to have drifted all night - even before the naming of a weakened team. Looks a remarkable market over-reaction to me almost regardless of who plays. I'm happy to get involved.

The £500 challenge took a leap forward yesterday on the back of Aqaleem. Hope some of you played - shame about the SP. Luckily I did a small press-up on my bet at 16s on betfair late on.
The play-offs not proving quite so encouraging.


£500 Challenge
Man Utd to beat West Ham 4/5 or better.

Running Total
£598.15

Racing - 11May and £500 challenge

Ascot 1:45
Mountain High 4/6
Akarem 8/1
Balkan Knight 11/1
Kong 11/1
High Heal Sneakers 11/1

Tissue matches market. Mountain High could drift in which case he'd be of some interest - he's certainly better than this lot, despite last time out.


Ascot 2:20
Edaara 10/1
Trimelstown 11/1
King of Argo 11/1
Dabbers ridge 16/1
Skhilling Spirit 16/1
Wise Dennis 16/1
Presumtpive 16/1
Futures Dream 16/1
Fullandby 20/1
Partners in Jazz 25/1
Machinist 25/1
Malcheek 25/1
Ordnance Row 33/1

The sort of race I'm withdrawing from. However I will undoubtedly play Trimelstown and give Skhilling Spirit a chance to show the pace he did first time out.


Lingfield 2:40
Wasseema 11/8
Wake Up Maggie 13/8

Virtual match. There's a chance Wasseema could get caught up in a duel for the lead, and Wake up Maggie may just be better fresh and prefer the ground. Whatever, I've convinced myself they should be closer in the betting than they are and I'm playing Wake Up Maggie at 2s and better.


Lingfield 3:15
Mythical Kid 11/4
Kid Mambo 4/1
Many Volumes 4/1
Aqaleem 5/1
Heathstead Maison 6/1

Plenty of improvement likely in some of these. It's a flyer I know, but I think Aqaleem could show plenty. I took 100s for the Derby in the week and will have a crack at him here. I also took a big price about Many Volumes so wouldn't mind an impressive show from him either.


Lingfield 3:45
Sunlight 2/1
Folk Opera 5/2
Brisk Breeze 6/1
Elyaadi 9/1
Gull WIng 9/1

I was hoping Sunlight would be a backable second favourite here, but 2/1 is still probably fair with Godolphin yet to fire.


Haydock 3:05
Levera 7/4
Munaddam 7/2
Quito 7/1
vanderlin 9/1
Balthazaars Gift 16/1

could be a bit of a dodgy race. On the other hand Levera could get a soft lead and win cosily. 7/4 looks fair.


Haydock 3:40
Borderlescott 13/8
Fonthill Road 9/1
Ashdown Express 10/1
Barons Pit 10/1
Sierra Vista 10/1
Kostar 16/1
Prince Woodman 25/1

Fonthill Road's wellbeing of interest but Borderlescott looks solid if short.



£500 challenge

Ling 2:40 £12.50 Wake Up Maggie at 2/1 or better
Ling 3:15 £7.50 win Aqaleem at 9/1; £5 place at 5/2ish

Football 11 March

This week's ratings - the last of the season - only provide one match:

Sheff Utd to beat WIgan at 13/10 or better.



The play-offs.

Overall my ratings have led me to back Blackpool and Bristol Rovers outright, but to be fair my record in this is pretty woeful.

The first leg of the play-offs have always meant me getting my draw boots on, and the system still turns a profit. It's entirely sensible that the away (and supposedly better) teams should be happy with a draw if need be from the first leg.



£50 Challenge
Let's include the system as the racing hasn't been very conducive this week.

All 6 play-off first legs to be draws.
6 x £2s at 9/4 generally and 50p 6-fold.

Running total
£505.65

Racing 11th May

Chester 2:20
Desert Dew 9/4
Admiralofthefleet 3/1
Yazmaan 4/1
Ea 11/2

Sketchy tissue. Desert Dew fairly solid.


Chester 2:50
Scorpion 7/4
Ask 3/1
Peppertree Lane 4/1
The Whistling Teal 9/1

Scorpion with a lot of questions to answer and both he and Ask could be vulnerable first time out. That would let in Peppertree Lane as long as the ground is Ok, and he could possibly grind this out and expose any flaws in the favourites. He doesn't really strike me as a group horse but at 11/2 or better I think I'll pay to find out. This is considered a better race than last year when The Whistling Teal finally won, but you can at least be sure he's been readied for this and if you follow the line of reasoning opposing the front two, you'd probably want to save on him.


Chester 3:20
Giganticus 3/1
Dhaluar Dhar 5/1
Song of Passion 5/1
Glenbuck 7/1

This doesn't look that competitive and these four can make the most of their draws. Glenbuck has a chance of a softish lead, though that doesn't happen that often at Chester. However, anything above 10s looks worth a punt and you may get a chance to protect yourself in-running if that's your thing.

None of these appeal as £500 challenge bets though.

Racing - 10 May

Chester 1:50
Maraahel 1/2
Ivy Creek 11/2
Blue bajan 9/1

Looks straightforward for the favourite.


Chester 2:20
Kay Two 4/1
Mr Wolf 11/2
Bigalos bandit 9/1
Cape Royal 11/1
Guto 11/1
Turn on the Style 11/1
Dhaluar Dhar 16/1

I'd rather have kay Two over Mr Wolf, and of the lesser lights Bigalos Bandit interests.


Chester 2:50
Soldier of Fortune 4/6
Arabian Gulf 9/2
Metaphoric 9/2

Again. looks relatively straightforward for the favourite, but being a classic trial I'd rather play Maraahel at his price than Soldier of Fortune at his to be honest.

Chester 3:20
3 yr old handicaps not my thing, but I'd have Gulf express and favourite. He seems weak this morning but I'll back him at 9/2 or better.

Racing 9th May and £500 Challenge

Chester 1:50
See www.theracingforum.co.uk under the Daily Lay and Plays (juveniles) section for a discussion of this race.

Chester 2:20
Light Shift 3/1
All My Loving 7/2
Hollow Ridge 7/1
Fidelia 9/1
Hanging On 9/1
Lost In Wonder 10/1
Fashion Statment 16/1

I'm not sure the front two are as clear here as the betting suggests. These listed fillies races are often impossible puzzles and this looks typically full of unexposed horses from stables who know how to look after the fairer sex. I'll probably play the likes of Fidelia and Hanging On (possibly a good day for Swinburn)


Chester 2:50
Galient 6/1
Flare Star 10/1
Som Tala 10/1
Nordwind 11/1
Enjoy the Moment 11/1
Greenwich Meantime 12/1
Admiral 12/1
Whispering Death 12/1
Under the Rainbow 16/1
Afrad 16/1
dancing Bay 33/1
Odiham 33/1

I can't remember doing well on this race over the years. Anak Pekan first time around is the only winner I can recall backing in the last ten years. So I think I'll play my four behind the favourite and hope for the best.


Chester 3:20
Stotsfold 9/4
Charlie Tokyo 5/2
Blythe Knight 12/1
Realism 20/1
Bazart 20/1
European Dream 20/1

I think the front two are clear here. Not sure how I'll play it - Charlie Tokyo weak, and I'll probably do sneaky Swinburn doubles so a watching brief for now.


Beverley 3:00
Tilt 7/2
Kilimandscharo 7/2
Nelsons Column 4/1
Kames Park 8/1
Mull of Dubai 8/1

Ladbrokes, Corals and Hills all go longest Nelsons Column, so there has to be a worry as to his well-being. Not helped by his woeful effort last time. That said, I can see him getting a soft lead here on a track much better suited. Compared to the tricky races at Chester I think I'd be better off oming down the pitch for a thump here than frittering there. So whilst he isn't in the normal price range for a £500 challenge bet I think I'll throw him in anyway.


£500 Challenge
£12.50 win Nelson's Column at 7/1 or better

Running Total
£518.15

Racing - and £500 Challenge - 8th May

Interesting card at Kelso today. I won't bother putting some pretty boring tissues up, but overall:

1. I don't like Scots Grey at the price. He's always been best fresh and on the whole, apart from the last two runs, he's been a disappointment. One for the layers to get stuck into.

2. I do like Peter Bowen's team. I'll be playing them in doubles and a five-fold.

3. £500 Challenge
The 2:50 is a match between My Immortal and Contact Dancer. The latter has hit a few and that is a worry, but My Immortal has always struck me as a disappointing type. My move has led to me missing quite a few races (plus I haven't got Satellite where I am so no RUK and ATR is proving a problem), and I missed My Immortal's novice win. I'm not sure he should be long odds on though - and that despite the penalty CD's carrying.

Contact Dancer £12.50 at 7/4 or better

Running total
£530.65

Horse Racing 6th May and £500 challenge

Newmarket 1:55
Pinpoint 9/2
Charlie cool 6/1
Dansili Dancer 6/1
Royal Oath 6/1
Ace of Hearts 20/1
Supaseus 20/1
Night Crescendo 20/1

The front four all look solid and my prices have them all essentially backable. I think if playing early the 8s available on Charlie Cool and Dansili Dancer are worth taking. The latter looks to have a good draw - most the big runners are trapped wide, especially Royal Oath.


Newmarket 2:30
Sixties Icon 2/1
Papal Bull 5/2
Lindas Lad 9/2
Admirals Cruise 7/1
Mighty 10/1

A head-scratcher of a tissue. The bookie prices must include a lot of "readiness" info to my mind and I'm cautious of swimming against it. However, at the prices I will play. Sixties Icon should be favourite for me, despite trip and going. I'll admit I don't like playing group 1 horses in lower group races though. Lindas Lad was all the rage a year ago, and interesting to see her sent here. I've played the two of them and assuming Icon drifts I'll be suckered into playing again.


Newmarket 3:10
Finsceal Beo 7/4
Arch Swing 12/1
Indian Ink 12/1
Miss Beatrix 12/1
Theann 12/1
Treat 12/1
Yaqeen 12/1
Simply Perfect 16/1
Scarlet Runner 25/1
Selinka 25/1

I have Finsceal Beo at 10s (nice) and Arch Swing at 20s (not so nice), so can afford to play on the favourite failing. Instead of laying off part of the bet I'm happy to seek out a few big prices in case of another upset. I've added Theann and Treat to the portfolio, and played at huge prices on no-hopers Vital Statistics and Darfonah. However, I do think Selinka is worth a mention. You can get 125/1 ew guaranteed 1,2,3,4 and that looks worth a go.


Newmarket 3:45
Tax Free 6/4
Biniou 6/1
Presto Shinko 10/1
Peace Offering 10/1
Paradise Isle 10/1

This looks straightforward for Tax Free. I'm surprised at his weakness this morning. Biniou could be an improver this year - weak this morning, and Nicholls throws his usual curve ball with Peace Offering. I can't get excited about any others in the conditions. Backing any Nicholls runner troubles me, favourites especially so, but here goes anyway.


£500 challenge

2:30 Newmarket
£6 Sixties Icon at 5/2 or better
£6 Lindas Lad at 7/1 or better
25p rev fc

3:45 Newmarket
£12.50 win Tax Free at 15/8 or bigger

£500 Challenge - football Sunday 6th May

The racing today saw Echelon win but Bluebok get touched off after running a pretty game race - overall harm done.

Football - that Darlington bet looks a bit foolish after their hammering, but Villa kept us ticking over.

Sunday - let's take Leicester to beat Wolves. I've already done them at 11/4 in the match market. They are more like 2/1 in my book. Therefore, for the £500 challenge the draw no bet market looks attractive.

Leicester £12.50 beat Wolves (draw no bet) at 13/8 or better.


Running total:
£511.25

Racing - Newmarket 5th May and £500 challenge

Newmarket 2:45
Echelon 4/5
Abisheka 4/1

The Racing Post suggests Echelon won't stay the extra furlong. Possibly, but for me she simply outclasses this lot. 4/5 is fair - should she drift closer to Evens I'd dive in.


Newmarket 3:25
Adagio 7/2
Diamond Tycoon 6/1
US ranger 6/1
Haatef 9/1
Major Cadeaux 9/1
Strategic Prince 9/1
Tobosa 25/1
Duke of Marmalade 33/1
Dutch Art 33/1

Cracking renewal. I've got my front two tucked away ante post, and still see them as the likeliest. Some believe being drawn low will be a disadvantage, but if Diamond Tycoon and Major Cadeaux run like last time, there should be plenty of pace there to tow Adagio through. Front running is probably a disadvantage though, and the big field is likely to try the stamina of Haatef and others. US Ranger is the big unknown, and I have a sneaky feeling for Tobosa making the frame (you can get first 4 if you shop around).


Newmarket 4:00
Bentong 16/1
Mutamared 16/1
Wyatt Earp 16/1
Fantasy Believer 25/1
Grantley Adams 25/1
Meccas mate 25/1
Skhilling Spirit 25/1
Burning Incense 25/1
Dark Missile 25/1
Fullandby 25/1
beaver patrol 25/1
Fictional 33/1
Charles Darwin 33/1

The sort of hopelessly competitive race I'm trying to wean myself off. Again I suspect draw theorists will be plumping high. I'll wait until after the Guineas, but looking at the pace I think I'd favour low and my tissue slightly reflects that. Nothing doing at the moment.


Goodwood 2:30
Bluebok 3/1
Peopleton Brook 6/1
Golden dixie 11/1
Pic Up Sticks 11/1

I really like the chances of Bluebok here. The draw not ideal but there's no obvious pace so he should be able to track across Ok. Peopleton Brook would be the danger to repeat last year. I'll back them both.


Thirsk 3:00
Minority report 9/2
Flipando 11/2
Bustan 7/1
My Paris 20/1

The front three will be in my life-changing Scoop6 ticket! Not sure if I'll bet the race though.


£500 Challenge
£12.50 win Echelon 4/5 or better
£12.50 win Bluebok 7/2 or better

Racing - 4th May

No early price bets today. I may play the three races below. When I say "play the race" - I mean take a few horses against the field - to 0.5% of my fund in total - looking for a high strike rate, low return.


Lingfield 4:00
Tabadul 4/1
Queens Best 4/1
Orchard Supreme 5/1
Ofaraby 9/1
Best Prospect 9/1
Tiger Tiger 11/1

I guess the front two may well be better than these, but as Lingfield debutants you'd be hard-pressed to back them today at the prices. Orchard Supreme is of course a favourite of mine, which explains the price, but distance and wellbeing remain doubts. Ofaraby may be too long based on the received wisdom that he needs his first run. I'll sit and wait and could play the race based around getting the front two beaten at combined odds on.


Musselburgh 3:50
Fire Up The Band 4/1
The Tatling 4/1
Terentia 4/1
Merlins Dancer 4/1
River Falcon 7/1
Tournedos 20/1

A sketchy tissue. Four Nicholls runners, and front running sorts on the whole. Assuming they'll be sensible, The Tatling could struggle to pick them off. I have never got a hold on Nicholls' runners to be honest so the race doesn't particularly appeal, despite Fire up the Band and Merlins Dancer looking backable on my figures.


Musselburgh 4:50
Imperial Echo 6/1
Flying Bantam 7/1
Royal Dignitary 12/1
Fremen 12/1
King Harson 16/1
Stonehaugh 16/1

Hopeless race. These northern handicaps have always mocked me and I'm only 50% on finding the winner with these 6. Flying Bantam does interest me at bottomweight, but again a watching brief.


£500 challenge - sadly no bet today on a disappointing day.

Weekend Football and £500 Challenge - 3 May

Using the ratings there are 4 matches to play this weekend.

Villa to beat Sheff Utd at 11/10 (anything over Evens)
Darlington to beat Stockport at 2/1 (anything over 7/4)
Hartlepool to beat Bristol Rovers at 11/10 (anything over Evens)
Leicester to beat Wolves at 11/4


The £500 Challenge will get involved in two of these (and we may play Leicester closer to Sunday).

1) Aston Villa to beat Sheff Utd. This is a typical silly season price. The prices are based on a team with nothing to play for against a team battling against relegation. It is true that Villa have struggled to finish teams off at home but I'm closer to 8/11 with my prices.
£12.50 Villa at 11/10


2) Darlington to beat Stockport. Another team with nothing to play for up against a team with a last throw of the dice. However, the teams are a pretty similar standard and Stockport's long run of winning form came to an end a while ago. There's no way Doncaster should be anything like 2/1 - and there was a welcome 12/5 available early on.
£12.50 Darlington at 2/1

Racing - 2nd May

Poor card at Ascot really and only a couple of races to have any interest in, and both only ones to play the race - with no obvious standout bet.


Ascot 3:20
Cesare 9/4
Road to Love 7/2
Illustrious Blue 9/2
Dunelight 6/1

Looks to be plenty of pace and Road to Love may not get all his own way. Cesare looks to have the versatility to win regardless of pace. I'd take him and Dunelight over the other two, but will look again late on.


Ascot 3:55
The Last Drop 7/4
Hawridge Prince 9/4
Tungsten Strike 4/1

I'm a fan of Hawridge Prince but he still carries a penalty and this ground could be plenty quick enough. The Last Drop was a shade unlucky last time in a race he would have been plenty fit enough - (Hills would have wanted to win the Further Flight stakes - or some my staking went that day!). Tungsten Strike could be the fly in the ointment - going well fresh - after a disappointing end to last season. A tight market. As it stands I may play the race. I'm thinking Hawridge Prince could be overbet by a bunch of Sergeant Cecil fans and I may take him on with the other two.



£500 Challenge - no bet today.

Racing 1st May, Golf and £500 Challenge

Wincanton 3:50
Matt The Thrasher 3/1
Le Jaguar 7/2
Red Echo 7/2
Xellance 6/1
Even More 10/1

A very messy race. I've never liked Le Jaguar, Red Echo looked to have gone wrong last time, and Matt the Thrasher is the obvious improver, but with definite stamina doubts. Xellance, despite not having won in living memory, looks like he may be a Dr Newland special and I see Corals are ducking him this morning. Overall, not for me.



Golf - Italian Open

Two for me here.

Jeev Singh. Yes, I know this is getting boring. However, on my ratings he's probably the best golfer in this field and 50/1 is an insult and a must each way.

Anders Hansen. Hard to ignore his course form here, and although he may be a bit rusty I think 6/1 the place looks big. Sadly, I struggle to get much on with the Tote.

Also, Paddy Power are going ew the first 6 in both golf tournaments this week. Looking at the ew double angle, I'll stick a few pennies on Hansen and perennial straight-hitting placer Luke Donald at 25/1 the both.




£500 Challenge
A good start to the challenge last night. After some thought I've decided that on the whole we'll avoid the golf within the challenge - the inevitable losing runs won't play well with the fund's objectives.

Running Total 512.50

£500 Challenge - Football 30 April

Let's kick this challenge off. It's not exactly a knocking bet but I do have it as value.

Reading £12.50 to beat Newcastle at Evens (or a shade better on the Asian handicap on Betfair).

I have Reading at 5/6 for this - they are going great guns still, and can score compared to a Newcastle side that have only scored 3 goals in 8 matches.

£12.50 = 2.5% of starting fund.

We will have 3 bet levels.
2.5% for normal bets;
5% for coming down the pitch for good thump.
10% for odds-on certainty type bets - eg Australia to win the Ashes.

This is a good deal more aggressive than my usual 0.5% to 1% range but hopefully this side of foolhardy.

I'll put running totals at the bottom of each posting. It is my intention to try to find a bet most days.

A new start - part 2

So, here I am in sunny Shropshire. Thanks for all the kind words.

Time for a new approach to the blog. But first a final rundown of the blog to this point, and a review of the 2006/7 jumps season.

Overall - all points bet on the blog since inception returns 101%. Which aint gonna make you rich, but at least I haven't bankrupted anyone!

The football bets for this season have returned 106% which is more like it.

Sadly, the racing hasn't fared so well - stuck at 89% - something that can be explained by the review below.


Jumps season 2006/7
Despite a terrible January and February this turned out to be a pretty decent season.

Novice chases in particular were a source of profit - returning 128%. I think I watched pretty much every single decent novice chase this year and had a comprehensive profile of most horses.

Handicap hurdles, on the other hand were terrible - only 83% returns - and I started to turn my back on the more competitive handicaps accordingly.

Ante post bets continued to be very profitable (despite long losing runs) - returning 134%. It's fair to say the 400/1 on Ebaziyan had a major effect! I don't advise ante post bets on the blog, which looks a shame now!

And my "all weather experiment" with Mr Toad proved surprisingly successful - at 112% returns, although to be fair Stoneacre Lad and Orchard Supreme accounted for virtually all of that! Still, it's something I'll continue with for next season. Again, these bets weren't on here as we used theracingforum.com as our experimental lab.

Most importantly were two very nice big-odds winning trebles. The first, repeating a Wincanton treble from the previous season, I landed a big payday when Petitjean, Parsons Legacy and Crow Wood obliged. Later I repeated this with L'Antartique, Taranis and Inglie Drever at Cheltenham.

The first treble came when I was doing the daily tissue for escorialracing.com If those bets had been accounted for on here, then the racing side of things would be nicely in profit. That said, I didn't actually advise the treble, although anyone familiar with my approach will know that I always play a modest 1pt on accumulators on my most solid bets.

The three horses in my second treble were all highlighted as bets here, but again no treble advised.

Overall the horse fund experienced the usual over the year - long slow periods of standing still or declining, punctuated by the step-jumps of the big wins.

All of this I hope explains why I'm a bit frustrated by the blog. So, I've decided to change it slightly. And here's how.

I started off my racing fund all those years ago with £500. I bet very conservatively and have never looked back. I recently suggested £500 as a fair size starting bank with a view to some fun and potential long-term growth, and without too much despair should the bank be busted.

It occurred to me on my break I could aim for something similar here. At the start of the year I was thinking about a fund that "pressed up" on what I considered good bets in all my other funds, but the terrors of January led me to abandon it.

I think I'll reincarnate it as the £500 challenge. (I will set up a fund myself to do this for real - though proportionally larger!) So, recommended bets will be found on here, with real-sized staking. We'll see how we get on.

My normal approach is to to to turn over the fund ten times in a season, make 10% profit and so double my bank. I don't know that this challenge can realistically expect that - since it will be based on a more aggressive staking system than I usually use, though probably on selections at the shorter price range. The aggressive staking will put the fund at far more risk of going bankrupt than I normally allow (you've been warned), but the more refined approach should in theory lead to a higher strike rate. That said, you can see from the breakdown of the racing season that it isn't selectivity that is the key to my profit - the scatter-gun seems to be more successful. So , it will be an interesting experiment for me and hopefully a bit of fun. Feel free to join in.

I will still put up tissues for main racing, and advices, but without points etc - to save me monitoring fictional profits. I'll continue to update you on the overall performance of my own funds.

A New Start - 15th April

I'm moving to Shropshire tomorrow. Not sure The Tooting Tissue is going to sound right up there!

We're with the in-laws for a couple of weeks, before moving into rented accommodation in Shifnal whilst we acclimatise and set about finding a new home.

I'll be off-line for at least a couple of weeks before I get sorted, so there won't be any posts on here for a while.

When I'm off I may re-think the blog - it's been struggling and whilst I did have a couple of tough months at the start of the year, and a pretty horrid Aintree, I have actually had a pretty successful start to the year overall and the blog doesn't seem to reflect this. I think I'll need to either post up every single thing (which would be plain tiresome), or focus on quality bets.
We'll see.

Back soon.

Racing - Aintree Saturday 14th April

Worst I can remember feeling Grand National morning - after two tough blank days. With loads of football as well (after a blank bank holiday monday) it could be a long day!



Aintree 4:15 - Grand National
Prices are on another posting below. Not much has changed.

I remain committed to Eurotrek. Nicholls' horses have been running poorly and that is off-putting. However, Eurotrek has had a totally different preparation to the Cheltenham horses and I'll hope that he's in different shape. Any winner early on today for the stable would be encouraging though.

Of the rest I have my usual bulging portfolio of ante post dabbles. Idle Talk could get into a nice rhythm and if Victor Chandler are still offering it you can bet him with a money back offer should he fall. Of the Irish, Point Barrow satisfies the trends boys and I keep looking at (and nibbling at - 250/1 down) Homer Wells.



Aintree 2:15
Fair Along 9/4
Dont Push It 7/2
Twist Magic 7/2
Jack The Giant 9/1

Personally I think Fair Along should be favourite here. I have had Twist Magic penned in for this race, but, again, Nicholls' Cheltenham horses have run deplorably so far, and not looked too bright according to paddock pundits.

Fair Along (like Detroit City) has to put poor runs behind him and may have done too much this season and all that. But at the prices I feel obliged to be forgiving and play.

Fair Along 5pts win at 11/4+


Aintree 2:50
Detroit City 6/4
Afsoun 7/1
Asian Maze 11/1
Jazz messenger 12/1
Gaspara 12/1
Al Eile 16/1

As with the above DC may be gone for the season. On the other hand on this season's form up to Cheltenham he's way better than these. Asian Maze has run like a dog all year though this did suit perfectly last year. Gaspara is interesting. Pipe snr must have known quite how much was in hand when topping up his pension fund and just maybe Gaspara is group material.

Detroit City 5pts win at 7/4+

Racing - Aintree 13th April

Tough first day. Aintree marks the end of my betting year and end of the jumps season. I usually get a last minute boost from the meeting - and I could do without the opposite happening this year!

Aintree 2:00
Aces Four 3/1
Ungaro 4/1
Turko 6/1
Killaghy Castle 7/1
Faasel 9/1
Boychuck 20/1
Dom Dorgeval 20/1

As with yesterday I have two here who let me down at the festival. Ungaro didn't seem to take to the track - or more accurately was ridden as though they believed that would be the case beforehand and were protecting him. This should be much more his cup of tea and I don't need much encouragement to get involved again. The track should also help Turko but I can't summon up quite as much enthusiasm.

Ungaro 5pts win at 11/2+



Aintree 2:35
Wichita Lineman Evens
Massinis Maguire 4/1
Silverburn 11/2
Imperial Commander 20/1
Wee Forbees 20/1

The form for this race looks very solid and I'd see them finishing in this order. If only life was that simple!


Aintree 3:10
Well chief Evens
Taranis 4/1
Monets Garden 11/2
Hi Cloy 12/1

Taranis did us a huge favour when winning at the festival and forming part of a big treble. However, he does look up against it here - the allowances in the Ryanair definitely helped. I expect I'll have a modest bet on him nearer the time, and on Hi Cloy who was the cornerstone of a successful Aintree last year.


Aintree 3:45
Irish Raptor 12/1
Brooklyn Breeze 12/1
Briery Fox 12/1
Umbrella Man 12/1
Le Volfoni 20/1
On The Net 20/1
Milan Deux Mille 20/1
Lord of Illusion 20/1
Turthen 20/1
Iron Man 33/1
Latimers Place 33/1
Hakim 33/1
Patman Du Charmil 33/1
Risk Accessor 33/1
Lost Time 33/1

Wide open. Umbrella Man is a fragile beast and may have been amiss last time. Nothing wrong the time before that though and at the prices has to be a small bet. I can see Risk Acessor placing off bottomweight and Lord of Illusion and Milan Deux Mille also take the eye but only at fair prices.

Umbrella Man 3pts win at 25/1+


Aintree 4:20
De Soto 7/2
Osana 7/2
Ouninpohja 4/1
Tyson 9/1
Enforce 20/1

I've priced Osana on the basis I really thought he'd go close in the Supreme Novices if given the chance, and I thought he ran a cracker in the County to stay on off a throat-cutting pace that played into the hands of the likes of Ouninpohja. The latter will no doubt come to win the race but probably find yet another way of losing!

Osana 3pts win at 4/1


Aintree 4:55
CopsaleLad 13/2
Reveillez 9/1
Undeniable 10/1
Lankawi 10/1
New Alco 11/1
Lacdoudal 11/1
Green Belt Flyer 11/1
Limerick Boy 20/1
Pole Star 20/1
Lou Du Moulin Mas 20/1

Some exposed rogues here. New Alco was one of my festival losers - I had a nice four figure sum running onto him at Cheltenham and he couldn't even place! He does look exposed and Aintree on quicker ground unlikely to suit as well as his favourite track, but as you'll have guessed I will keep him on-side, especially in the get rich quick trebles. However, two lurkers at the bottom of the weights here look worth a normal bet. Undeniable still looks well-treated and Lankawi may have more improvement in him, not something you can say about many of these.

Undeniable 3pts win at 14/1+
Lankawi 3pts win at 14/1+

Football - 14th April

More silly season prices, just hope we don't draw another blank!

Reading 5pts beat Fulham at 10/11

Sheff Utd 5pts beat West Ham at 6/4

Birmingham 5pts beat Southampton at 11/10

Coventry 5pts beat Preston at 7/4

C Palace 5pts beat Wolves at 8/5

Ipswich 5pts beat Derby at 9/4

Millwall 5pts beat Tranmere at 11/10

Grimsby (away) 5pts beat Accrington at 5/2

Barnet 5pts beat Bristol Rovers at 7/4 (6/4 OK)

Sunday: Chester 5pts beat Shrewsbury at 2/1 (7/4 OK).


Someone asked me how I felt about Chris Coleman leaving Fulham.

Here's the best players over the last few years in a Fulham shirt.
Edwin Van De Saar
Steve Finnan
Sean Davis
Steed Malbranque
Luis Boa Morte
Louis Saha

If you sell all your best players, what on earth can you expect?

Coleman was only brought in (and a lovely gamble it was - 66/1) because Mo hadn't the money to put a 'name' in place. I think he's done a great job to keep Fulham competitive with a team of declining quality. In fact he's done way better than I expected. He's very well thought of at Crystal Palace and I could see him going there soon enough, or maybe Wales will come calling. Whatever, he should get another chance.






Bournemouth 5pts beat Swansea at 9/5

Aintree - Thursday 12th April

Aintree 2:00
Mighty Man 7/4
Inglis Drever 9/4
Black Jack Ketchum 3/1
Blazing Bailey 9/1

BJK makes the market yet again. This course is much more Mighty Man's cup of tea than Inglis Drever's. However, that looks more than factored into the available prices and yet again Inglis Drever is too big a price. I'll play now, and also may put a bid for when he gets behind in-running.

Inglis Drever 5pts win at 7/2+



Aintree 2:35
Exotic Dancer 2/1
Turpin Green 5/2
State of Play 3/1
Our Vic 8/1
My Will 16/1

The Gold Cup seemed to be run to form, these prices largely reflect that. In many ways Exotic Dancer should be much shorter. However, and despite the King George, I do think there's a large Cheltenham factor involved with the horse. Plus anyone who saw him lose to Turpin Green in the three runner race has to doubt him in a small field. State of Play likes it here but so does Turpin Green who could also get a chance to dominate this small field. Again, I'll play the prices.

Turpin Green 5pts win at 7/2


Aintree 3:10
Katchit 6/4
Punjabi 11/2
Degas Art 10/1
Grand Bleu 10/1
Tritonix 10/1
Sendani 20/1

Katchit's been good to me all year and I wouldn't want to jump ship now. On the other hand he's no price this morning. Punjabi should love it round here and can make a race of it, plus the Doumen horse and Degas Art can be competitive and the vibes are strong for Tritonix. All in all a tricky race and one I'll keep out of for now.


Aintree 4:20
Hasty Prince 7/1
Jacks Craic 7/1
Marshall hall 9/1
Andreas 10/1
Crossbow Creek 12/1
Demi Beau 12/1
Greenhope 12/1
Kit Carson 12/1

I backed Greenhope at Cheltenham when Henderson then said he wasn't ready. He ran pretty well though. I've always had a system that when you've backed one at a decent price at Cheltenham you must back them at Aintree, and it's been spectacularly kind to me over the years. The other horse to take the eye is Jacks Craic. Admittedly he's done nothing this year, but he has edged down to a decent mark and could repeat last year's victory.

Greenhope 3pts win at 30/1
Jacks Craic 3pts win at 10/1


Aintree 4:55
Liberate 2/1
Tidal bay 3/1
Wins Now 6/1
Larkwing 9/1
My Petra 16/1
Carlitos 20/1
Bedlam Boy 20/1

The front two are solid enough but unexciting. I backed Larkwing ante post for Cheltenham and can see myself playing later on.


Aintree 5:30
Burntoakboy 7/1
Kicks For Free 7/1
Laouen 7/1
Flying Falcon 11/1
Acambo 20/1
Shatbdi 20/1
Marhaba Million 20/1
Special Envoy 25/1
Into the Shadowns 25/1
Ice Tea 25/1

Tricky race. Burntoakboy won for me at cheltenham so will definitely be in the portfolio. Kicks for Free should really like this course and distance, and Flying Falcon ran an encouraging comeback race. No bet right now though.

Grand National

Grand National Tissue - 11 April
Eurotrek 12/1
Idle Talk 16/1
Point Barrow 16/1
L'Ami 20/1
Numbersixvalverde 20/1
Bewleye Berry 20/1
McKelvey 20/1
Joes Edge 20/1
Hedgehunter 25/1
Monkerhostin 25/1
Billyvoddan 33/1
Simon 33/1
Ballycassidy 33/1
Dun Doire 33/1
Bothar Na 33/1
Homer Wells 33/1
Clan Royal 50/1
Slim Pickings 50/1
Zabenz 50/1
Silver Birch 50/1
Jack High 50/1

The tissue is based on quickish ground.

I had no trouble giving the winner last year - spraying points around on Irish raiders wasn't exactly contrarian. But paid out all the same.

Usually the secret to the National is to back four or more, win only. Only three times in the last years have I had a strong feeling for one horse in the National and bet accordingly.

1. Young Hustler - Carl Llewellyn steps off him at the third fence, something I've yet to forgive him for.

2. What's Up Boys - my favourite horse, set to make my 40th birthday, but came too soon under a typically asinine ride from Dickie Johnson and then gave up the running rail to Bindaree for an agonising second.

3. Clan Royal - when Liam Cooper headed the wrong way after the last and was swallowed up accordingly.

As you can see my record on these good things is terrible. So be careful when I say I have a similar feeling this year, even if I have only given him c7% of the book.

Step forward Eurotrek.

Touch of class, jumps, stays, and ran a great trial in the Bechers. Most bookies are non runner no bet and 16/1 looks worth taking. Unless Ruby switches to him I can't see him being overly popular though and 20/1 could well be freely available (that's the price on betfair this morning). I've been topping up all winter but for here let's keep it modest.

Eurotrek 6pts win at 20/1

I'll look at the race again Saturday morning.

Racing - Irish National

I had a cracking weekend in Dublin for my fortieth birthday that included a very hungover trip to Fairyhouse for the Irish National. That's as close as I've come to the winner though!

Fairyhouse 3:55
Kings Advocate 10/1
Dix Villex 12/1
Patsy Hall 16/1
All in the Stars 16/1
Juveigneur 20/1
Distant Thunder 20/1
Whyso Mayo 20/1
Cloudy Lane 20/1
Well Tutored 20/1
Nine de Sivola 20/1
Cane Brake 33/1
Butlers Cabin 33/1
Gazzas Girl 33/1
Mac Three 33/1

As you can see my prices are all over the place compared to the bookies. That's often the case in wide open handicaps where a difference of one or two per cent, plus the overround can make the differences look big. It's illusory though. The difference between 16/1 and 66/1 is roughly the same as that between Evens and 5/4. The only difference is that the 5/4 shot is much more likely to win than the 66/1 one. This is a concept some 'value' students struggle with.

Anyway, I'll play my front four - I've obviously found something to make me price them so, albeit simply being Ruby riding, or that they are one-time occupants of my virtual stable.

Kings Advocate 2pts win at 11/1
Dix Villex 2pts win at 20/1
Patsy Hall 2pts win at 33/1
All in the Stars 2pts ew at 40/1

Football - Bank Holiday Monday

Top and bottom apart, the rest of these are more "silly season" games.

Bolton 5pts beat Everton at 5/4

Norwich 5pts beat West Brom at 7/4

C Palace (away) 5pts beat Stoke at 10/3

Huddersfield 5pts beat Blackpool at 7/4

Grimsby 5pts beat Wycombe at 6/4

Wrexham 5pts beat Notts Co at 6/4

Racing - Saturday 7th April

I was 45 yesterday. Forgot about it until past lunch-time!



On the day he reached forty-five
My father said to his third wife
"What a great day to be alive.
Today is the first day of the second half of my life".

A touching good story, but wait.
He was dead by forty-eight.
And now I hear the hooves of forty-five,
It is a good, good day to be alive.



Not particularly a good day for betting though...


Kempton 3:20
Tabadul 6/1
Futun 13/2
Celtic Spirit 13/2
Royal jet 12/1
Weightless 16/1
Quince 16/1
Active Asset 16/1
Charlie Tokyo 16/1
All the Good 25/1

Not ever been a good race for me. However, this morning Pricewise and I seem to be in rare agreement, these days at least. Futun looks potentially a class above these and Celtic Spirit's race over course and distance behind Acrobatic could hardly read any better. With plenty of pace looking likely Futun should be able to settle and the winner should come late and wide.
Given pricewise's terrible run this jumps season the prices are holding up this morning.

Futun 4pts win at 10/1
Celtic Spirit 4pts win at 10/1
(chuck in a small forecast)


Kempton 3:50
Charlie Cool 4/1
Sri Diamond 5/1
Imperial Star 5/1
Cimyla 10/1
Dansili dancer 10/1
Grand Passion 10/1
Nakheel 10/1

Charlie Cool and Sri Diamond would probably be the other way round in betting but for Jamie Spencer seemingly switching rides. The suspicion is that Sri Diamond, withdrawn from Winter Derby last week, isn't tip-top. The market could be all over the place later. Imperial Star looks the one who could be better than this class. I'll play. Enthusiasm is tempered by him from the Gosden stable (improve for run) and by him being longest with Corals.

Imperial Star 5pts win at 7/1+


The Haydock races look very tricky with Spring ground and overraced horses. I'll be treading very carefully.

Football - Saturday 7th April

It looks like the start of the silly season, judging by the number of bets I've come up with.

For newbies, this refers to the notion that a team with something to play for (relegation/promotion) will over perform and a mid-table team with nothing to play for will underperform. Statistics show this to be a myth. However, the bookies still adjust their odds towards the end of the season to take this into account. This is partly because they fall for the myth themselves, but mainly because they are aware the punters will.

See if you can spot the ones below that fall into this situation.

(Friday) Chester 5pts beat Darlington at 7/4

Arsenal 5pts beat West Ham at 1/2 (!)

Blackburn 5pts beat Aston Villa at 11/10

Coventry 5pts beat QPR at Evens

C. Palace 5pts beat Preston at 7/4

Ipswich 5pts beat Barnsley at Evens

Crewe (away) 5pts beat Chesterfield at 9/4

Millwall 5pts beat Nottm Forest at 2/1

Huddersfield (away) 5pts beat Oldham at 9/2

Rochdale (away) 5pts beat Bury at 17/10

US Masters Golf

I'd love to unearth a big priced beauty for you but frankly at the prices I'm going the other way.

Tiger Woods is now 7/4 and I thought 6/4 was fair to be honest.
5pts win at 7/4

Mickelson is touching 2/1 for a place on the exchanges - call it 15/8.
5pts place at 15/8

Premiership Relegation

I've just been through the remaining fixtures applying my ratings. For all the speculation to the contrary the figures make it seem impossible for West Ham and not much better for Charlton. I have the latter finishing 4pts away from safety, and that's only if Fulham have a nightmare run-in.

They definitely look a decent price this morning. Save on Fulham at 16s if need be.

Charlton 10pts relegated at 5/6