Whitbread

No time this morning. I was hoping est End Rocker or Iconoclast would line up. Instead I've had a tickle on two rank outsiders who need to find some form from somewhere but are priced fairly to do so.

Major Malarkey £10ew 33/1 (first 5)
Fire and Rain £10 ew 33/1 (first 5)
do a forecast, and make up some treble with both!

Be lucky...

Scottish National

Which has been a sometime lucky race for me over the years. I'm not really connected to it this year I have to say, but I did make a note about Ouzbeck months ago "leave out of calculations until back for go at a good ground Scottish National". Emma Lavelle is one of my favourite "go-to" trainers in handicaps and I'll hope the sun shines enough at 16/1, where I had him closer to 10s....


Ouzbeck £25ew at 16/1

Grand National

Nothing to add to the post below.

Silver By Nature - you have to be worried about the ground now, so my number one pick is West End Rocker each way at 33/1+, and win only at 50/1ish. Fill your boots!

Of the Irish, I'd be keenest on Midnight Club and Backstage, but the prices have probably long gone - and Golden Kite could make you dream out in front for a while at 100/1ish.


Be lucky...

US Masters and Grand National

Saturday Gamblers have to have a go at both of these events don't they!

Grand National.
There's a great write-up on this on Theracingforum.



by "gingertipster" halfway down page 24.

My money will be divided between two horses for now and I may go again Saturday:
Silver by Nature. You have to worry about the ground now, but I've thought of him for this for 2 years and they've got him in very well handicapped.
West End Rocker. If you forgive his last run, and it's easy to do so, he looks a rock solid prospect. That last run just gives us a nice price to play with.
One of the problems with being part-time these days is I haven't got a handle on the Irish form this year - which proved expensive at Cheltenham! - I'll focus on that ahead of Saturday.


US Masters:
I've decided to be a fan this year. Again, when gambling full-time I found I was falling out of love with a lot of sporting events. Grinding can be a right pain. So, there's no deep-seated value-added analysis here, just fandom. That said, how on earth is McDowell 50/1?


So a mid-week £100ish might look like:
Silver By Nature £20 at 14/1
West End Rocker £10ew at 40/1
Kaymer £10 at 22/1
Casey £10 at 33/1
McDowell £10 at 50/1
Poulter £10 at 50/1
McIlroy £10 at 30/1

West End Rocker/McDowell £10 double returns £15000ish
West End Rocker/McDowell and Fine parchment in the Topham £5 returns £80000ish. That'll do.



Be Lucky...

The Lincoln

No self-respecting professional without inside information would dream of a bet in the Lincoln. Luckily, us Saturday Gamblers have no such constraints!

Actually, the Spring Mile has a better betting shape to it, with two at the front of the market at silly looking prices. I'm happy to take three against them at slightly inflated odds - Dance and Dance, Just one for the Road, and Oriental Set.

The Lincoln does look to have a legitimate favourite, fairly priced, so I'm more circumspect here. But let's throw a few quid on Gunner Lindley at 11/1ish. For those looking for bigger prices Doctor Crane if he's fit and doesn't run too free, and how about 60/1+ on Harrison George to cause a mother of an upset.

Football and I can see West Ham and Stoke getting something from their games, and wouldn't be surprised to see Woy Hodgson get a little bit of revenge either. Not sure how to play any of them, but how about a 70/1 treble for the fun of it.

So, something like:
£20 Dance and Dance at 16/1
£10 Just for the Road at 25/1
£10 Oriental Set at 25/1
6 x £1 combination exactas and 50p combination trifecta

£10 double Dance and Dance and Gunner Lindley
If that fails £20 Gunner Lindley 11/1

£10 treble West Ham/Stoke/West Brom

£10 treble Dance and Dance/Gunner Lindley/Silver by Nature (Grand National) returns £25000


Be lucky...

Saturday 26th March

The racing is not at all my cup of tea today, with just the one race at Newbury of interest. And it's a poor one. Burren Legend won it last year and has good course form. I'm not sure this race will fall in his lap, and given he's been pulled up three times already this season, he's not each way material. But I'll play at the price, and throw a tenner at veteran Briery Fox - who I see Corals have ducked.

Another Saturday, and another chance to oppose an England team. You'll never go broke laying England teams playing away at under 1/2, regardless of all the experts in the world telling you this is a cakewalk against a terrible Welsh side. They seem to be overlooking the fact England are pretty terrible also. As we are already on Montenegro to win the group this is a doubling of our eggs in that basket to be honest, and an early England goal, followed by turning over to see Burren Legend pulled up, is a more likely scenario, but that's Saturday gambling.


So, something like:
£30 Burren Legend at 14/1+
£10 Briery Fox at 14/1+
back Wales and lay England so that your outcomes are something like:
Wales +£180
England -£50
Draw +90
£10 treble Semi-Colon/Burren Legend/Wales returns c£10000


Be lucky...

Midlands National

Well, that was a tough week. The bad news is that I lost the entire bank I'd allocated to the festival. The good news is that still leaves me with a good profit for the last couple of months. That's a big compliment to this type of staking, which you won't find in any gambling textbook. It certainly worked out better than any level staking system, and if I'd been using my old "part Kelly" approach I'd have been completely banjaxed. So, that's one advantage to good old part-time Saturday Gambling, and it could easily be incorporated into a full-time gambler's approach. Food for thought for the future.

In the meantime, let's get back on the horse at Uttoxeter today. Not my favourite race but Companero reappears at a a big price again. Now, obviously he all but died on his feet three weeks ago, loaning us our Cheltenham funds, so why would we want to go to the funeral today, especially on firmer ground. Well, because he's 25/1+ again. I'm not that interested in each way this time, given he is likely to be pulled up, and will supplement the bet with a couple of other bets now the favourite has been Pricewised down to 4/1. Tricky Trickster and Nicto De Beauchene look credible darts at a price.

So, something like
£25 win Companero 25/1+ (got 30s last night)
£15 win Tricky Trickster 14/1
£10 win Nicto de Beauchene 20/1


Ireland look backable at 7/4 to beat England in the rugby - they'll relish this one last battle. Usual England pricing reasons. May even get 2s closer to kick-off!


Be lucky...

Cheltenham - Friday

Been a bad one so far. The three bets of the day have: fallen when in last, pulled up when in last, and run like a drunkard who's just missed the last bus home.

I'm lucky today in that a lot of my bets are paid for by the doubles I have going on from Al Ferof - who must have won in a previous year so long ago it seems!

Triumph: I have a free double on Zarkander. Prefer Unaccompanied this morning so will go in again.

County: Should probably keep Alarazi onside after his bloodless win last weekend, but am looking further afield. Particularly like Soldatino for this - he loves the hill, and have a long-standing habit of backing James Fanshawe runners here so Spring Jim at 50/1 to cheer me up.

Bartlett: Have a free bet on Court in Motion, and will stick with that.

Gold Cup: Judgement day for Weird Al. And it would have to be weird to be honest. Still, if you're all on at 40/1 each way I hope we get a better run for our money this time. I have a free bet on Midnight Chase, though it's hard to think he's good enough, and at the prices this morning I'd have to say Imperial Commander looks a touch of value. His price could be down to knowledge that he's not right (much like how Hills and Lads went 3/1 early on Time for Rupert). It's possible though he's just not a public horse. Not many people backed him last year - just us! - and you'd imagine more tenners and scores going on Denman and Kauto Star for old time's sake.

Grand Annual: I have a free bet on Pigeon Island at 33/1 to repeat last year's little bit of joy, and I also like Oh Crick to roll back the years.


My new bets:
£25 win Unaccompanied
£15 ew Soldatino
£10 ew Spring Jim

Some doubles on the ones mentioned, and if need be singles on Imperial Commander and Oh Crick.


Be lucky...

Cheltenham - Thursday

Tough day yesterday. Beshabar, Rock On Ruby and Kumbeshwar were all kickings. When I was a pro obviously I watched all the key Irish races, but that study has been sadly lacking this year, and it's proving expensive. At least the staking isn't hurting!

Jewson: Bet of the day for me - Robinson Collonges was beating Wishfull Thinking giving weight, when he overjumped at Wincanton. Jumping is a worry but with Ruby to hand I think he should be much closer in price to the fave this morning.

Pertemps: Hope they keep hold of him a bit more than last year but the ground is perfect for Barwell Bridge to run another big race.

Ryanair: Impossible - doubts about the four main challengers, and indeed the rest of the field. I have a free bet on Kalahari King, so that'll do me for now, not that I like it much.

World Hurdle: Big Buck's at Evens is a mighty fine price for the big hitters. I can afford to leave it be.

Plate: The two who stand out for me are both pretty short - Quartz de Thai and Beautiful Sound - watching brief for now.

Fulke Walwyn: Mostly Bob was fancied for the RP chase before the rains came, and fell nice and early, so this could be much more likely. Also like Alderley Rover.


Something like;
£50 Robinson Collonges 7/1
£15ew Barwell Bridge 25/1
£15ew Mostly Bob 16/1
£10ew Alderley Rover 20/1
and make up some life-changing doubles/trebles to suit yourself.


Be lucky...

Cheltenham - Wednesday

Onwards.

I'm leaning towards horses with proven good/firm form after yesterday...

NH Chase - bunch of plodders with amateur pilots is usually a recipe for pandemonium. My darts land on Beshaber and Major Malarkey.

Neptune - Guessing the Irish are decent, but don't know which one, which leaves me with Tornado Bob at a big price.

RSA - my favourite race. Time For Rupert looks a shade of value. The Al Ferof win yesterday kicked off a load of free £30 doubles, one of which is the plodder The Giant Bolster at 25/1, which will do for me. I'll also back Wayward Prince.

Queen Mum - God help me with this one, but I'm going with Woolcombe Folly, who anyone with an ounce of sense can see is hopelessly overrated, but I'll go with my eyes, and in the hope Master Minded doesn't let himself down on the ground and Big Zeb doesn't jump as well as last year.


I'll play them all in some way, but hope the doubles can kick us into life:

10 x £5 doubles and a £5 life-changing acca
Beshaber 8/1
Tornado Bob 11/1
Time For Rupert 5/2
Woolcombe Folly 8/1
For Non Stop 7/1

Bet of the day - The Giant Bolster 20/1 each way.

Be lucky...

Cheltenham - Tuesday

A good thing about being a smaller staking gambler is that the bookies let you play and so we can take advantage of the great offers they've lined up.

Supreme - Cue Card is fairly priced. He'd certainly be shorter if trained by one of the bigger stables. The Paddy Power concession (money back if he wins) looks the way to go, and I've already done Al Ferof, Gibb River and Marsh Warbler against him.

Arkle - Boylesports's concession on the Channel 4 races of money back if 2nd is also a good one - and in fairly uncompetitive races as this appears, has appeal. I prefer Medermit to Finian's Rainbow, but he seems to struggle up the hill in the big races. Leaving Ghizao as the bet of the day.

Champion - Wide open. I do like Menorah a lot, but not at the price. I'm more drawn to Mille Chief (if acts on course) and Khyber Kim (if on a going day) at the prices.

Maljimar is an obvious bet in the X Country, so obvious everyone's tipped it this morning - probably go off favourite.

The rest is just for playing, can see Chief Dan George putting up a good defence of his title each way.

Let's say a bank of £200 for the day - putting our hard-earned profits at risk! Something like:

Ghizao £50 at 4/1 (money back if 2nd)

Gibb River 20/1
Ghizao 4/1
Chief Dan George 25/1
Mille Chief 14/1
Maljimar 6/1
10 x £3 doubles

Then Ghizao/Maljimar bankers with
Gibb River/Marsh Warbler/Chief Dan George/Mille Chief/Khyber Kim 5 x £4 trebles
and 4 x 50p get rich accas.

The other hundred to be spread around the later races, if the doubles aren't up and running.


Be lucky...

Cheltenham - Monday

I'll post all week. See if we can continue our amazing run of the last few weeks. At least I can afford a terrible week!

Firstly, Arsenal. I can't help thinking they are a big price at 2/1 to win the league. They have an easier run-in, and Man Utd are heavily involved on three fronts still (and a Man City semi-final isn't something they'll be allowed to soft-pedal). Of course you have to forgive Arsenal all their obvious failings, but 2/1+ seems an overreaction to a the horrible 8 days they've just had.

For Cheltenham, I've done a few vouchers of doubles trying to make myself rich with little effort. As usual I will no doubt have to offer these up in sacrifice to the gods of Cleeve Hill once the Champion hurdle is done and dusted on Tuesday.

I'll add a couple here.

Firstly, an each way double of The Giant Bolster and Weird Al.

Secondly, I think you should do an "Oh Bugger" voucher, of horses you're probably not going to focus on this year, but you have in the past, just in case they come back to haunt you. One horse each day for me - Maljimar, Somersby, Kalahari King and Imperial Commander.


So, something like.
Arsenal £50 Premiership at 2/1

£10 ew The Giant Bolster 16/1 and Weird Al 25/1

The four horses you're going to be most pissed off if they win, unbacked...
6 x £4 doubles and £6 fourfold


Be lucky...

Imperial Cup Sandown

Off to Crufts tomorrow. The racing is well missable with all of next week to look forward to, and no reason to go wasting money ahead of the big event.

The Imperial Cup is not a race I've ever had much success in, but given the profits of the last few weeks I felt obliged to go for another double-figure each way screamer, and my dart landed on Alarazi. The other credible challengers seemed priced on their trainers' records in this race as much as form, and 14/1 seemed a touch of value. That seems to have collapsed to 10/1 tonight - maybe Pricewise is afoot - and I haven't actually priced the race up so I can't say if 10/1 represents value. Up to you.

No get rich trebles today, but I'll be posting every day next week, so plenty of time for that. In the meantime, if you're quick, snap up the remaining 40/1 about Weird Al winning the Gold Cup. Regulars will know my feelings about this horse, and how disappointed I was after the Hennessey, but I still think he's up there with Long Run, Diamond Harry and Burton Port, and if it's time for the old greats to bow out, well it's worth a dream at that price.

So something like:
£25 ew Alarazi at 14/1 for me, below 10/1 I'd go win only.
£25 ew Weird Al, Gold Cup, 40/1 (33/1 ok).


Be lucky.

Saturday 5th March

One of those dull racing days before the real action unwinds. I'm not keen to fritter away all the profits I've built up over last few weeks, so will tread softly this week.

Newbury Greatwood Chase
Big Fella Thanks would be more interesting if I was able to predict whether Murphy is trying with him today. Which leaves me with Fine Parchment who we've been following for a while, and who remains feasibly handicapped. 14/1 and first four places (fingers crossed) looks ok, so let's make that the bet of the day.

The veterans chase is full of the usual dodge-pots. By the time I was finished crossing out I wasn't left with much, leaving Far More Serious as a tentative poke.

At Doncaster, Meanus Dandy comes out best on prices in a tricky race, though I'm not at all convinced he properly stays this trip. Let's hope he proves me wrong.


So, something like:
Fine Parchment £20ew at 14/1 (12s ok)
Far More Serious £10 win at 15/2
Meanus Dandy (if treble dead)£10 at 8/1
and the three in a £15 treble returning c£15000 - about time I had another 1000/1 treble!



Be lucky.

Saturday 26th Feb

Let's keep it simple today.

These two selections aren't remotely my usual sort of horses - they're both inconsistent and not in form - and so I'm also not sure why I'm going each way. The whole day could consist of watching two has-been horses being pulled up early - you've been warned. Still, one in the frame and we've saved our money.

Racing Post Chase
Not sure how much rain has fallen but I'm expecting softer ground than predicted and it may well have scuppered some of the more progressive horses, particularly Hobbs's pair. I expect Nacarat to run his usual game race and not be far away, but Razor Royale looks the one at the prices. He hasn't run too badly this year, and looks to have been targeting a repeat win here. I got 16/1 in the week, but 12s or better remains value on my tissue.


Eider Chase
Not my sort of race - slow, slow horses plodding home through the mud, with whichever horse deciding it's "travelling day" hanging on to win. Still, I kept looking at Companero. In terrible form, but nicely weighted if the blinkers wake him up. Big if, and he's weak this morning but at 20s+ to win and 6s to place worth a throw of the dice.


So, something like:
Razor Royale £25ew at 14/1
Companero £15 win at 20s+ and £15 place at 6/1
£10 ew double

and if you fancy £25000 how about a cheeky tenner fourfold
Razor Royale, Companero, West Ham and Sheffield Wednesday....!


Be lucky.

Saturday 19th February

I hope some of you were on yesterday's 1,2 in the Tote Trophy, held over from Saturday!

Today it's mainly fairly uncompetitive graded races - we'll throw some doubles at them and see if some stick.

Ascot 2:25 doesn't look very competitive - I crossed most of them out anyway - Royal Tune a legitimate favourite but Iconoclast looks a good price to give him a race.

Haydock 3:20 Pricewise skewing this towards topweights, but personally I'd be looking low in the mud. Nothing really comes out as a worthwhile bet by itself but two at nicer prices would be Major Malarkey and Sarde.

So, my £100 would look something like this:
Iconoclast £30 win at 10/1

Iconoclast 10/1
Riverside Theatre 7/4
Any Given Day 9/4
Sarde 14/1/Major Malarkey 10/1
Holmwood Legend 6/1
Mille Chief 7/4
30 x £2 doubles (ie £4 doubles on the 5 races, then £2 doubles with Sarde and MM)
2 x £5 accas paying at least £80000. That should do it!



West Brom look too short tomorrow...

Saturday 12th Feb

Boy, this year's Tote Trophy looks wide open. To be honest I think I've let weight sway me the most price-wise and so have ended up with these three darts:
Recession Proof - despite inexperience.
Bothy - and hope the ground is soft enough.
Final Approach - ticks all the trends boxes and I had him in as slight fave.

Fine Parchment, a non runner for us a couple of week ago, goes in a lesser race at Warwick. At the price we'd best play.

Football - it's another week where some possible draws leap off the page - with derbies and relegation matches to the fore.

So, something like:
Recession Proof £15 at 16/1
Bothy £15 at 18/1
Final Approach £15 at 10/1
6 x £1 forecasts

Fine Parchment £20 at 10/1

Man Utd/Birmingham/West Brom £10 all draws
add Fulham draw Monday for a £10 fourfold

and for the treble
Noland/Fine Parchment/Recession Proof £10 to return £20000



Be lucky...

Saturday 5th February

Right, I've covered Sandown so that you don't have to!

2:25 Wide open - I like Medermit, but not at the price against this lot. Captain Chris would have been a possible but for Pricewise killing the value. Hidden Keel probably isn't good enough, but he's the only one I priced up shorter than we can get.

3:00 These big field handicap hurdles aren't my thing these days. However, I do like Like A Hurricane down the bottom, on a day when Alan King's could go well. Kilcrea Kim also looks solid, as of course does the favourite. I priced Like A Hurricane at 5s, which looks a bit over the top, but that's going to be my bet of the day.

3:35 Take The Breeze looks a crazy price (whenever I say this they win easily). I'd much rather have Khachutarian or Leading Contender. That said, those two combined at around 7/4 isn't appealing either.

4:10 Alan King lands the treble with Call Me A Legend and we all go home happy. Well, it's not impossible! I don't like much else in this race, and if I need to chase to get my £100 back I could do worse than here.


As for the rest of the sport, how about three unfathomable upsets. Wolves, Italy and Scotland. I can't actually see any of them happening, let alone all three, but I could see all matches being tight for a long time. Trading opportunities, or handicap ones in the rugby for those playing at shorter odds, but us Saturday Gamblers prefer shooting for the stars, and there has to be some fun at 340/1 the treble.


So, something like:
Like A Hurricane £30 at 10/1
Like a Hurricane/Kilcrea Kim £2.50 combination exacta

Hidden Keel £15 at 10/1

Medermit/Like A Hurricane/Call Me A Legend £20 treble returns £4000+

Hidden Keel; Kilcrea Kim/Like A Hurricane; Khachaturian/Leading Contender; Call Me A Legend: - 4 x £5 fourfolds - returns £13000+

Italy/Scotland/Wolves £10 returns £3400


Be lucky...

Saturday 29th January

Was all set to give you the 1,2,3 in Doncaster's Sky Bet chase! Oh well...

I'm liking the look of the outsiders in the 2m5f chase at Cheltenham today. If you forgive his last run in the mud at Chepstow, then Fine Parchment looks a sporting each way bet today at 20/1. You also have to forgive current stable form, but I'll make him the cornerstone of the day. The Sawyer will be trained for this as well, and with doubts about many of these, I'll do a small saver.

I can't get excited about the Argento. Not least because I was going to put a cheeky tenner on The Tother One midweek, when he was trading at 70s on betfair, but decided he just couldn't be running...

Some nice-looking matches for draw betting in the FA cup, have attracted me instead.

So, something like:

Fine Parchment £25ew at 20/1
The Sawyer £10 at 20/1
£2.50 reverse forecast

£10 Treble returning £13000+
Fine Parchment 20/1
The Tother One 7/1
Southampton 7/1

Football 4 x £5 trebles and £5 acca - all draws:
Everton/Chelsea
Southampton/Man Utd
Wolves/Stoke
Fulham/Spurs


Be lucky.

Saturday 22nd January

I thought I had some nice bets this morning but the weather has done its worst...

The more I look at the Victor Chandler the more I think I'm wasting my time. I'll probably shove a tenner on Gauvain (20/1) and Mad Max (14/1) and watch Master Minded stroll home. The race includes three horses that have been in my metaphysical stable in the past - Somersby, Kalahari King and Crackaway Jack - and that's another reason not to get heavily involved.

So, we're going to have an old-fashioned doubles day. Haven't had one of those for ages, and they're just the thing for a Saturday gambler looking for some interest over the day.

First off, Wincanton, and the meeting sponsored by the same people who sponsor Paul Nicholls' yard. He likes to give them a few winners, and although none of them look up to much today, it could be that the conditional jockey and Nicholls' apparent poor form may hold the prices up enough at guaranteed best odds, to make it worthwhile.

Next, the Premiership. Draws have been the way to go all season (I wish they had been that season I built an expensive system round them). Last week we had a nice 33/1 return on a draw treble, and whilst this week the bets aren't so obvious, I'll happily go in again.

So, Wincanton
Bold Addition/Promising Anshan/That'll Do/Symphonick/Ramses de Marcigny
10 x £4.50 doubles and £3 acc.
£2 acc the first four plus his second string Cap Elora in the last race.

Football
10 x £4.50 draws and £5 acca
Wolves/Liverpool
Blackpool/Sunderland
Fulham/Stoke
Newcastle/Spurs
Villa/Man City


Be lucky.

King George

Kauto Star looks about the right price today, which doesn't give us much of a way into the race. I'm not interested in backing him, nor strongly opposing him. The places do look up for grabs though, with doubts about lots of these, not least in the conditions.

At the prices the two I'll take each way are Riverside Theatre and Madison Du Berlais. Riverside has to handle the ground and stay, but given his course record and the impression he made on me last year, 16/1 is at least fair. Madison Du Berlais has shown he can make a place in this race, and just needs a return to form to make 40/1 look generous. My friend who snaffled up 20/1 on him mid-week each way w/out Kauto Star has a nice bet, but that's sadly long since gone.


There's three Premiership derbies on Sunday. Can't stop myself doing the treble...

Riverside Theatre 20ew at 16/1
Madison Du Berlais 20ew at 40/1
Liverpool/Sunderland/Birmingham £10 treble all matches drawn.
2 x £5 fourfolds the above.


Be lucky...

Welsh National

I haven't done very well in this race over the years - you've been warned. When I lived in Bristol I used to go every year in the days when Martin Pipe farmed the race and even then I'd back two of his and the third one would win - you've been warned.

On my prices (where Synchronised looks very short) I'll go for three and hope the odds cover their rather obvious deficiencies:

Watamu Bay - inexperience and an already high rating - but it's not often you get to back a Nicholls improver at 12/1 in a race like this.
Imoncloudnine - liked the way he stayed on in Badger Ales - and softer ground no problem. Would be keener if it was a flat track.
Old Benny - obviously taking a flyer here on the old boy, but 25/1 off ten stone...

Once I looked at Old Benny I couldn't help but notice Oh Crick at Sandown and so today's double is for the Alan King old-timers to roll back the years! And a friend of a friend owns Kudu Country - he won't be at Sandown to watch him, and is hardly looking to hit one out of the ballpark, but what the hell I'll go for a fiver glory treble...




Something like:
Watamu Bay £25 at 12/1
Imoncloudnine £15 at 20/1
Oh Benny £15 at 25/1

Oh Benny/Oh Crick £10 double
Oh Benny/Oh Crick/Kudu Country £5 treble returns £28000



Be lucky...

Montenegro

What with travelling and the weather and all, I doubt I'll even bet on the King George and Welsh National, let alone be able to post on here.

So, my Christmas present to you all is to point out that Montenegro are still 9/1 to top their group. Which just goes to show how much I move the markets these days as I've been banging on about it since October!

They top the group, unbeaten, yet to concede, and drew with us without their best players. There's obvious "England" reasons why the price is too long - hype, liabilities, and patriotism - as well as a general disbelief that the lowest-rated country can be doing so well.

I think they should be closer to 4/1 personally (which of course makes them unlikely winners). What it is, is a good old-fashioned value bet, with the added bonus of acting as an insurance bet in case England do indeed cock up....


So, my present to myself this Christmas is another £60 Montenegro 9/1.


.

Strictly Come Dancing

There's not much else to get stuck into today!

Midweek Matt Baker was 6/4 to win. In the good old days I'd have been amassing the tanks and going all in. This Wednesday I scraped together the last £36.41 in my Betfair account. What a difference a couple of years makes.

He's now 4/5 after the Specials' Boys have got stuck in. Still, that's fair. To be honest I'd have him winning this at least 7 times out of 10 from here. Blue Peter, Countryfile and The One Show give Matt the perfect middle England profile for this show; he has a big voting advantage being the only man; and will throw in some gymnastics to get some 10s from the judges, who have been over-marking Kara and Pamela for weeks to ensure they reach the final. A "respected source" believes he got 50% of the votes last week, and if so, this is a cakewalk, not that it pays to believe too many "respected sources" when it comes to reality TV.

My only gripe about Matt is that I've been waiting all series for him to do a dance to his own song, Boney M's loving tribute "Ma, ma, ma, ma, Matt Baker..." I hope he's saving it for his victory parade....

I have Pamela for top female and I haven't given up on that either - not judging by my wife's frenzied voting last week. I wouldn't put anyone off a sneaky tenner on the straight forecast, but let's not dilute the bet here.

(Matt could drift to evens or better during the show, it may be worth keeping an eye on it. I'm on paella duty so won't bother).

Matt Baker £100 at 4/5


Be lucky...

Saturday 12th December

11:40 Woolcombe Folly is progressive but shouldn't really be so much shorter than I'm Delilah. The latter is of course dependent on Ferdy Murphy, so the market will probably tell you all you need to know. 9/1 guaranteed seems too big to me though.

12:45 Time for Rupert should win, but I'll let him at the price. Robo might be worth a speculative fiver at 20/1+

1:20 Very difficult race. I think Karabak is just about the best of these, but Restless Harry is the one that's probably a touch long, even with Pricewise's stamp of approval.

1:55 Prices probably about right. Master Minded hard to back these days with any confidence, but I can't plump for one to oppose him with. I like Gauvain, and Somersby, though latter seems to be in the wrong race, and excuses are running thin for my old favourite Kalahari King. Tricky.

2:30 An easy race for us. We stick with Little Josh, even though 6/1 is probably the right price, in the hope he does a Senor El Betrutti, and put a few quid on Pigeon Island at 50/1 just in case.

3:05 Cue Card gets his big test. Having backed him at 90/1 in the bumper I'm happy to let him win unbacked at 2/1!


I'll probably over-stake during the day, but £100 could look like this:

I'm Delilah £25 at 9/1
Little Josh £30 at 13/2
Pigeon Island £10 at 50/1
(and 2.50 rev forecast)

£10 ew double Somersby/Calgary Bay
£5 treble I'm Delilah/Restless Harry/Gauvain
£2.50 accas above three + Little Josh/Pigeon Island


Be lucky...

Friday 10th December

A Friday bonus.

Looks tough, but I'll throw some darts anyway.

The novice chase looks a cracker as always here. Wishfull Thinking looked beaten last time when Robinson Collonges fell, and will struggle to carry penalty against Spirit River, but he was tanking along that day and looks like he'll make the grade. Seems too weak this morning.

RavetheBrave and Regal Approach have to improve but look progressive and unexposed and there's plenty of dead wood here. Prices look fair enough.

Midnight Chase surely will go close again - looks a track specialist - but at the prices I'll have to go for two somewhat iffy horses - Bet The Boys with Murphy back on board, and Forest Pennant, if the fast pace suits.

Wishfull Thinking £20 at 9/1+
RavetheBrave £20 at 10/1
Regal Approach £20 at 9/1
and £2.50 rev forecast
Beat The Boys £10 at 20/1
Forest pennant £10 at 20/1
and £2.50 rev forecast
4 x £5 trebles.

Saturday 4th December

Saturday Gamblers need action, we've been waiting all week to get stuck in!

But god knows what into.

Luckily, I had £50 on England in the cricket midweek so I'll count that as half my ammo for the week, and chuck the rest around.

Imprimus Tagula will carry our money in the 2:55 at Southwell at 11/2. Both Pricewise and Corals main odds compiler pick it, and that is the full extent of my form study! It's that sort of day.

The rest can go on the football, looking to see if the big clubs can continue to be as useless as they have been lately. The odds are terrible, and it's a shame the Blackpool game is off, but let's go for the fun and glory on Bolton, Everton, Birmingham and include Villa on Monday, as the bet running on there would warm the weekend up!

Imprimus Tagula £20 at 11/2
Everton, Bolton, Birmingham and Villa
6 x £4.5 doubles
£3 acca pays c.£4000

.

Saturday 27th November

What a great race the Hennessey promises to be.

I cheered Denman all up the straight last year without even having had a bet on him, so I'd be delighted for the three timer. But he's more like an 8/1 shot in my book. This despite the fact he could have blown this field apart by the time they reach the cross fence. It'll be particularly interesting to see which of the young pretenders can go the gallop and still jump soundly.

Weird Al's been in my cyber-stable since his first outing, so I'm feeling a bit like a nervous owner myself this morning. The price isn't value, but I've always believed in having a couple of horses to follow blindly, and I'll be betting with my heart on this one.

On price I keep coming back to the horses proven in grade one company, running off such low weights. Madison Du Berlais and Neptune Collonges have both dropped in the ratings and a return to form has to put them in the mix. But the one I've looked at all week is Taranis. He won this blog a fortune a few years ago as the middle leg of a treble when winning the Ryanair, so there's a little love in there, but if he travels and stays as well as he did last time out, he has to have a better chance than the prices.

So:

£60 Weird Al at 7/1 (and may drift badly this afternoon)
£30 Taranis (I'm on at 14/1+ but 12/1 still fair).
£3.50 rev exacta Taranis/Neptune Collonges
50p combination trifecta the above three.

And to get rich quick how about:
£10 Stormy Weather/Taranis/Just Smudge returns £17000+




.

Saturday 20th November

Strange day today - there's plenty of racing to want to watch, but bets not exactly flying off the page.

All the graded races look to be priced Ok - each with a short priced favourite I wouldn't want to back at the prices, but their only credible opponents are similarly short-priced second favourites. I'll watch.

So, we're left with three tricky small-field chase handicaps.

Haydock 1:15
Pace duel up front there probably. Judging by Wincanton Tara Royal may not be able to keep up, which leaves Gringo to improve on his run at Kelso last time.
7/2 is a fair price, if an unexciting one.


Haydock 2:20
Wogan is very likeable and 4/1 is longer than my tissue (3/1). I was sniffy about some of these, which left me with Dance Island as value also at 12/1.


Ascot 3:10
Be watching to see if Noble Alan gets home over 2m1f here, as he's looked a short runner before to me. Woolcombe Folly looks the one, but again 3/1 is only fair.


Tomorrow's Becher Chase is more my cup of tea. However, again I seem to be drawn to the favourite, Maljimar. I'll put him in some accas today, and hope I don't have to bet again tomorrow!!


So, something like:
Gringo £25 at 7/2
Wogan £20 at 4/1 and Dance Island £10 at 12/1
Woolcombe Folly £25 at 3/1

Gringo/Wogan/W Folly £10 to return £750ish
Gringo/Dance Island/W Folly £5 to return £1000ish
Gringo/Wogan/W Folly/Maljimar £10 to return £6500ish
Gringo/Dance Island/W Folly/Maljimar £5 to return £8500ish

And assuming we're not sat on a fat voucher I'll go £40 Maljimar best price tomorrow...


Be lucky...

Thursday 18th November

A few prices that look too long, for you to do what you like with. I can't afford to tie much money up long-term unfortunately, but will do some modest trebles or something.

The Weekender put up a good case for Madison Du Berlais and Neptune Collonges for the Hennessey yesterday. Obviously I'm a Weird Al fan and don't expect to desert him, but 5/1 is in no way a value bet, and I'm a bit disturbed to read that he finished distressed at Carlisle. The two old timers meanwhile have been dropped massively in the weights and could certainly bounce back. 16/1 was still available about both this morning, and it may be worth getting them on-side at least.

We backed Maljimar for the National last Spring despite stamina worries, and he was cantering when he fell. Which makes him noteworthy for the Becher chase and I'll be surprised if he doesn't form a part of my weekend portfolio...

Montenegro remain 9/1 to win Group G, and as long as they do I suggest all long-term get rich trebles should include them!

France last night looked to have shrugged off the shackles of Domenech. That leaves them with a lot of quality. 2012's a long way off, but 12/1 or better could plump up your returns nicely, if you can wait that long!

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Saturday 13th November

I'm only interested in the Mackeson today:

And for me two horses stand out on price this morning. Neither of them surprising to regulars.

Firstly, Pigeon Island at 22/1 ew first 5 places, or longer win only on betfair.
Pigeon Island landed us a small fortune in March, as the second leg of a double with Imperial Commander. So I'm hardly likely to abandon him now. As then, the key to him is a fast pace over this course, where he can sit at the back and pounce late. The trip doesn't bother me, and the light weight is a big bonus for a small horse. Admittedly he jumps pretty terribly, which is a worry for each way backing, but the price more than compensates for that.

I'm backing him up with Little Josh. He ran a cracker against Weird Al the other week, and we know how highly I regard him. There's tons of pace in this race on paper, which is going to be a problem for him, and I don't see him as an each way proposition. Better to grab some of the late 30s on betfair, and I'd suggest putting up a lay to recover the stake and a bit more, at an ungreedy price - 7s say.

Something like:
Pigeon Island £50 win/£25 place at 22/1 - first 5 places
Little Josh £25 win at 30ish
£2.50 reverse forecast the two.
£10 double Pigeon Island/Manyriverstocross (Greatwood hurdle tomorrow) returns £1600
£5 double Little Josh/Manyriverstocross (returns c. £1000)
£10 treble Pigeon Island/Manyriverstocross/Weird AL (Hennessey) returns £10000+


Be lucky...

Saturday 6th November

Stan James seem to have abandoned best odds guaranteed in favour of standing top price on those they fancy drifting - which is pretty much all of my picks today, so that's where I've gone.

1:15 Sandown
If you saw Pepe Simo jump first time out you have to take him on at odds-on, whatever the word from the yard is....this is Sandown after all.

2:20 Sandown
Songe has a favourite's chance. Bible Lord catches the eye - this is the time to get him, as it was last year, and he's fairly handicapped. Looking at Corals prices they agree. I put him in at 4s. Will play at 5s.

2:40 Kelso
Kalahari King should be able to give the weight to Noble Alan, but the market rather says it all. He was one of my favourite horses the other year but has let himself down since. I think I'll sit it out, though I expect I'll be suckered in if he gets any longer!

2:45 Wincanton
Wishful Thinking could be a good horse this year, and is probably fairly priced if you forgive his fall. It's the relative prices of the other two I don't get. Tara Royal was favourite ahead of Robinson Collonges previously and one race shouldn't lead to such a disparity between the two. Tara Royal at 7s looks a sporting bet.

3:20 Wincanton
Wide open contest. I respect the Nicholls runners without liking them much, certainly not at the prices. Ellerslie George was impressive in this last year, and though he's run like a dog since, is back on the right rating in first time blinkers. I'd hoped for longer than 14/1 but it's worth a tickle. And I'll chuck in Irish Raptor as well, 22/1 seems generous.

Something like:
£20 win Fahrisee 3/1
£20 win Bible Lord 5/1
£20 win Tara Royal 7/1
£15 win Ellerslie George 14/1
£10 win Irish Raptor 22/1
£9 fourfold with Ellerslie George returns 27000
£6 fourfold with Irish Raptor returns 28000


Be lucky...

Saturday 30th October

Well, here we go. I've had an old-fashioned morning with the top races and a tissue marker pen!

The Charlie Hall looks fairly-priced. I'd love to back Knockara Beau but have sworn off as long as that sack of spuds is riding him. The Tother One looks like the one with least negatives, but I'll pass.

2:40 Ascot
A few front runners. I priced From Dawn to Dusk as a 6/1 shot, which is obviously wrong (a rusty morning!), but I guess that's where my money's going.

4:50 Ascot
Sizing Africa seems very weak this morning - drifting to a nice price, but that's a phrase that's damned near bankrupted me over the last couple of years, so caution advised. Panjo Bere has a ton on off topweight, but does like the track, and that counts for a lot here. I think I'll see how the market shapes up closer to the off.

2:35 Newmarket
Not a rational bet, but I've been disappointed by The Cheka all season, but Fallon back in the place means I'll give him one more small chance.

I'm not sure about staking for this new Saturday fun - I think I'll work round £100 a day rather than a fund and see where I am around Xmas time.

From Dawn to Dusk £40 at 10/1
The Cheka £20 at 9/1
£10 treble From Dawn to Dusk/The Cheka/Panjo Bere (returns £18500)
and save £30 for that Ascot race.

And finally, here's a value bet.
Montengro to win Group G at 9/1. Top of group, not even conceded a goal, and drew with us away without their best players. Hype, liabilities and patriotism are keeping this price wrong - I'd go closer to 4/1. And at worst it's a good insurance bet against England cocking up again...


.

Back to Basics

Oh well, trading didn't work out.

The problem was it's so bloody boring. My patience and discipline couldn't cope with it, plus I found myself hating the very sports that made me a professional gambler in the first place.

So, that's me full-circle. After 10 years I'm going right back to the start and settling on being a Saturday Gambler all over again. Hopefully that way, I'll get back to enjoying it, and enjoying the sports I'm betting on, and who knows get back to the sort of success that set me on the journey in the first place. The only down-side is having to go back to the corporate world, though even that should make me appreciate my free days more..

So, if anyone stumbles by seeing if I'm still posting, I'll put some good old-fashioned bets up on Saturdays and big race days, for the fun of it...

Thursday 19th August

Dirar staunched the flow so far yesterday.

I've got Snow Fairy in at 9/4 today - so a drifting 10/3 looks too big. In the old days I'd be massing the tanks.

Instead:

Capponi/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
Suruor/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
Balcarce Nov/Meeznah/Snoqualmie Girl
3 x £5ew trebles.

Wednesday 18th August

Hopeless yesterday, (as was my trading - particularly going low on goals in the Spurs game!)


Illustrious Blue/Shropshire/Darley Sun
£10 treble.

(maybe add Topmokea and Dirar to the mix to suit).

Tuesday 17th August

Let's play York this week.


Harris Tweed/Jakalberry/Almiqdaad £8 treble returns £25000ish

Cavalryman/Jakalberry/Cutlass Bay 6 x £2 forecasts.

Thursday 12th August

Fair Trade looks a backable price this afternoon at Salisbury. Although he's yet to show it I'm fairly sure he's as good as Hearts of Fire and that's favourite. I've taken 16s but 12s still worth a dabble.

As for the USPGA:
Ogilvy 120s
Charles Howell 300s+
Kevin Na (!) 300s+
Leishman 400s+
Matteson 500s+
and Gregory Bourdy 700s+
form my small team of no hopers!

.

The Curse of Pricewise

The last three horses I've had decent single bets on (and marked up on here), have all also been Pricewise selections. (I arrived at my conclusions separately!)

What a poisoned chalice this is.

Music Show early price 10/1. I got 8/1. SP 6/1 (I think)
Illustrious Blue early price 11/1. I got 9/1. SP 8/1(or shorter)
Evens and Odds early price 33/1. I got 25/1. SP 20/1

That's at least 12 points his recommendation has cost me (I'd have thought without his recommendation I could have got better than early odds on betfair), and 20 points it's cost a mug punter with a lucky pin.

There's a twist though. I don't have the data to back this assertion up, but I have noticed it for the last couple of years. If Pricewise selections continue to be backed through the day to go off at the sort of prices shown above, they may well run well and win, or indeed sometimes badly. If however the horse drifts back out before the off to the original Pricewise price, or even bigger, the horse WILL NOT win.

Just felt like sharing that...

Saturday 31st July

Illustrious Blue was fun, but it's been a bleak Goodwood other than that.

£10 double Strawberydaquiri and Evens and Odds
£4 acc Stoute/Moore
£6 combined foecast (total) Nicholls three runners in Stewards Cup

Thursday 29th July

Having a miserable Goodwood so far.

Am keen on Illustrious Blue today, I have to say. 10/1 looks more than fair.

If I had to put him in a treble (which I obviously do)
Illustrious Blue
Starfish Bay
Myplacelater
£10 to win £7500ish

Saturday 24th July

Let's have a fire-up at Ascot.

£20 double Suruor and Daryakana returns say £5k

£10 treble adding Pegasus Again returns say £20k

Saturday 17th July

Golf just about Ok so far...some nice green and some manageable red.

A tenner at the racing:
Move in Time; Snoqualmie Girl and King of Reason £10 treble returns say £11000


.

Wednesday 14th July

My golf bets are somewhat predictable.

Woods 7/1 just has to be kept on-side.
I like Paul Lawrie to be top scotsman (not exactly a deep field)

and for get rich quick purposes:
Paul Lawrie first round leader £10 150/1
and of course Kevin Na £10 at 900/1 (be rude not to)!

Saturday 10th July

For our Saturday get rich quick madness how about:

Demolition (probably over-exposed but can't ignore the team)
Uruguay (betting on friendlies is for idiots)
World cup final goes to penalties (getting poor here - can't believe there's only been one shoot-out all tournament)
£30 treble returns £11000+



.

Wednesday 7th July

Midweek golf madness. (Ryan Moore second last week - not much good to me!)

JB Holmes and Bubba Watson £5ew double £9000+


Newmarket - I can see why Pricewise has gone for Music Show - this is her last chance - but the stiff finish can only help her here.

How about £10 treble Pastoral Player/Music Show and tonight's game to go to penalties - say £7500

.

Tuesday 6th July

Let's go for £20 on both the semis to be decided on penalties - returns upwards of £550.


.

Saturday 3rd July

Sorry folks, can't find a long-priced treble to waste a tenner on today - not yet anyway!


.

Wednesday 30th June

Midweek golf madness:

£5ew double Gregory Havret and Ryan Moore, returns at least £12000


.

Tuesday 29th June

I think I'll repeat a football bet of a few days ago, and hope it's slightly more successful!

Portugal 0-0 and Japan 0-0 (or no goalscorer)
£10 double returns £550.

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Sunday 27th June

Obviously, you have to keep Germany winning on penalties on-side at times like this.

In the Irish Derby none of the main protagonists appeal. Puncher Clynch has as good form as most of them, so 20/1 is a no-brainer.

And Mexico could give Argentina a, probably fruitless, run for their money.

£10 double Puncher Clynch/Germany win on penalties returns £2000
£10 treble German draw/Mexico draw.Puncher Clynch returns £2350
£10 treble Puncher Clynch/Germany penalties/Mexico returns £14000

Saturday 26th June

These knock-out games should see the world cup get even cagier.

£10 double both games today 0-0 (or no goalscorer) returns £450
£10 treble the above plus Rajik wins Northumberland Plate (for fun!) returns c£7500

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Saturday 19th June

Mix the football and racing up for today's silly strikes.

Medicean Man
Munsef
Ghana
Holland
Denmark
£15 acca returns £16000

The same but Denmark draw
£10 acca returns £14000

Friday 18th June

Golfers doing Ok - early days...

Horses - hopeless. I've shut up shop at Ascot for the week, and will just do these "get rich quick" bets in case my notebook horses all win without me!

Bullet Train
Music Show
Mikhail Glinka
£25 win treble returns £3800

£5 five fold the above three and
Slovenia/USA
Serbia/Germany
to be draws returns £9000

.

Thursday 17th June

Two nice priced second places yesterday - not that I was each way !

The Gold Cup has me looking at outsiders.
Bannaby, Purple Moon and Darley Sun would all have chances better than their odds suggest to my eyes. Forecasts maybe.

Prior to that let's do three £10 trebles hoping to put us in position A
Dinkum Diamond/Principal Role and the above three.


And I'm sure you're desperate to know which golfers to avoid this week.
I simply can't let Woods go unbacked at 10/1 and have added Dustin Johnston and KJ Choi to the mix.

Wednesday 16th June

I've hardly watched flat racing this year - only the top races. This disengagement showed yesterday when I failed to get to grips with Ascot at all.

You've been warned. AT least Pricewise is keen on a couple of my notebook horses today.

Meezan
Glass Harmonium
Riggins
Blue Maiden (one last chance with Fallon back on)
4 x £8 trebles
1 x £3 acc

Tuesday 15th June

Have to aim a few guns at Ascot...


Dalghar and Gold Trail both look nicely priced.
£20 double returns £3000
£5 treble Makfi returns £2750
£5 treble Siyouni returns £5250


.

Monday 14th June

How about a lack of goals today.

Japan/Cameroon and Italy/Paraguay £10 no goal scorer double - returns say £500

And a Gold Cup ante post tickle £15 Bannaby 33/1

And the treble £5 returning £8800 (say).

Saturday 12th June

I suppose I'd best throw a couple of long-shot darts at the football, in between trading, which I hope I do better than I did on France game last night!

Altidore top goalscorer £5 500/1
There's a chance USA could travel a fair way into the tournament.

Di Natale/Italy £5 300/1
Much nicer price than the sexy selections...

Wednesday 9th June

Mid-week golf madness.

I'm following Steve Palmer's headline choices this week, so hardly original!

Brian Gay 28/1
Ignacio Garrido 25/1
£15 each way double.

Friday 4th June

Or my 22nd wedding anniversary!

The derby/oaks trials all looked pretty miserable. Just afterwards a couple of listed races at Goodwood caught the eye, so how about a sneaky double on those two, and then mix things up a bit.

£10 Snow Fairy/Rewilding
£10 treble Snow Fairy/Sariska/Rewilding
£5ew double Meeznah/Ted Spread

Monday 31st May

Bank Holiday Mondays are mugpunter doubles days, and todays lucky jockey is Paul Hanagan at Carlisle.

15 x £3 doubles
£2 acc.

Saturday 29th May

Rain, and pretty solid short priced horses in the listed races, so I can't even muster the enthusiasm for a cheeky racing treble today.

(It's a shame I didn't post up the mug punter doubles I had on Fallon at Ayr midweek - that would have wiped out the losses on here...)

Forgive me, but I'll stick to trading the tennis and the play-off final.

Wednesday 26th May

The midweek golf madness hasn't gotten much beyond the first round the last few weeks. Hardly likely to change this week!

Oliver Fisher 80/1
Justin Rose 80/1
£5ew double

Monday 24th May

Anyone looking for a bet on the tennis - I've been impressed with Aravane Rezai the last few weeks. She has a great draw to the final, if she can get past Venus, and she beat her comfortably enough just over a week ago.

Saturday 22nd May

I'm off to Oxford for a break, so having done my £2 Scoop6 certainty I'll just do a few doubles and trebles on the better races today and tomorrow.

(a) Fencing Master 5/1
(b) Aajel 7/2
(c) Music Show 4/1
(d) Blue Maiden 28/1
(e) Blue Jack 11/2

ac £10 double for £290
ab £10 double for £270
ad £10 double for £1730
abc £10 treble for £1340
bce £10 treble for £1400
bde £5 treble for £4200
abce £5 quad for £4300
abde £5 quad for £25000

Wednesday 19th May

Mid-week golf madness surpasses itself this week.

Stephen Dodd 100/1 (or 90/1)
Rory Sabbatini 40/1
£5ew - to return let's say £20k



And let's do a classics treble - though I'm far from sure all three will turn up let alone win! (I'll hold off doing doubles for that reason).

Blue Maiden Irish 1000 20/1
Akdarena Oaks 12/1
Workforce Derby 12/1
£10 treble returning £35k

Saturday 15th May

I'm keen on The Cheka each way today, and keep looking for other eac way opportunities for the doubles but am struggling...

Friday 14th May

The Division 1 and 2 play-offs, first legs. £10 four fold returning £1200


Today's racing.
Inler
Manifest
Fatanah
£15 treble returning £1200
plus Crackentorp
£5 four fold returning £4600

Thursday 13th May

Another York treble today.

I like the 7/1 about Flying Cloud - the front two are probably taking too much out of the market with Midday's penalty a big minus, and Sariska unlikely to be suited by small field pace of race over this distance.

I'll add Chabal (rock solid Sandown run) and Rainbow Peak (proverbial group horse in a handicap).

£25 to return around £2500

Wednesday 12th May

Tennis bet didn't last long yesterday!

I think we can skip the golf this week, and have a modest tenner treble at York instead.

Tartan Gunna
Avite
Mullionmilenhour
to return, say £3000.

Tuesday 11th May

Fancy wasting a tenner on the Madrid Masters Tennis?


Murray 28/1 (or 33s)
Martinez-Sanchez 40/1 (or 33s)
£5ew double

Saturday 8th May

Some doubles etc to stop me getting stuck into the racing.

Lingfield
Golden Stream 5/1
Ceilidh House 11/4
Bullet Train 11/4
£10 win treble

The Big Handicaps
Love of Tara 20/1
Dandy Boy 16/1
Ciceron 10/1
£5ew treble

and 15 x £2 doubles the 6 horses.

Friday 7th May

Small Chester trebles for interest.

Suruor/Prompter/Harbinger £10 treble
Suruor/Prompter/Once More Dubai £5 treble

Wednesday 5th May

Mid-week golf madness, with a hint of Chester.

Harrington 28/1/Desert Sea 12/1 £10ew double

Harrington 28/1/Colsaerts 55/1 £5ew double

Sunday 3rd May

Flat racing has so much wrong with it right now:

It's always had it's main problem - the horses are only around for five minutes before they become stud/hurdlers/dogmeat/glue. It's hard to come to care about any of the horses, and the endless waves of new horses make it unusual to find races where you know the nuances of all the horses (unlike jumps racing).

It's also always had uncommunicative trainers. However, for the last couple of years Paul Nicholls and a few others have shown us what we should reasonably expect from the likes of Stoute and O'Brien. Their apparent deep-seated antipathy towards me as a punter has led eventually to a deep-seated antipathy towards them from me.

Add to the mix an unending summer diet of tight, moderate, handicaps of around 10 runners where it's impossible to keep on top of the form, or to care about any of the horses.

Garnish with clerks overwatering, seemingly under instructions to make the above races even more unfathomable, either by providing false ground, or by messing with draw biases.

And yesterday the icing on the cake. The 1000 Guineas, a Classic for fuck's sake, had a 15 length draw bias only a handful of jockeys seemed to know about.

The Derby was the first race I ever went to. The 2000 Guineas the first race on which I had a proper man-sized bet. Now I find I just can't be bothered with it. Sad.

Sunday 2nd May

I have a modest place double running onto Blue Maiden which I could do with landing after slightly too busy a week chasing big wins!

I'll add a couple of tenners today.

A "value" tissues/ratings fourfold:
£10 Blue Maiden/Fulham/Liverpool/Sunderland - £16k+

And a "sky-blue thinking" waste of money:
£10 Blue Maiden/No goalscorer Liverpool Chelsea/Darren Bent first goalscorer - 17k+


I remain keen on Blue Maiden each way at around 20s. I seem to be entirely alone on this!

Saturday 1st May

I'll probably watch/trade the football and tennis and avoid getting dragged into flat racing today. So I'll top up on the defensive/interest bets.

Fencing Master looks the last remaining horse at value in the 2000 Guineas (plus possibly Awzaan). The Dewhurst form has been franked this season, and given his inexperience and trip in that race you'd think he'd have every chance of stepping up considerably on that.

£10 ew double Fencing Master 14/1 and Blue Maiden 25/1

Fencing Master 14/1
Halicarnassus 10/1 (personally priced him up much shorter despite not fancying)
Horseradish 4/1
3 x £5 doubles and £10 treble

Friday 30th April

I've added a couple more nonsensical Guineas doubles!

An Andrew Balding special:
Lord Zenith 100/1 and Pipette 33/1 £5ew double

and topped up the Blue Maiden portfolio:
Viscount Nelson 40/1 and Blue Maiden 25/1 £5ew double


The golf bets are already blown to pieces...

Wednesday 28th April

Midweek golf madness is back!

Steve Palmer makes a good case for Adam Scott this week, and Kjeldsen likes the Spanish course, and Oliver Fisher did me an each way favour last week.

Scott 50/1/Kjeldsen 18/1 £5ew double
Scott 50/1/O Fisher 30/1 £5ew double


I was going to do a treble at Ascot to stop me getting involved, but a non runner has reduced it to a paltry double.
£20 win Mojave Moon 13/2 and Mon Cadeaux 11/2


£40 staked

Monday 26th April

Let's do some Guineas doubles, with Stan James going "non runner no bet".

I liked the Nell Gwyn performance by Music Show and think Fallon would like to ride here. Blue Maiden also ran a cracker and seems to have slipped under the radar. She may go to the Irish instead so the non runner no bet concession is essential here.

Canford Cliffs was beaten fair and square by Dick Turpin and so the latter looks at least more fairly priced, especially with Ryan Moore up. Inler appeals at the price too.


Music Show 6/1 and Inler 16/1 £10 win double
Music Show 6/1 and Dick Turpin £10 win double
Blue Maiden 25/1 and Inler 16/1 £7.50 ew double
Blue Maiden 25/1 and Dick Turpin 16/1 £7.50 ew double.


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Saturday 24th April

I've thought of a "fund" for this dormant blog.

Trading is going slowly but safely. It's a dull process though and I've been finding myself doing more "get rich quick" bets to accompany the grind.

I may as well make them a regular post on here. Of course these are "left-field" big price bets - hitting one out of the ballpark - and as such there are going to be stupefying losing runs. Still, you may be able to pick out some nuggets.

Today's swing and misses:

Spurs 6/1+ ("Draw no bet" may be a better option for a proper bet. Or the Asians. I'll lay Man Utd for trading purposes. 6/1 is too big though).

Portsmouth 6/1+ (Also too big on ratings. Team news would be imperative before a proper bet, and again "draw no bet" or asians may be safer approach).

Carlisle 7/1+ (The RP odds compilers football league is always of interest. Two of the compilers nap this in an attempt to land the title)

Oh Crick 4/1+ (Interesting trading possibility, given Twist Magic may not start, and there's a chance a few will cut their throats up front).

Nostringsattached 12/1 (I have this ante post at 25/1. Shame I also have a non runner at 25/1! Pricewise has forced him into 12s and lower now.)

Glass harmonium 4/1 (Another Stoute horse to improve like fine wine? Not interested in actual bet at the prices though)


15 x £2 doubles
The three football matches £10 treble returning £3k+
The three horses £10 treble returning £3k+
Six-fold £1 returning £100k+
And I'll throw £4 at the Scoop6

£55 staked.

Saturday 10th April

With our golfers going along so well, I'm not sure I need to top up on my National Horses.

The other races are attractive and I've done some hit and hope doubles - mainly on Northern horses - which I'll share instead:

Noble Alan
Quewetwo
Au Courant
Leslingtaylor
Tale of Tanganyka

Thursday 8th April

My get rich quick doubles for the weekend's big events:
Kim/Poulter/Casey
doubled with
Dream Alliance/Maljimar/Hallo Bud

As for the Masters - the last time Tiger Woods was 6/1 was the 2006 Open. I remember it well because everyone was against him, and we made a small killing. I'll aim to do the same again.

Then I'll fritter away money on the likes of Kevin Na!


Today at Aintree.

Nick Mordin is all over Possol today. Can't see it myself, but he has made me think the place portion of the each way, or betting without Big Bucks, or the bottom half of a forecast might have some legs, with a weak field outside the favourite.

I can miss Imperial Commander and Pigeon Island at the prices (and Barizan) having filled my boots last time. The one horse I will give one last chance to at big odds is Pistolet Noir in the last, though Nick Williams does look to have done a good bit of business there! Speaking of him, I'll stay with Me Voici.

Saturday 3rd April

I see Kevin Pullein has stolen my thunder this morning, but when I looked at Man Utd's price last night I had to rub my eyes.

How important is Wayne Rooney to them?

That's about all you need to decide today. United have gone from 5/4 to better than 7/4 on his absence. And with "draw no bet" (or 0 Asian) from around 1.55 to 1.9.

Personally, I don't think any player is worth anything like 10 percentage points...

Tuesday 30th March

Bordeaux at Evens to qualify looks too big.

It looks priced on Lyon's reputation rather than the form of the last couple of years.

I only hope that doesn't preface another 7-1 scoreline tonight!

Saturday 27th March

It's been a strange week for me. After Cheltenham's riches I seemed to take my eye off the "trading" ball, and only luck has saved me from seriously frittering away some hard work.

I'm busy this weekend and the break should allow me to refocus on the more mundane lifestyle of a trader.

As left-field bets go, this is up there. How about all the big three to lose today? Hardly likely I know, but the games look harder than the prices imply and none of them have been immune from dropping cheap points this season. You can get over 500/1 the treble.

As for the Lincoln, no idea as ever, and I'm determined to ditch heritage handicaps from my portfolio. Penitent does seem to skew the market a touch though and I'd rather have three or four running for me at the same price as he is - so my darts fall on horses on - Prime Exhibit, Mull of Killough and Tiger Reigns.



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Saturday 20th March

Well that was a fun week! Back to the trading today...


Birmingham continue to be underrated. To be honest this match has draw written all over it. I think that's the way I'll play it, keeping 0-0 well on-side early doors also.


Get rich quick at Uttoxeter.
Three horses favourably mentioned in my notebook trade at nice looking prices today. It would be rude not to do a small treble!
Sarde 2:05 at 12/1
Helpston 2:40 at 8/1
Fortification 3:15 at 25/1

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Friday 19th March

I've got Imperial Commander and Soldatino at 14s, and am happy with that.

If you're looking for a couple of off-the-wall bets how about a couple of 33/1 shots.

Barwell Bridge shouldn't be good enough to win a Triumph, but I'm not sure these are up to much and the ground and pace should be right up his street.

Pigeon Island has look threatening a few this this year (before falling!), and I've had him earmarked for a big handicap - why not the Grand Annual!

Thursday 18th March

All my big bets and ante post tickles fall hopelessly by the wayside, and I was pretty dispirited after the Queen Mum yesterday. Still, that's Cheltenham for you and Spirit River cheered me up soon after.

Not as much as the 90/1 I got on Cue Card though!

Darts day today, and I'll be keeping Ferdy Murphy, Venetia Williams and Emma Lavelle on-side.

Wednesday 17th Cheltenham

Somersby and three other seconds for me yesterday....that would have been me on tilt for the rest of the festival in olden days


(On the other hand my 400/1 on CSKA Moscow is still running!)


Today was supposed to be Weird Al and Kalahari King's day. Hopefully the latter will do better than last year's heart-breaker. I'm on at 14s so have everything crossed.

The other horses I like today are all each way propositions.
Manyriverstocross is my "stable" horse for this year, and this looks the perfect race for him. 33/1 was lovely, 16/1 is still too big.

Knockara Beau was given a terrible ride last time, let him give it a go for the front today and he might sneak a place in a race that's usually carnage incorporated.

Spirit River is another horse looking to uphold Tote Trophy form.

Mix them all up and get rich quick!

Tuesday 16th March

For those who want my get rich quick notions.

Somersby would be my idea of bet of the day, and my pin has come down on Khyber Kim in the Champion.

I'm going to do the double, and then treble them up with these four outsiders (which I'll double with each other and do an ew acc)

Flat Out (hoping he's Ebaziyan mark 2)
New Alco (because I seem to back him every year, and the Ferdy Murphy factor)
Monkerhostin (because he won a proper race recently so only needs to take to the fences to outclass this lot)
Easter Legend (because Emma Lavelle is the new Ferdy Murphy).


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Saturday 13th March

Some possible horses to back to lay shorter in-running:
Knockavella Ayr 3:50 (possible unopposed front runner with solid win chance)
Bowleaze Sand 2:30 (loves track, races prominently)
Aathur Sand 3:05 (travels so strongly)


Birmingham have a terrible record against teams above them and Blackburn have a perfect 0-9 away against teams above them. The compilers seem to have this in mind with their prices this morning and I'd say they've overreacted, as do my ratings. Birmingham should keep things tighter than Hull managed and I'd be a layer of Everton at 6/4. Spurs look to be badly missing Aaron Lennon (not a sentence I ever imagined writing) and Blackburn are slowly improving. 4/9 looks very short for a team that's flopped at home a few times this year.


Fancy an each way double on two big priced horses next week? It's the place element I'm interested in - close to 100/1.

Manyriverstocross in the Neptune 25/1 (I really fancy this horse to be in the mix with the step up in trip to suit and his 3rd in the Tote trophy rock solid).
Carruthers in the Gold Cup 50/1 (66/1 available). Not really a win proposition and will get no soft lead, but this may be a small field come the off and his small field record reads 112111.

I'll post every day of the meeting with similarly inspired/stupid ideas!!

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Saturday 6th March

Refreshed from a few days by the seaside. More refreshed than my wife anyway, who is busy throwing-up all last week's seafood. Only a matter of time before I join her!


Fulham. Always difficult to be objective about your own side, but I priced them at 6/4 for this. And that was before I saw the injury worries Spurs have in midfield. Spurs would be happy with a draw and I'd happily lay them at 6/4.


For get rich quick purposes I'll be looking at stable-horse Ellerslie George (though vibes have this as a prep), and Au Courant (who remains worryingly long considering Pricewise tipped him). Line Artic won't get a better chance at Kempton. And if you want two old-timers to cross your fingers and hope for a bounce back to form at big prices - how about Tot O' Whiskey and Helen's Vision. More likely to be pulled up though!

Saturday 27th February

So my gamble on Miss Mitch disappears down the drain. The prices now look about right. I've got a free bet on Private Be (thanks to Pricewise for once), and will be looking to trade Nacarat assuming he goes clear.


I think Birmingham are slightly too long against Wigan. Their lack of goals at home makes them very appealing for odds compilers to oppose. I'll back them at Evens and cover 0-0.


My going for glory bet this week is terrible value but is definitely going for glory!
Private Be around 12/1
Birmingham 0-0 (no goalscorer) around 8/1
Chelsea 0-0 (no goalscorer) around 12/1
England/Ireland draw around 20/1
Italy/Scotland draw around 20/1
10 silly trebles, and 25p (or whatever breaks the bookie maximum) on the 700,000/1 acc!!

Saturday 20th February

There was an old fashioned reality TV bet last night. Darius 3/1 to beat Bernie Nolan in a straight match. I'd have been close to Evens both. Shame I wasn't back in my old betting days slogging one out of the park!


I like Knockara Beau this afternoon against Burton Port. Granted, the latter has looked impressive beating nothing. but I'll stick to the Weird Al form, and, besides, for trading purposes Knockara Beau will hopefully front run. Corals 9/4 looks closer to the right price than the 11/4 available.

In the unfathomable big race, one way in might be to expect poor runs from all Welsh National horses, and go for the upset. That'll get rid of the 6 faves, so you could lay those 6, or find a couple of unlikely ones (Pomme Tiepy and Oscar Park maybe) or play the forecasts on some of the others.

Saturday 13th February

There's an old-fashioned bet today, but sadly Pricewise has ruined the price for anyone right now. Manyriverstocross should be perfectly suited to the Tote Trophy conditions this afternoon. I've had an old time punt (though sadly not with the ammunition of yesteryear).

He'll also be the cornerstone of some sneaky get rich quick bets.


Strictly on ratings Portsmouth should be more like Evens against Southampton today. Obviously there's good reasons why they're not, but they still seem a silly price to me.

Sunday 7th Feb

Notre Pere looks a backable price today at 5s....

I also remember four years ago Scotland costing me a fortune when they pushed the French pack the length of the field for a famous victory. France were 1.1 that day.

Happy to see Kalahari King and Weird Al finalise their Cheltenham preparations so nicely - looks like Wednesday is going to be my big day this year, not Thursday!

Saturday 6th February

It looks a bumper day's sport doesn't it?

Here's my take on the action.

Liverpool/Everton I'll wait until in-play.

Italy can keep close to Ireland for a bit – I think I'll back them on the half-time handicap and look to lay off in-running for a free bet. Probably worth laying Ireland at 1.03 as well – very little downside after all and just a chance of nice trade.

England/Wales rugby - I think I'll have a small trade on the draw hoping to lay off for a nice free bet, and then re-lay if it gets nailbitingly close, by which time I may have played in the Villa/Spurs game.

Horses. Tchico Polos should charge into a lead at Sandown – based on previous races – so should trade lower than currently, and who knows if he can get Punchestowns at it over the railway fences he could trade very low.

The three horses I'll be playing with him in get rich trebles and acc are
I'msingingtheblues – loves course, probably trading too high because Ruby not riding, yet C Williams usually rides.
Silk Affair – Gerald Delamere has a feel for these races and makes a good case
Lacdoudal – loves the course and whilstit's a love-bet really, this race has the look of an old guard's race.

I'll also keep an eye on Weird Al at Wetherby as he remains my main Sun Alliance horse.

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Saturday 23rd January

I thought it was time to update this page. My new trading career is going OK, not exactly going to get rich with the feeble fund/stakes I'm currently using, but long-term think it's a goer. The main problem I have is I keep on being dragged back to thinking like a gambler, especially on the horses, but I'm getting there.

Obviously it makes it hard to provide much meaningful thoughts on here. However, I am involved in a number of longer-term markets which is something to talk about, and I do still do weekend get rich quick bets. So I'll look to update this Saturdays at least..


Thoughts for today.
Good-looking cards at Ascot and Haydock.
I'll do get rich trebles around two horses who'd be in my cyber stable if I still had one.
Mr Strachan and Ellerslie George.
The three horses I'll perm them with are all cheeky goes at much more fancied horses.
Fix The Rib, Knockara Beau and Cape Tribulation.


Longer-term markets
FA Cup
My approach to this, for the first time in years, has been to go against the big 4, and look at the next most likely (Spurs/Villa/Man City and Fulham). So far, so good, with Man Utd and Liverpool already gone. I traded all bets to leave me with no liability after round three, and have re-invested a few quid on Fulham and Villa on the basis they could trade lower if there are upsets elsewhere, but will look to go back to no liability prior to 5th round draw. (Protecting the bank at all costs is the key mantra these days!).

Premiership
I surfed Man City downwards, but now they're back where they started I'm wondering whether I should do it again, but it's probably pointless. I think Arsenal are flattered to be where they are and are now trading at what could be their lowest point. They are already my biggest red but I'll increase liability to my (modest) maximum ahead of their big games coming up.

African Nations Cup
This has worked well for me so far, and I'm all green bar Ivory Coast. Will fiddle around from now on, and hope Drogba and co fall by the wayside soon.

US Open Tennis
Have a small trade on Safina – that side opening up, will hope a tired Henin falls away, but will look to turn in to a free bet at first sign of danger.
Del Potro was my trading choice on the other side, which isn't looking so healthy!

Celebrity Big Brother
Without watching a second of the show I still look in good shape, no nasty-looking red, and hopefully Nicola or Stephanie can get a late charge in past a fading Vinnie Jones.

Cheltenham
Not much in way of ante post action, as you'd expect, but haven't been able to resist double figures on :
Weird Al in the RSA (hoping Diamond Harry doesn't dot up today!)
Pistolet Noir in the Triumph
Kalahari King in the Queen Mum